Tag Archives: Black Swan

Business, Stock Market

Black Swan? Coronavirus? Bernie Sanders? None of these are the reason for the Huge Stock Drop This Week

And, no, this is not a Conspiracy to Stop Trump from Getting Re-elected

This week, so far, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 1900 points in two days. Although the percentages were not record breaking the point totals qualified as the third and fourth highest loses ever. In the S&P the two day loss percentage was the largest since 2015: 6.3%, while the dollar calculation in market value for that same index was $1.7 trillion, as tabulated by S&P Dow Jones Indices.

In addition to the supposed calculations above the an all time record low for the 10-year Treasury yield was also noted. It is possible that in some cosmic way all of these factors played a role, except perhaps Trump’s delusional conspiracy theory.

You can be sure that if the market continues to decline in a prototypical Bear market pattern, the President will twist this theory and any other that comes to mind in an effort to blame anyone and anything. And, in truth, the coming issues trace back to the stimulus “rescue” actions (TARP) taken in 2008 and many actions not taken since. However, that does not absolve the current occupant of the White House of his ill-advised self-congratulations each time the market made new highs.

There is a perverse tendency to ascribe correlation to virtually anything that is negative in the news on a given day to a concurrent stock market decline. The same bad news on a day the markets rise suddenly morphs into strong “shrugging off” of the “headwinds” or are seen as proof of a “resilient” bullish potential.

From the Ridiculous to the Sublime, Creative Explanations for the Consecutive Down Days Abound

How about Senator and Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders causing $1.7 trillion in losses by threatening to become the democratic nominee – which could happen maybe in July? Or it’s just a “Black Swan” out of nowhere a one in a trillion event that is aimed at some specific detail in your life – like Trump projecting that this is all a plot to ruin his re-election hope. All just reasons to pretend that Bull markets are not followed, inevitably, by Bear markets, which, unfortunately they always are.

However, as counterweight to that pattern of assuming a correlation where there is none, are other facts. Such as the fact that the Coronavirus has been known and killing people for months and during that entire time the markets have risen substantially.

And, further, these kinds of superficial causality explanations fail to add context of anything beyond news stories. For example, this has been a nearly 11 year Bull market, the longest in history and more than twice as long as the 4.5 year average.

The measurements that show a likely peak in sentiment and a potential end (bull markets are always followed by bear markets, without exception) to the climb have been flashing red for some time. Of course, since many pundits are invested, literally, in an endless continuation of rising stock prices, there are those that argue that there were several tiny baby bear markets during the last decade, which would negate the longest ever status.

Many indicators and the wise predictors among asset managers are pointing towards at least a drop of 38% likely, which would qualify as a Bear market, but that is also a very conservative estimate.

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Further, if available data and common sense are taken into consideration, it is possible that the markets could regain what has been lost in the last week and once again enter positive territory for the year. It is not likely, however, that any such bounce would be anything beyond a temporary respite before the Bear is back.

And the Cornavirus? We all hope that it will be contained and we can all rest a little easier. But don’t plan on stocks having a lock on the ups and downs of that saga, anymore that they are trading in lock-step with the trade war with China, for example. It is absolutely possible that both of those issues could be resolved and have no positive impact on stock prices whatsoever. Of course, if that happened there would be a new convenient scapegoat waiting in the wings.

All that being said, for anyone holding substantial sums in the markets, or if you happen to be an incumbent President, there is a dose of double trouble in the wind. Both the rapid plunge in stock prices and the rise of a potential global pandemic are negative and scary. One just doesn’t happen to be the cause of the other.

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Business, Economics, Stock Market

Stock Market Outlook 2019

Consensus Views Or Contrary Swans

Funny thing about consensus vs. contrary views – they are often identical if you believe what you read. “Wall of worry” and “Slope of Hope”: it’s all irrelevant if you are wearing blinders and have no mooring, or any basis for what the facts are.

Add to all that the fact that most opinions are paid advertisements, mainly for sell-side firms, and it’s tough to wade through the B.S. As per usual, according to a survey from CNBC, the S&P 500 will reach 3000 by the end of 2019.

According to my own non-scientific survey this is the 20th consecutive year that such surveys predict a gain in the market. A prediction for the coming or current year is almost always positive. The negative predictions are saved for “next year” (in other words later in 2020 as seen from in early 2019). Then, of course, the predictions change, and turn positive, just before the year turns.

Such nonsense goes even deeper while pundits and hacks will cite “pervasive pessimism” in the face of almost total bullishness to claim to have a “contrary” view while in reality herding like Spanish bulls in springtime.

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”

Yogi Berra

Using actual data such as the Put-Call Ratio, VIX, AAII Sentiment Survey, or, for example, levels of margin debt and mutual fund money flows, can at least give a picture of the state against which one intends to be contrary.


Then, once in a while, in full-on Black Swan fashion, the prevailing “wisdom” blows up and everyone declares shock that such a thing could happen. A recent example of this was the disastrous collapse of the “short vol” trade in February of 2018.

A one-eyed man in the land of the blind can see a bit more than the rest. A first step is to be aware of the hype and see past the herd. In the last 100 years, Bull markets have tended to last longer than Bear markets (which move faster) and that alone leads to a bias toward a false idea that investing in stocks can lead to a steady, constant gain profile.

To sum up our outlook for 2019 in terms of end of year projections, the word “grim” comes to mind. Bear Markets follow Bull Markets, Raising Rates pop bubbles, the 2008 excess was never dealt with, and on and on and on. Clearly, the most bullish possible prediction anyone looking at facts could possibly make is that the next down phase in the market might come a bit later (2020 anyone?) rather than sooner.

Naturally, that is exactly what the “pessimistic” pundits are predicting. Far from pessimistic in reality, this is the most wildly optimistic, bullish possible take on the current juncture imaginable. Perfect for the true contrarian outlook which points toward a real Bear Market, sooner rather than later.

This is not to say that it looks like all gloom and doom for the coming year(s). There are exciting changes afoot, particularly in media and digital communication, and, as with all times of great change, the aftermath of the coming storm points toward a cleansing and realignment of world economies and cultures. Bring it on…….

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