Starlink is way out ahead of the pack, which simultaneously grows in its shadow
The SpaceX’s Starklink satellite internet service has hit a milestone and Elon Musk took to Twitter to share the news. He confirmed that 100,000 terminals have been shipped out. According to an article from Slash Gear there are also more than half a million people on the waitlist globally.
This is all happening at a time when SpaceX is under siege from Jeff Bezos‘ Blue Origin and potential rivals are launching their own satellites to try and catch up. Richard Branson’s Virgin Orbit is going public and hopes to launch satellites for iOT connectivity, while OneWeb recently launched 34 internet satellites into space, while Amazon’s “kuiper” system is still planning its launches to proceed.
100K is huge considering the satellite launches only began back in November 2019 and the initial beta program was only available for select customers a year later.
Starlink’s main goal, also mentioned in Musk’s tweet is for the company to go global and serve the whole world. Currently, service is available for 14 countries: United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Austria, Netherlands, India, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Portugal, Australia and New Zealand.
What began as a “Better Than Nothing Beta” is morphing into to a better than expected sign-up drive
According to SpaceX, there are now more than 1,000 subscribers actively using the service. With its current beta version, the Starlink satellite kit for both domestic and international, users can expect data speeds ranging from 50Mb/s to 150 Mb/s and latency from 20 to 40 ms.
In a response on Twitter, Musk promised that speeds would double to up to 300 Mb/s later this year. He also mentioned that the latency should improve to 20 ms.
“When satellites are far from Earth, latency is high, resulting in poor performance for activities like video calls and online gaming. Starlink satellites are over 60 times closer to Earth than traditional satellites, resulting in lower latency and the ability to support services typically not possible with traditional satellite internet,” based on the Starlink’s website.
Speed will double to ~300Mb/s & latency will drop to ~20ms later this year
The speed is the key and faster (with lower latency) is what everyone needs
300 Mb/s will be a very welcome speed upgrade, particularly for those in low to medium population density areas that are the primary target. Musk noted that those in city and urban areas, cellular will often have more advantages than satellites since those systems will be improving also, with 5g roll outs, for example.
Musk’s goal is to have most of the Earth covered and at least partially subscribed by 2022.
Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it’s about densifying coverage.
Important to note that cellular will always have the advantage in dense urban areas.
Satellites are best for low to medium population density areas.
Those living in rural areas of the UK and using the beta version of the Starlink satellite are already seeing higher-than-originally-promised internet speeds.
Many who had previously only had traditional (traditionally slow and bad that is) satellite internet were astounded by the extent of the improvement, and pleasantly surprised on measurements how fast the service already is, considering there are many continuous improvements yet to come.
According to an interview from one user who lives in Bredgar, Kent, his household’s service often lagged between .05 and 1 Mb/s making simple tasks like streaming Netflix or downloading video games impossible or nearly so. Using Starlink he now averages 175 Mbps to 215 Mbps which a stark difference than his prior service.
For the rest of this year and into the foreseeable future more Starlink satellites are expected to be launched into orbit nearly every week, and the eventual total could reach over 30,000, the number already approved by the FCC (max total 42,000!). It is unclear if that number will be necessary, or ever achieved, but the service will see steady improvements as the total density increases.
Also, Musk has indicated that, beginning in 2022, there will be a new satellite design upgrade featuring laser systems to allow for satellite to satellite interaction. Speeds after those improvements come online might eventually reach 2Gbps which is faster than the terrestrial fiber systems currently available to consumers.
If you want to order, or pre-order with a timeline based on the availability in your area, you can register on the Starlink website. Bear in mind that the program is currently limited to users in select regions in the Northern US, Canada and the UK. The price for the Beta service is $99 a month plus a $499 one-time fee for the equipment.
Game changing ubiquitous broadband en route to you via laster links
At Lynxotic we have been following the development of the Starlink Satellite broadband with keen interest since 2019. In the early days it was all about the plans from various contending companies, though SpaceX was always far ahead in it’s technological system and, due to the spectacular success of SpaceX, as a launching and re-launching behemoth.
Now, with a launch schedule that is industry leading, by far, along with help from additional funding sources, and as the beta test phase continues, this is starting to look like a system that, even by 2022-2024 could impact the world in many of the extreme ways we have been anticipating.
Newest announcement marks more than a milestone, it’s a new game entirely
The first two Starlink satellites, Tintin A and Tintin B, were launched on February 22, 2018. At that time there were many companies with various technical solutions for the best way to create a satellite based broadband internet service.
Starlink at that time was planned to be a unique system using a large number of satellites (up to 42,000, potentially) and an even larger number of small base stations (up to over 1 million). Another system dubbed “LeoSat”, now defunct, had a more ambitious approach, in terms of the speed goals, which was to establish a commercial level “terrestrial backbone in space” using satellites directly connected to each other via lasers.
By putting a router on a satellite and having all the satellites interconnected in space with lasers rather than fiber, LeoSat would create a terrestrial backbone in space with all the features and benefits that traditional terrestrial backbones and networks have — but now with the benefits of space.
-Ronald van der Breggen, former Chief Commercial Officer at LeoSat
The project, which was the most technologically ambitious at the time, in ways that were nearly opposite from SpaceX’s Starlink, failed to hang on to its $2 billion investment commitments, and went under after only six months during the initial start up phase.
Both the technical proposal of using satellites directly connected to each other via laser in order to achieve speeds faster than current terrestrial backbone fiber bases systems, along with the commercial potential of servicing high end business customers, has now seemingly dove-tailed into a typical best-case-scenario for, who else but, you guessed it, Elon Musk and SpaceX.
The void left by LeoSat’s demise left a hole in the future of satellite broadband. And now, the question of who would fill the $2 billion concept-space left by LeoSat, appears to be nearly confirmed by Elon Musk.
Ultimately, the more pertinent question is: ‘Who is offering similar services and can benefit from LeoSat’s demise?”
By taking the key technology that is still at the forefront of satellite development in 2021, and fashioning a way to transition its use into his growing constellation that would eventually incorporate laser links between satellites, in addition to the ground stations, Starlink’s future has suddenly morphed into one with an entirely new scope and potential.
How, when and what will be possible if all continues apace
With a few tweets Elon Musk has caused a stir (surprise) and released enough news to paint a whole new picture of what the future of Starlink and world internet might look like in the coming years.
Over the projected time frame it will require to get to many thousands of satellites launched, even at the current pace of around 120 per month, the system would, conceivably, expand in coverage, speed and performance at a steady pace with 1500 satellites added yearly.
Naturally more launches could speed this up, and it will be an ongoing experiment to determine what kind of coverage and performance are possible as the constellation takes shape with milestones in the build-out during the ongoing process.
One impediment to a rapid race, to the loftiest end goal of worldwide coverage at 10Gbps, is cost. Currently the cost of the laser upgrade is prohibitive.
“Bringing down the cost of the space lasers and producing a lot of them fast is a really hard problem that the team is still working on.”
Having an orbiting 10Gbps terrestrial backbone in space with worldwide access would be a “Ludicrous Mode” for the internet
Really, that’s a huge understatement. The system would be a continuous boon, not only to the current uses for connected human communication, but for uses as yet impossible or barely possible with current systems.
And, oh yes, not only would the speed and connectivity be of a different order of magnitude but it would enable de-centralization of connected humans (WFH, anyone?) on a scale barely imaginable today.
Oddly, this could be a “just-in-time” invention (similar to Musk’s “Plan B” to use a Mars exodus as a final escape from a dying planet) that could enable a transition to rural and sparsely inhabited areas if, or when, global warming puts highly populated coastlines under water all around the world.
The vast problems facing humanity, medical, economic, even political and scientific, could all benefit from more connected communication among the minds that are already working hard to find solutions.
Indeed, it is somehow fitting that Musk, and not a rapacious-greed-monster like Amazon, could add, via SpaceX yet another world-saving tool into his kit. Tesla is already a sustainable energy conglomerate thinly disguised as a S3XY car company, and in a slightly more round-about way, SpaceX is, in essence, the back-up plan in case becoming an interplanetary species is no longer optional after the ravages of the climate crisis.
Now, with Starlink looking like a compatible engine for the acceleration of positive change, via networked communication and education, which is desperately needed as a resource to help drive the first two endeavors, a world reducing trifecta seems possible.
Whatever one may think of Elon Musk’s charismatically quirky personality and twitter feed, right now his enterprises are light years ahead and the reason, beyond once in a century genius, is the right mission and motivation: saving us all from ourselves.
Some key stats:
Current “better than nothing” beta speeds for testing volunteers: 100 to 150 megabits per second.
The long term goal, once the laser link system is fully implemented is to enable speeds of up to 10Gbps (!) Speed estimated are believed to factor in the speed of light being around 50 percent faster through a vacuum (space) than through glass (fiber)
Number of satellites launched to date : 1,023 out of an eventual 42,000 applied for
Coverage: Initially cities and especially rural areas in North America and branching out to worldwide access once the size of the constellation increases enough. Continuous software and hardware updates are planned with a planned life expectancy for each satellite of up to four years, allowing for newer, improved models to replace the retired units.
Once all various components are in place there is a plan to achieve a resilient network utilizing “multiple routing options to every Starlink and Gateway.”
Altitude: low-earth-orbit: SpaceX has applied with the FCC for permission first-generation satellites in orbits from 540 to 570 kilometers (336 to 354 miles), in addition to the originally approved range of 1,100 to 1,325 kilometers (684 to 823 miles). This has annoyed possible competitors (mainly Jeff Bezos’ “Project Kuiper”)
“Since being granted its own ‘license,’ Amazon has engaged in continuous campaign to undermine authorizations from competitors,” SpaceX noted in a statement
If you want to participate in the “Better Than Nothing Beta”, register on the Starlink website to register for the public beta. Please bear in mind that the program is currently limited to users in select regions in the northern US. The price for the Beta service is $99 a month plus a $499 one-time fee for the equipment.
A massive broadband infrastructure build-out starting in 2021is confirmed
FCC announced on Monday that the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Phase I auction concluded on November 25, 2020. Now, the 180 winning bidders in the auction were announced, with the 10-year support amount totaling $9.23 billion and covering 5,220,833 locations in 49 states and one territory.
In total, 180 providers yielded an allocation of $9.2 billion out of the $16 billion that was set aside for phase one of the auction. The remaining $6.8 billion that was not allocated will be rolled over into the future phase two auction, the FCC said, which will now have $11.2 billion remaining funds earmarked to establish services in what they term “partially-served areas.”
Among the 180 winning bidders was SpaceX Starlink ($885 Million awarded).
Three other companies were also awarded large sums and all were wireline / fiber based broadband providers: Charter received $1.22 billion; LTD Broadband got $1.32 billion; and Rural Electric Cooperate Consortium, was awarded $1.1 billion.
The rise of real competition, between various providers and, with Starlink, alternative systems, is a big step forward
The real headline here is, as we have been reporting for some time, Starlink will be a major force in increasing competition among internet service providers. And with the added competition, including from 5G and other satellite systems, due to come online this decade, the coverage and speed will move overall internet access in the US to the next level.
The FCC estimates that, due to these awards, only 0.3% of these locations would not receive broadband speeds of at least 100/20 Mbps, and that over 85% are expected to get gigabit-speed broadband.
This main thrust of the FCC program is the increase in service availability in rural areas, and for that, Starlink is particularly well positioned.
While fiber or wireline providers have huge construction costs and difficulty to re-coup those via fees (which is the reason these areas are under-served in the first place) Starlink is building a system that will ultimately have nearly planetary coverage and, with approval in place for 1 million earth stations in the US alone, will be able to provide service to nearly any domestic location.
With a plan to have up to 42,000 satellites in orbit, the ability to serve rural areas with high speed internet at a reasonable cost is an integral strength of the system. The government assistance only makes it more viable and could accelerate starlink’s adoption and buildout.
”This auction was the single largest step ever taken to bridge the digital divide”
— FCC Chairman Ajit Pai
The work-from-home revolution will explode into cost effective areas as the pandemic fades
This news is also confirmation that there will be a trend toward faster cheaper internet access beginning in 2021. Further, that this will likely coincide with a mass exodus, which in reality has already begun, away from overpriced locations such as Silicon valley and “silicon beach” (in LA) to virtually anywhere that costs are favorable, as long as there is also fast enough internet access.
There may even be an urgent need, due to flooding caused by global warming, to move inland away from dangerous costal areas. With the work from home revolution underway and software and internet cloud based jobs increasing exponentially, having inexpensive fast (gigabit+ in best case scenario) broadband internet access will complete the feasibility of this migration.
While these grants, ultimately, may fall short of the funds needed to fully build-out affordable broadband for the entire country (or planet in the case of Starlink), the forces of market competition, including 5G and other space based systems, can kick-in as the viability of living and working in internet related businesses begins to converge.
We structured this innovative and groundbreaking auction to be technologically neutral and to prioritize bids for high-speed, low-latency offerings. We aimed for maximum leverage of taxpayer dollars and for networks that would meet consumers’ increasing broadband needs, and the results show that our strategy worked. This auction was the single largest step ever taken to bridge the digital divide and is another key success for the Commission in its ongoing commitment to universal service. I thank our staff for working so hard and so long to get this auction done on time, particularly during the pandemic.
Musk expects users eventually will be able to maintain connections to satellite network no matter where they are
SpaceX’s Starlink program aims to cover the sky in a constellation of satellites and provide high speed Internet to people all across the globe. The project, which has already run successful private beta tests in rural Washington, and other areas, is just a few dozen satellites away from going public.
When it does, it will hopefully bridge the digital divide in America by bringing online information and communication to even the country’s most remote regions.
However, Starlink’s utility does not end with people living on distant pastures or isolated mountaintops. The satellites also have potential to help people who are living mobile lives.
Yeah, that will be relatively easy, as so few users out in the ocean
On Tuesday, November 3rd, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk Tweeted that boats will have a “relatively easy” time connecting to Starlink, especially with so few people on open water. This means crews that spend weeks at a time at sea will be able to stay connected with their families and the world throughout.
The same logic applies to people who live in RVs or spend lots of time on the road. Whether they are near their home base or at temporary locations, they will likely be able to access the internet from multiple locations, sequentially.
Of course, these seemingly-straightforward answers require a bit of explanation. After all, even if Starlink operates primarily via satellites in space, an Internet connection still requires a return to some grounded station. Luckily, the constellation is set up for the satellites to bounce signals off of each other. Therefore, a ship in the Pacific can connect with one satellite above, which can then link up with another and another until it connects back with the ground. It may sound longwinded, but this hop-scotch-like maneuver should not jeopardize Starlink’s expected speed— 100 megabits+ per second downloads and 40 megabits per second uploads.
Starlink striving for full service to northern US and Canada by end of 2020 and near global coverage by 2021
Likewise, there are questions regarding locations and fees. Right now, Starlink’s beta price is set at $99 per month and the full price remains unknown. However, it would make most sense for SpaceX to charge differently based on location. To serve mobile users, there will likely be a roaming plan that allows them to access the satellites wherever they are.
Yes. Everything is slow to a phased array antenna.
These advancements only broaden the wide utility of Starlink. Not only will it help average people stay connected, but it will also be available to assist first-responders who might have to rescue people at sea or elsewhere off the beaten path.
Starlink is still being built, but SpaceX hopes to have the infrastructure for global coverage sometime next year. And as more and more satellites are launched (up to 12,000 ultimately) the cost could go down while the quality rises.
Subscribe to our newsletter for all the latest updates directly to your inBox.
