California and the January 6th Certification Fight

The Certification Crisis: California’s Missing Certificate of Ascertainment

As the January 6th deadline for certifying the 2024 presidential election looms, an unexpected twist has thrown the process into chaos: California, along with 20 other states, has yet to submit its official Certificate of Ascertainment to the National Archives. This document, which lists the state’s electors and their votes, is a critical step in finalizing the election results. Without it, California’s electoral votes cannot be counted, potentially derailing the entire certification process.

The delay has sparked wild speculation on social media and in political circles. Is this a bureaucratic oversight, a deliberate protest, or something even more dramatic? Could California’s inaction be the first step toward an unprecedented challenge to the election—or even secession?

The Process: How Certification Works

The certification of a presidential election is a multi-step process governed by federal law. Here’s how it’s supposed to work:

1. State Certification: After the election, each state’s governor signs a Certificate of Ascertainment, which lists the winning electors and their votes. This document is then sealed and sent to the National Archives.
2. Electoral College Meeting: On December 14th, the electors meet in their respective states to cast their votes for president and vice president. These votes are recorded in a Certificate of Vote, which is also sent to the National Archives.
3. Congressional Certification: On January 6th, Congress meets to count and certify the electoral votes. If a state has not submitted its Certificate of Ascertainment, its votes cannot be counted.

California’s failure to submit its Certificate of Ascertainment has raised questions about its intentions. Is this a technical delay, or is there something more at play?

The Speculation: A Deliberate Protest?

The delay has led to intense speculation, particularly on social media platforms like TikTok and Twitter. Some believe that California’s inaction is a deliberate protest against the election results, orchestrated by high-profile Democrats like Senator Adam Schiff and Governor Gavin Newsom.

• @PoliticalInsider2025, a TikTok account with over 1 million followers, posted a video titled “Is California Planning a January 6th Showdown?” The video suggests that California’s delay is a strategic move to force a debate over the election’s legitimacy. “If California doesn’t certify its votes, it could throw the entire process into chaos,” they said.
• @ElectionWatch, another TikTok creator, speculated that California might be preparing to object to the certification of electoral votes for Donald Trump. “This could be the ultimate protest,” they said in a video that has been viewed over 1.5 million times.

The Extreme Scenario: Could California Secede?

The delay has also reignited discussions about California secession, a long-standing idea among some progressives and independence advocates. While secession is legally dubious and politically fraught, the current crisis has given the idea new life.

• Economic Powerhouse: If California were a country, it would now have the 3rd largest economy in the world, surpassing Germany. Its GDP of over $3.7 trillion is driven by industries like technology, entertainment, and agriculture.
• Population and Influence: With nearly 40 million residents, California is the most populous state in the U.S. Its cultural and political influence is unmatched, making it a global leader in innovation and progressive policies.
• Legal Hurdles: Secession would face significant legal challenges. The U.S. Constitution does not provide a mechanism for states to leave the Union, and the Supreme Court ruled in Texas v. White (1869) that secession is unconstitutional.

Despite these hurdles, the idea of Calexit has gained traction in recent years, particularly in response to Trump’s Project 2025, a controversial agenda that critics say threatens democratic norms and civil liberties.

The Role of Adam Schiff and Gavin Newsom

Senator Adam Schiff and Governor Gavin Newsom have been vocal critics of Donald Trump and his policies. Some speculate that they could use the certification delay as a platform to challenge the election results or even push for greater autonomy for California.

• Adam Schiff: As a leading figure in the Democratic Party, Schiff has been a staunch defender of democracy and the rule of law. In a recent interview with The Los Angeles Times, he said, “We cannot allow this election to be stolen. Every vote must be counted, and every voice must be heard.”
• Gavin Newsom: Newsom has also been a vocal critic of Trump, often positioning California as a counterweight to the federal government. In a tweet, he said, “California will not be silenced. We will fight for our values and our future.”

The Legal Framework: Can States Refuse to Certify?

The delay raises important legal questions about the certification process. Can a state refuse to certify its electoral votes? And what happens if it does?

• Federal Law: Under the Electoral Count Act of 1887, states are required to submit their Certificates of Ascertainment to the National Archives. Failure to do so could result in legal challenges and congressional intervention.
• Congressional Discretion: If a state fails to certify its votes, Congress has the authority to decide whether to count them. This could lead to a contentious debate on January 6th, with Democrats and Republicans clashing over the legitimacy of the election.

The Bigger Picture: A Nation Divided

The delay in California’s certification is a symptom of the deep divisions and heightened tensions in American politics. Whether it’s a bureaucratic delay, a political protest, or something more extreme, the situation underscores the fragility of the electoral process and the challenges facing American democracy.

As @FutureOfDemocracy put it in a TikTok video, “We’re living in uncharted territory. The decisions we make in the coming weeks could shape the future of this country for generations.”

The Movie “Civil War”: A Fictional Parallel

The recent movie “Civil War”, starring Kirsten Dunst, has added fuel to the speculation. The film depicts a fictional scenario where California and Texas join forces in a “Western Alliance” to counter a Trump-like administration in Washington, D.C. While the movie is a work of fiction, it has sparked real-world discussions about the potential for political fragmentation and secession.

• Plot Summary: In the movie, the Western Alliance is formed in response to authoritarian policies and government overreach. California and Texas, despite their political differences, unite to protect their autonomy and values.
• Real-World Parallels: The film’s premise resonates with current tensions, particularly in California, where frustration with federal policies has fueled calls for greater independence.

Idle Speculation? Perhaps

The delay in California’s certification is a wake-up call. It highlights the potential for political fragmentation and the challenges facing American democracy. Whether it’s a bureaucratic delay, a political protest, or something more extreme, the situation underscores the need for vigilance, transparency, and accountability.

As we navigate this brave new world, one thing is clear: The future of the United States depends on our ability to address these challenges and uphold the principles of democracy.

References and Further Reading:

• TikTok Discussions: @PoliticalInsider2025
• The Electoral Count Act of 1887 (Congress.gov)
• California’s GDP: Economic Powerhouse (World Bank)
• Texas v. White: The Legality of Secession (SCOTUS)
• Yes California: The Calexit Movement (YesCalifornia.org)
• Movie “Civil War”: A Fictional Parallel (IMDb)