Starbucks on Tuesday reported a 31% increase in profits during the final three months of 2021, but the massive Seattle-based coffee chain nevertheless announced plans to further hike prices this year, drawing outrage from critics who say the company is pushing higher costs onto consumers to pad its bottom line.
“Corporations are jacking up prices on consumers and using concerns about inflation as cover to do so.”
Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson—who saw his compensation soar by 39% to $20.4 million in 2021—told investors during the company’s earnings call Tuesday that “supply-chain disruptions” and rising labor costs are to blame for the coming price increases, of which he suggested there will be several.
“We have additional pricing actions planned through the balance of this year, which play an important role to mitigate cost pressures including inflation,” said Johnson, who also touted the company’s “strong revenue growth” in the quarter.
Starbucks’ revenue grew to $8.1 billion at the tail-end of 2021, a 19% jump compared to the previous year.
To progressive observers, Starbucks’ announcement of price hikes fits a pattern of U.S. corporations—in sectors across the economy—raising costs for consumers while raking in record profits, boosting executive pay, and squeezing regular employees. Starbucks employees nationwide are increasingly fighting back against their low wages and poor working conditions by launching union drives.
Historian Andy Lewis argued that Starbucks’ explanation for the impending price increases amounts to nothing more than “word salad to hide corporate greed.”
The consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, for its part, responded with outrage to Starbucks increasing prices for customers after giving its CEO a nearly 40% raise last year.
During testimony before the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Wednesday, Rakeen Mabud of the Groundwork Collaborative noted that “in sector after sector, in company after company, corporations are jacking up prices on consumers and using concerns about inflation as cover to do so.”
“We see that in Kimberly-Clark taking advantage of the pandemic to raise prices on masks,” the economist said. “We see Proctor & Gamble using the fact that they sell essential goods that families depend on like diapers to raise prices in this moment of crisis. And we even see companies like McDonald’s raising prices on consumers even as they enjoy massive increases in sales.”
“So in short,” Mabud added, “this is a really broad-based problem—it’s unfortunately not limited to a specific sector of the economy.”
Originally published on Common Dreams by JAKE JOHNSON and republished under a Creative Commons license (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)
Bond jump should have been seen coming, yet the reaction is nevertheless a big rush to the exits
In what some are calling a Taper Tantrum, the markets dropped with a sense of purpose today, with little bounce after the close in the futures market. With Fed rate hikes now a certainty, inflation concerns real, and bond yields spiking today, there were plenty of things to point to as catalysts.
This could be, and this is extremely likely regardless of what endless permanent-bull commentators would have you believe, the start of a tough two months, with late September and October being known as a very dangerous time in markets, especially whey they exhibit pre-crash signs and warnings.
Insane valuations that have preceded past September / October disasters are back
It’s unbelievable that the fall of 2008, when the financial crisis came to a head with the Lehman Brothers collapse, was 13 years ago, and the prior peak in November 2007 was a full 14 years.
I guess we can observe that we now have the iPhone 13, with the iPhone “1” which was just called “iPhone” at the time, has been marking the time with yearly iterations, not always named in sequence:
iPhone: June 29, 2007
iPhone 3G: July 11, 2008
iPhone 3GS: June 19, 2009
iPhone 4: June 24, 2010
iPhone 4S: October 14, 2011
iPhone 5: September 21, 2012
iPhone 5S & 5C: September 20, 2013
iPhone 6 & 6 Plus: September 19, 2014
iPhone 6S & 6S Plus: September 19, 2015
iPhone 7 & 7 Plus: September 16, 2016
iPhone 8 & 8 Plus: September 22, 2017
iPhone XS, XS Max: September 21, 2018
iPhone 11, Pro, Pro Max: September 20, 2019
iPhone 12, Mini, Pro, Pro Max: October 23, 2020
iPhone 13, Mini, Pro, Pro Max, September 24, 2021
And during all these years, for the most part the artificially inflated Fed “bubble of everything” has continued.
Here is a disturbing chart, courtesy of Elliott wave International at Elliottwave.com:
This behavior, seen across nearly all markets since extreme measures were taken to respond when the March 2020 pandemic crash occurred, has been building to a crescendo. And today was a tiny pin-prick that could augur ill for October.
What this has led to, naturally, is an overvaluation beyond anything seen in modern times, perhaps 500 years. The previous all-time-peak for overvalued stocks (S&P) was in March 2000. August 2021 is far beyond that peak and likely will stand as the most overvalued moment for decades.
Unless, that is, somehow the insane valuations are pushed even higher. Which is unlikely, but not impossible, given the state of delusional euphoria that pervades the financial markets.
Many 2021 characteristics, such as the Crypto, NFT frenzy will be seen in a similar light to the tech stocks in 2000 or Real estate in 2007
There’s a sense that it is normal for bored apes NFTs to experience a multimillion dollar bidding wars, or for crypto alt coins with dog mascots to explode 10,000% or more during this, possibly final phase, of what has been called the “everything bubble”.
And why not? If you bought and held almost anything in March 2009 or again at the bottom of the crash on March 16, 2020, then you have seen nearly continuous gains that you’d be eager to risk on, well, anything.
And if you were 10 years old in the year 2000, you’d not have known about NASDAQ drops that take around 13 years to regain what was lost after a 1 year bear market, so why worry?
Perhaps the Fed and the markets seemingly infinite ability to expand and inflate will go on for years. Or the next bear, possibly the one that already kicked off today, and will accelerate into October, is one to take seriously.
Odd facts that illustrate the world today where Elon Musk says BitCoin is “less dumb” than cash. He’s right. Cash also known a “fiat currency” is a piece of paper with a promise to pay on demand nothing in exchange when presented.
It does have a legal framework behind it, meaning you go to jail if you try to use your own version. There’s that.
The Tesla CEO said that investing in Bitcoin is a “less dumb form of liquidity than cash” after his company bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency.
“To be clear, I am not an investor, I am an engineer,” he said on Twitter. “I don’t even own any publicly traded stock besides Tesla.”
The idea that Tesla and other companies are having concerns over the stability of cash, and concerns over the effectively negative interest rates in the mean time is clear.
Bitcoin may not be a solution that will be permitted by the Government (think gold in 1934). But a reckoning is a-comin’ and it will get interesting.
There is no doubt that Elon Musk is a genius who is doing great things. Perhaps it is his genius for finance that is most underestimated, however, considering his funding success throughout the years.
Some stats:
Regulatory Credits, aka, Carbon Tax credits, as per CNN:
It’s a lucrative business for Tesla — bringing in $3.3 billion over the course of the last five years, nearly half of that in 2020 alone. The $1.6 billion in regulatory credits it received last year far outweighed Tesla’s net income of $721 million — meaning Tesla would have otherwise posted a net loss in 2020.
“Based on our calculations, we estimate that Tesla so far has made roughly $1 billion of profit [on Bitcoin holdings] over the last month…To put this in perspective, Tesla is on a trajectory to make more from its Bitcoin investments than profits from selling its EVs in all of 2020…” source: Wedbush’s analyst Dan Ives
SpaceX income in U.S. Gov contracts and subsidies:
LA times estimated that already by 2015 Various Musk led businesses took in over 4.9 billion in government income:
“Tesla Motors Inc., SolarCity Corp. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, together have benefited from an estimated $4.9 billion in government support, according to data compiled by The Times. The figure underscores a common theme running through his emerging empire: a public-private financing model underpinning long-shot start-ups.” – LA Times
“The research note titled SpaceX: Raising Valuation Scenarios Following Key Developments, listed the company’s recent $1.9 billion funding round and the “continued momentum in winning government contracts” (mainly from NASA and the U.S Department of Defense) as key reasons for its revision of SpaceX’s value. The note doesn’t bother to mention important financial details like SpaceX’s current revenue or estimated revenue for 2020 or even 2021. Or whether SpaceX is profitable or not.”
According to @elonmusk "Bitcoin is almost as BS as fiat money." So Musk regards both #Bitcoin and fiat as BS. I agree, I just think Bitcoin, which is digital fiat, is even more BS than the paper fiat issued by central banks. #Gold is not BS. It's real money and better than both!
Right now, the best movies on the financial crises of 2008 and 2000 and stock trading in general are all trending on the streaming rental market, since they are nearly impossible to find on subscription based platforms such as Netflix, HBO Max, Disney +, etc.
As a result, paid views have skyrocketed, for example, on iTunes, where “The Big Short” is #3 and “Wolf on Wall Street” is #4
This surge applies to other films such as the excellent ‘Boiler Room” with Giovanni Ribisi. The films are all excellent and worth paying for if the chaotic craze with huge money gained and lost with GameStop, AMC and the whole Reddit, Robinhood brouhaha has you curious to learn more about the financial markets.
Click to buy “The Big Short” and help Lynxotic and all Independent Local Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
The reality is sinking in, slowly, that the future is truly unknowable and that big changes and even bigger challenges are looming. Twin shocks of a health emergency and a financial crisis, intertwined and yet with separate trajectories, are still to be resolved in our near future.
And then there’s the myriad of other challenges that were already acute, such as global warming and the “other” epidemic; corruption and greed. It’s almost too much to face up to, and no one can be blamed for wanting to just turn away.
Too much has been glossed over. After the 2008 crisis we all just wanted to put that ugly mess behind us and get on with our lives. I suppose the criminals that netted billions as a “reward” for almost destroying the entire global economy were also eager to just move on.
All that as it may be, perhaps, a way to begin the process of regaining our courage and looking into the future with some kind of hope, or at least a deeper understanding of the human dilemma and historical precedents, might be to enjoy films about small moments of triumph before great adversity. Here are a few recent options:
Barely 12 years ago, the financial collapse and ensuing “Great Recession” was a nightmare scenario. The aftermath of that debacle is also a contributor to the economic dangers we see before us in 2020. This film, likely the best based on that era, highlights how outsiders and misfits were able to prosper, even as they witnessed the corruption, failure and systemic injustice that brought the world to the brink of total economic chaos.
Starring: Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt.
Want know more about shorting? About the shady and complicated scams? And also see an incredible film?
‘Wolf of Wall Street’:
The Wolf of wall street is simply a great movie. It’s even better though if you watch it in the context of stock market mania. Just like the one that’s happening now.
Beyond the fact that the story is incredibly entertaining it does also get into the heart of the “pump & dump” boiler room mentality. While the so called ‘retail investors” who are riding the Robinhood stock purchasing app to what they see as well deserved revenge on Wall Street, and Belfort who was the real life “Wolf of Wall Street” was more of a wannabe that couldn’t get into the establishment.
He then set forth, with chutzpa and insanity and some drugs, built his own criminal empire, there are some very clear correlations between his tricks that made him rich and what the short-squeezing Reddit & Wall Street Bets chat room vigilantes are doing right now.
Can we all be like the guys, Jordan Belfort or Michael Burry, who was played by Christian Bale in the movie, and even though it was about going short, it’s sill ok, cause, Christian Bale?
History does exist, even if it happened before your uncle was born
Up until 1934 many things were legal and rampant that today, technically, are not allowed. Insider Trading is the most obvious and best defined, look up Martha Stewart and jail time if you want to know more about that.
Collusion in the market is another less well known practice, also known as “pump & dump” that has as many variations as Ponzi schemes and, though illegal, will never be stamped out. The technical terms for Colluding in relation to stock trading are “securities fraud” or “market manipulation.”
Not to get technical but here’s an partial excerpt of the legal specifics:
15 U.S. Code § 78i – Manipulation of security prices
(a) – (2 To effect, alone or with 1 or more other persons, a series of transactions in any security registered on a national securities exchange, any security not so registered, or in connection with any security-based swap or security-based swap agreement with respect to such security creating actual or apparent active trading in such security, or raising or depressing the price of such security, for the purpose of inducing the purchase or sale of such security by others.
Click to buy “Antrhopocene” and at the same time help Lynxotic and All Independent Local Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
For a bird’s-eye overview and scientific perspective – Athropocene is a film for those ready to think deeply on how, once beyond the immediate danger, we would want to emerge into a new era as a species. A positive reaction to the current crisis, worldwide, has been a series of ideas and proposals that show a willingness to confront the challenges from an entirely new perspective. Maybe new leadership can mean starting over and making a pledge to try a new approach to literally everything.
‘The film follows the research of an international body of scientists, the Anthropocene Working Group who, after nearly 10 years of research, argue that the Holocene Epoch gave way to the Anthropocene Epoch in the mid-twentieth century as a result of profound and lasting human changes to the Earth.”
Cinderella Man
This Depression era feel-good story takes on new meaning as we see a “Great Depression II” potentially looming. Looking for strength and courage facing forces that threaten our survival, and coming out at the end in a better place, that’s a synopsis and blueprint we can all benefit from observing, even if it’s packaged as a Hollywood vehicle. Russel Crowe at his best. Maybe worth a second look.
Want know more about shorting? About the shady and complicated scams? And also see an incredible film?
The Wolf of wall street is simply a great movie. It’s even better though if you watch it in the context of stock market mania. Just like the one that’s happening now.
Beyond the fact that the story is incredibly entertaining it does also get into the heart of the “pump & dump” boiler room mentality. While the so called ‘retail investors” who are riding the Robinhood stock purchasing app to what they see as well deserved revenge on Wall Street, and Belfort who was the real life “Wolf of Wall Street” was more of a wannabe that couldn’t get into the establishment. He then set forth, with chutzpa and insanity and some drugs, built his own criminal empire, there are some very clear correlations between his tricks that made him rich and what the short-squeezing Reddit & Wall Street Bets chat room vigilantes are doing right now.
Can we all be like the guys, Jordan Belfort or Michael Burry, who was played by Christian Bale in the movie, and even though it was about going short, it’s sill ok, cause, Christian Bale?
History does exist, even if it happened before your uncle was born
Up until 1934 many things were legal and rampant that today, technically, are not allowed. Insider Trading is the most obvious and best defined, look up Martha Stewart and jail time if you want to know more about that.
Collusion in the market is another less well known practice, also known as “pump & dump” that has as many variations as Ponzi schemes and, though illegal, will never be stamped out. The technical terms for Colluding in relation to stock trading are “securities fraud” or “market manipulation.”
Not to get technical but here’s an partial excerpt of the legal specifics:
15 U.S. Code § 78i – Manipulation of security prices
(a) – (2 To effect, alone or with 1 or more other persons, a series of transactions in any security registered on a national securities exchange, any security not so registered, or in connection with any security-based swap or security-based swap agreement with respect to such security creating actual or apparent active trading in such security, or raising or depressing the price of such security, for the purpose of inducing the purchase or sale of such security by others.
The reality is sinking in, slowly, that the future is truly unknowable and that big changes and even bigger challenges are looming. Twin shocks of a health emergency and a financial crisis, intertwined and yet with separate trajectories, are still to be resolved in our near future.
Click to buy “The Big Short” and at the same time help Lynxotic and All Independent Local Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
And then there’s the myriad of other challenges that were already acute, such as global warming and the “other” epidemic; corruption and greed. It’s almost too much to face up to, and no one can be blamed for wanting to just turn away.
Too much has been glossed over. After the 2008 crisis we all just wanted to put that ugly mess behind us and get on with our lives. I suppose the criminals that netted billions as a “reward” for almost destroying the entire global economy were also eager to just move on.
All that as it may be, perhaps, a way to begin the process of regaining our courage and looking into the future with some kind of hope, or at least a deeper understanding of the human dilemma and historical precedents, might be to enjoy films about small moments of triumph before great adversity. Here are a few recent options:
Barely 12 years ago, the financial collapse and ensuing “Great Recession” was a nightmare scenario. The aftermath of that debacle is also a contributor to the economic dangers we see before us in 2020. This film, likely the best based on that era, highlights how outsiders and misfits were able to prosper, even as they witnessed the corruption, failure and systemic injustice that brought the world to the brink of total economic chaos.
Starring: Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt.
Click to buy “Antrhopocene” and at the same time help Lynxotic and All Independent Local Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
For a bird’s-eye overview and scientific perspective – Athropocene is a film for those ready to think deeply on how, once beyond the immediate danger, we would want to emerge into a new era as a species. A positive reaction to the current crisis, worldwide, has been a series of ideas and proposals that show a willingness to confront the challenges from an entirely new perspective. Maybe new leadership can mean starting over and making a pledge to try a new approach to literally everything.
‘The film follows the research of an international body of scientists, the Anthropocene Working Group who, after nearly 10 years of research, argue that the Holocene Epoch gave way to the Anthropocene Epoch in the mid-twentieth century as a result of profound and lasting human changes to the Earth.”
Facing death constantly is a reality in war times. This story is a testament to resilience and survival against all odds.
Angelina Jolie directs this adaptation from Laura Hillenbrand’s popular book, “Unbroken” stars Jack O’Connell, Domhnall Gleeson, Alex Russell, Miyavi and Finn Wittrock
Cinderella Man
This Depression era feel-good story takes on new meaning as we see a “Great Depression II” potentially looming. Looking for strength and courage facing forces that threaten our survival, and coming out at the end in a better place, that’s a synopsis and blueprint we can all benefit from observing, even if it’s packaged as a Hollywood vehicle. Russel Crowe at his best. Maybe worth a second look.
Click to buy “Unbroken” and at the same time help Lynxotic and All Independent Local Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
Confusing? Yea, but at the bottom it all it’s just…(parody)
It you have followed any of the unfolding madness with the “retail investors” and the revolution of unstoppable market manipulation that is heroic, not criminal cause, um, the other guys (Wall Street) are much more criminal.
The problem is, it’s all true! Yes, the idea that pumping up GameStop, which is basically a random stock that was cheap and easy to pump. This is basically making a mockery of the traditional idea of investing and of the laws against stock manipulation. But the market is, as so many are pointing out, basically a sham already.
A lot is made of the bad and nasty “shorts” who think that, just because GameStop is a company with basically no future prospects, they think the price would like, do down. Strange. That’s ok though, we can pump it up and the squeeze force the shorty shorts to cover (buy back shares) and that will send the price soaring.
short shorts by Tesla
Then we can all be like the Wolf of Wall Street, Jordan Belfort and also totally like The “Big Short” guy, Michael Burry, who was played by Christian Bale in the movie, and even though it was about going short, it’s sill ok, cause, Christian Bale.
2008 was bad and done by very bad people that got away with it
And yes, it’s pretty much all a nasty business. But the nasty pros are the worst. And the whole system is a sham. And, anyway 2008. Right. Maybe this is like occupy Wall Street but for real. Occupy it literally inside of the market. Where they live.
So, in a nutshell it’s a mockery of a sham. And a travesty. So it’s a mockery of a sham and a travesty.
Seriously., though, perhaps pumping cheap stocks from around 5-10$ up to $500 or higher by coordinated buying executed by internet mobs should be made legal. Each “investor” can jump in and out where-ever they choose and daisy-chain into the wealth that dreams are made of.
Universal basic is basically good, really good
Perhaps this can be the new government stimulus plan. Give every citizen a “free” stock buying app like Robinhood (but a new one cause we all hate those guys now) and have each account pre-loaded with, say, $1000.
Then let everyone know that it’s ok to join Reddit groups or watch TikTok stock market gurus and everyone, like a swarm of locusts can just pump a stock up to the moon and then sell and crash it and move on to the next one.
Naturally, it will be necessary to always start with a stock that is cheap so the early buyers can get really, really rich when the stock (who care what company it is, right?) goes up around 32,000% is, say, a week. That’d be good.
I am looking for how this casino of the common man would be worse that the current system, and it’s hard to find a flaw. Maybe read a book? Naw, just buy and buy and get rich with stonks forever. Amen.
Lots of confusion on all sides. There’s an internet storm brewing over the “injustice” of various entities – a ridiculous “free” trading app called, of all things “Robinhood”, the hedge funds who shorted an obviously overvalued stock. The army of short-squeezers who are screaming bloody murder that they were not able to cash in at the top (or commit Hari-kari by buying more the higher it goes).
And then every pundit in the world sounding off – all the outrage and chaos with Ted Cruz & AOC & Elon Musk & Chris Cuomo & Mark Cuban and probably every celebrity in the world going nuts all at once by tomorrow and all sounding off like crazy over the “injustice”. Shake it up and shake in down.
The sheer volume of confusion over the “Robinhood Revolution” is staggering. Just wait it will be much, much worse. The depth of the ignorance is truly monumental.
Interactive Brokers has put AMC, BB, EXPR, GME, and KOSS option trading into liquidation only due to the extraordinary volatility in the markets. In addition, long stock positions will require 100% margin and short stock positions will require 300% margin until further notice.
Are there bad guys on “Wall Street”? Plenty. Are the google guys day traders that bid up a worthless stock to “burn” hedge funds and get rich quick heroes? Please.
And an App hilariously named “Robinhood” that charge phantom fees rather than stated charges (low, high or whatever) does no “stealing from the rich” and sure as hell no “giving to the poor”.
They told me that the we live in free market capitalist society
They told me:
– Markets are free – Healthy competition is promoted – The same rules apply to everyone – Deck is not stacked against the little guy
Traders and “Wall Street Insiders” know that danger is real. The idea of protecting “retail traders” from risk? As they tap into credit cards to buy worthless stocks that they believe they have a right to pump & dump?
I'm sorry, but if you're gonna freak out when your users start robbing the rich, you can't call yourself "Robin Hood." pic.twitter.com/WwPkO6qdDt
And are they good guys cause they should be able to push the price of a stock endlessly higher for no reason whatsoever except that they get off on the letters from the ticker symbols that happen to sound similar to the ticker for a stock that Elon Musk did a two word tweet about (Signal, etc)?
I accidentally bought 13000 shares of #dogecoin while I was at the gym cause Robinhood froze on me so I didn’t think the order went through. Doubled my money in an hour. First good thing Robinhood ever did for me.
Collusion and getting rich for doing basically nothing should be something that is available to everyone because criminals have gotten away with it left right and center?
Probably best not to name your company or organization or non-profit some form of Robin Hood
Short sellers and now Robinhood are getting critics of all stripes
Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote in a series of tweets Thursday a litany of anti-short thoughts, punctuated with “get shorty”. Also said he “absolutely” agrees with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY., that the House Financial Services Committee should launch an investigation into Robinhood because of stock trade restrictions that were put into place by the online app-based brokerage related to GameStop.
Always a master of viral expression, Musk famously marketed “short-shorts” as a dig at short sellers that he felt were unfairly targeting volatile Tesla stock moves. In the end, at least so far, he has always had the last laugh.
u can’t sell houses u don’t own u can’t sell cars u don’t own but u *can* sell stock u don’t own!? this is bs – shorting is a scam legal only for vestigial reasons
Robinhood is blocking “investors” from initiating new positions in GameStop, AMC Entertainment Holdings, American Airlines, BlackBerry Ltd., Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., Express Inc., Koss Corp., Naked Brand Group, Nokia Corp, Trivago, and Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. They are only permitting them to sell existing holdings. Margin requirements were also increased for various securities.
The actions likely have a two-fold justification, based on the situation. To protect Robinhood from litigation in the even, which is likely, that the stock will collapse and many novice “investors” will get hurt, and ostensibly, to protect the investors themselves.
Rep. Ocasio-Cortez stated: “We now need to know more about @RobinhoodApp’s decision to block retail investors from purchasing stock while hedge funds are freely able to trade the stock as they see fit.” And then added: As a member of the Financial Services Cmte, I’d support a hearing if necessary.
Here come the shorty apologists Give them no respect Get Shorty
The story that won’t stop and the very fine people on all sides
No heroes, plenty of villains and lots and lots of nonsense and stupidity. But before getting into the nuts and bolts of this tragic “new” phenomena, take a second and think about all those media stories, in nearly every online media outlet, even hitting local news.
Each “take” on the story has a different slant and spin and almost none go into the boring and complex technical details of stock trading schemes. Most, it appears, are cheering on, implicitly, the “main street” buyers in an imaginary “war” on Wall Street.
[Disclaimer: Nothing in this article should be construed as legal or financial advice.]
That will get you more clicks.
A few will point out that GameStop, the company that is, which has no real prospect to rise from its comatose state into a Tesla-like world beater, regardless of how high the stock climbs for a few weeks or so.
And they will, rightly, warn that in this game, the “innocent” main street “investor” will lose in the end. Those are the boring stories. Not as many clicks for them.
The longer more accurate story of what is going on touches on the Great Depression, the Dot-com bubble, the financial crisis of 2008 and an understanding of stock trading that goes beyond the patience threshold of the general public and the media, even beyond most so-called Wall Street Insiders.
History does exist, even if it happened before your uncle was born
Up until 1934 many things were legal and rampant that today, technically, are not allowed. Insider Trading is the most obvious and best defined, look up Martha Stewart and jail time if you want to know more about that.
Collusion in the market is another less well known practice, also known as “pump & dump” that has as many variations as Ponzi schemes and, though illegal, will never be stamped out. The technical terms for Colluding in relation to stock trading are “securities fraud” or “market manipulation.”
Not to get technical but here’s an partial excerpt of the legal specifics:
15 U.S. Code § 78i – Manipulation of security prices
(a) – (2 To effect, alone or with 1 or more other persons, a series of transactions in any security registered on a national securities exchange, any security not so registered, or in connection with any security-based swap or security-based swap agreement with respect to such security creating actual or apparent active trading in such security, or raising or depressing the price of such security, for the purpose of inducing the purchase or sale of such security by others.
Enter Reddit’s r/wallstreetbets forum. Not saying that there is anything illegal about “loving” a company as a group and choosing to “support” it by buying its shares.
Even if the motivation (false and imagined) is to “hurt” the short sellers in some kind of Robin Hood attack, that’s probably not something the SEC would care about. Short selling professionals can take care of themselves.
Enter another part of history: the allegedly overvalued company effect
Attacking short sellers has become a kind of sport, particularly when it’s about an emotional connection that was partly responsible for a company’s shares being “overvalued” by traditional metrics in the first place. Once “overvalued” therefore, a target to be sold short by traders and hedge funds that believe in quaint things like profit to earnings ratios and the like.
While company’s share prices being “overvalued” is based on opinion and often wrong, there have been recent cases, since the NASDAQ bubble burst in 2000, that have added a somewhat new, larger, twist on the typical understanding of these types of situations.
Bubble is as bubble does
To take the biggest example, there is Amazon (AMZN) which would take a thousand page book to accurately and fully elaborate on, but for the sake of brevity a couple of points could be made.
It is well known that Amazon posted substantial losses for many years while the stock price generally continued to rise. This was attributed to shareholders’ willingness to forgo proof of financial success within the company and persisted in buying & holding in the hope that share prices would continue to rise and that the company eventually would show profits and more success.
All of that seemed to happen, in the case of Amazon, when viewed casually, and now there is a sense, among some, that overvaluation, in “outlier” cases, is no longer a valid reason to sell (or short) a stock. Everybody’s happy right?
The uses of inflated value is a sticky-wicket if you are the loser
Not everybody. Naturally there are many “bad” short sellers who likely lost by shorting Amazon during it’s unrelenting rise since 2000. They are unlikely happy.
But also, and here’s the rub, there were whole industries crushed by the power that came with that “over-valued” stock price that seems, from looking at reams of data, to have been used to finance the selling of goods at substantial losses for “as long as it takes” to damage competitors.
Ultimately, for Amazon, creating a possibly dangerous monopoly (or monopsony, as it were) position with the potential for further damage to not just competition, and the overall marketplace, but to society as a whole.
Tesla is a whole other story, but a completely unique one
However, the situation is clearly not black and white. An alternate opinion could be held regarding the similar, yet very different, situation at Tesla (TSLA). Short interest throughout the rise? Absolutely. Overvaluation by traditional metrics, yup.
But in this case there is both a technological argument to be made, as well as a geopolitical / moral one, that the company’s wider mission: “Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy” is a more than validjustification for wanting to support the company, in any way possible, including through the purchase of it’s purportedly overvalued shares.
That kind of goodwill is the x-factor that is now being twisted into a justification for pumping GameStop (GME) into the stratosphere, beyond the kind of overvaluations that either Amazon or Tesla ever enjoyed (and that’s saying a lot!) while downplaying the “dump” part of the “pump & dump” scenario.
Of course here’s the tragic part; the dump phase always comes, and in reality, is the whole point. Next… ooopsy, while writing this the dump started with GME in the form of a drop from around $500 per share to $226.
For a sub-$20 stock, of course, that’s still extremely high and there will no doubt be gyrations in both directions before the final drop back to obscurity.
Twas ever thus, but still not nice
But the tragedy is in the idea, bandied about in the media and amplified in social media infinitely, that there are “Robin Hood” actors in this game (not the company but the dude in the forest in the movie).
In the end there may be a few that knew all along that “dump” was an integral and necessary part of pump & dump and I am sure there will be plenty of celebration of their “genius” exploits.
But the focus from any of us in the media should be at the tragedy of those that got lost in the hype and stupidity and chose to offer themselves up to the gods of GameStop, the market and Reddit’s r/wallstreetbets as cannon fodder:
”I was in my early teens during the ’08 crisis. I vividly remember the enormous repercussions that the reckless actions by those on Wall Street had in my personal life, and the lives of those close to me. I was fortunate – my parents were prudent and a little paranoid, and they had some food storage saved up. When that crisis hit our family, we were able to keep our little house, but we lived off of pancake mix, and powdered milk, and beans and rice for a year. Ever since then, my parents have kept a food storage, and they keep it updated and fresh.”
”I bought shares a few days ago. I dumped my savings into GME, paid my rent for this month with my credit card, and dumped my rent money into more GME (which for the people here at WSB, I would not recommend). And I’m holding. This is personal for me, and millions of others.”
”You can drop the price of GME after hours $120, I’m not going anywhere. You can pay for thousands of reddit bots, I’m holding. You can get every mainstream media outlet to demonize us, I don’t care. I’m making this as painful as I can for you”.
The wheels are already spinning towards new challenges brought on by Trump’s actions
With so many challenges facing the US and, in many ways the entire world, even as the bizarre political drama recedes, it may be hard to find even a moment of neutral footing before the next crisis phase begins.
In fact it is in the most “positive” areas, endlessly touted as a triumph, where the first fireworks could be set off. Although many believe that the stock market is in a bubble phase, as extreme if not more extreme than either the “dot-com crash” of 2000 or the real estate collapse on 2008, this is truly the first time a bubble was inflated during a time when a triple threat – political, medical and climate emergencies, was in various phases of unfolding at the same time.
But it’s the forth “leg”, the lone bright spot as it has seems, that could carry a very big danger. With the pandemic still not showing any signs of abating, although there are vaccines being distributed, and the political madness of 2020 looking to begin to fade (at least partially), it is the possibility that the stock market bubble finding it’s “pin” that could trigger the next challenge to Biden and the country as a whole.
Perhaps the various stimulus funds being planned for dissemination can postpone any reckoning for at least a few months, but if that is not the case the situation could become extremely dangerous very quickly.
How the current stock market climate compares to 1999 and 2007
Looking back at the history of both of those bubble-crash cycles there are some notable differences. But there are far more similarities. All the various sentiment metrics and herding behaviors are present in forms, just as extreme, potentially more so.
The actual peak may be in the future, as SPAC entities are joining with traditional VCs to ride the avalanche of FED funds flooding into the money supply.
As was the case in 1999 there’s a momentum – a reflexivity as George Soros termed it, that begins as a smooth wave and eventually a tsunami of self-perpetuating belief in the absurd.
That moment could already have come and gone, it’s only in retrospect that the over-heated irrational exuberance becomes obvious to all. Perhaps the folly of WeWork will be the pastor child, or perhaps something that is just now happening.
Once the tsunami hits the shore, however, it will make landfall on an already devastated geography. After four years of corruption and devastating lock-downs (underplayed just enough to extend the misery) and so many challenges and messes to clean up, there will be a shock to the financial system that is unlike anything seen in 2000 and 2008.
A trillion plus dollar bail out after several (three?) have already been set in motion for other rescues and attempts to reinvigorate the economy, will be a hard and dangerous method to use, although it “worked” in the first two bubble-crash scenarios.
The big picture may look endless grim but the hope is in the change
Without a doubt the one thing that would like arise from such a nightmare scenario, similarly to the pandemic and the climate crisis, is that deep and irreversible change on a massive scale will be needed to begin a new phase of recovery.
Just as there’s a “bottoming out” that has to happen when a person finally confronts addictions and other self-destructive behaviors, humankind as a whole will be forced to make severe and lasting changes in order to overcome what will seem like an escalation of woe, at precisely the moment that a happy, sunny return to “normal” is anticipated
While all of this sounds dire, there are few today, who are paying attention, who would not say that massive change is needed. In politics, in business, in the economy, in healthcare and, of yes, in our response to existence level threats such as the climate crisis, we need, more than anything else to change.
Perhaps a downturn in a fantasy filled stock market bubble is just the pin prick that we need to wash away the negative trends of the past and begin from a new perspective that recognizes just how different our organizing principals need to be, as a species, in order to not only survive, but to do so in abundance.
Mathematics and Philosophy meet in Fractal Pioneer’s Unique Career
Benoit Mandelbrot, the renowned French-American mathematician, died on October 14th, 2010 at the age of 85, and would have turned 96 today. To celebrate, Google published a doodle in his honor. An additional part of the celebration, Google launched an interactive “Explore” feature to allow users to view the endless patterns of the Mandelbrot set.
If you don’t know what a fractal is, simply put, it is a never-ending pattern. As defined by the Fractal Foundation: “They are infinitely complex patterns that are self-similar across different scales. They are created by repeating a simple process over and over in an ongoing feedback loop“. There are many examples of fractals in nature, in fact virtually all natural phenomena can be seen as being fractal based.
Mandelbrot is best known for fractal geometry, which is a term he coined in 1975 to describe a new branch of geometry that sought to explain of the irregular shapes and processes found within nature. His research has contributed valuable knowledge in many different fields including physics, medicine, geology, art and even finance.
Wide ranging influence continues to this day
His fractal theory have even found its way into pop culture, with graphical images created by his algorithm placed on t-shirts, posters, album covers, and even inspired a song called “Mandelbrot Set” by Jonathan Coulton and the text “The Colours of Infinity” by Arthur C. Clarke.
The mathematician won numerous awards, including the prestigious ‘Wolf Prize” in 1993 for Physics and even had a small asteroid named in his honor in 2000 called ’27500 Mandelbrot’.
Mandelbrot made significant contributions to the study of financial markets as a fractal based system that conforms to the concept that all of nature, and the entire universe, is also fractal based. A great body of overlapping work exists between the studies of the financial markets done by Mandelbrot himself as well as the way his fractal concepts figured into the work of Ralph Nelson Elliott and Robert Prechter of the ElliottWave.com.
The basis of Elliott’s theory is to describe price movements in financial markets as recurring, fractal wave patterns. This core insight was, in essence an outgrowth of the recognition that, when looking at various time frames in stock market charts, and therefore the human behavior that generated those patterns, the result is no different than looking at, for example, a sea coastline from various altitudes – which reveals a fractal.
The insight that produced this theory not only established and inspired the stock trading strategy based on the Elliott Wave Theory, but also more recently led to Robert Prechter’s Socionomic Theory. Socionomics is a new science using the benefits of Elliott Wave Theory in understanding not only finance and economics but also social behavior, popular culture and politics which can be seen as interpreting nature using fractal based concepts.
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2008 and it’s Aftermath was a Wake Up Call that was Heeded by Virtually No-one
There are many good films on the economic collapse of 2008 (The Big Short is a favorite), also known as “The Great Recession” for fear of using the “D” word. Books too have opined on the lessons learned and, in some cases, taken dubious credit for the “rescue” of the world economy.
Watched or read closely, these books, with the exclusion of the self-congratulatory ones mentioned above, all point to a sobering conclusion: the underlying issues that nearly led to a protracted worldwide economic collapse were not solved or fixed but “the can was simply kicked further down the road”.
Unfortunately, they also agree that “further down the road”, currently around 11 years later, translates to “soon”. Accordingly, we’d all be wise to revisit the 2008 crisis and read some of the conclusions, in detail, that have been drawn from a deeper study of the remaining and very serious issues faced as we go further forward into the 2020’s.
So much of our destinies are tied to economics, it is always a wise area to begin to look for solutions to all macro-dilemmas
Of course, now, in a crowded life-raft of a planet, we also have the rising threat of Climate Change, the ongoing and terrifying challenges associated with global pandemics and sociopolitical trends, that point towards anything but harmonious co-operation, within and between societies around the world.
All the more reason to embrace what at times appears to be the lone bright spot, in this saga of seemingly-endless doom and gloom: we have educational resources available and the modern marvel of human-networked-communication devices (a.k.a. the internet and the software and hardware we use to access it), is becoming a more powerful ally by the hour.
Here are books we highly recommend to start your journey towards your heroic contributions to finding solutions and hope, as we look to the future:
The Great Devaluation: How to Embrace, Prepare, and Profit from the Coming Global Monetary Reset
The Great Devaluation is the #1 bestselling book that explains why the real crisis facing the world today is not the Coronavirus. The real crisis facing the world is explosive government debt and deficits. Governments are now left with no choice but to spend more than they make, borrow more than they can ever repay, and devalue their currencies to cover it all up.
Former Hollywood storyteller Adam Baratta brings monetary policy to life in this follow-up to his national bestseller, Gold Is A Better Way. You’ll learn how and why Federal Reserve polices have facilitated an explosion in government debt and have systematically undermined the world financial system in the name of profit. The result? An out of control system where financial inequality has become a ticking time bomb set to blow up the global economy. Click here to see “The Great Devaluation” and help Independent Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World
Click here to see “Crashed” and help Independent Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
We live in a world where dramatic shifts in the domestic and global economy command the headlines, from rollbacks in US banking regulations to tariffs that may ignite international trade wars. But current events have deep roots, and the key to navigating today’s roiling policies lies in the events that started it all–the 2008 economic crisis and its aftermath.
Despite initial attempts to downplay the crisis as a local incident, what happened on Wall Street beginning in 2008 was, in fact, a dramatic caesura of global significance that spiraled around the world, from the financial markets of the UK and Europe to the factories and dockyards of Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, forcing a rearrangement of global governance. With a historian’s eye for detail, connection, and consequence, Adam Tooze brings the story right up to today’s negotiations, actions, and threats–a much-needed perspective on a global catastrophe and its long-term consequences. Click here to see “Crashed” and help Independent Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Seventh Edition
This seventh edition of an investment classic has been thoroughly revised and expanded following the latest crises to hit international markets. Renowned economist Robert Z. Aliber introduces the concept that global financial crises in recent years are not independent events, but symptomatic of an inherent instability in the international system.
Covering such topics as the history and anatomy of crises, speculative manias, and the lender of last resort, this book puts the turbulence of the financial world in perspective. Click here to see “Manias, Panics, and Crashes” and help Independent Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Setting the Record Straight on a Financial Disaster
The bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers was the pivotal event of the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed. Ever since the bankruptcy, there has been heated debate about why the Federal Reserve did not rescue Lehman in the same way it rescued other financial institutions, such as Bear Stearns and AIG. The Fed’s leaders from that time, especially former Chairman Ben Bernanke, have strongly asserted that they lacked the legal authority to save Lehman because it did not have adequate collateral for the loan it needed to survive.
Based on a meticulous four-year study of the Lehman case, The Fed and Lehman Brothers debunks the official narrative of the crisis. It shows that in reality, the Fed could have rescued Lehman but officials chose not to because of political pressures and because they underestimated the damage that the bankruptcy would do to the economy. The compelling story of the Lehman collapse will interest anyone who cares about what caused the financial crisis, whether the leaders of the Federal Reserve have given accurate accounts of their actions, and how the Fed can prevent future financial disasters. Click here to see “The Fed and Lehman Brothers” and help Independent Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System–And Themselves
Click here to see “Too Big to Fail” and help Independent Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
Brand New for 2018: an updated edition featuring a new afterword to mark the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis. The brilliantly reported New York Times bestseller that goes behind the scenes of the financial crisis on Wall Street and in Washington to give the definitive account of the crisis, the basis for the HBO film.
In one of the most gripping financial narratives in decades, Andrew Ross Sorkin–a New York Times columnist and one of the country’s most respected financial reporters–delivers the first definitive blow-by-blow account of the epochal economic crisis that brought the world to the brink. Through unprecedented access to the players involved, he re-creates all the drama and turmoil of these turbulent days, revealing never-before-disclosed details and recounting how, motivated as often by ego and greed as by fear and self-preservation, the most powerful men and women in finance and politics decided the fate of the world’s economy. Click here to see “Too Big to Fail” and help Independent Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
Crash of 2008 and What It Means: The New Paradigm for Financial Markets
Click here to see “The Crash of 2008“ and help Independent Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
In the midst of one of the most serious financial upheavals since the Great Depression, George Soros, the legendary financier and philanthropist, writes about the origins of the crisis and proposes a set of policies that should be adopted to confront it.
Soros, whose breadth of experience in financial markets is unrivaled, places the crisis in the context of his decades of study of how individuals and institutions handle the boom and bust cycles that now dominate global economic activity. In a concise essay that combines practical insight with philosophical depth, Soros makes an invaluable contribution to our understanding of the great credit crisis and its implications for our nation and the world. Click here to see “The Crash of 2008 and What it Means” and help Independent Bookstores. Also available on Amazon.
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Some of the best books written on human behavior and finance
The economy is in a precarious situation right now, as you are no doubt well aware, stemming from the novel coronavirus pandemic. Early March the stock market met with some unprecedented hits, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid to consecutive record percentage drops on the 9th, 12th, and 16th. Now, with many businesses remaining closed, or struggling to re-open, most consumers still forced to stay at home, with people living in near-panic, due to a well founded fear of infection, and many Americans are struggling to stay financially afloat.
At the very least throughout all of this, we have found more time to read books, and luckily, there are a few experts who have taken the time to write valuable and approachable texts on issues facing our convoluted global economic system. Here are five books that are worth turning to in these troubling times. While they might not be able to help us magically regain the stock market losses we’ve accumulated over the past few months, they can still give us some solace and understanding, with perspectives that could prevent something like this happening again. Perhaps even reveal ways to prosper in the coming phase II, Depression, Recession or Recovery.
Click to buy “Manias, Panics, and Crashes” and at the same time help Lynxotic and all Independent Local Bookstores
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Seventh Edition
By Robert Z Aliber and Charles P Kindleberger
Originally published in 1978, “Manias, Panics, and Crashes” has evolved a lot over the years. This most recent seventh edition has aged well with experience, witnessing and learning from some of the most significant stock market events to take place over the past forty years. Economist Robert Z Aliber, originally working with the late Charles P Kindleberger, takes a wholistic view of financial crashes, seeing them as predictable events in an unstable system. Bookshop calls the edition “an investment classic has been thoroughly revised and expanded following the latest crises to hit international markets”
Click to buy “Connectedness and Contagion” and at the same time help Lynxotic and all Independent Local Bookstores
Connectedness and Contagion: Protecting the Financial System from Panics
By Hal S Scott
In a move that seems almost prophetic given today’s situation, this 2016 book likens the financial system to a contagious disease. Partially a criticism of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, “Connectedness and Contagion” asserts that the government needs more control over Wall Street to limit creditors and prevent them from creating unethical, potentially dangerous situations. Harvard Law Professor Hal S Scott throughly researched this highly intellectual read, which Bookshop sums up as “an argument that contagion is the most significant risk facing the financial system and that Dodd¬Frank has reduced the government’s ability to respond effectively.” Sounds like prescience to us!
Click to buy “The Infinite Game” and at the same time help Lynxotic and all Independent Local Bookstores
The Infinite Game
By Simon Sinek
A more contemporary title, “The Infinite Game” was published in October 2019, and it likens global economics to an elaborate game with ever-changing players, fluid rules, and no predetermined endpoint or objective. Motivational speaker and writer Simon Sinek offers readers ideas on how to navigate such a game, for doing so certainly breaks from conventional goal-oriented mindsets. According to Sinek, the required cognitive state for “winning” involves remaining focused, but also adaptable, to attain longterm achievements. Bookshop calls it “a bold framework for leadership in today’s ever-changing world,” and a useful text for situations far beyond the stock market.
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds
By Charles MacKay
Originally published in 1841 by Scottish poet Charles MacKay, “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds” is a bona fide classic and a must on every economics zealot’s bookshelf. Although written at the height of Western modernity, MacKay’s book holds up to this day as a an early analysis of the intersections between economics and culture throughout history. Despite it sounding cliché, we can indeed learn lots about the present by looking to the past. Bookshop, selling a 2016 Createspace Independent Publishing Platform edition of the book, calls it “highly readable and accessible even today.”
Click to buy “Incerto (series)” and at the same time help Lynxotic and all Independent Local Bookstores
Incerto (series)
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“Incerto” is not one book, but four— “Fooled By Randomness,” “The Black Swan,” “The Bed Of Procrustes” and “Antifragile.” All penned by statistics essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb and respectively published in 2001, 2007, 2010 and 2012, the “Incerto” series is all about risk, error, and probability in our difficult-to-predict world. Taleb takes both contemporary and past events into account, mulling over abstract human illusion and myths as well as down-to-earth psychological, technological, and economic occurrences. As a whole, the series sheds light on many things that seem to be anomalies in our modern lives. Bookshop— which is selling the series in one, extended-edition collection— calls “Incerto” “a landmark” and a helpful map for “decision-making in a world we don’t understand.”
End of Day Bounce-back perhaps triggered by Passage of Aid Package
In spite of unprecedented intervention from the Federal Reserve and Congress the markets continue to plunge, generally every other day, in what has become a volatile and, for many, alarming pattern.
Intraday, the Dow dropped to more than 2000 points lower, for the second time this week. At moment in time the level was below where the Dow sat on January 20th, 2017 when Trump was inaugurated.
Neither the two rate cuts, the second one being a massive 1% “surprise” (which sent rates to zero for the first time in history) intervention on Sunday, nor the trillion dollar stimulus package pushed forward by the White House, appears to have had any significant effect on the consistently declining share prices.
Click to Buy “Elliott Wave Trading” and at the same time help Lynxotic and All Independent Local Bookstores. Also Available on Amazon
The Senate today passed the congress approved relief package, which provides for free coronavirus testing and paid emergency leave, and is expected to be signed into law by the President.
As we have pointed out in previous posts, while the novel coronavirus is getting 100% of the credit for the unwelcome bear market and the attendant fears, the market swoon and the pandemic could also be parallel events without any direct causal connection.
Naturally the companies and sectors such as travel which are directly and negatively affected have had large hits to their stock prices based on the catastrophic business outlook.
On the other hand there are companies and business that could even benefit from the shift of economic activity necessitated by the preventive measures that are being universally implemented. For those companies it is the underlying bear market sentiment that can and will, in all likelihood, drag them down along with the rest.
Oil Continues to Plummet as Likely Halt to the Travel Industry Looms Large
The oil shock as mirrored in Exon (XOM) and U.S. Oil (USO) shares continues in spectacular fashion falling over 10% and 16% respectively. This can be seen as a secondary shock in the cascading price depressions influences initially by the production increases used by Saudi Arabia and Russia to start an all out price war, and now being hit by the virtual shutdown of the travel industry. The initial shockwaves reverberated sending the crude prices down 30% while the losses in the socks (and ETF) above are adding to the depressed levels.
Delta Airlines (DAL) was down even more on the outlook for the travel industry dropping an incredible 26.73% today alone. At $23.02 it is hard to believe that the stock was over $63 two days ago. Pending bailout aside, this is indicating that airline bankruptcies are now beyond probable and verging on a strong likelihood. Presumably a bailout would turn the stock price around, but potentially not shield it completely from the bear market across-the-board progression.
Naturally, after crowing and bragging at every uptick and new all-time high in the markets for more than three years, Trump is placing the “blame” for current intensely downward trajectory squarely on the “chinese” coronavirus and attempting to avoid any responsibility for the state of the markets, economy or anything at all on planet earth for that matter.
Naturally, in an election year this is to be expected. At the same time the reality that this bear market has only just begun, the all time high was little more than a month ago on February 12th, does not bode well for his chances, likely against Joe Biden, in the general election this November.
You can also find books on Stock Trading, Economics and many other topics at our sister site: Cherrybooks on Bookshop.org
Bear has begun and shows no signs of Returning to Cave anytime soon
Historic is hardly the word for it. At times like these it seems like we have to repeat to ourselves “it’s just stock prices”. The VIX, a measure of “fear” in colloquial terms, rose 40% to hit the highest point in history at 80, two points above the level that it was at on two previous occasions. Both of those previous occasions were during the 2008 financial crisis.
The unique fact in the mix, this time around, is that these extreme readings in the fear gauge and the obvious volatility that has the Dow up and or down one thousand to three thousand points on any give day and it’s almost “normal” is all happening barely a month from the all time high that was reached on Feb 12th.
And therein, as they say, lies the rub. The bear market that started last week, based on the common but meaningless measurement of a 20% drop from that high, likely has a long time yet to go. Naturally there will be ferocious short covering rallies and even, eventually, slow days without mega up or down moves. But just because the percentages from the high are large, or because the VIX is at its all time high, does not mean that the bear market will be over soon.
The novel coronavirus is clearly a serious event and will cause disruption both economically and in the disruption of our daily lives, but the bear market that was, in truth, long overdue would have happened eventually in any case as bear markets always follow bull markets eventually. The concern is that the remedies and actions by the Fed and the political establishment never addressed the underlying causes and weaknesses of the entire system during the 2008 crisis, dooming us all to re-live that terrible time, potentially with an even more extreme set of circumstances.
Let’s hope that both the health crisis and the parallel financial crisis will be less dangerous and less extreme than it would appear on a day like this one.
Down nearly 4000 points in Five Days in Correction Territory, but Bear is Still Hiding in Plain Sight
At the time of this writing the DJIA futures are down nearly 400 additional points (1.54%) at 25,161. As is often the case at major market turning points there is talk of corrections (commonly measured as a drop of 10% but less than 20%) and, naturally, afterwards, a probable return to all time highs.
There are ridiculous attempts to “blame” the drop on the election, Bernie Sanders, The Corona Virus and even an intentional combination of all of the above to sabotage Trump’s re-election hopes.
The financial press has a similar job to the President, to calm fears. That’s why there are numerous articles that all say the same thing: don’t worry, corrections are healthy, by definition they represent a decline of 10% or more – and are not the start of a Bear Market. Unless they are.
There are articles advising to buy the dip, or to wait a little longer and then buy the dip. There are literally dozens of articles saying that virtually 100% of the downturn is based on “fears” that can be directly attributed to the Coronavirus.
More honest are the articles that use the word “amid” as in “Dow tumbles almost 1,200 points, 124-year record, amid coronavirus scare”. The word amid implying that the two things – the scare and the drop in stocks are in proximity, yet not necessarily a case of causation and causal correlation.
Naturally, being a part of the world economic situation, the virus and fears that it will spread and become a Pandemic have an impact. But 100%? As if all sellers are literally freaking out together about precisely this one thing?
Just as Summer leads to Fall and Fall Leads to Winter, there’s another Explanation the we should All Consider
The minority of the media weighing in, and from anecdotal evidence it is a tiny, tiny faction of the whole, actually mention the most likely and even obvious “cause” for the market showing a very strong propensity for decline at this juncture. The fact that Bull markets always end eventually and are followed by Bear markets.
Further, that the many all time highs that Trump has been touting at every opportunity were, in reality, the last throes of a bull market that was juiced in every possible way, initially to stimulate the economy after the 2008 “Great Recession” and, more recently, at Trump’s prodding, to help with his re-election efforts.
Optimism has been off the charts, and investing and paying insane sums to invest in companies that have zero profits was, until very recently, considered by many a permanent condition that would just keep expanding, along with the beneficiaries.
So, in the midst of all kinds of likely causes and reasons, the most obvious, the most likely, the most logical and the reason that is being emphasized by the extent that it is being ignored and ruled out stands out clearly, like a beacon in the fog.
A long overdue Bear Market has started. Just as with a virus threatening our health, it is best to be prepared if there is a chance ( possibly, a very significant chance) that it is coming.
Say the B Word, have no Fear, as Forewarned is Forearmed
So, rather than being behind the curve as wishful thinking grips us and makes literally any other explanation than the obvious one more attractive, it’s best to at least come to grips with the Bear Market scenario.
If this is the start of a Bear Market phase, here is what will happen next. This initial drop will continue for hours or days longer but not weeks. That will be followed by a rebound, possibly sharp, that will last a few weeks or even longer – climbing and clawing up takes longer than a straight drop.
Then, right around the time that all the articles are saying the worst is probably over, that all time highs are possible even likely, the next down phase will come. It will be at least as strong and deep as the current one and once it is about halfway through it’s decline many will begin to change perspective and become pessimistic for the first time in years.
So, prepare and be safe, both regarding your health, and finances. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst or, at least, the unanimously unexpected.
And, no, this is not a Conspiracy to Stop Trump from Getting Re-elected
This week, so far, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 1900 points in two days. Although the percentages were not record breaking the point totals qualified as the third and fourth highest loses ever. In the S&P the two day loss percentage was the largest since 2015: 6.3%, while the dollar calculation in market value for that same index was $1.7 trillion, as tabulated by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
In addition to the supposed calculations above the an all time record low for the 10-year Treasury yield was also noted. It is possible that in some cosmic way all of these factors played a role, except perhaps Trump’s delusional conspiracy theory.
You can be sure that if the market continues to decline in a prototypical Bear market pattern, the President will twist this theory and any other that comes to mind in an effort to blame anyone and anything. And, in truth, the coming issues trace back to the stimulus “rescue” actions (TARP) taken in 2008 and many actions not taken since. However, that does not absolve the current occupant of the White House of his ill-advised self-congratulations each time the market made new highs.
There is a perverse tendency to ascribe correlation to virtually anything that is negative in the news on a given day to a concurrent stock market decline. The same bad news on a day the markets rise suddenly morphs into strong “shrugging off” of the “headwinds” or are seen as proof of a “resilient” bullish potential.
From the Ridiculous to the Sublime, Creative Explanations for the Consecutive Down Days Abound
How about Senator and Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders causing $1.7 trillion in losses by threatening to become the democratic nominee – which could happen maybe in July? Or it’s just a “Black Swan” out of nowhere a one in a trillion event that is aimed at some specific detail in your life – like Trump projecting that this is all a plot to ruin his re-election hope. All just reasons to pretend that Bull markets are not followed, inevitably, by Bear markets, which, unfortunately they always are.
However, as counterweight to that pattern of assuming a correlation where there is none, are other facts. Such as the fact that the Coronavirus has been known and killing people for months and during that entire time the markets have risen substantially.
And, further, these kinds of superficial causality explanations fail to add context of anything beyond news stories. For example, this has been a nearly 11 year Bull market, the longest in history and more than twice as long as the 4.5 year average.
The measurements that show a likely peak in sentiment and a potential end (bull markets are always followed by bear markets, without exception) to the climb have been flashing red for some time. Of course, since many pundits are invested, literally, in an endless continuation of rising stock prices, there are those that argue that there were several tiny baby bear markets during the last decade, which would negate the longest ever status.
Many indicators and the wise predictors among asset managers are pointing towards at least a drop of 38% likely, which would qualify as a Bear market, but that is also a very conservative estimate.
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Further, if available data and common sense are taken into consideration, it is possible that the markets could regain what has been lost in the last week and once again enter positive territory for the year. It is not likely, however, that any such bounce would be anything beyond a temporary respite before the Bear is back.
And the Cornavirus? We all hope that it will be contained and we can all rest a little easier. But don’t plan on stocks having a lock on the ups and downs of that saga, anymore that they are trading in lock-step with the trade war with China, for example. It is absolutely possible that both of those issues could be resolved and have no positive impact on stock prices whatsoever. Of course, if that happened there would be a new convenient scapegoat waiting in the wings.
All that being said, for anyone holding substantial sums in the markets, or if you happen to be an incumbent President, there is a dose of double trouble in the wind. Both the rapid plunge in stock prices and the rise of a potential global pandemic are negative and scary. One just doesn’t happen to be the cause of the other.
Literally Trillions are Staked on a Carbon Nightmare Future
Saudi Aramco is Saudi Arabia’s largest national oil company and one of the wealthiest, if not the wealthiest, corporations in the world. On Sunday, November 30th, 2019, Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority stated that Aramco is going to be turned into a publically traded corporation and start making initial public offers of 1 to 3 percent of its shares sometime in December.
Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman initially boasted the Aramco’s worth at $2 trillion. Further research, however, deems the valuation somewhere between $1.3 and 1.7 trillion. Nevertheless, these enormous figures—mixed with the projected IPO of $8.53 per share—still make Aramco more fiscally valuable than Apple or Microsoft.
Putting Aramco in the public sector is a huge move for Saudi Ariabia’s economy and is inextricably linked to the Crown Prince’s “Vision 2030” socioeconomic reform plan for the kingdom. It will make oil a larger money-maker than it already is for the nation by attracting additional foreign investors and combatting the shift towards alternative energy sources.
At the same time, though, this move is not the most environmentally progressive, and although it creates a short-term economic boost for the country, it may not be sustainable in the long run.
Right now the world is trying desperately to reform its energy practices and emissions standards. The 2015 Paris Climate Accord outlined bold plans to address the global climate crisis and currently, the UN Climate Conference in Madrid is working on updating and evaluating those goals. A big part of these initiatives puts focus on transferring global energy away from fossil fuel burning and towards cleaner and more renewable sources and methods.
While Saudi Arabia has made some investments in alternative energy sources, it remains overwhelmingly focused on oil—its most profitable commodity. The nation’s slight investments in solar power are dwarfed compared to its ongoing oil extraction. Then, even when the country does employ solar energy, it often uses it to fund or power oil wells and refineries.
When asked about Aramco’s response to the Paris Climate Accord, the company’s Chief Executive Amin Nasser practically laughed it off, boasting that with all other parts of the world being held to stringent energy conditions, Aramco would easily become the global leader in gas.
Not a Question of When but rather How Fast can the World Switch off the Oil Pumps?
The corporation should not be so quick to celebrate, though. While the planet still has a long way to go when it comes to environmental protection and security, more investors are turning away from oil and starting to consider alternatives. With the scarcity and conflict surrounding the resource, oil is becoming less reliable. The recent surge in electric vehicle adoption is just one example of alternative energy sources affecting the oil economy.
Nasser responded to this observation by calling it a “crisis of perception” facing oil firms. Cynically, he explains that ideas of oil going away anytime soon is a highly exaggerated theory, and that fossil fuels remain the most secure form of energy.
Perhaps this is the case for now. But if big oil continues to pump the Earth without regard for ecological fragility, then there will eventually be nothing “secure” about the practice at all, and economic influence will mean quite little in the face of Armageddon. All humans will be affected, not just the “green” ones.
Even in less dramatic terms, studies suggest that “Peak Oil” will arrive at some point in the next twenty-five years. When this happens, it will severely hurt Aramco’s prices, as demand will go down and investors will have a greater economic incentive to move on from oil. The company will not seem so high and mighty when that happens. Geopolitical dangers will almost certainly rise.
All of this is not even to mention the socio-political risks that come with investing in Aramco. Environmental issues aside, Aramco still faces international competition with the U.S. and Russia, stagnant output for the past five years, warlike attacks from Iran, and a lack of corporate autonomy against the Saudi Arabian government.
From an immediate money-driven perspective, investing in Aramco might seem like an easy buck and a booming economic development for Saudi Arabia. However, money (like oil wells) can dry up quicker than one thinks, and when that happens, investors might be left with nothing in their pockets but a long list of political, sociological, and environmental problems.
Tesla Shares Make a Surprise Comeback and Soar 21%
Tesla’s third-quarter profit results released on Wednesday, October 23rd surprised investors after a long-time series of doubts about the company’s ability to compete with larger and better capitalized rivals in other parts of the world.
The company announced a $143 million profit third quarter profit in 2019, and that, by the end of September, Tesla had $5.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents along with $371 million in operating cash.
Additionally, after Chief Executive Elon Musk announced his promise of a 2020 rollout with a more affordable SUV and more self-driving technology, Tesla’s shares rose almost 21% to $307.12 within hours of the unexpected news.
This is obviously good news for both Tesla and its investors, but there are going be a few more battles needed to prove consistent profitability and to remain ahead of the market it was the first to establish.
“Given the breakneck speed of expansion, Tesla will face significant demands on its cash pile.”
Nicholas Hyett, Financial Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown
So far, Tesla has shown significant increases in production efficiency while setting another record for deliveries led by Model 3. This, along with their new, cost-cutting Shanghai Gigafactory 3, holds promise that they’ll be able to meet these profitability demands.
Tesla Giga Factory 3 in Shanghai, China
Shanghai Gigafactory Increases Tesla Production Efficiency
After returning to profitability, Tesla revealed that its Shanghai Gigafatory is now ready to start producing EVs for China, the world’s most populated country. In fact, it’s already assembling full vehicles on a trial basis to work out a few regulatory kinks before official production begins.
Tesla released their Q3 2019 update and said “China is by far the largest market for mid-sized premium sedans. With Model 3 priced on par with gasoline powered mid-sized sedans (even before gas savings and other benefits), we believe China could become the biggest market for Model 3.”
As Tesla breaks significant ground in China, their sustainable influence reaches beyond North America, aiming for a greater presence on the global stage.
Solar Roof Tile V3: Affordable Sustainability = Accessible Sustainability
Elon Musk’s proposed third iteration of his solar roof tile products is now ready for sales.
During his company’s annual shareholder meeting in June, Musk promised that these solar tiles would have a significant improvement in performance and affordability. If you factor-in future utility savings and how much a new roof installation generally costs, the product would be on par with the cost of cheap, non-solar roofing tiles.
This is a significant development towards affordable, sustainable energy measures since Tesla first unveiled the product in 2016 and opened pre-orders in 2017.
Hopefully, once more information about this is made available, the sales will take off, thereby increasing the accessibility for many more homes to go solar.
Stocks decline a day after Trump gave the markets a jolt of optimism…
Truth is, no one knows why stocks bounce one day and collapse the next. Yesterday, the reduction in trade war tensions, due to the postponement of a tariff increase, was credited with the surge in market prices.
Today, all major indices are down around 3%, while the VIX, known as the “fear index” spiked 20% higher, and there are plenty of factors that may have set the sell-off in motion:
This time, it’s the inversion of the yield curve that is given the blame, primarily, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average being down, at the end of Wednesday’s session, over 800 points. Asleep yet?
Don’t worry, this won’t take long:
The Mysterious Yield Curve, Deconstructed
When shorter dated bonds, bonds that “mature” sooner, have higher yields (pay a higher percentage in interest) than longer dated ones, that’s an inverted yield curve. Inverted, because, it is not “normal” to be paid more for taking less risk, that is to say, holding a bond for a shorter period of time. Also, it’s not logical.
Unless, in theory, people are seeing the near term risk as higher than the long term one. Which, honestly, may or may not be accurate, but perception is all and all.
And this is not the first inversion lately. For several months, since March, the 3-month yield rose above the 10-year, then again in July and has remained so. However, today it’s the 2-year vs. the 10-year, and it is considered the “main” pair, and that’s what got the ball rolling down hill.
Extremes are also a concern. For example, the 30-year Treasury yield dropped to it’s lowest rate ever at 2.05%.
And, to top it all off, the snowball begins to roll when the 2-year vs. 10-year curve inverts, particularly due to the history of what happens after this phenomena occurs.
The R word. Yes, recession. Not sometimes. Always. At least so far.
Not necessarily right away. The first inversion prior to the 2008 financial crisis was in December of 2005. However, according to the Fed Bank of Cleveland, a recession can generally be expected approximately one year after the yield curve inverts.
Trump Goes Berserk. Blames Fed Chairman and the “Crazy” Curve!
Does this guy sound worried?
..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!
Germany and China Numbers and That Pesky Trade War that Tariff-man loves so much
Ok, that’s pretty much the bond story. Other factors weighing on stock prices? There’s that pesky trade war with China which, yesterday’s jubilation notwithstanding, is not over. Not by a long shot.
Then, in came the news that Germany’s GDP contracted for the first time in ten years. What has been called the “Golden Decade” for the mighty Teutonic economy, the world’s 4th largest, is now officially at an end.
This, again, ties back to the trade wars as Germany is an export driven economy and exports to the US and China, (who, as we know are locked in their battle over trade) primarily and mainly cars. Car sales, particularly in China, are very weak. In China the sales figure have gone down for the last 13 months.
Also in China, industrial production, it was announced, in July of 2019 was weaker than for the same month in 2018. Still a positive number, mind you, at 4.8%, but the lowest growth percentage in 17 years.
Other economic numbers for the Chinese economy, also announced today, were weak in many key segments. Retail sales were less than expected and unemployment is on the rise. All in all, a gloomy report for what has been the rising star on the world stage in terms of growth.
Plenty of Triggers, not many Rainbows
So, if we are looking for reasons why people in the stock markets, generally, might be in the mood to sell, we can point to these factors, not to mention political dangers in Asia with the ongoing Hong Kong protests, and tension.
Although sometimes people sell just to sell (often politely called “profit taking”) this appears to be something else.
Also, while it is too early to say that any positive effect will arise in trade talks, with the US and China both feeling weaker and therefore more accommodating, that is, at least one possible silver lining.
Another is that, for the first time in all recorded history of the bond market, the inversion might not lead to a recession, after all.
Does over 925 points lost by the Dow Jones Industrial Average intraday qualify as a Market Crash? With the NASDAQ down over 4% and Bonds at record low yields, and the Chinese Yuan breaking the psychologically important 7 to 1 barrier against the dollar, it appears the Trade War is getting serious indeed. The Dow closed for the day down 767 points.
After Trump’s now infamous tweet, late last week, that set markets in the US tumbling, now, China’s immediate retaliation plans have been revealed, pushing the markets into a tailspin.
Lowering the currency exchange rate has the effect of countering the tariff by increasing the number of yuan generated by dollar denominated exports. Naturally there are more complex peripheral and ancillary effects that will be debated by economists until the end of time. The People’s Bank, for what it’s worth, claimed that the drop was “driven and determined” by market forces.<p>The yuan is now at its lowest point relative to the dollar since 2008.
The NASDAQ and tech stocks are now down for the sixth straight day. A man who at his inauguration spoke of “the end of American carnage”, and who touts his ability to conjure up stock market gains is now facing a serious problem, in addition to his legal and political woes.
