Tag Archives: China

Rising authoritarianism and worsening climate change share a fossil-fueled secret

Around the world, many countries are becoming less democratic. This backsliding on democracy and “creeping authoritarianism,” as the U.S. State Department puts it, is often supported by the same industries that are escalating climate change.

In my new book, “Global Burning: Rising Antidemocracy and the Climate Crisis,” I lay out connections between these industries and the politicians who are both stalling action on climate change and diminishing democracy.

It’s a dangerous shift, both for representative government and for the future climate.

Corporate capture of environmental politics

In democratic systems, elected leaders are expected to protect the public’s interests, including from exploitation by corporations. They do this primarily through policies designed to secure public goods, such as clean air and unpolluted water, or to protect human welfare, such as good working conditions and minimum wages. But in recent decades, this core democratic principle that prioritizes citizens over corporate profits has been aggressively undermined.

Today, it’s easy to find political leaders – on both the political right and left – working on behalf of corporations in energy, finance, agribusiness, technology, military and pharmaceutical sectors, and not always in the public interest. These multinational companies help fund their political careers and election campaigns to keep them in office.

In the U.S., this relationship was cemented by the Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in Citizens United. The decision allowed almost unlimited spending by corporations and wealthy donors to support the political candidates who best serve their interests. Data shows that candidates with the most outside funding usually win. This has led to increasing corporate influence on politicians and party policies.

When it comes to the political parties, it’s easy to find examples of campaign finance fueling political agendas.

In 1988, when NASA scientist James Hansen testified before a U.S. Senate committee about the greenhouse effect, both the Republican and Democratic parties took climate change seriously. But this attitude quickly diverged. Since the 1990s, the energy sector has heavily financed conservative candidates who have pushed its interests and helped to reduce regulations on the fossil fuel industry. This has enabled the expansion of fossil fuel production and escalated CO2 emissions to dangerous levels.

The industry’s power in shaping policy plays out in examples like the coalition of 19 Republican state attorneys general and coal companies suing to block the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.

At the same time that the energy sector has sought to influence policies on climate change, it has also worked to undermine the public’s understanding of climate science. For instance, records show ExxonMobil participated in a widespread climate-science denial campaign for years, spending more than US$30 million on lobbyists, think tanks and researchers to promote climate-science skepticism. These efforts continue today. A 2019 report found the five largest oil companies had spent over $1 billion on misleading climate-related lobbying and branding campaigns over the previous three years.

The energy industry has in effect captured the democratic political process and prevented enactment of effective climate policies.

Corporate interests have also fueled a surge in well-financed antidemocratic leaders who are willing to stall and even dismantle existing climate policies and regulations. These political leaders’ tactics have escalated public health crises, and in some cases, human rights abuses.

Brazil, Australia and the US

Many deeply antidemocratic governments are tied to oil, gas and other extractive industries that are driving climate change, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and China.

In “Global Burning,” I explore how three leaders of traditionally democratic countries – Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Scott Morrison of Australia and Donald Trump in the U.S. – came to power on anti-environment and nationalist platforms appealing to an extreme-right populist base and extractive corporations that are driving climate change. While the political landscape of each country is different, the three leaders have important commonalities.

Bolsonaro, Morrison and Trump all depend on extractive corporations to fund electoral campaigns and keep them in office or, in the case of Trump, get reelected.

For instance, Bolsonaro’s power depends on support from a powerful right-wing association of landowners and farmers called the União Democrática Ruralista, or UDR. This association reflects the interests of foreign investors and specifically the multibillion-dollar mining and agribusiness sectors. Bolsonaro promised that if elected in 2019, he would dismantle environmental protections and open, in the name of economic progress, industrial-scale soybean production and cattle grazing in the Amazon rainforest. Both contribute to climate change and deforestation in a fragile region considered crucial for keeping carbon out of the atmosphere.

Bolsonaro, Morrison and Trump are all openly skeptical of climate science. Not surprisingly, all have ignored, weakened or dismantled environmental protection regulations. In Brazil, that led to accelerated deforestation and large swaths of Amazon rainforest burning.

In Australia, Morrison’s government ignored widespread public and scientific opposition and opened the controversial Adani Carmichael mine, one of the largest coal mines in the world. The mine will impact public health and the climate and threatens the Great Barrier Reef as temperatures rise and ports are expanded along the coast.

Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement – a move opposed by a majority of Americans – rolled back over 100 laws meant to protect the environment and opened national parks to fossil fuel drilling and mining.

Notably, all three leaders have worked, sometimes together, against international efforts to stop climate change. At the United Nations climate talks in Spain in 2019, Costa Rica’s minister for environment and energy at the time, Carlos Manuel Rodriguez, blamed Brazil, Australia and the U.S. for blocking efforts to tackle climate injustice linked to global warming.

Brazil, Australia and the U.S. are not unique in these responses to climate change. Around the world, there have been similar convergences of antidemocratic leaders who are financed by extractive corporations and who implement anti-environment laws and policies that defend corporate profits. New to the current moment is that these leaders openly use state power against their own citizens to secure corporate land grabs to build dams, lay pipelines, dig mines and log forests.

For example, Trump supported the deployment of the National Guard to disperse Native Americans and environmental activists protesting the Dakota Access Pipeline, a project that he had personally been invested in. His administration also proposed harsher penalties for pipeline protesters that echoed legislation promoted by the American Legislative Exchange Council, whose members include lawmakers and lobbyists for the oil industry. Several Republican-led states enacted similar anti-protest laws.

Under Bolsonaro, Brazil has changed laws in ways that embolden land grabbers to push small farmers and Indigenous people off their land in the rainforest.

What can people do about it?

Fortunately, there is a lot that people can do to protect democracy and the climate.

Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy and reducing the destruction of forests can cut greenhouse gas emissions. The biggest obstacles, a recent U.N. climate report noted, are national leaders who are unwilling to regulate fossil fuel corporations, reduce greenhouse gas emissions or plan for renewable energy production.

The path forward, as I see it, involves voters pushing back on the global trend toward authoritarianism, as Slovenia did in April 2022, and pushing forward on replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy. People can reclaim their democratic rights and vote out anti-environment governments whose power depends on prioritizing extractive capitalism over the best interests of their citizens and our collective humanity.

Eve Darian-Smith, Professor of Global and International Studies, University of California, Irvine

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Beijing Olympics may get points for boosting China’s international reputation, but Games are definitely gold for Xi Jinping’s standing at home

Above: Photo / collage / Lynxotic / unsplash / Adobe Stock

The 2022 Winter Games in Beijing provide many benefits for China, and really don’t have any downsides for the country.

For China’s leader, Xi Jinping, the most important result of the Games will likely be their impact on his domestic audience, as Chinese media coverage of the Games will be highly nationalistic and laudatory, aimed at impressing the Chinese people. To this home audience, the spectacle of the Games reinforces government propaganda about China’s success and progress toward achieving the “Chinese Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

But I don’t predict the 2022 Games will have the same effect, either domestically or internationally, that the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics had, partially because the Winter Olympics are smaller and the weather is harsher, and partially because 2008 was the first time China hosted the Olympics.

In 2008, stunning opening ceremonies including 5,000 syncopated dancers telling a stylized story of 5,000 years of Chinese history astonished the international audience. The power of that first time cannot be repeated. https://www.youtube.com/embed/T9PmD3K1eJc?wmode=transparent&start=0 CCTV+, a China state video news agency, issued video of rehearsals for the 2022 Olympics opening ceremony on Jan. 25, 2021.

Nonetheless, China has spared no expense to prepare, with a report from Insider pegging the total cost “in excess of US$38.5 billion, 24 times the country’s initial budget of $1.6 billion.” As with everything China does, when it wants to occupy the center stage internationally, it will put on a big show.

The domestic payoff of the Olympics matters because China will face a trying year in 2022. Xi is seeking an unprecedented third term as general-secretary of the Communist Party. The nation’s economy is slowing. International opposition to China’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and to its aggressive foreign policy is growing. Xi is hoping that the “bread and circuses” diversionary aspect of the Games will help him overcome the stresses of this year and advance his political standing.

Domestic standing is crucial focus

Chinese leaders care about improving the nation’s international status, but they’re already working from a position of relative strength. China’s rise internationally, especially since 2008, is undeniable. Its status as the number two power in the world is almost universally acknowledged.

As a scholar of Chinese politics and foreign policy, I believe that Xi wants the Games to impress the world.

But that is less important to him than the domestic effect of the Games.

China is not traditionally strong in winter sports. But the country has invested heavily in preparing increasingly competitive teams for these Games. The success of Chinese athletes at the Games will enhance China’s reputation and thus Chinese citizens’ sense of pride. In turn, this will mute competition from Xi’s opposition within the Chinese Communist Party.

FreeSki world champion Eileen Gu chose to compete for China – her mother is Chinese – and not the U.S., where she was born and is a citizen. Her choice may yield golds in areas where China is not a strong competitor.

Her decision also reverberates with Xi’s call on all ethnic Chinese worldwide to aid China’s development. Chinese domestic propaganda will highlight how she chose China over the U.S., and implicitly urge others to do the same.

Burying dissent

In the run-up to the August 2008 Summer Games, China faced widespread human rights criticism for its support for the Sudanese government’s crimes against humanity in Darfur and its suppression of massive protests by Tibetans.

The breathtaking opening ceremonies and the successful Games muted the criticisms. When the global financial crisis erupted the next month, the Games were taken by the Chinese people as a symbol of China’s ascendence, and the financial crisis as a sign of the United States’ decline.

Similarly, in the run-up to 2022, China’s human rights practices are under heavy fire, especially for its mass incarcerations in Xinjiang and suppression of basic rights in Hong Kong.

The Winter Games may not have the symbolic power of the 2008 Olympics. But human rights will likely not receive much attention despite full-page advertisements in The New York Times condemning China’s human rights record and urging U.S. companies to not buy ads on NBC, the television network carrying the Olympics in the U.S.

Among the elements which help Xi achieve the propaganda and political goals he wants: the threat from COVID-19.


No spectators from the general public will attend the events. Athletes, officials and journalists will be kept in a small geographic bubble to ensure that they will not bring COVID-19 to China nor spread it once there. Journalists will neither have the ability to interview ordinary Chinese people, nor any chance to investigate any non-Olympics-related news stories.

There may be individual acts of protest by some non-Chinese athletes against Chinese human rights practices. But those protests will not be shown on Chinese television, and the protesters will likely be forced to leave China. The Washington Post reported that in late January, Yang Shu, a member of China’s Olympic Organizing Committee, said in a press conference that “Any expression that is in line with the Olympic spirit I’m sure will be protected … Any behavior or speech that is against the Olympic spirit, especially against the Chinese laws and regulations, are also subject to certain punishment.”

With no spectators and a highly controlled environment for the athletes and foreign observers, there is little chance for significant demonstrations to break out.

What’s the payoff?

China spent billions to construct the sites for the events and it will use untold millions of gallons of water to manufacture artificial snow for the skiing competitions. Winter is the dry season in Beijing, and snowfall is rare despite the very cold temperatures.

The costs may produce some grumbling by environmentally and fiscally concerned Chinese which will quickly be suppressed. And if the Chinese team performs well, these complaints may be seen as unpatriotic.

For Xi Jinping and the rest of Chinese leadership, the gains of the Olympics are immediate, and the costs are diffuse and longer-term. In the end they will – through propaganda and the suppression of dissent – tell a story of triumph to their domestic audience, which makes holding the Olympic Games useful for their political purposes.

David Bachman, Henry M. Jackson Professor of International Studies, University of Washington

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


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China Central Bank declares Bitcoin & all crypto transactions illegal

China is at the forefront of government opposition to cryptocurrencies

The central bank of China stated as a declaration that all transactions involving Bitcoin and any “virtual” currencies illegal, according to the AP.

This seems to be an escalation of the various methods being used to block and prohibit the use of any currency or “money” outside the direct control of the Chinese government.

In a notice released by the central bank the reasoning was elaborated on – stating that digital currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and others disrupt the current financial system and encourage and help facilitate money-laundering and other crimes.

“Virtual currency derivative transactions are all illegal financial activities and are strictly prohibited,”

–the People’s Bank of China

The price of Bitcoin fell, to $41,180, in the hours after the announcement. Other major cryptocurrencies also fell. . Ethereum dropped almost 10%, falling from $3,100 to around $2,758.

Those levels appeared to be a short term low as there has been a recovery bounce since the initial reaction selloff.

China is gearing up for it’s own ‘innovations’ involving digital currencies and transactions

This clampdown follows the banning of Bitcoin mining and an exodus of a large number of Chinese mining operations, many relocating to the US, Europe, Southeast Asia and elsewhere. At the peak, Chinese miners accounted for around 3/4 of the world’s electricity consumption related to crypto mining, according to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption index.

That share is still the highest, though far lower, with the USA being the second largest consumer of electricity used for Bitcoin mining.

There is a worldwide “showdown” of sorts building, with cryptocurrency adherents touting, often with great resolve, the privacy, anonymity and “freedom” of using the coins, while many governments, China, and Turkey being outspoken, consider the potential losses that could come from allowing private actors to control financial transactions.

Although fiat currencies all have cash, paper bills, that can also be used anonymously, the potential criminal laundering has government controls and laws in place to minimize (or at least attempt to minimize) the magnitude of the problem.

tumbles

Governments getting increasingly worried as crypto adoption continues to expand worldwide

Many governments, including the People’s Bank of China, are developing electronic versions of the local fiat currency, such as China’s yuan for example. to facilitate cashless transactions which, unlike with Bitcoin, can be more easily tracked and controlled by the local authorities, communist or otherwise.

Calls and warning are also building with Regulators in many countries, including the US, warning of the dangers and emphasizing that they want cryptocurrencies to have greater oversight.

For example, Gary Gensler, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said that investors need more protection in the cryptocurrency market, calling the current state of the largely unregulated market “rife with fraud, scams and abuse” and compared it to the “Wild West.”

The SEC has already cracked down on cases of alleged freud involving crypto, but Gensler believes that the agency will need more authority from Congress to and funding to adequately regulate the market..

As a result, miners have been moving operations out of China.

Two years ago, China alone accounted for around three-quarters of all the electricity used for crypto mining, by far the most in the world, according to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption index.

Expect more government announcements involving crypto and new ways to try to control or inhibit its proliferation

The looming showdown appears heading for a significant and dangerous climax, with both sides, crypto enthusiasts and private holders and users of the coins on the one side, and, in some cases, terrified governments on the other wanting to outlaw and stamp out the entire sector.

In the US this will be difficult, with so many high profile and powerful individuals and companies already embracing the idea that the future will contain, at least for the foreseeable time frame, both the government controlled fiat system and the surging and diverse cryptocurrency systems.


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These Extreme Weather Events are a preview of the Coming Climate Disasters

Above: Photo Collage – Lyxotic

New Orleans, Lake Tahoe, NYC – that’s just this week and just in the US… and a drought in the west that is a serious growing threat

The warnings are coming hard and heavy after multiple previous and eerily similar catastrophes, only they just keep getting more severe. Each one is a unique event and each has a litany and list of records that smash all prior statistics since record keeping began.

“Hottest month ever”, “most rainfall in an hour ever recorded”, “worst flood in NY history”, these hyperbolic sounding statements are not hyperbole at all, just facts, but since they are becoming a nearly constant refrain, the entire situation appears surreal.

Journalists use words like “dystopian” and twitter users compare photos and general panic to the climate disaster movie “The Day After Tomorrow” and note that the current reality is already scarier than what the movie was able to convey.

Underneath the shock is a layer of manufactured apathy

Even as the signs of an expanding and accelerating worldwide disaster are more obvious, season by season, month by month and even day by day, there is, nevertheless, a kind of paralysis surrounding the fear.

Fossil fuel subsidies continue to be handed out, so many half-measures and excuses are bandied about, and personal, individual responsibility is used as a bludgeon to guilt the populous into a state of inaction.

It’s called a climate emergency because it is an emergency, so act like it, to paraphrase Greta Thunberg. Unfortunately, dire emergencies are not scarce at the moment, and the situation is likely to get worse, meanwhile it is a valid question; what would be done if the climate crisis were actually treated like an emergency?

New York Floods, Ida aftermath, September 2021

Above: Photo: Lyxotic / Adobe Stock

The remnants of Hurricane Ida resulted in extreme dumping of historic levels of rainfall, with Central Park in N.Y.C. receiving 3.15 inches of rain in just one hour. Newark Airport was shut down and many flooded streets in the five boroughs and surrounding areas of New Jersey and Pennsylvania were transformed into virtual rivers. Subway entrances and basement dwellings quickly filled until they overflowed.  

The national Weather Service issued its first ever “flash flood emergency” for the area as well as both NY and NJ leaders issuing states of emergency.

The death toll quickly rose to at least 50 people. Reports of those that were killed mostly died as a result of being flooded in basement living spaces or overtaken by water both inside and outside their vehicles. 

The Climate Crisis is not a movie and a majority has to demand action of Government and Industry: the individual is not to blame

In a way the problem inherently contains the seeds to its own resolution. The current state of climate emergency could have been partially averted, or at least slowed down, had government and, in particular, the fossil fuel industrial complex done more than talk and come up with tricks like greenwashing and propaganda to distract and delay the obvious need to stop carbon (CO2) pollution. The signs were evident for many decades, and some alternative solutions were known for over a century, while the fossil fuel behemoth just kept expanding.

Now, with the crisis getting more extreme and deadly, seemingly by the hour, it will take an equally extreme change in the response – a literal washing away of the status quo that created the problem. That may look like a system wide collapse, bringing down the structure that props up the suicidal stupidity of the current system, or something equally extreme, if real solutions are to have time to have any chance of having an impact.

New Orleans Storm

Hurricane Ida made landfall as a Category 4 Sunday morning (August 30, 2021) also marking the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.  Ida had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph,  just shy of making it a Category 5 (winds greater than 155 mph). Radar approximates that up to about 17 inches of rainfall were recorded just west of New Orleans. 

Over a million customers lost power in Louisiana, making it the 2nd largest power outage in the state since 2000. The outage could leave residents without power for up to six weeks, rendering them helpless for electricity during increasingly hot late summer weather. Numerous streets need power lines raised that were brought down or snapped by Ida’s winds. 

Cantrell, the New Orleans major spoke of voluntary evacuations, particularly for residents that have special needs, seniors or those vulnerable to the heat. 

Extreme weather, ocean temps, rising sea levels with melting ice caps, all connected and all increasingly menacing

It has appeared, unfortunately, for nearly decades as if the predictions of ocean temperature increase and sea level rise would have to continue until multiple major cities are fully submerged before any real steps would begin to combat the causes.

Is that still the case after the four “disaster stories” this week? Was the tragedy and destruction enough to have people begin to actually realize that there are no decades left to “wait and see”?

Caldor / Lake Tahoe Fire

The Caldor Fire has burned around 213,270 acres covering 2 California counties (El Dorado and Amador) and currently only 32% contained (as of September 3rd).  The fires have been active for 19 days according to Cal Fire.   Thousands of  people have been forced to evacuate.  The looming threat of the fires reaching the popular tourist location of South Lake Tahoe are safe for now, however, and flames have been averted. 

The fire created widespread haze and smoke, resulting in extremely hazardous air quality. 

The total number of structures destroyed by the fire is 857 as of Sept 3rd, marking it as the 20th most destructive fire in recorded history for California. 

Monumental Drought in the Western US

All of California is under a drought conditions. 

Water levels from the largest reservoir on the Colorado River and Lake Mead,  which supply drinking and irrigation water to Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, California and Mexico  have reached record low levels.

Regulators now have to make crucial steps to protect another crucial water source, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, the water system that helps to provide 2/3 of CA population, irrigation for agricultural industry as well as state’s norther border with Oregon. 

California residents could be facing future water restriction, however according to Gov. Gavin Newsom it is not likely to be in force until the end of September (the delay could be his attempt to avoid any unpopular mandates before the  Sept 14. Recall Election).

Some drastic measures have been taken so far at National State parks in order to help conserve water including closing bathrooms and showers and shutting off water faucets/fountains.

Four stories just from this week: is this a turning point and a wake up call that we desperately need?

Does New York City, or Miami, or Mumbai have to be permanently flooded or fully submerged before we “notice” and demand action? Or, is now the time to mark the date – September 2021 as the moment that the climate emergency was finally “real”? Will it be seen, understood as imminent, and acted on as an emergency of the magnitude that it already is?


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Peter Thiel’s $5 Billion Bombshell: Hubris and Hypocrisy Beyond all Imagining

Above: Photo Collage / Lynxotic

ProPublica drops a second monumental article based on treasure trove of IRS, SEC & court data

Excellent reporting of tax injustices among the obscenely rich continues with a huge and revelatory piece on Peter Thiel and his “little” Roth IRA scheme. Going well beyond the previous article that detailed how Bezos, Musk, Buffet and others all use loans secured with share holdings to avoid income, and thus avoid paying tax the “Lord of the Roths” is even more explosive.

While the emphasis of the article on Thiel’s Roth IRA takes on the task of trying to somehow compare an “average” investor’s potential gains with the unimaginable magnitude of Thiel’s windfall, this is something that makes sense as a valid perspective, but the obscenity is nearly lost in the opaque fog of numbers beyond comprehension.

For example: your Peter is basically gifted 1.7 million shares by the company he was one of the founders of (along with Elon Musk and the rest of the so called “PayPal Mafia). That “purchase” costing less than $2000 based on the ridiculous price of $0.001 per share was used to found a Roth IRA.

The engineered numbers were no accident: at the time, in 1999, a Roth IRA account had a maximum allowable contribution amount of $2,000. Since the shares were “below fair value”, the fact of which was admitted by PayPal in an SEC filing from the time just before the company went public, the value increased massively, by 227,490% in the first year. Which increased the value of the paltry $2k up to $3.8 million.

Though obviously not enforced, regulations at the time forbade this kind of “stuffing”. Meaning, the initial trade that launched this scheme was possibly illegitimate, if not unlawful. Or, as ProPublica more kindly phrased it: “Investors aren’t allowed to buy assets for less than their true value through an IRA. “

As a matter of fact, according to the article, the “stuffing” was so successful that no further contributions were ever made into the account after that initial 1999 sum.

Since a Roth IRA allows a person to trade stocks within the account tax free, as long as no withdrawals are made, this large but still comprehensible sum was the start of a 20 year use of the tax statutes to build a fortune of over $5 billion without paying a single penny in tax.

Hitting $870 million in value by 2008, by 2019 the tax free enterprise, built on the less than $2000 initial contribution (stock “purchase”), ultimately ballooned to 96 sub-accounts with holdings of $5 billion.

Ok, so that’s the short summary of the mind blowing numbers. For a more detailed account, by all means visit the original article.

The numbers are outrageous, but the entitlement and arrogance is on a whole other level

The part of the story that should spark outrage is not in the numbers but begins where the almost inhuman greed, hubris and hypocrisy at this good fortune grows apace with the size of the tax free bonanza. Because Peter Tiel is not just any run-of-the-mill untaxed billionaire.

The endlessly expanding windfall he received, tax free, did not engender a mindset of charity or gratefulness at his miraculous providence.

Above: Photo Collage / Lynxotic

Instead Thiel, once the wealth lent him a position of power, preached and pushed the idea that the US government, the same one that he was able to avoid paying taxes to, was guilty of over-taxing people like him (and poor people too).

He spent millions of dollars in an effort to influence Republican politicians and groups that have anti-tax agendas, to change the laws in ways that would add even more advantages to his already preposterously privileged position. Then this: as per ProPublica: “In 2016, he became the rare Silicon Valley titan to endorse Donald Trump.”

And, in an arrogance that is as incomprehensible as the size his effortlessly expanding fortune, he espouses the belief that people like him are entitled to these kind of spoils because, after all, without him we might have to live without PayPal and….wait for it…. Facebook.

Yes, you heard that right. In 2004, Thiel used his IRA to buy $500,000 worth of shares in a, then private, company called Facebook, which was the first big outside investment in Zuckerberg’s soon to be massive monstrosity.

By using his IRA funds to buy shares of the start-up he was able to avoid tax on all the future gains of those shares. (ProPublica, in excellent investigative reporting, uncovered this tidbit by combing though Facebook court documents).

So, again, ostensibly, based on his well known statements, we are not only to congratulate him on his clever method of avoiding any taxation whatsoever on the first gambit with the PayPal shares, but we ought to effusively thank him for helping Facebook to become the dangerous purveyor of surveillance and phantom tollbooth Ponzi empire that is it today?

In perhaps one of the greatest illustrations of how power corrupts, this idea that because he was able to amass a fortune on such a massive scale without the burden of any tax whatsoever, he is somehow a hero to be emulated, is the real reason for us to be outraged.

That an average person might be lucky to turn $2000 into $250,000 over two decades, as was illustrated in detail in the article, while Thiel easily turned it into $5 billion, is outrageous, yes.

But the real “crime” is that it was done with zero benefit to anyone except him and other Silicon Valley insiders at companies like PayPal and Facebook.

Could it be argued that Facebook is a gift to humanity? Well, in 2021 that would be a tough argument to put forth without being laughed out of the room. And PayPal? It’s doubtful that Satoshi Nakamoto has to fear competition from any of the PayPal Mafia (including Mr. Musk) when the crown for greatest financial innovator of the century is awarded.

In a revelation that could have received more page inches, the article also exposes a second, possibly more plausible reason, regarding why Thiel went to great lengths to bankrupt Gawker Media, which he blamed for outing him as Gay. That politically convenient motivation could very well have covered up the real reason:

Again, as per ProPublica:

“In a story headlined, “Give Me Liberty or Give Me Taxpayer Money,” Gawker Media, citing anonymous sources, revealed that Thiel held his Facebook investment in a tax-free Roth.”

Companies built on greed and hubris create nothing and, in the end, die

Thiel believes he will live to be 120 years old. Based on his comments and writings he appears to believe that the world would benefit from that eventuality.

But when looking at the companies he helped to build, and the obscene fortune he was rewarded with for binging them into being, it seems like most of us, after accessing his life’s works and “accomplishments”, would be more thankful for the improbability of that dream coming true.

2087? That will be the year that either Utopia or Oblivion will have arrived for humanity and the planet earth. If by a miracle an earthly Utopia comes to be, it is highly unlikely that PayPal, Facebook or Mr. Thiel will have had any hand in bringing it about.

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Clubhouse app: Factions, tribes, safe spaces and flirting collide in an audio only search for recognition and a leg up

Above: Collage by Lynxotic, Original Photo by Rosie Kerr on Unsplash

Clubhouse: Social Audio App, currently iOS only and invitation required

Clubhouse is a fast growing “new” social media sensation that is growing at an amazing rate. It is also constantly morphing in an endless kaleidoscopic experience that comes from an amazing new technology: the conference call.

Exploring the paradox that having no gifs, no photos, no memes, not even a string of text is now the most added social app with the biggest buzz is as good a starting point as any.

Imagine you are unable to text, unable to send or post a photo, unable to speak unless you are called up or invited to be on on stage, need to use your real name for sign-up and must adhere to the specified topics and protocols of each room.

Read more: Mark Zuckerberg Joins ClubHouse: Crashes the App (for a short time)

Sounds restrictive right? But it is this very contrast with other forms of social media that seems, for many, liberating, even transcendent. Once you realize that you are in a room with, in some cases, 12 or so people on stage and thousands of people listening in the audience, its a bit like a panel discussion, but in a smaller rooms it’s like a small gang in Philly circled around an oil drum fire chatting (or conspiring as it were) while they rub their hands together to keep warm.

Next, imagine, in a few years, when apple’s “Animoji” capability is added, perhaps with a body, the ability to walk around with some scenic backgrounds and you have “Ready Player One” in real life.

Obviously gaming platforms approximate this but for non-gamers, as the tech sophistication advances, it becomes more viable and interesting. And it’s the enthusiasm from the public exploding for the speech only version of this that could be key in hastening the realization.

Read more: Apple CEO Tim Cook: ‘A social dilemma, cannot be allowed to become a social catastrophe’

On the other hand, clubhouse users are raving about, while others are lamenting, the intense intimacy that comes with speaking to, or sometimes whispering in, each other’s ears. The ASMR version of a conference call. With an audience.

There are also music rooms and a music mode – a higher fidelity version of a room where singing playing instruments and more is possible. The idea is to eventually do concerts (possibly paid) and even live collaborations and more.

The phenomenal nature and accelerated adoption since the launch is is perhaps just as much a reaction to the chaos and collisions that are so ubiquitous on platforms like Twitter, Instagram and others, as it is a fascination with the “new-yet-old” options enabled by the Clubhouse technology.


UsersDate
1,500May 2020
600,000December 2020
2 millionJanuary 2021
6 millionFebruary 2021
Sources: TechCrunchNew York TimesMashableCNBCMedium.

Add to all this the perfect synchronicity of the first lockdown phase of the pandemic corresponding to the initial public launch in March, 2020 and you have a historic paradigm shift that may well carry forward for years or even decades. Adaptation to new ways of communicating as a necessity and a natural next step.

Read more: The Social Dilemma 2.0: Follow the Money Edition

How to get your account set up and what’s-what in the app

For a basic breakdown: the app is audio only. Once you are invited (or get on the waiting list and are let in by a sponsor) and ready to set up your account you will be prompted for the usual things, username, real name, bio, phone number and so forth. You can also direct-connect a live link for Twitter and Instagram accounts, which is where the “DMs” have to happen since the app has no built in messaging.

Read more: Facebook, Google, Antitrust and the All Pervasive Underestimation of the Big Tech Threat

Once in, you will see there are “rooms” and “clubs”. Rooms are always available and can be joined or created by all members. If you join a “live” room you are, as default, put into the “audience” which has two sub-sections: the “followed by the speakers” section which gives you a kind of front row seat, and the “non-followed” regular audience. The audience members have no microphone button and cannot speak without it.

Source: FortuneAppfigures.

To become a speaker you can click on a “hand” symbol which activates “raise your hand” allowing any “moderator” (designated with a “green bean” asterisk icon) to invite you to the “stage”, which is where the speakers reside.

The moderators do have the power to interrupt a speaker or even kick a speaker back to the audience, thereby removing any speaking privileges.

Read more: Spacex’s Starlink Broadband Speed Goal just went into the Stratosphere

The magic of the app is in this structure, clubhouse etiquette, and the ability to have multi-minds from all walks of life that, generally, choose a topic for the room and then, with the guidance of the moderators, get input from various speakers on stage.

“Clubs” are like permanent rooms that also have signed-up members (some have thousands or tens of thousands of them) and these often have scheduled sessions, weekly, daily or otherwise, in advance.

According to data from Exploding Topics, searches for “clubhouse app” have increased by 99x over the last 6 months. And are up 3250% over the last 90 days.

Source: Exploding Topics.

Above: Photo Collage / Lynxotic / Adobe Stock

The celebrity juice effect; enter Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Robinhood’s CEO, Zendaya and more

Rooms and clubs vary in content style, membership and atmosphere, almost in as many ways as can be imagined.

At the top of the list for the media buzz are the recent “spontaneous” appearances of huge names like Musk & Zuckerberg, Andrew Yang, Zendaya, Guy Kiyosaki and many more.

In these “hot” rooms, the audience is currently capped at five thousand, and in the big demand-surges they create “spillover” rooms which are listen-only and also cap out at five thousand each.

Needless to say, when word spreads that a huge celebrity, especially a tech luminary, is in the house the demand for the room skyrockets. This is also a kind of beta test for the servers and for the potential of the future changes expected for the app: paid content.

Read more: How Apple Created the Tech Universe and it Finally Makes Sense

Various ideas have been floated, including “creator” payments, but it is unclear if there will be an admission fee for certain events-based or high-demand rooms, or if some other system will be used to compensate “star” moderators and content creators.

Since the experience shares some characteristics with podcasts, albeit live, and radio, the professional communities from those industries along with Vloggers, social media marketing pros, influencers, a lots and lots of people in finance, fin-tech and most of all Venture Capital, Angel Investors and Startup mentors are everywhere in the house.

Clubhouse has added a number of notable users over the last few months. Here’s a list of notable people that are currently on the platform:

UserFollowers
Elon Musk240k
Mark Zuckerberg28.8k
21 Savage904k
Drake14.2k
Meek Mill1.1M
Terry Crews16.1k
Michael Ovitz5.1k
Ev Williams15.5k
Soulja Boy31.8k
Source: Backlinko.com

According an article in Medium by Will Oremus as well as another By Casey Newton in The Verge, the initial population of invited members on the app were primarily from tech leaders, tech investors and venture capitalists. Due to this somewhat puzzling choice – as opposed to, for example, college students, there is a feeling that the Clubhouse is built to create a safe space for accomplished, established tech stars and personalities to be on stage as they might at SWSX or CES (more the former), without being heckled by journalists or the audience (which is by definition on mute).

There’s a somewhat conspicuous absence of political rooms or anything related to journalism or digital media, which according to the articles above is potentially by design. Even that has already started to change, however.

With a kind of trade-show, live podcast-feeling and endless variations in topics added to the almost overwhelming changes and expansion of speakers and audiences, any disappointing feelings you may have about using the app are likely to disappear once the next, totally different room or topic is encountered. Like the weather in Montana.

Social status competition that carries over from other platforms is rampant but not all pervasive

At this point, many rooms and clubs are, not surprisingly about making money and / or how to achieve success online, on social media networks in particular. Aa a powerful educational tool, these rooms can seem like you are auditing a lecture or panel discussion at Harvard, or at least your local community college.

At the same time many on stage come across as having an eye on the prize of becoming, by early entry, a clubhouse star, just as everyone saw with TikTok and YouTube beforehand.

And that lust for acceptance and followers (there are no likes or heart emojis to gift) can create an odd mixture of profusely and oft professed love for prospective followers combined with a fear of possible encroachment by lower level competitors looking for status by getting more attention.

Fortunately, as more Rooms and Clubs proliferate, many topics and learning categories have various rooms to choose from, and the ones with the most professional and genuine moderation and room-vibes will likely be the most popular.

No one really knows how the evolution and expansion will manifest, but it will not be dull to watch it unfold, at least not for quite a while.

Politics, controversy and offbeat subject matter are only now beginning to proliferate…

An odd and strange exception to the dearth of political fireworks came in a club session recently that featured a very, very angry man railing against, surprise, the media (and its coverage of the US gov). I won’t mention any names as recording and perhaps quoting from rooms is verboten.

To paraphrase the gist of his wildly eloquent tirade, on a level one might expect from a highly educated technologist, he posited that “because he is very smart” “team fortify” (his coinage for the “blue team” that sounded like shorthand for Democrats and some part of the left) was going to destroy him “reputationally” [sic], “financially and potentially, physically” (meaning he expects to be killed for being too smart) and that his response to that is “Fuk You!”.

He repeated this several times in alternation with his ultra-educated machine-gun word-bullets aimed at an unseen enemy, all with an incredible furor and volume. He never elaborated, during the time I listened in, as to what hits his reputation or finances had taken and seemed to be physically quite alive.

He was surrounded on “stage” by some extremely impressive, talented and articulate people who also seemed somewhat baffled as to why the man was so incredibly upset. No one dared to contradict him or say much except to mirror his highly intelligent ramblings with supportive sounding intellectual elaboration on his larger point, which was something like “the bad guys are expecting to be considered good guys because that are better than the really bad guys.”

There were around 3000 in the silent audience (no clapping or sound of any kind allowed).

The experience of that club session was truly surreal and perhaps a preview of what may come when the android half of the world joins and the most “engaging” characters begin to make waves (and dollars) via this new medium.

Clubhouse (and similar voice and audio based social media networks or features) is here to stay and will only get more interesting

While there are many disappointing reactions that are natural to feel, like how quickly all the biographical pages of members suddenly look like the emoji-filled corollary on Twitter, the fascinating diversity of ideas options and uses far outweigh the negative aspects.

And, although, mirroring an Instagram norm, people religiously compete to see how few others they can follow while amassing thousands of followers themselves (in the belief that status comes from being so desirable that every one needs you but you don’t need anyone else), this may not remain, as Clubhouse, for the most part, does not have much in the way o bikini competitions or other glamor and status seeking options of that type.

For some, it might be just too intense to speak directly with people you’ve never met and perhaps never will, even as hundreds or thousands listen in.

If that’s the case, you can still just pop into a room or join a club on your favorite topic. Once there you can listen, learn and build the confidence to raise your hand and give your 2 cents, or even get invited to be onstage as a featured speaker.

Please tune in for more updates on new features and developments, as this article will be the first in a series on Clubhouse and the new social audio revolution..


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Georgia Election: Biden says if Warnock and Ossoff are elected those 2000 checks will go out the door “immediately”

Without need for hyperbole, Biden emphasizes the importance of voting blue in Georgia to real world problems

As the minutes wind down until the critically important senate runoff elections in Georgia, President-elect Joe Biden said that, if the two Democratic senators are elected, Americans will receive $2,000 COVID-19 relief checks, and implied it could happen very soon:

‘By electing John and the Reverend, you can make an immediate difference in your own lives, the lives of people all across this country, because their election will put an end to the block in Washington of that $2,000 stimulus check, that money that will go out the door immediately to help people who are in real trouble.’

President-elect Joe Biden

What he is referring to, of course, is that fact that while congress passed the higher dollar amount for the stimulus checks, once the bill got to the senate, currently controlled by the Republicans and  Mitch McConnell, the proposed increase was blocked and the previous bill was maintained reducing the checks back to the original $600 figure. 

This transpired, in spite of the fact that Trump, in his usual confused and chaotic style, pressured his own party, over whom he supposedly has absolute power, to vote for the higher amount, and therefore they were forced to defy him in order to block the passage of the higher amount. 

It is unclear if this was some kind of reckless ploy, perhaps an attempt by Trump to make himself seem like the “good guy”, and to force the senate to look bad in comparison, including, for example high profile senators that might, in the future, want to run against him, assuming he is even eligible to run. As has been seen lately (and for a long time before that) anything is possible regarding his motives.

What Biden is saying, though possibly a bit exaggerated regarding the timing, is nevertheless correct, that with a victory by both Jon Ossoff and the Rev. Raphael Warnock the senate would be evenly split with 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans. In that scenario, the vice president, who will be Kamala Harris once she and Biden are sworn-in, will be able to cast any tie-breaking vote as needed, giving the Democrats the narrowest of margins, but enough to push through the stimulus checks and, potentially, the first order of business for the new administration.

Later in the appearance President-elect Joe Biden reiterated:

[CHEERING]

“And that’s not an exaggeration. That is a literal– that’s literally true. If you send John and the Reverend to Washington, those $2,000 checks will go out the door, restoring hope and decency and honor for so many people who are struggling right now. And if you send senators Perdue and Loeffler back to Washington, those checks will never get there. It’s just that simple. The power is literally in your hands.”

PRESIDENT-ELECT JOE BIDEN

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Had too much winning yet? December 14th will be one step closer to Biden’s Inauguration Day

If you like winning, this is your chance to do it, over and over and over…

Never before has a presidential candidate won his election so many times. Never before has a loser found so many ridiculous ways to avoid conceding to the winner. Of course, it is the very fact that a loser has brazenly lied and fabricated nonsense reasons and accusations to contest at every opportunity that has created the possibility for Biden to win, again and again. 

First, Joe Biden won what appeared to be a relatively narrow victory on election day with enough confirmed electoral votes, along with a lead in enough other states to create an impossibility for Trump to get to 270, the margin of votes needed to prevail. 

Next Biden was declared winner in states which had held back in declaring a projected winner. Then the re-counts, court challenges and and final tallies commenced. 

Pennsylvania gave him a win. That was a big win and he became President-elect. Then the Georgia re-count was another time to celebrate his victory. And Arizona, a state he flipped for the first time since 1996, and before that a Republican won there since 1948.

So, get ready everyone, on December 14th there will be another win for Joe Biden. Tired of winning yet? 

In the end Biden will have, barring any absolutely and totally unlikely changes, 306 electoral votes. “A landslide” according to Trump when it was his exact winning number. Of course he did not get more than 80 million popular votes, or vanquish his opponent by more than 6 million. That’s only another unique and first in all history – big big win for Biden.

Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes in 2016. 

A comet, a meteor shower and a total eclipse of the sun (visible in some parts of the Earth) will all occur on December 14th. It also will be the final deadline for the Electoral College to officially confirm Joe Biden as President-elect. Are the stars, planets and even meteors in our solar system feeling like celebrating?

Florida is the only one of the four most populous states that has, as of yet, already been certified. Early in December was the deadline for the other large ones: California, Texas and New York. None of them were ever in doubt, of course.

Talk of “faithless electors” being put into action by Trump is becoming les and less likely by the day. Not 100% off the table but around 99.9999% not gonna happen. 

I wonder if Trump is tired of losing yet? Gas-up the private jet. Moscow’s waiting. 

Electoral College meets on Dec. 14,  and all states must be certified before that, while any challenges to the results must have been resolved by Dec. 8.


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Alibaba’s post-COVID Singles’ Day sales event tops $74 Billion

Above: Photo Collage / Lynxotic

Increased sales showcase China’s recovering economy post-pandemic 

Alibaba Group Holding Limited held its annual Singles’ Day sales event and shattered its 2019 sales.  The event, which is typically held on the 11th of November was extended an additional 3 days and contributed to the large number of sales.  

Read More: PS5 vs. Xbox X – The next-gen consoles to go head to head this week

This year, the shopping extravaganza yielded huge number with the company reporting $75.1 billion dollars (498.2 billion yuan). These numbers have already beaten the record haul that last years Singles’ Day event brought in at $40.5 billion (268.4 billion yuan). 

Although it’s often dubbed as China’s equivalent to Black Friday and Cyber Monday, Singles’ Day is much bigger. This year,  Nov 1-3 kicked off the event, with the sales event ending midnight of 11/11.

Xiaofeng Wang, an analyst for Forrest Market Research commented on the consumer’s post-covid consumption habits, “China’s economy has seen a strong recovery and Chinese consumers’ purchase behaviors have already returned to pre-pandemic levels, if not higher”. 

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1326577603696709632/vid/1280x720/lLdvpq6ECV5ymEkp.mp4?tag=13
Recap of singles’ day 2020 / alibaba group twitter account

A modern China remake of Cyber Monday 

The origin of Singles’ Day comes from the event’s date, 11/11 or “double eleven,” which references the number one as it relates to being single and not in a relationship (one is the loneliest number after all). When it first occurred in 2009, it was a kind of an anti-Valentine’s Day when single people could splurge and purchase gifts for themselves.

 In its more recent years, Singles’ Day has welcomed all, regardless of their relationship status, and has turned into a major online shopping event where consumers across the globe can buy name brand items at discounted prices. 

Because of its worldwide popularity, this ‘single’-day sales event was eventually rebranded into the Global Shopping Festival in 2015 as it became more like a “holiday season celebrated by merchants and consumers worldwide.”

Although Alibaba is a Chinese e-commerce site, nearly half a billion shoppers participate around the world as they bolster global reach through its multiple websites dedicated to handling sales between China and specific global regions, with Hong Kong, US, Australia, UK, and Japan accounting for some of the international buyers that take part. 

Last year, the event’s launch included a countdown celebration gala with big-name musical performances from Jackson Yee, G.E.M. and Taylor Swift.  Due to the stark difference from last year and China still recovering from the pandemic, Alibaba decided to scale back on live events and instead relied on live-streaming. For the 2020 event, pop star Katy Perry made an online appearance to perform one of her hit songs during the gala late Tuesday night. 

Alibaba has reported stronger than previous expected earning for its fiscal second quarter, undoubtedly following China’s ease of the coronavirus lockdown restrictions. 


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Amazon Allegedly Allowing Chinese Sellers to Deceive Consumers and Paralyze US Vendors

Amazon finally Admits to Facilitating Safety Issues and Fakes in Online Product Listings

Chinese products listed on the e-commerce site have been known to present a multitude of issues for US sellers on the platform. Consumers are also put into potential risks whenever purchasing an item from overseas on Amazon’s site. Counterfeitsunsafe goods, and items that lack the necessary US FDA approval, despite including the logo, are among some of the problems that have frequently occurred. 

On the U.S. site, Amazon doesn’t require a seller’s locations to be disclosed, which makes it harder for Chinese sellers to be held accountable when fake and unsafe goods are identified after shipping.

When consumers attempted to sue Amazon in court proceedings in the past, Amazon’s argument was that they held no burden on product liability, claiming that the items in question were neither manufactured nor sold directly by the company and that they merely allowed those items to be listed for sale.

An extremely dangerous case happened when a customer purchased a hoverboard on Amazon from a third party seller and the board exploded and resulted in the buyer’s house catching on fire and burning down. In that 2016 court proceeding, Amazon won the case and was not held responsible.

However, for the first time ever, Amazon is finally admitting that such risks actually exist. The 2018 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) file stated “Under our seller programs, we may be unable to prevent sellers from collecting payments, fraudulently or otherwise, when buyers never receive the products they ordered or when the products received are materially different from the sellers’ descriptions. We also may be unable to prevent sellers in our stores or through other stores from selling unlawful, counterfeit, pirated, or stolen goods, selling goods in an unlawful or unethical manner, violating the proprietary rights of others, or otherwise violating our policies”  

Whether Amazon can be held liable in court for damages that result from this passivity appears to be another story.

Mysterious Third-Party Chinese Vendors Lack Accountability on Amazon’s Seller Platform

Chinese sellers within the Amazon marketplace could represent a significant portion of the third-party sellers. Although Amazon does not publicly disclose any data of sellers’ location on the Amazon.com US site, according to Market Place Pulse, approximately 38% of the top sellers are based in China and 44% of China sellers were calculated among the 5 marketplaces (France, Germany, Italy, UK and Spain). 

The majority of Chinese sellers, more than 79%, utilize Amazon Fulfillment (FBA) services that allow for customers to receive items quickly. This has resulted in US sellers struggling to compete in the market while also allowing customers to experience the same shipping experience regardless of the products’ origin.  

Legitimate US Companies Can’t Compete with Rampant Flock of Fraudulent Chinese Vendors

This insurgence of sellers from China are affecting US sellers that have sold products imported from overseas because they are not able to provide competitive prices against Chinese suppliers that are now selling the same products on the site. 

In an interview with the WSJ, a US based company that sells goose-feather duvets claims that they’ve struggled to compete with Chinese sellers that claim to sell the same quality goods but are counterfeits. This US company bought the Chinese “equivalent” and had the materials tested and found that they were duck feathers, instead of its proclaimed goose-feathers, and were being sold at a fraction of the price.

These deceptive listings not only hurt the customers that believe that they are purchasing one thing but actually receive another, but they are also killing a number of legitimate companies’ chances to make a living. The company brought the testing results to Amazon’s attention and the counterfeits were removed. However, the burden of responsibility in locating vendors that sell “fakes” should not be on the third party seller’s shoulders.

Consumers have also been deceived into thinking a product is great based on 5 star feedback when, in actuality, a string of companies have been proven to directly influence inauthentic reviews by bribing customers with gift cards in exchange for a high rating.  


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Alibaba does $38.3 Billion in 24 hours with the help of Taylor Swift, Mariah Carey and Kim Kardashian

https://f1.media.brightcove.com/12/5392214352001/5392214352001_5860365713001_5860365339001.mp4
MARIAH CAREY AT GLOBAL SHOPPING FESTIVAL 2019

Alibaba Group Holding Limited’s annual Singles’ Day sales event is held on the 11th of November. The origin of Singles’ Day comes from the event’s date, 11/11 or “double eleven,” which references the number one as it relates to being single and not in a relationship (one is the loneliest number after all). When it first occurred in 2009, it was a kind of anti-Valentine’s Day when single people could splurge and purchase gifts for themselves. In its more recent years, Singles’ Day has welcomed all, regardless of their relationship status, and has turned into a major online shopping event where consumers across the globe can buy name brand items at discounted prices. Because of its worldwide popularity, this ‘single’-day sales event was eventually rebranded into the Global Shopping Festival in 2015 as it became more like a “holiday season celebrated by merchants and consumers worldwide.”

This year immediately yielded huge numbers, with the company reporting $17 billion dollars (120.7 billion yuan) in just the first hour and a half alone. The first nine hours has yielded $22 billion dollars (158.31 billion yuan) and many project the sales to beat 2018, which brought Alibaba approximately $30 billion dollars worth of sales from Singles’ Day.

At the moment the clock hit 24 hours and $38.3 billion in GMV

Although it’s often dubbed as China’s equivalent to Black Friday and Cyber Monday, Singles’ Day is much bigger. This year, within the first 68 seconds of the event, Alibaba Group achieved their first $1 billion in sales, and at the half hour mark, they recorded their first $10 billion in sales. After their first 24 hours, they surpassed the previous year’s record of $30.7 billion in sales with approximately $38.4 billion. In comparison, last year’s Black Friday grabbed just under $25 billion in total sales over a five-day period, while Cyber Monday, for example, had less than $8 billion.

Over 200,000 brands are participating, one million new products are on offer and more than 500 million users are expected to participate in this year’s festival – about 100 million more than last year. Estimated consumer savings from brand and platform promotions and coupons are around RMB 50 billion.

global shopping festival 2019 / alibaba group

Although Alibaba is a Chinese e-commerce site, nearly half a billion shoppers participate around the world as they bolster their global reach through their multiple websites dedicated to handling sales between China and specific global regions, with Hong Kong, US, Australia, UK, and Japan accounting for some of the international buyers that take part. 

“This year, both buyers and merchants have more than doubled and we’ve already seen a series of record-breaking moments. We’re looking forward to sharing even more good news.”

Yin Jing, Co-President of Lazada, a Subsidiary of Alibaba Group

The event’s launch included a countdown celebration gala that was broadcasted from the Shanghai Mercedes-Benz Arena. Musical performances from Jackson Yee, G.E.M. and Taylor Swift, along with a live stream with Kim Kardashian, helped to promote sales further on the evening before the big day. Also, something noteworthy about this year’s event is that co-founder and former chairman Jack Ma was not present as he recently resigned in September of this year, which coincidentally lined up with the company’s 20th anniversary since it was first established. 

Alibaba’s CTO Jeff Zhange described the event as an

“Airplane flying at turbo speed.”

Jeff Zhang, CTO of Alibaba

Additionally, he attributed this speed to the company’s biggest focus of making this “airplane” more efficient.

The 2019 event is particularly significant in regards to the continued US and China trade war, with many Chinese companies riddled with uncertainty about the future of their businesses, yet according to what Richard Wong, Head of ICT for APAC, stated to Bloomberg TV, “Alibaba will probably be the one that will be able to circumvent and come out from the trade war in better shape”.


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Stocks Dive, Trump Goes Berserk: It’s Not Sexy, but the Inverted Yield Curve has Never Been Wrong

Stocks decline a day after Trump gave the markets a jolt of optimism…

Truth is, no one knows why stocks bounce one day and collapse the next. Yesterday, the reduction in trade war tensions, due to the postponement of a tariff increase, was credited with the surge in market prices.

Today, all major indices are down around 3%, while the VIX, known as the “fear index” spiked 20% higher, and there are plenty of factors that may have set the sell-off in motion:

This time, it’s the inversion of the yield curve that is given the blame, primarily, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average being down, at the end of Wednesday’s session, over 800 points. Asleep yet?

Don’t worry, this won’t take long: 

The Mysterious Yield Curve, Deconstructed

When shorter dated bonds, bonds that “mature” sooner, have higher yields (pay a higher percentage in interest) than longer dated ones, that’s an inverted yield curve. Inverted, because, it is not “normal” to be paid more for taking less risk, that is to say, holding a bond for a shorter period of time. Also, it’s not logical. 

Unless, in theory, people are seeing the near term risk as higher than the long term one. Which, honestly, may or may not be accurate, but perception is all and all.

And this is not the first inversion lately. For several months, since March, the 3-month yield rose above the 10-year, then again in July and has remained so. However, today it’s the 2-year vs. the 10-year, and it is considered the “main” pair, and that’s what got the ball rolling down hill. 

Extremes are also a concern. For example, the 30-year Treasury yield dropped to it’s lowest rate ever at 2.05%.

And, to top it all off, the snowball begins to roll when the 2-year vs. 10-year curve inverts, particularly due to the history of what happens after this phenomena occurs. 

The R word. Yes, recession. Not sometimes. Always. At least so far. 

Not necessarily right away. The first inversion prior to the 2008 financial crisis was in December of 2005. However, according to the Fed Bank of Cleveland, a recession can generally be expected approximately one year after the yield curve inverts. 

Trump Goes Berserk. Blames Fed Chairman and the “Crazy” Curve!

Does this guy sound worried?

Germany and China Numbers and That Pesky Trade War that Tariff-man loves so much

Ok, that’s pretty much the bond story. Other factors weighing on stock prices? There’s that pesky trade war with China which, yesterday’s jubilation notwithstanding, is not over. Not by a long shot. 

Then, in came the news that Germany’s GDP contracted for the first time in ten years. What has been called the “Golden Decade” for the mighty Teutonic economy, the world’s 4th largest, is now officially at an end. 

This, again, ties back to the trade wars as Germany is an export driven economy and exports to the US and China, (who, as we know are locked in their battle over trade) primarily and mainly cars. Car sales, particularly in China, are very weak. In China the sales figure have gone down for the last 13 months. 

Also in China, industrial production, it was announced, in July of 2019 was weaker than for the same month in 2018. Still a positive number, mind you, at 4.8%, but the lowest growth percentage in 17 years. 

Other economic numbers for the Chinese economy, also announced today, were weak in many key segments. Retail sales were less than expected and unemployment is on the rise. All in all, a gloomy report for what has been the rising star on the world stage in terms of growth. 

Plenty of Triggers, not many Rainbows

So, if we are looking for reasons why people in the stock markets, generally, might be in the mood to sell, we can point to these factors, not to mention political dangers in Asia with the ongoing Hong Kong protests, and tension. 

Although sometimes people sell just to sell (often politely called “profit taking”) this appears to be something else. 

Also, while it is too early to say that any positive effect will arise in trade talks, with the US and China both feeling weaker and therefore more accommodating, that is, at least one possible silver lining. 

Another is that, for the first time in all recorded history of the bond market, the inversion might not lead to a recession, after all.


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Dow Drops 925 Intraday on Trump’s Tariffs and Yuan Devaluation

photo montage / Lynxotic

Bonds Hit Record Low Yields in Wild Wall Street Action

The carrot is gone and the sticks are out. After Trump’s now infamous tweet late last week that set markets in the US tumbling, now, the other shoe is dropping as China’s retaliation plans are revealed.

After Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion of China goods entering the US, to be levied starting September 1st, China has already implemented a response.

First, the People’s Bank of China, which is the equivalent of the US Fed, allowed the yuan to fall below the peg of 7 to the dollar that has stood as a psychological barrier and is considered an important level to maintain.

Lowering the currency exchange rate has the effect of countering the tariff by increasing the number of yuan generated by dollar denominated exports.

Naturally there are more complex peripheral and ancillary effects that will be debated by economists until the end of time.

The People’s Bank, for what it’s worth, claimed that the drop was “driven and determined” by market forces.

The yuan is now at its lowest point relative to the dollar since 2008.

A second form of retaliation that China appears likely to implement is the reduction of or an outright halt on purchase of US agricultural products.

An increase in the quantities of US agricultural products was one of the concessions negotiated during the recent talks with China during the G-20 summit.

Trump tweeted his displeasure at the lack of follow-through on this promise:

And seemed to imply that this lack of cooperation was possibly the trigger behind his sudden decision to announce the 10% increase in tariffs.

With the US States that comprise the bulk of the large farmers that would be most affected by this issue being the same States that helped Trump win a narrow victory in the Electoral College in 2016, this is a “counterpunch” that will likely not sit well with the current resident of the White House.

These small steps, partly perhaps only threats, partly already in effect, are but a tiny slice of possible retaliation by the Middle Kingdom.

Tariff-Man Joins Circular Firing Squad

Tariff-Man is learning, apparently very slowly, some of the many reasons that Trade Wars are famous for not having any winning countries, but rather, are just a “circular firing squad” which produces only losers.

A common boast throughout the Trump Administrations tenure has been that the stock market is at or near all time highs and that he himself is the sole reason it is. With his trade policies being widely blamed for dramatic market losses that boast may have to be taken out of his toolkit, at least for the foreseeable future.

If today’s responses from China, followed by the stock market reaction, are any indication of where we are headed, it looks to be a bumpy Fall with September and October being statistically dangerous months for the financial markets, in general .


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Update: Europe Markets Down, China Responds, Tariff-Man Threats Reverberate

Photo Montage / Lynxotic

Additional 10% Tariffs on $300 Billion will Commence September 1st…

Germany’s DAX down 2.5% while the Hang Seng Index loses 2.35% after Trump’s Tweets and Threats. China says they will respond in kind: “If the U.S. is going to implement the additional tariffs, China will have to take necessary countermeasures,” Hua Chunying, China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said at a briefing in Beijing on Friday: “China won’t accept any maximum pressure, threat, or blackmailing, and won’t compromise at all on major principle matters…”

The DJIA was up more than 300 points on Thursday, when the announcement was made, then it ultimately ended the session down 280. The new tariffs are on the 300 billion in goods that have been, until this point, coming into the country without a toll. There are also 250 billion in Chinese goods that already have a 25% levy attached.

Recent trade negotiations in Shanghai concluded on Wednesday with little or no progress. Talks are scheduled to resume in September.

Speaking on July 30th, before reporters Trump speculated that China may be thinking of delaying a resolution until after the election in 2020, saying:

“They would just love if I got defeated so they could deal with somebody like Elizabeth Warren or Sleepy Joe Biden…. They’ll pray that Trump loses. And then they’ll make a deal with a stiff, somebody that doesn’t know what they’re doing like Obama and Biden, like all the presidents before.”

Donald J. Trump

Calling the tariff a “small additional levy” Trump also said in a series of tweets that China’s promise to buy large amounts of agricultural products from the US, was not kept.

While speaking to reporters this afternoon at the White House, he also threatened to lift the percentage to 25% and beyond, “But we are not looking to do that, necessarily”.

Products that will be included in this new batch of tariffed goods will be consumer electronics such as iPhones, toys and shoes, among other items.

There was some surprise noted, as the meetings and discussions in Shanghai appeared to end on a somewhat positive note, initially. Now, with this announcement, there is a sense of the talks having fallen short of any progress at all.

Fallout of the Trade War to Begin Hitting Home

Trump continues to claim that China will pay these levies, although studies have shown that the consumer in the US will ultimately pay through higher costs on all tariffed goods. The higher prices will also harm sellers in the US due to a reduced volume of sales.

While there is sill also a lot of “carrot” talk, how the negotiations can also take a turn for the better at any time, coming from both sides, it does not appear that there is much substance to be gleaned from these pronouncements.

Since the percentage of some of the products that will be affected, such as toys, include as high as 85% currently coming from China, these tariffs can have a substantial effect on the marketplace.

Also, possibly unintended beneficiaries to the trade war are neighboring countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia, that are already showing signs of increased activity due to the shifting of origin of manufacturing to those countries in order to avoid the levies.

Tariff-man is staying true to his self-given moniker and in September, as the next wave hits, it is yet to be seen what the economic effects will be, either in China or here in the US.


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Trump Topples Rally with Tariffs: Dow Drops Nearly 600 Intraday

10% on $300 Billion will Commence September 1st…

The DJIA was up more than 300 points when the announcement was made, then it ultimately ended the session down 280. The new tariffs are on the 300 billion in goods that have been, until this point, coming into the country without a toll. There are also 250 billion in Chinese goods that already have a 25% levy attached.

Recent trade negotiations in Shanghai concluded on Wednesday with little or no progress. Talks are scheduled to resume in September.

Speaking on July 30th, before reporters Trump speculated that China may be thinking of delaying a resolution until after the election in 2020, saying:

“They would just love if I got defeated so they could deal with somebody like Elizabeth Warren or Sleepy Joe Biden…. They’ll pray that Trump loses. And then they’ll make a deal with a stiff, somebody that doesn’t know what they’re doing like Obama and Biden, like all the presidents before.”

Donald J. Trump

Calling the tariff a “small additional levy” Trump also said in a series of tweets that China’s promise to buy large amounts of agricultural products from the US, was not kept.

While speaking to reporters this afternoon at the White House, he also threatened to lift the percentage to 25% and beyond, “But we are not looking to do that, necessarily”.

Products that will be included in this new batch of tariffed goods will be consumer electronics such as iPhones, toys and shoes, among other items.

There was some surprise noted, as the meetings and discussions in Shanghai appeared to end on a somewhat positive note, initially. Now, with this announcement, there is a sense of the talks having fallen short of any progress at all.

Fallout of the Trade War to Begin Hitting Home

Trump continues to claim that China will pay these levies, although studies have shown that the consumer in the US will ultimately pay through higher costs on all tariffed goods. The higher prices will also harm sellers in the US due to a reduced volume of sales.

While there is sill also a lot of “carrot” talk, how the negotiations can also take a turn for the better at any time, coming from both sides, it does not appear that there is much substance to be gleaned from these pronouncements.

Since the percentage of some of the products that will be affected, such as toys, include as high as 85% currently coming from China, these tariffs can have a substantial effect on the marketplace.

Also, possibly unintended beneficiaries to the trade war are neighboring countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia, that are already showing signs of increased activity due to the shifting of origin of manufacturing to those countries in order to avoid the levies.

Tariff-man is staying true to his self-given moniker and in September, as the next wave hits, it is yet to be seen what the economic effects will be, either in China or here in the US.


Find books on Big TechSustainable EnergyEconomics and many other topics at our sister site: Cherrybooks on Bookshop.org

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Trade-War Toddler Triggers Market Meltdown

Dow Drops 700 as China Retaliation Begins

Similar to the business acumen and negotiating prowess he exhibited while losing more than any other U.S. citizen during his “glory days” as a real-estate mogul, Trump is going for broke in the China trade war. Trump lost over a billion dollars between 1985 and 1994, even while writing a book on how to be a genius negotiator.

The latest phase in the Trump trade war started with a typical tweet-storm last Sunday. On the following Tuesday (May 7th) China responded, in Dirty Harry fashion, saying “Don’t even think about it” and “We will not back down”.

China slaps back with $60 Billion in Tariffs on U.S. products to begin on June 1

The list of products is set to contain 5-25% tariffs on approximately five thousand items that will likely include textiles, chemicals, agricultural products and metals. In a hint that this is only the beginning China added that they “will never surrender”, apparently, just for good measure.

In characteristic fashion, Trump tweeted various random comments interlaced with threats and simplistic advice on how U.S. consumers can avoid being affected by the tariffs, claiming that his war is “very good for USA!”.

All from a President that “Doesn’t Know What a Tariff Is

As reported in Esquire there’s a distinct possibility that Trump is out to lunch on trade theory (see billion dollars lost in his personal business deals above for a hint).

We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries.

Trump in recent tweet

While this may sound peachy, his own advisor was forced to clarify:

“Yes, I don’t disagree with that,” said Larry Kudlow, the head of the president’s National Economic Council, when Chris Wallace, host of “Fox News Sunday,” asked him, “It’s U.S. businesses and U.S. consumers who pay, correct?” Kudlow added, “Both sides will pay”

Lawrence Kudlow, head of the president’s National Economic Council, from a Fox News interview

Possible brinksmanship on display as Trump and Xi Jinping plan potential meet at Japan Summit

In a possible set up for both to appear to “rescue” their respective countries from this toddler-made crisis, a potential meeting at the G20 Japan summit, set to begin on June 28th, has been mentioned by the Trump administration.

A deal could be announced during the summit, or even before. However, it is unlikely that this will be much more than jawboning, at least initially, and meant to save face and calm markets while the war, and the Tariffs continue. In the meantime, watch for a possible European entrance into the fray to be next.


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China Responds to Trump Threats: “We Will Not Back Down”

Photo / Monique Ly

Dow swoons again on news; down 400 points in early trading

The South China Morning Post reported today that Chinese State Media has responded to the threats in Trump’s tweets from Sunday to raise Tariffs, as well as adding new tariffs on additional goods.

“Things that are unfavourable to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back. Do not even think about it.”

‘Peoples Daily” via wechat

Read More: Owes or Owed: Either Way Trump’s Dealings with Bank of China are Questionable

After first blocking media mentions or screen shots of Trump’s twitter threats early Monday, Beijing responded with defiance and even attempted a bit of theatrics, “Do Not Even Think About It” was the “Dirty Harry-esque” headline in the Hong Kong news outlet’s article cited above.

In spite of the heated rhetoric and brinkmanship from both sides, the Chinese Government still plans to send an envoy to the talks, although no time frame was specified.

From the U.S. perspective, according to the Trump administration, the talks are progressing “too slowly” and a mechanism for holding China accountable to reduce intellectual property violations and open up its economy is as yet undefined.

The harsh stances on either side to date, however, do not rule out the possibility that both can claim “victory” after looking tough at home, after ultimately announcing some kind of agreement to end the tensions and the tariffs. While this may even be the likely outcome, the potential for higher tariff percentages and new levies on other goods (on both sides) are a serious possible reality going forward.

Read more: ’Blowout’ by Rachel Maddow: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth

Quoting the ‘Peoples Daily’ from its WeChat public account: “Things that are unfavourable to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back. Do not even think about it.”


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Dow Futures Drop over 500 points after Trump Threatens on China Trade

“Tariff-Man” talks tuff when traders expect cream puffs

Photo / Adobe Stock – Lynxotic

Nasdaq futures down over 2%

Futures began to tumble when Trump announced he would raise tariffs on $200 Billion in Chinese goods and soon add a levy on $325 billion more. In the largest drop in Futures since January, traders appear to be reacting to the expectation of a positive resolution to the trade tensions, only to be surprised by the escalation by Trump.

Read More: The Dow Drops more than 6% as “Trump Bump” Vanishes into Thin Air

Brinksmanship? Or will both sides make good on threats?

As reported by the Wall Street Journal, China may be pulling out of the talks, which only raises the stakes. It’s entirely possible that both sides are talking tough in an attempt to gain an advantage and claim victory, if and when the talks resume. A sudden positive, “unexpected” reversal on both sides would likely spur a knee jerk market rally, for example, so volatility in the markets appears to be likely for the week ahead.

Needless to say, a trade war escalation would be a serious event for both sides. Although China may feel the negative effects of such an all out Tariff avalanche first, the potential downside for the U.S.A. is not clear and would be by no means insignificant.

Photo / South China Morning Post

With both sides broadcasting extreme positions, on the other hand, the talks may well halt, which would “require” Trump to make good on his threats (in order to save face). Stay Tuned.

Read More: Five New Books about how We can Change the Direction of the USA in November and Beyond


Find books on Big TechSustainable EnergyEconomics and many other topics at our sister site: Cherrybooks on Bookshop.org

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