Three Special Elections will Determine the Future of All Life on Earth 

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office in January 2025, Republicans face a precarious House majority, narrowed further by the departure of three GOP representatives: Elise Stefanik (NY-21) and Mike Waltz (FL-06), tapped for roles in Trump’s administration, and Matt Gaetz (FL-01), who resigned amid scandal after withdrawing from consideration for Attorney General. Three special elections—slated for early 2025—could tip the House balance to Democrats, potentially thwarting what critics allege is a coordinated effort to undermine democracy and accelerate climate catastrophe. Here’s what’s at stake.

The Vacancies and Their Implications

New York’s 21st District (NY-21)

• Vacated by: Elise Stefanik, appointed Trump’s White House Chief of Staff.
• Partisan Lean: R+6 (Cook Political Report), a rural district stretching from the Adirondacks to the Canadian border.
• Special Election Date: March 4, 2025.
• Democratic Candidate: Emily Collins, former Plattsburgh mayor and environmental advocate.
• Republican Candidate: Scott Barrett, county executive and Trump loyalist.
• Context: Stefanik’s dominance here masks growing suburban dissent over climate policies. Collins’ focus on renewable energy jobs could mobilize moderates.

Florida’s 6th District (FL-06)
Vacated by: Mike Waltz, named Secretary of Veterans Affairs.
Partisan Lean: R+10 (Cook Political Report), covering Daytona Beach and St. Augustine.
Special Election Date: February 18, 2025.
Democratic Candidate: Jasmine Rivera, Navy veteran and healthcare activist.
Republican Candidate: Carlos Lopez, state legislator and MAGA ally.
Context: Waltz’s military background insulated him from past challenges, but Rivera’s veteran status and opposition to “MAGA extremism” could narrow the gap.

Florida’s 1st District (FL-01)
Vacated by: Matt Gaetz, resigned after a lobbying scandal.
Partisan Lean: R+20 (Cook Political Report), encompassing Pensacola and the Panhandle.
Special Election Date: April 1, 2025 (pending).
Democratic Candidate: Marcus Green, civil rights attorney.
Republican Candidate: Greg Merk, far-right influencer and election denier.
Context: Gaetz’s legal troubles have fractured local GOP unity. Green’s long-shot bid hinges on record youth turnout and anti-Trump backlash.

The Math: A Path to Democratic Control

The 119th Congress began with a 219-216 Republican majority. Losing all three seats would reduce GOP seats to 216, tying Democrats if they flip all three. A single defection or bipartisan coalition could hand Speaker power to Democrats—a critical check on Trump’s agenda.

Broader Stakes: Democracy and the Planet

Critics warn that a Trump-Musk alliance (the latter via X/Twitter’s propaganda reach) seeks to erode democratic norms, exploit fossil fuels, and weaken global climate commitments. A Democratic House could:

• Block efforts to expand presidential power (e.g., the 2025 Presidential Transition Project).
• Halt rollbacks of climate regulations, such as methane emission limits.
• Investigate alleged authoritarian power grabs, including Trump’s rumored plans to invoke the Insurrection Act.

Key Context:

• Trump’s first term saw 71 environmental rules reversed.
• Musk’s X/Twitter has amplified election conspiracies, per Stanford Internet Observatory.

Can Democrats Defy the Odds?

While NY-21 is competitive, FL-06 and FL-01 remain steep climbs. Yet special elections favor motivated bases. Democratic groups like MoveOn and Climate Power are flooding the zones with ads linking GOP candidates to “eco-authoritarianism.” Meanwhile, GOP infighting in FL-01 over Merk’s extremism has left the door ajar.

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The Democratic Contenders: Profiles in Courage and Urgency

These three candidates represent the front lines of the fight to preserve democracy and planetary survival. Here’s who they are, what they stand for—and how you can help them win.

1. Emily Collins (NY-21): The Climate Champion

• Background: A former mayor of Plattsburgh, Collins spearheaded New York’s first municipal green energy grid, slashing carbon emissions by 40% in her city. Endorsed by the Sunrise Movement and League of Conservation Voters, she’s framed her campaign as a “last stand” against fossil fuel lobbyists influencing Trump’s agenda.
• Key Platform:
• Green Jobs Revolution: Proposes a federal grant program to retrofit upstate New York’s factories for solar panel production.
• Defend Democracy: Vows to codify voting rights protections and block Trump’s proposed “Patriot Election” laws, which critics call voter suppression.
• Why This Race Matters: Flipping NY-21 would signal that even Trump-friendly rural districts reject climate denial. Collins’ internal polls show her within 3 points of Barrett.
• How to Help:
• Donate: Collins for Congress (as of Feb. 2025, small-dollar donations have surged 300%).
• Volunteer: Phone-bank for upstate voters via Climate Power’s NY-21 Action Hub.
• Amplify: Share her viral speech linking GOP climate inaction to record Adirondack wildfires.

2. Jasmine Rivera (FL-06): The Veteran Fighting Authoritarianism

• Background: A Puerto Rican Navy veteran and nurse, Rivera’s campaign slogan—“Country Over Conspiracy”—directly targets MAGA election deniers. She gained national attention after denouncing Trump’s alleged plans to invoke the Insurrection Act during a CNN town hall.
• Key Platform:
• Protect Veterans: Pushing to expand VA healthcare and block GOP cuts to veteran climate disaster relief.
• Stop the Coup: Pledges to co-sponsor legislation barring presidents from deploying troops against protesters.
• Why This Race Matters: Rivera’s military credentials resonate in this veteran-heavy district. A recent Siena College poll shows her trailing Lopez by just 5 points, a seismic shift in a longtime GOP stronghold.
• How to Help:
• Donate: Rivera for Florida (95% of donations are under $50).
• Volunteer: Mobilize Puerto Rican voters in Volusia County via Boricua Vota.
• Share: Her viral TikTok rebutting Musk’s “electric cars for patriots” rhetoric has 12M views (@JasmineForFL06).

3. Marcus Green (FL-01): The Civil Rights Defender

• Background: A Pensacola civil rights attorney, Green successfully sued Florida over voter purges in 2023. His campaign focuses on Gen Z voters, partnering with Vote Save America to register students at historically Black colleges.
• Key Platform:
• Save the Vote: Promises to dismantle Florida’s “anti-woke” election laws, which disproportionately disenfranchise Black voters.
• Climate Justice: Calls for FEMA to designate the Panhandle a “climate emergency zone” after Hurricane Idalia’s devastation.
• Why This Race Matters: While FL-01 is heavily red, Gaetz’s scandal depressed GOP turnout. Green’s team reports over 18,000 new voter registrations since January.
• How to Help:
• Donate: Green Wave PAC (funds youth voter buses).
• Volunteer: Text-bank students at University of West Florida via Rock the Vote.
• Amplify: His landmark speech at the site of a destroyed Black church trended on X.

The Time to Act Is Now

These candidates aren’t just running for Congress—they’re racing against a ticking clock. Trump’s allies aim to cement power by March 2025, with plans to fast-track drilling permits in the Arctic and silence climate science agencies. Democrats need all three seats to halt this agenda.

Every dollar, door knock, and tweet matters:

• Donate to split contributions between all three campaigns via Swing Left.
• Join nationwide phone banks organized by Indivisible.
• Pressure corporate media to cover these races using #DemocracyOrDeath on social platforms.

As Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warned in a recent fundraiser: “If we lose here, we lose everywhere.”

Sources for candidate data: Campaign websites, Federal Election Commission filings, and partner organizations linked above.

Conclusion

These races—once dismissed as foregone conclusions—now symbolize a existential showdown. A Democratic House could slow Trump’s agenda, preserve climate safeguards, and block authoritarian overreach. But in districts Trump won by 15+ points, victory requires unprecedented turnout and GOP missteps. As Cook Political’s latest analysis notes: “Miracles happen. But not often.”

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