Bitcoin’s history and origination is an important factor for more than just true believers and maximalists. Created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, and with evidence that it was intended, by its founder, known only as Satoshi Nakamoto, as remedy for the failed system that had nearly collapsed the world economic system at that time.
In a recent CoinDesk post, Nathan Thompson wrote: Bitcoin’s genesis block is historic, not just because it contained the first 50 bitcoins, but because it had a message coded in the hash code: “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.”
The bank bailouts and various financial system failures were integral, then, in the creation and purpose of bitcoin, and one could even say, coins and systems that followed, starting with Ethereum in 2015.
After a few weeks of tweets revolving around the Twitter buyout brouhaha, Elon Musk, in a reply, added, in a more introspective tone than has been seen of late, some of his thoughts on the subject;
The axiomatic error was that housing prices only go up. I don’t support predatory lending, but many of those lenders were severely wounded or didn’t survive.
They dug their own graves – a lesson we should all take to heart, including me.
Interesting timing and a nice shift from the obsession with prices
The recent “crash” and panicked voices over the drop of the bitcoin price below $30k is the unspoken background addressed in this exchange, it appears.
Decrying the erroneous belief that “prices only go up” held by the public at large during the doomed run up to the 2008-2009 crisis could be seen as a hint that, perhaps, prices of assets like Bitcoin, and Tesla shares, for that matter, can not “only go up” and anyone who seeks such a preposterous nirvana is digging their own graves, having failed to learn from all the times in history that fools took the path of peak greed and self-delusion.
Worse, and worth being singled out specifically, are those that profited from the delusion of others in “predatory lending” practices, which Elon Musk “doesn’t support”.
Ultimately for this tweet thread, it was Elon Musk’s Twitter buddy @BillyM2k that nailed it with a series of tweets explicitly spelling out the divergence between the founders and believers in the original, positive, intent of bitcoin and the massive bubble of speculators and scammers that has, in his view unfortunately, grown up around it.
Pointing out that DogeCoin, as an example, was created to highlight the stupidity of speculation and excess greed that came with the avalanche of meme-coins and “shitcoins” etc, that flooded the market and, to a great degree, obscured the original, positive force that bitcoin and decentralized finance was invented to be.
Maybe, some of the various challenges and stumbles that Elon Musk is experiencing lately, seemingly for the first time, after a string of incredible triumphs, culminating with the Person of the Year designation and the buyout launch that is now in limbo, will inspire him to be more reflective and use his powerful position as a “Twitter-sage” to draw more attention to the need for a voice of “reason”, rather than as a cheerleader for the bonfires of vanity and speculation.
Perhaps in a moment of incoherence, this three-tweet set was launched. It is just plain goofy (unless he is buttering up “the right” for after mid-terms…?)
In what looks like some kind of twisted attempt at being diplomatic, Elon Musk’s latest tweet manages to clarify his stance regarding “free-speech“ about as much as a mud bath clarifies a cupcake.
Leading off with a bizarre attack on what he Calls “the far left “, he explains that it is his contention that they “hate everyone including themselves”.
Standing alone this is already a bizarre statement, which seems like a far right talking point, typical of the Joe Rogan school of anti-cancel culture and anti-so-called “woke-mob”.
He follows this up with a disclaimer of sorts, as bland as it can be stating that he is “no fan” of the far right, either.
One would have to be forgiven if they thought that this implied, in its very wording, an actual bias toward the far right which is what many already believe.
Ending his three-tweet soufflé on the flat “Let’s have less hate and more love” the responses, not surprisingly, were a very loving mix of WTF and ????
To be fair, there were also lots like this:
If you ever run for President of United States 🇺🇸 you definitely have my vote 🗳 You are awesome my friend 🙏
But, the way his tweets were so oddly posted, there was definitely a sense among “lefties” that he was biased. And it didn’t take a genius, but merely @cjwalker21, to retort:
It actually seems odd, that Elon Musk would wade (or dive head first) into a “left vs. right” argument that has no hope of any kind of resolution. And pretending that the disagreements are equal on some level and love can just be ratcheted up as if it was cheap rocket fuel, seems odd…
In the US, far left is free healthcare and education, far right is no abortions allowed.
Honestly, if you just look at the numbers, maybe you don’t see taxes as the answer, but considering the company Elon is in (Zuckerberg and Bezos?) there’s clearly something wrong with this picture?
Even for Twitter the reaction is bizarre to the extreme
Wow. The big news came, simple and straightforward, on Monday afternoon. Eastern time. From the official press release: “Twitter, Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an entity wholly owned by Elon Musk, for $54.20 per share in cash in a transaction”
What came next was a tsunami of extreme emotions – mostly negative by casual observation. The happiest seemed to be MAGA dreamers that somehow think that Elon Musk will be all about enabling Trump and his minions to get back into social media shenanigans, a.k.a. “free speech’. Which is, to put it mildly, doubtful.
To get the color of this intense reaction here are just a few example headlines:
Oddly, the most ferocious detractors of this deal are the “left” and those that are also believing the nonsense that somehow this is a big win for the right and for Trump (huh?) and therefore – the friend of my enemy is my enemy, or some such thing.
Naturally, Trump says he would not tweet again even if invited since he has his own useless and failed app. This is the basic problem of 90% of the reactions – the more extreme they are the more ridiculous the assumptions as to what Elon Musk will actually do.
Bots, often controlled by foreign actors, were the issue in 2020, not the tweets by actual people
If you were on twitter in 2020 during the run-up to the election, or in 2016 for that matter, the biggest issue was not the real tweets from Trump and others of his ilk, no matter how stupid and deranged those tweets were.
It was, instead, the thousands of fake accounts amplifying the “message” and creating a wall of lies and disinformation. Those bots would attack any anti-Trump or Pro-Biden (or Pro-Hillary) tweets and applaud all pro-Trump messages with likes, re-tweets etc. And they still exist to today.
They were ridiculously obvious as fake, for anyone who bothered to check, but the massive number and the fact they they were allowed to run-rampant made this stupid, primitive method of perverting actual free speech and behavior bizarrely successful.
This is just one small point. The idea that Elon Musk bought Twitter so that he can re-instate Trump and his bot-army goes against literally everything that is known about him as well as what he has actually said.
Of course anyone can say that Musk is not sincere, etc. But stating unequivocally that he will defeat the bots is a step in the right direction. Bots and fake accounts are epidemic in all social media and are likely tolerated for nefarious reasons – the least negative of which would be that it’s too expensive to care.
The fact that he would make mention of the “shadow ban council” also shows an awareness of the problems associated with algorithms that have agendas that punish and shadow ban at the whim of those in charge as being important- < it is > – that’s a huge plus, at least in terms of transparency or dialog about actual problems that exist.
And let’s not forget that Elon Musk is not beholden to a specific political party (everyone accuses him of being on the other side or of being a libertarian, and that maybe a good fit for some of his expressed views, but he has not specifically aligned himself with a particular party).
What this all boils down to – as alluded to in the title, is that there’s a strong sense that nearly all these opinions and much of the outrage is dead wrong about what will actually happen.
Can Elon Musk ‘Fix’ Twitter?
It would be equally insane, however, to assume that anyone, even the world’s richest person, can just buy Twitter, or any other huge tech platform (Web2 platform) and then fix all the problems.
The idea and service is all that matters to me, and I will do whatever it takes to protect both. Twitter as a company has always been my sole issue and my biggest regret. It has been owned by Wall Street and the ad model. Taking it back from Wall Street is the correct first step.
Can anyone even agree on what Twitter is or what it should be? And so many of the problems that twitter has are baked-in to the whole huge-Web2-platform-defacto-monopoly thing that makes life online so frustrating and, at times, hopeless.
But what a private company, run by a “brash” gazillionaire is, at least, is something different. Well, sort of. That’s where it comes down to a probably crazy experiment in just how much worse can it get… Zuckerberg, Bezos, the Google Twins? Tough acts to follow?
Some have pointed out that Elon Musk will have even more power and control over Twitter than, for example, Zuckerberg has over FaceBook-er-Meta. And that is, for some, a scary and infuriating concept. On the other hand, what if more control, in the hands of someone who at least appears to have a sincere desire to see Twitter succeed as a “Town Square” and communication tool for humanity is actually what it takes to get things on the road to betterville…?
It’s hard to give a guy with $350 billion the benefit of the doubt, I get it
In other words, instead of seeing Twitter as a battleground between left and right, where one or the other should “win”, there is at least the possibility that Elon Musk sees it as much more than that.
That he sees it a bit closer to what it was created to be – a tool for people to communicate is a novel way.
Call it micro-blogging or shit-posting or memeifycation of life or what you will, the idea is, that if it were possible to create a tool that did indeed allow and even encourage actual online free speech is one that could at least be an experiment worth trying.
Is ‘this guy’ the right person to do it? Maybe not. Is a public company, with the explicit primary goal of enriching shareholders a better way? Not so far in any known example.
In fact this seems to be the ‘secret’ that is hiding in plain sight, that an altruistic goal by a super-rich private individual who decides to take over a social media company, to try to do something never done before – might actually be exactly what it takes to begin a new way for people to communicate online.
And, regardless of how skeptical we may be of that idea, the fact is that extreme change is urgently needed – leads to the reality that anything new and different should at least be tolerated and tried before it is condemned and attacked.
Elon Musk believes he is saving the world: are others worthy to claim the same?
Tesla is a luxury car company with an impeccable green pedigree. Even with attempts at a car with mainstream entry level pricing, owning a Tesla is still beyond the reach of many.
Yet the belief in it’s sustainable energy mission, and the far reaching master plan to back it up, make this fact, for many, “forgivable” at least, and in many ways even a boon.
After all, surviving in the face of an extinction level threat of our own making, has to be for a reason. The reason is the beauty and luxurious success of being alive. These are the twin messages that Elon Musk created that led to a business triumph that is about more than money and power.
Apple makes expensive luxury gadgets that facilitate communication, education and entertainment. It could be argued that these, no less than a pleasurable acceleration of a Tesla in “Ludicrous Mode”, are essential to our continued survival and are desperately needed to help us meet the ever growing challenges of our world and its future.
Apple, since the premature demise of Steve Jobs, has not had the same kind of heroic branding of Tesla’s sustainable energy mission. But the iPhone company should be seen in the same light. The many tools for communication and education make Apple just as important as Tesla in creating a more positive future.
With the ongoing success of Apple’s brand, and the rapid and accelerating expansion of its hardware, software and services, the company will undoubtedly have a central role to play in our success or failure as a species going forward. Apart from the mundane marketplace triumphs, there is a deeper story of a mission that should not be overlooked.
Bad guys make good guys look even better
Look at Zuckerberg and Bezos. Would anyone ever mistake either for a savior? Does anyone believe that Zuckerberg wants to build the metaverse to save the world?
Or that Bezos has ambitions toward space travel for anything other than self-aggrandizement and commercial exploitation?
No one does, of course not. Steve Jobs and Elon Musk can (could) emanate natural sincerity and engender the belief that they are on a “holy” mission. And perhaps that ring of truth succeeds because of it’s honestly and authenticity.
Bill Gates just wants to sell you overpriced, inferior software. And lock you into a never ending billing cycle.
America has had a sad history, for the last century, of celebrating charlatans and hucksters like Zuckerberg, Bezos and Gates, and misunderstanding Steve Jobs until he was gone. But it was his vision, finally, that brought Apple to the pinnacle of business success where it stands today.
Elon Musk’s ‘saving the world ethos’ is important to recognize, acknowledge and adopt. We need more visionaries with an explicit aim to improving and uplifting not just winning a battle between equality corrupt adversaries.
Apple is the Tesla of communication and it’s innovative DNA inspired and created by Steve Jobs is just as essential to building a sustainable, and better, world as Tesla & Musk.
The days of celebrating empty, temporary monetary “success” achieved by scurrilous business models must end, now.
The future heroes of sustainable tech, blockchain innovation, Web3 and, yes, even the metaverse must be lauded, supported and acknowledged as they emerge, while the truth of the shortcomings of evil men must be taught to every child.
Because the choice is not between Coke vs. Pepsi, Tesla vs. Ford or Apple vs. Microsoft. The choice is between Utopia or Oblivion. And there is no third way forward.
Ongoing attempts to enable travel between cities within a matter of minutes take form and shape…
A new concept video of the company’s plans for its Hyperloop system has been released, and if realized, the system will be a very fast one. The trains would travel inside a near-vacuum environment within a tube. The absence of air allows for the luxury train-like pods to travel at low power yet at extremely fast speeds, reaching up to 1,080km/hour or 670 mph.
The concept of a Hyperloop system is not a new one, and actually it was Elon Musk that initially brought the idea of developing a hyperloop transportation concept into the mainstream via the Boring Company.
photo / Virgin Hyperloop
Plans to build fully realized systems did not materialize under his watch, perhaps due to his very full agenda with sustainable energy, EVs, the moon and mars all on his plate, and now Virgin appears to be picking up the mantel and aiming for a complete transport system. With jet speeds, comfort of luxury train travel and the flexibility of car individuality the concept projections are, at the very least, beautifully imagined.
While the slick, enjoyable video (below) might make you eager to jump into a pod pronto, the reality, if realized, of the system in some kind of full commercial operations, is projected for 2027 and beyond.
All of this is promised, along with nearly zero emissions. Looking forward using a 30 year time horizon the company’s studies estimated that there could be a reduction CO2 emissions by 2.4 million tons with a connection built between three cities creating $300 billion in overall economic benefits.
This somewhat utopian vision would enable incredibly smooth, clean, cheap transportation between cities and be fast. Really fast. Although it may be easy to scoff at this rosy view of the future – it is exactly the kind of bold utopian vision that will be required if humanity is going to be saved from oblivion. Climate crisis disasters, financial meltdowns, political gridlock and corruption, these are the obvious likely candidates for a believable future.
On the other hand, ideas like universal basic income (paid in bitcoin mined by cell phone), emission free ultra luxurious hi-speed transport systems, powered with renewable energy, a world where scarcity and want are not the measurement of reality, these are the necessities of utopia.
Perhaps it’s time to start thinking it could be possible. Since the alternative is oblivion and extinction, why not?
“It starts off with two people riding a Hyperloop. It ends with hundreds of millions of people riding on a Hyperloop and that’s what the 2020s, the roaring ’20s will be”
Virgin Hyperloop Co-founder and Chief Executive Josh Giegel
One difference between the Virgin Hyperloop and a high-speed maglev train system, for example, is the idea of an individual pod system which would allow for individual pods to break away and head to secondary tubes leading towards a different destination.
Virgin Hyperloop is part of the Virgin empire created by Richard Branson, below he shared the video explaining how travel pods work.
Starlink is way out ahead of the pack, which simultaneously grows in its shadow
The SpaceX’s Starklink satellite internet service has hit a milestone and Elon Musk took to Twitter to share the news. He confirmed that 100,000 terminals have been shipped out. According to an article from Slash Gear there are also more than half a million people on the waitlist globally.
This is all happening at a time when SpaceX is under siege from Jeff Bezos‘ Blue Origin and potential rivals are launching their own satellites to try and catch up. Richard Branson’s Virgin Orbit is going public and hopes to launch satellites for iOT connectivity, while OneWeb recently launched 34 internet satellites into space, while Amazon’s “kuiper” system is still planning its launches to proceed.
100K is huge considering the satellite launches only began back in November 2019 and the initial beta program was only available for select customers a year later.
Starlink’s main goal, also mentioned in Musk’s tweet is for the company to go global and serve the whole world. Currently, service is available for 14 countries: United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Austria, Netherlands, India, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Portugal, Australia and New Zealand.
At the end of Tesla’s AI Day presentation, Musk revealed an unexpected new product, the Tesla Bot.
The humanoid robot would be 5’8″ tall and its main purpose, according to Musk, would be to eliminate dangerous, repetitive, and boring tasks. The prototype is expected to be available some time next year.
The CEO also made a typically bold statement about the future and AI, saying “Essentially, in the future, physical work will be a choice. If you want to do it, you can, but you won’t need to do it.”
Elon finished with an invitation for engineers to join the Tesla team to build the robot.
If you are stuck on the word ‘fiat’ this post can help you (everyone else too)
In a single, 14 word reply to a follower (@TheRealShifo) that asked “Yo Elon what do you think about the peeps who are angry at you because of crypto?” He gave a simple answer that is the often unmentioned, yet most important, question regarding crypto vs. fiat, government issued, currency such as the US dollar.
Looking around during the ongoing frenzy surrounding crypto and digital finance you’ll see countless ‘news” stories and blog posts comparing, or pretending to compare cryptocurrencies, especially the two biggest Bitcoin and Ethereum (as coin sometimes referred to as “Ether”) and they virtually always quote the “price” fluctuations of those coins as a certain number of dollars and cents.
Interestingly I have yet to see any of these “comparisons” use the reverse valuation method, such as, “the US dollar is currently worth .00002703 Bitcoin. Can you imagine everything using that as a standard – CNBC quoting stock prices in Bitcoin, your house is “worth” 32 Bitcoins (if you’re in California, for example).
The reason this comes off sounding strange and ridiculous is that all communication related to the US dollar, which has been a fiat currency since abandoning any “backing” (such as gold) and continuing on by decree (or fiat) of the government with no backing other than than decree, also carries a decree (tacit) not to undermine it in public.
So when Elon says:
“The true battle is between fiat & crypto. On balance, I support the latter.”
The true battle is between fiat & crypto. On balance, I support the latter.
Simple and straightforward and yet intentionally shrouded in mystery
Musk is directly comparing crypto, generally, and fiat currencies around the world that “float” against each other. And by inference, doing so in terms of the difference between a fiat currency like the US Dollar and a crypto currency, like Bitcoin.
A fiat currency is money that is not backed by a physical commodity like gold, but instead backed by the government that issued it. Most modern currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, euro, pound and yen, are fiat money.
from Wikipedia
The term fiat derives from the Latin word fiat, meaning “let it be done” used in the sense of an order, decree or resolution.
— common Definition
The fact that Bitcoin was created as a digital alternative to fiat money stands at the forefront of that point. The fact that it was designed precisely to counter the drawbacks and dangers of a system based on fiat paper money (or digital ledgers of those paper dollars such as your bank balance or any method to keep track of how many “imaginary” paper dollars you “have”) is exactly the real issue at hand.
photo credit: twitter
It’s no secret that many attack those goals and intentions superficially and dismiss the entire discussion with a wave of the hand. They willfully use the complexity of the cryptographic solutions, at the heart of cryptocurrency, as a way to gloss over the real and substantive problems being targeted.
They prey on the ignorance of the majority to try and discount out of hand any value at all for the movement and the various products.
Opening up the door to this exact exchange and characterizing it as a “battle” in one fowl swoop clarifies and simplifies the real issues and the real reason for the existence, and according to many, including Elon Musk, the need for monetary “reform” or change via a shift toward crypto.
Opening up the door to this exact exchange and characterizing it as a “battle” in one fowl-swoop clarifies and simplifies the real issues and the real reason for the existence of, and the need for, monetary “reform” or change via a shift toward crypto.
D.L.
The “price” of Bitcoin or any other crypto currency on any given day has almost nothing whatsoever to do with that debate.
Speculation abounds but not just in Crypto
The “price” is a function of, mostly, speculation and scarcity, due, in the case of Bitcoin to the mining cap, or at least a perceived scarcity. And additionally the various perceived advantages of crypto such as privacy, decentralization, use of block chain systems, etc.
But the price is like the smoke above the battlefield, not the reason for the battle or any indicator who is winning or who is on the side of might or right.
Two major questions that arise from this tweet and the potential shift toward a clearer and simpler dialogue on crypto are the following:
Is crypto generally, and Bitcoin / Ether more specifically established and entrenched enough to withstand the coming backlash from governments that feel threatened and other status quo institutions that will do whatever it takes to discourage or even stamp out crypto usage?
Will the very battle itself, that Elon Musk says is the current “true” battle, bring even more attention to the weaknesses and problems with the current fiat money system and thereby increase, perhaps inadvertently yet massively, the size of the battle and its stakes?
Alternative systems of trade have been tolerated in the US for some time now. How are those air miles doing? What about the chips and points for perks you got at the Indian Casino? Is it too late to outlaw all crypto without causing a revolution in the streets?
The other side of the (clipped) coin
It is truly surprising to see how little is to be found in the media about the deeper reasons for the rise of crypto. How it sometimes seems like direct criticism of fiat currency is almost taboo.
Naturally any internet search will find many “rabbit hole” sources for all kinds of information critical of the current monetary system, the same system the near total collapse of which in 2008 inspired the creation of bitcoin.
It appears that Elon Musk is emphasizing, in a subdued manner, exactly the way that the nonsense-furor over huge price gains or declines is completely missing the actual point. The “true battle”.
Many stories in the media and millions of private comments are currently following a kind of convoluted logic – first the popularity of crypto (which is linked to the unpopularity of the very messed up fiat system) artificially and massively increases prices in many crypto assets.
This “bubble”, a typical outcome of human herding behavior in financial markets, inevitably bursts or sees large setbacks. Then the coin or crypto system itself is blamed for the human stupidity and greed that caused the distortions of price, just like happened in the dot-com bubble and the 2007 housing bubble and subsequent crash.
The difference is that the crypto bubble, in an interesting way, is in reality due to a surge in skepticism toward fiat currencies, a boom in the prevalence of mistrust toward governments and a combination of fear and greed that is growing, not dissipating.
Although many have rightly criticized Elon Musk’s tweets and odd Saturday Night Live appearance, and there is a kind of mini-backlash (growing?) against all things Musk, in this case it is a healthy and wise tweet that we have shown above.
Reframing, or more aptly refocusing the discussion away from prices and speculative profits and back to the real reasons that cryptos were initially created and why it has gained such massive support is a welcome shift. That this reframing comes from the likes of Musk himself, is fitting and who better to put forth a message to simplify and clarify the nature of the real “battle” at hand.
The following video has some interesting data and arguments for, and mainly against, the fiat regime under which we have lived for most of the last century. Although, in a sense, a kind of advertisement for Gold and Silver, the overview is nevertheless accurate and does not exaggerate the dangers and issues that revolve around the fiat system.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Lynxotic does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.
Having two plans to save the world, and being Elon Musk, the questions are fascinating and a bit bizarre
It was bound to happen, sooner or later. So many fantastic triumphs over evil – starting a company with a goal of accelerating sustainable energy and transportation. And then , not only succeeding at that but challenging the fossil fuel industrial complex, beating them, then basically forcing the major automakers across the globe to finally make the shift into all electric vehicles.
And SpaceX, though launching rockets is a messy thing, at least the Starlink Satellite Broadband internet project is something that will help humans all over the earth to decentralize, potentially a much needed option, if or when the coastlines begin to shrink and overpopulated coastal megalopolises are at the bottom of the ocean.
Forever win streak has an end in sight?
But Mars? There are some questions about that. For example, if the Earth rescue is so important, and if it succeeds (please!) then why would anyone want to live in a place like Mars?
Elon Musk replies cryptically to this lovely Mars Clip
As Shannon Stirone wrote in the Atlantic this week: Mars Is a Hellhole. And further: Colonizing the red planet is a ridiculous way to help humanity. Ok. There are issues. It’s a bit cold, an average surface temperature is a deadly 80 degrees below zero according to the article. Wow, and it has no magnetic field to help protect its surface from radiation from the sun or galactic cosmic rays; it has no breathable air.
Those are all enough for anyone to want to double down on the whole “let’s fix the earth” thing.
Unless…. Musk being the genius that he is, could it be that he is hedging his bets? Has he basically already decided that this whole Climate Change thing has already gone too far? And Earth is beyond saving?
Others have pointed out that by putting even a tiny fraction less effort into saving this planet in order to try and colonize another one, one that is 3.7 billion miles away, btw, could jeopardize the slim chance still there that climate change can be slowed, stopped, even reversed before it’s too late.
A list of goals and accomplishments that dovetail nicely into a world saved, or?
So what is the Mars thing really about then? I have to be honest it might be just fine. Give “Emperor Elan” the benefit of the doubt. Tesla’s are damn S3XY and they are also a perfect first step into transforming the world transportation and even energy generation and storage into something sustainable, and that’s downright perfect: utopia and having the time of your life all at once.
So, why not just throw in Mars and a nice little colony there, just for kicks? The whole mental-telepathy, Neurallink, thing, that’s gotta be useful too and, along with AI and Hyper-loop, let’s do it all, shall we?
Perhaps it does all fit together in some way that is invisible to the rest of us. Why, when Earth seems to need all our attention, particularly with political inaction and even obfuscation and attempted sabotage of the paths to a green future, why put so much into Mars right now?
Hopefully the answer is right around the corner, or at least less than 3.7 billion miles away.
A massive broadband infrastructure build-out starting in 2021is confirmed
FCC announced on Monday that the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Phase I auction concluded on November 25, 2020. Now, the 180 winning bidders in the auction were announced, with the 10-year support amount totaling $9.23 billion and covering 5,220,833 locations in 49 states and one territory.
In total, 180 providers yielded an allocation of $9.2 billion out of the $16 billion that was set aside for phase one of the auction. The remaining $6.8 billion that was not allocated will be rolled over into the future phase two auction, the FCC said, which will now have $11.2 billion remaining funds earmarked to establish services in what they term “partially-served areas.”
Among the 180 winning bidders was SpaceX Starlink ($885 Million awarded).
Three other companies were also awarded large sums and all were wireline / fiber based broadband providers: Charter received $1.22 billion; LTD Broadband got $1.32 billion; and Rural Electric Cooperate Consortium, was awarded $1.1 billion.
The rise of real competition, between various providers and, with Starlink, alternative systems, is a big step forward
The real headline here is, as we have been reporting for some time, Starlink will be a major force in increasing competition among internet service providers. And with the added competition, including from 5G and other satellite systems, due to come online this decade, the coverage and speed will move overall internet access in the US to the next level.
The FCC estimates that, due to these awards, only 0.3% of these locations would not receive broadband speeds of at least 100/20 Mbps, and that over 85% are expected to get gigabit-speed broadband.
This main thrust of the FCC program is the increase in service availability in rural areas, and for that, Starlink is particularly well positioned.
While fiber or wireline providers have huge construction costs and difficulty to re-coup those via fees (which is the reason these areas are under-served in the first place) Starlink is building a system that will ultimately have nearly planetary coverage and, with approval in place for 1 million earth stations in the US alone, will be able to provide service to nearly any domestic location.
With a plan to have up to 42,000 satellites in orbit, the ability to serve rural areas with high speed internet at a reasonable cost is an integral strength of the system. The government assistance only makes it more viable and could accelerate starlink’s adoption and buildout.
”This auction was the single largest step ever taken to bridge the digital divide”
— FCC Chairman Ajit Pai
The work-from-home revolution will explode into cost effective areas as the pandemic fades
This news is also confirmation that there will be a trend toward faster cheaper internet access beginning in 2021. Further, that this will likely coincide with a mass exodus, which in reality has already begun, away from overpriced locations such as Silicon valley and “silicon beach” (in LA) to virtually anywhere that costs are favorable, as long as there is also fast enough internet access.
There may even be an urgent need, due to flooding caused by global warming, to move inland away from dangerous costal areas. With the work from home revolution underway and software and internet cloud based jobs increasing exponentially, having inexpensive fast (gigabit+ in best case scenario) broadband internet access will complete the feasibility of this migration.
While these grants, ultimately, may fall short of the funds needed to fully build-out affordable broadband for the entire country (or planet in the case of Starlink), the forces of market competition, including 5G and other space based systems, can kick-in as the viability of living and working in internet related businesses begins to converge.
We structured this innovative and groundbreaking auction to be technologically neutral and to prioritize bids for high-speed, low-latency offerings. We aimed for maximum leverage of taxpayer dollars and for networks that would meet consumers’ increasing broadband needs, and the results show that our strategy worked. This auction was the single largest step ever taken to bridge the digital divide and is another key success for the Commission in its ongoing commitment to universal service. I thank our staff for working so hard and so long to get this auction done on time, particularly during the pandemic.
Musk expects users eventually will be able to maintain connections to satellite network no matter where they are
SpaceX’s Starlink program aims to cover the sky in a constellation of satellites and provide high speed Internet to people all across the globe. The project, which has already run successful private beta tests in rural Washington, and other areas, is just a few dozen satellites away from going public.
When it does, it will hopefully bridge the digital divide in America by bringing online information and communication to even the country’s most remote regions.
However, Starlink’s utility does not end with people living on distant pastures or isolated mountaintops. The satellites also have potential to help people who are living mobile lives.
Yeah, that will be relatively easy, as so few users out in the ocean
On Tuesday, November 3rd, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk Tweeted that boats will have a “relatively easy” time connecting to Starlink, especially with so few people on open water. This means crews that spend weeks at a time at sea will be able to stay connected with their families and the world throughout.
The same logic applies to people who live in RVs or spend lots of time on the road. Whether they are near their home base or at temporary locations, they will likely be able to access the internet from multiple locations, sequentially.
Of course, these seemingly-straightforward answers require a bit of explanation. After all, even if Starlink operates primarily via satellites in space, an Internet connection still requires a return to some grounded station. Luckily, the constellation is set up for the satellites to bounce signals off of each other. Therefore, a ship in the Pacific can connect with one satellite above, which can then link up with another and another until it connects back with the ground. It may sound longwinded, but this hop-scotch-like maneuver should not jeopardize Starlink’s expected speed— 100 megabits+ per second downloads and 40 megabits per second uploads.
Starlink striving for full service to northern US and Canada by end of 2020 and near global coverage by 2021
Likewise, there are questions regarding locations and fees. Right now, Starlink’s beta price is set at $99 per month and the full price remains unknown. However, it would make most sense for SpaceX to charge differently based on location. To serve mobile users, there will likely be a roaming plan that allows them to access the satellites wherever they are.
Yes. Everything is slow to a phased array antenna.
These advancements only broaden the wide utility of Starlink. Not only will it help average people stay connected, but it will also be available to assist first-responders who might have to rescue people at sea or elsewhere off the beaten path.
Starlink is still being built, but SpaceX hopes to have the infrastructure for global coverage sometime next year. And as more and more satellites are launched (up to 12,000 ultimately) the cost could go down while the quality rises.
Subscribe to our newsletter for all the latest updates directly to your inBox.
The Confusion around 5G goes far beyond the political-nonsense conspiracy theories
Most articles on 5G since the Apple iPhone 12 launch event on October 13th have been looking in the rearview mirror to predict the future: 5G will “disappoint” due to the slow buildout, technical limitations of the format, and various issues with all the competing systems and carriers, and these arguments are casting doubt on the much touted potential.
This perspective misses the point on so many levels, it’s difficult to know where to begin to unpack the myriad of misunderstandings.
Much of the technical discussion has been focused on the various flavors of 5G and the associated limitations and advantages of each. The fact that the fastest 5G, which goes by the sub-category moniker millimeter wave, is not instantly available everywhere for the 5G capable iPhones, and that they will not be in the hands of most consumers before next year, has been met with feigned shock and bewilderment.
And further, many highlight the confusion mounting over the various providers and the various flavors: 5G, 5G E, 5G UW or 5G+ as they are designated by “service indicators” on the iPhone 12 itself. Verizon Communications Inc., T-Mobile US Inc. and AT&T Inc. each have their own systems they have developed and are building out – looking for a piece of the 5G market, expected to be around $1.15 trillion by 2025.
First and foremost – since Apple and iPhone are the leader of all innovations in the marketplace – not necessarily by the sheer number of handsets sold, but by the focus on increasing technical and aesthetic quality, and appealing to the top demographic, not to mention the majority of early adopters, it is precisely the fact that, until now, the iPhone 5G handset did not yet exist, that the buildout is not further along.
The fact that, in real-world tests, it is already performing at up to 7 times the fastest previously available connections, was coupled inevitably with the caveat; physical locations where these speeds can be accomplished are currently hard to find.
Due to the technical issues with this ultra-high speed version of 5G; the inability to travel more than very short distances and the lack of ability to penetrate obstacles or walls, the possibility to get these amazing speeds are, at present, more likely to be found at outdoor locations.
This is, admittedly, an odd conundrum, but you can be sure, with the upcoming massive increase in competition for ISP customers, it is one that will find at least some viable solutions very soon. There are many billions at stake for those that can find ways to improve this issue.
“Standing in front of a camera store in South of Market, I got 5G speeds reaching 2,160 megabits a second, which was 2,900 percent faster than 4G. Even where it was a tad slower — behind the Safeway parking lot in the Marina district — the 5G iPhone drew speeds of 668 megabits a second, which was 1,052 percent faster than 4G.”
– Brian X. Chen for the New York Times
The carriers have not had the market to build for, and needed to be pushed by a huge influx of iPhone 12 owners. Then, meaning now, they will begin to compete with one another for that extremely lucrative group of users. That rising competitive battle is not the only one looming on the horizon.
Regardless of the ultimate time frame of the build-out, there is an obvious and very meaningful conclusion that we can reach here: 1 year from now things will look very different in the options available for those who want to work and play with the help of a faster internet connection (meaning, obviously, everybody).
As can be seen from the chart above in early 2020 the US ranked 13th in desktop download speed while mobile speeds ranked even worse coming in at #33 (various sources have US at #10 for fixed broadband). Liechtenstein is nearly 4x faster, on average, than the US. Also note that the highest average is one-tenth to one-twentieth of the eventual “ideal conditions” speeds of 5G.
Failure of the US Broadband infrastructure and the coming shake-up in the ISP system grid-lock
The problem is not a technological one. The US lags behind due to the pseudo-geographical monopolies held by various ISPs and the ability they have enjoyed to be able to gouge customers with high priced, bad service. Lack of competition often results in slow progress, or no progress.
That is all about to change. You don’t need to have a technician to analyze the various 5G systems, or compare carriers chances of “winning” to realize that the very fact that speeds and options are increasing exponentially is going to re-write the map when it comes to who controls the cash-cow subscription gravy train. That system is about to collapse.
In steps Elon, and his little copy-cat-side-kick Jeffy Bezos, and the landscape is about to become unrecognizable
First, 5G speeds rival or exceed the former fixed / desktop speeds which had commanded a premium for the geographically entrenched providers. 5G home systems will be available in many areas that will be competitive in speed, price and convenience.
SpaceX’s Starlink, with nearly 1,000 satellites already in orbit out of an eventual 12,000, with launches continuing almost weekly with 60 in each launch, is a serious project. This ambitious plan will eventually encircle the Earth completely with interconnected satellites that will link through intermediary “ground stations” with up to 1 million planned for USA alone. Each ground station is just under 19 inches (.48 m) across.
“It looks like a UFO on a stick,” according to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk “It’s very important that you don’t need a specialist to install. The goal is for … just two instructions and they can be done in either order: Point at sky, plug in.”
Satellite Broadband, such as SpaceX’s Starlink will not only add ubiquitous 100mbps and higher, low latency coverage, it will also cover the same areas with high population density, major cities, where both current systems and 5G are also focusing.
Exact pricing is as yet unknown, but it is very likely that there will be a high-pitched battle over customers, once the various systems go into the next phase of the rollout. And all of this is not factoring in additional players in 5G and satellite systems.
Longer term (2 years +) there will be major world-wide implications of this shift, toward more and faster options in internet connectivity
The first shift, primarily driven by the geographical independence of satellite broadband, such as Starlink, will be a decentralization of populations at massive scale. While we are looking at a world where, due to the current pandemic countermeasures, WFH a.k.a. work from home is becoming more than a temporary factor. As many as 20 major companies such as Google and Microsoft have announced extended or permanent work-from-home policies as of October 2020.
There are plenty of very serious discussions about what will be done with all the skyscrapers and office buildings once there are no workers to fill the offices. This is not idle chit-chat. A migration has already begun away from the insanely overpriced rents and home prices to take advantage of the work-from-home-anywhere approach.
Extrapolate, based on increased speed and availability of connectivity to millions of locations not currently viable, will soon have internet at minimum speeds rivaling the current world champion Liechtenstein (see above), and you see the beginnings of an exodus of epic proportions. Just in time for economic upheaval, due to the aftermath of the still ongoing global pandemic, and yes, the issues of accelerated global warming, which will, coincidentally, affect costal “elite” cities like Miami, San Francisco, New York and others around the world to a disproportionally large degree.
“The reality is that a technological utopian vision, one where the world is able to shift to sustainable energy and regenerative farming, and create economies based on prosperous and equal distribution of the wealth generated by those systems (along with AI plus robot technology (powered by sustainable clean energy), can only be realized by an acceleration of learning and positive social change. “
-DL
These changes, to be clear, are not all “bad” nor are they all the cause of negative side-effects such as the current covid-19 outbreak.
The reality is that a technological utopian vision, one where the world is able to shift to sustainable energy and regenerative farming, and create economies based on prosperous and equal distribution of the wealth generated by those systems, (along with AI, robot technology powered by sustainable clean energy), can only be realized by an acceleration of learning and positive social change.
Change is urgently needed to build out the human networked-communication-system that will enable the learning and cooperation which is the only hope for the survival of our species. 5G, the iPhone 12 and SpaceX’s Starlink Satellite Broadband are going to be huge factors, in making the first baby-steps toward that change, possible.
