On January 23, 2025, California Secretary of State Dr. Shirley N. Weber announced that a new ballot initiative has been cleared to begin gathering signatures. The measure, proposed by Fresno-based activist Marcus Evans, seeks to place the following question on the November 2028 ballot: “I Should California leave the United States and become a free and independent country?” If at least 50% of registered voters participate and 55% vote “yes,” it would constitute a “vote of no confidence in the United States of America” and an “expression of the will of the people of California” to pursue independence.
While the measure would not immediately alter California’s government or its relationship with the U.S., it would create a commission to study the state’s viability as an independent nation. The commission, funded with $10 million in one-time costs and $2 million annually, would report its findings by 2028.
This is not the first time California has flirted with secession. The so-called “Calexit” movement gained traction after Donald Trump’s 2016 election, but it failed to gather enough signatures. Now, with Trump back in the White House, proponents argue that the political climate is ripe for another attempt. Evans, the initiative’s proponent, stated, “We believe that now is the best time to Calexit—NOW we are better situated to make Calexit happen than in 2016”.
California’s potential independence is not just a political question—it’s an economic one. With a GDP of $3.7 trillion, California is the fifth-largest economy in the world, surpassing the United Kingdom and India. The state is home to Silicon Valley, Hollywood, and the nation’s largest agricultural sector. Its ports handle nearly 40% of U.S. imports, and its tech industry drives global innovation.
However, independence would come with significant challenges. California relies on federal funding for infrastructure, disaster relief, and social programs. It would also need to establish its own military, currency, and international trade agreements. Critics argue that these hurdles make independence impractical, while supporters point to California’s economic strength as evidence of its self-sufficiency.
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Reactions and Commentary: A Divided State
The initiative has sparked fierce debate. Proponents argue that California’s progressive values are at odds with the federal government, particularly under Trump’s leadership. “Californians did not put their full faith and trust behind the Calexit option in 2016. Now it is 2024, and Trump is back, and he will come with even more tools and skill and supporters than last time,” wrote the Calexit group in a November 2024 statement.
Opponents, however, warn of chaos. Legal experts note that the U.S. Constitution does not provide a mechanism for state secession. In 1869, the Supreme Court ruled that states cannot unilaterally leave the Union, meaning California’s independence would require a constitutional amendment approved by two-thirds of Congress and 38 states.
Public opinion is similarly divided. While some Californians see independence as a way to escape federal policies they oppose, others fear the economic and social consequences. A recent poll found that 45% of Californians support exploring independence, but only 28% believe it is a realistic goal.
Speculative Scenarios: What If California Succeeds?
If the measure passes, the repercussions could be profound—and not just for California. Here are some speculative scenarios:
1. A Pacific Republic?
Some have proposed that California, Oregon, and Washington form a new nation, often dubbed the “Pacific Republic.” These states share progressive values, economic ties, and a coastline that could serve as a strategic asset. However, such a union would face the same legal and logistical challenges as California’s solo bid.
2. A Canadian Merger?
In a surprising twist, Canadian Green Party leader Elizabeth May has jokingly invited California, Oregon, and Washington to join Canada as new provinces. “Maybe California would like to be the 11th province. How about it? California? Oregon? Washington?” she quipped during a recent press conference. While her comments were made in jest, they highlight the growing ties between the West Coast and Canada, particularly on issues like healthcare and climate policy.
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3. Economic Fallout
California’s independence could destabilize the U.S. economy. The state contributes nearly 15% of the nation’s GDP, and its departure would leave a massive hole in federal revenues. Conversely, California would need to negotiate trade deals, establish a new currency, and address its $31 billion budget deficit.
4. A New Cold War?
If California were to secede, it could strain U.S.-California relations, particularly if the new nation pursued policies at odds with Washington. For example, California’s strict environmental regulations and progressive social policies could clash with federal priorities, leading to diplomatic tensions.
Bold Vision or a Pipe Dream?
The 2028 Calexit initiative represents a bold—and controversial—vision for California’s future. While the state’s economic strength and progressive values make it a compelling candidate for independence, the legal, logistical, and political obstacles are immense.
As Marcus Evans and his supporters begin gathering signatures, the debate over California’s future will only intensify. Whether the measure passes or fails, it underscores the deep divisions within the state—and the nation—over the direction of American democracy.