Another successful lift-off and milestone achieved for Elon Musk’s space company
SpaceX welcomed back its Falcon 9 as the company caught its rocket head (payload fairings) using a large net in the middle of the Atlantic ocean. This is the third time in less than thirty days that SpaceX has successfully retrieved its rocket head marking a significant milestone for the company. With an additional launch currently scheduled for August 27, 2020.
The payload fairing – the rocket’s nose splits into two as it comes back from orbit, both of which are equipped with a parachute and autopilot guidance software for the recovery. The two boats to catch each of the two fairings, Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief patiently waited for the rocket to come back to Earth. As you can see from the video, the company makes retrieving the fairing look extremely relaxing and seamless (cue elevator music).
The Falcon 9, which is currently SpaceX’s largest rocket was launched on August 18, 2020 for the 40th time and this also marks a record-breaking 6 times that the Falcon has used the same booster. Eco-friendly and climate conscious, Musk has been praised for his ingenuity to recover and be able to build reusable rockets, which also significantly cuts expenses on the previously extreme high cost of space launches.
During the August 18, 2020 launch that took place at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, the latest batch of 58 satellites were sent to orbit for SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network. This marks the 11th batch of Starlink satellites sent to orbit. To-date, SpaceX has launched almost 600 satellites for its Starlink initiative.
Starlink is planning to deliver high speed broadband internet in the Northern United States and Canada As soon as September, in a limited test phase, then with full access during 2020. They then will expand for full global coverage by 2021.
The Naked Display of Abandon in Shanghai was a Signal to The Next Generation
It’s not because Tesla’s stock is at a high. It’s not because SpaceX is passing milestone after milestone. Elon Musk is on a mission, and it’s the same one we all need to be on, starting now: to save the world.
There’s a kind of liberation in facing death, like the movie protagonist racing in a stolen car, chased by the killer bad guy, not worried about the tires or how much fuel is being used: it’s adrenaline pumping survival mode, right here, right now.
And yet, with the metaphorical woman of his dreams (who is actually us and the planet) in the passenger seat, the protagonist, and all of us vicariously, feels more alive, in what could be his final moments, than in all his life to this point.
That’s why he’s dancing.
Many say 2019 was the year that the Climate Crisis, formerly known as global warming, could no longer be doubted by any sane or unbiased person. A few dozen catastrophic, clearly anomalous weather events will do that.
And now, as the new decade dawns, Australia burns and #WWIII trends on Twitter, we are all starting to feel like we are in that stolen car.
Elon Musk is a little different from the rest of us. Not because of his money or success or brains or celebrity. Because he has been on this mission for practically his entire life.
And now we need to join him.
Tesla is and always has been on a mission. Not to “dominate” the EV sector of the auto industry, as is so often written. Not to achieve success as measured by profit or cash flow positions. It’s on an energy mission . See it’s stated for all to see on its twitter account:
So many constantly trumpet the refrain that solving the climate crisis is all about austerity and sacrifice, and certainly there will be plenty of that.
And the deniers say that changing the system is not worth it if there is even a minuscule chance that we are not doomed. Really? How much Exxon stock do you own ? But what it will really take is a revolution in thought and the contagious motivation of an entire generation. And humans are not prophylactically inclined !
It’s Elon Musk and Tesla’s genius, shared with Apple that they understand that you can change the world if people are moved by aspirational, beautiful, sexy dreams of a better life. Not some granola style golf cart of functionality.
An iPhone is the best, most powerful hand held computing device ever imagined and, oh yes, it’s a sexy, sleek fashion statement that you can love with all your heart as well. Ditto on the last part for every Tesla also, from the Model 3 to the Cybertruck.
That mission is bigger than being a car maker, or battery manufacturer or even tech design firm. It’s a mission to replace the current, suicidal, Fossil Fuel based infrastructure with a sustainable one. Worldwide. Right now. Before it’s too late to matter.
Companies that have a higher mission than just “profit for shareholders” have not just a higher moral ground from which to operate but a true motivation that literally pulses like a beating heart throughout the enterprise. Often overlooked is the mission that Steve Jobs imbued into the soul of Apple and the higher mission of providing the best tools that technology is capable of.
Looking forward, for perhaps the first time in human history, the challenges are sharply defined, as are the methods and players in the game. Massive evil forces, created by humans must be countered by small and also equally massive forces just as human, oriented toward a better world and more, the best of all possible worlds.
In truth, within the total devotion and capitulation to a higher mission lies freedom, inner peace and, ultimately success and prosperity, potentially for us all.
Not a hard choice when compared to pain, suffering and, ultimately the extinction of all life on this planet.
In short, it’s Utopia or Oblivion, folks.
So, thank you Elon Musk, for showing us the steps to the dance, and for having the bravery to show us with those awkward, unselfconscious moves that, you too, are learning as you go.
Now we all just need to apply ourselves, like Greta Thunberg inviting Meatloaf to examine scientific evidence, to the task of finding the joy in changing everything that’s wrong with our world, starting with the energy infrastructure, and replacing it with a better, cleaner, less tainted one.
— 🌎 Positive Energy Action (@PosEnergyAction) January 7, 2020
There is a paradox here, though. See it? If we are running for our lives from the most fearsome danger we’ve ever faced, and we are not concerned about money, power or the trappings of fame, then why does it sometimes seem like a better life is so close we can almost reach out and touch it?
Tesla Roadster – Photo / Tesla
Because that’s the secret. If we did all dance like Elon, devote ourselves to a higher cause, and put aside our worldly squabbles over money, power and fame, maybe, just maybe, we will survive and prosper, beyond all our imaginings. And that stolen car? It’s a Tesla Roadster hitting on maximum torque in Ludicrous mode.
And with every discovery shared, solution compounded and mission surpassed, we can escape together and let go of the past’s villainous errors. With luck to find a future worth all our hopes and dreams.
Tesla continues to hit new sales and tech milestones (not to mention the stock price)…
Throughout 2018 and 2019, Tesla delivered 612,120 vehicles. This is an impressive number, and a quota that surely upped the ante for Elon Musk‘s famed tech-car company. However, that striking figure has already been dwarfed by the number of pre-orders currently in place for Tesla’s upcoming Cybertruck.
According to Finbold, Tesla has already received 650,000 pre-orders for the Cybertruck. The bulk of these pre-orders (approximately 535,000 of them) took place before February of 2020. Naturally, fewer people placed orders as the coronavirus spread across the globe. Still, over 100,000 additional orders despite everything going on in the world is an enduring sign of the vehicle’s popularity.
Pre-ordering a concept with a precious few in circulation
Tesla first revealed the Cybertruck on November 21st in Los Angeles. It’s ultramodern aesthetic, with sharp lines, futuristic angles, and tankish wheels met polarizing reactions. Many even took to lampooning the vehicle on social media via memes. However, this generated increased publicity for the Cybertruck all the same, and the pre-orders eventually poured in.
Of course, not all pre-orders for the truck are guaranteed sales. Nevertheless, the 650,000 figure means that that many people are interested in the vehicle enough to reserve one, and each reservation requires a $100 deposit. Already, Tesla is earning money on the truck and if the copious pre-orders do turn into deliveries, the company will continue its trajectory of increased sales for every year since 2014.
Elon Musk and Tesla have recently earned some negative press while delivering their latest Model-Y cars, which are similarly in very high demand. Perhaps connected to the unanticipatedly large number of orders, Model-Ys have been notorious for quality control problems. Pre-ordered cars often come with incorrect paint, faulty interiors, asymmetrical features, and other mistakes.
Luckily, the company is already correcting its mistakes, and the issues have not hindered Tesla fans from remaining enthusiastic about the Cybertruck. Musk wants to start shipping them early next year, introducing the first EV truck onto the road and optimistically shifting the car market for the planet’s benefit.
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High-Occupancy Autonomous Electric Vehicle (AEV) proposal Courtesy The Boring Company.
On June 3rd, 2020, the San Bernardino Country transportation (SBCTA) agency voted to move forward with a proposal for a high speed tunnel from Elon Musk’s Boring Company. The tunnel would link Rancho Cucamonga with the Ontario International Airport. If finalized, this would mark the third major accomplishment from the company.
The Boring Company is currently in progress working on the tunnel to connect the Las Vegas Convention Center which has been slated to be operational by CES in January of 2021. The company also won the contract to build an express loop for Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport which is pending.
The SBCTA Authority Board of Directors support and view the tunnel as a cheaper and faster alternative to the other above-ground rail projects. With the unanimous vote for the proposal, staff will begin to pursue the project deeper and postpone the $3 million study that was to be conducted for airport-rail connections.
Curt Hagman, San Bernardino County Supervisor introduced introduced the idea after touring and taking a ride in the test tunnel at The Boring Co. facility in Hawthorne, California.
“It get us thinking in a new way. This is something that can be done relatively quickly and inexpensively.”
Curt Hagman / San Bernardino County Supervisor
The proposal involves building a 2.8 mile tunnel that would take passengers in electric cars to and from the airport with speeds up to 127 miles per hour ranging from 90 seconds to 2 minutes to reach its destination. The tunnel would be approximately 14 feet in diameter and 35 feet below ground. The original plan called for customized Tesla cars, however according to Hagman, the company is set to develop electric vans in order to seat more people, up to 12 passengers and their luggage, which would increase the daily capacity of up to 1,200 people per day.
SBCTA estimates the final cost of the project could range near $60 million with costs of upwards of $75 million which is significantly less expensive than the alternative light rail systems that were quoted in the range of $1-1.5 billion.
The Ontario Airport Loop is expected to be complete in approximately 4 years which is again far faster than the 10 years quoted for the construction of light railing systems. The SBCTA Director of Transit and Rail, Carrie Schindler explained in a statement given to local news, “It is much more cost-effective. I do anticipate the need for outside funding but at a reduced level as compared to building surface projects.”
Have you seen the monologue from Bill Maher on Amazon and Bezos? If not you better take a look. Can’t say if Bill is a barometer of the pulse of the public at large, but this time he seems to be spot-on. There could be a sea-change coming, even as we all reflect on the massive changes wrought this year, not only by the pandemic itself, but by the collateral damage and collateral advantage, in some cases, that came with it like a tsunami after an earthquake.
Perhaps change can be good. Tesla and Elon Musk are trying, at least, and the upcoming announcements regarding battery tech breakthroughs are like a ray of sustainable sunshine in a world of clouds and rain. Quibi appears to be struggling out of the gate (surprising no one!) but with billions in their war chest it’s likely too soon to count them out entirely. After you check out the Bill Maher video below, you might want a little deeper background on the landscape that led to Amazon’s insane dominance, so check out the extended, anonymously sourced reporting by our News Staff.
Isn’t it funny that the so called bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 which resulted in a nearly 75% drop in the tech heavy NASDAQ index by March, 2000. Ultimately, among survivors and upstarts, the winner-takes-all saga led to no less than three trillion dollar companies. Click to see complete story.
Tesla has proven already that a well designed and engineered EV has many superior qualities compared to an equivalent ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle. Teslas have shown that they can last up to one million miles with far less maintenance. Click to see complete story.
A recent “study” has been cited by a gaggle of digital media outlets. Featuring headlines such as “Jeff Bezos Could Be the World’s First Trillionaire, and the Overwhelming Response Is ‘Thanks I Hate It’ (Vice.com) and“Jeff Bezos could become world’s first trillionaire, and many people aren’t happy about it” (USA Today) and trending on twitter via the hashtag #bezostrillionaire and #RIPCapitalism. Click here to see complete story.
Jeffrey Katzenberg and Meg Whitman launched Quibi on April 6th. The latest project from the two well-experienced entertainment moguls, Quibi is a streaming service designed for the smallest of screens— namely, smartphones and other mobile devices. The subscription based platform’s initiative is to provide short bursts of entertainment for people on the go, keeping content between seven and ten minutes long apiece. Click to see complete story.
With half the world seemingly at the beach, and most of us focused on the right way to survive coming out of lock-down, you may have missed the incredibly active news coming out of the tech space. Not just space itself, but a variety of interesting looks toward the future, both in law and anti-trust issues and, yes, space itself both from the fantasy as well as reality perspective.
With the coronavirus pandemic implications for the economy and business at the forefront of looming threats, at least in terms of non-medical issues, the big tech giants; Amazon, Google and Facebook are all getting warnings that the government are a-coming with serious questions as to the behavior of the former, if not outright legal actions. And the people at large, in particular small business owners may not be far behind.
A Bully with a “Nice” Promise is Still just a Bully:
Photo Collage / Lynxotic / Adobe Stock
Funny thing about promises made by politicians and owners of public companies. Although truth will eventually come out due to public access to accounting, these are often so far in the future that virtually anything can be promised today with no need for a specific plan or transparent numbers to back them up. Click to see complete story.
From “Star Trek” to “Star Wars,” “Interstellar” to “2001,” outer space has been the primary setting for a wide range of science fiction and action movies over the years. Still, never has a film actually been shot in the infinite frontier. Sure we have footage from the stars (even from the moon and Mars), but no feature film has been bold enough to actually construct a full-length narrative with principal photography occurring in space. Click to see complete story.
On Friday, May 15th, Facebook announced that it will be buying Giphy— the world’s most popular GIF site on the internet, social media, and messaging services. Giphy is already an integrated part of iMessage, Tinder, Slack, and Twitter, and Facebook now owns it for a reported $400 million. Click to see complete story.
It is safe to say that Google is a hegemonic force in the digital world. The site practically has a monopoly on internet searches and it holds nearly a third of the money tied up in online advertising. Because of the United States’ lax laws regarding cyber security, Google’s dominance has largely gone unchecked over the years. That is, until now. Click to see complete story.
In a recent update to the SpaceX web site, Elon Musk and crew added some detail and updates to the plans for passenger and satellite cargo travel using its developing rocket tech. Naturally both SpaceX Starlink Satellite Launches and work for hire missions for NASA and others have been happening on a regular basis.
All of these and other projects also all serve to push the development of the systems for longer term projects, goals and plans.
https://www.spacex.com/media/mission_reusability.mp4Video showing REUSABILITY – While most rockets are designed to burn up on reentry, SpaceX rockets can not only withstand reentry but can also successfully land back on Earth and refly again.
“You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great – and that’s what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It’s about believing in the future and thinking that the future will be better than the past. And I can’t think of anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars.”
— ELON MUSK, SPACEX
One that has a specific stated timeline is the Private Lunar Mission. First announced in the fall of 2018, Japanese fashion billionaire and art collector Yusaku Maezawa has purchased the fist ticket to orbit the moon on a SpaceX flight. The undisclosed price of the ticket will help fund the ongoing project to perfect the Starship and it’s rocket booster side-kick Super Heavy (formerly known as BFR) which, together, represent a reusable transportation system that SpaceX hopes will, one day soon, take passengers into orbit and on interplanetary missions.
Diagram / SpaceX
Those missions, starting with the week-long moon mission for Maezawa, will eventually include the first manned mission to Mars, with an inaugural flight currently projected to happen by 2024. An initial cargo only flight is penciled in for 2022.
Elon and SpaceX are certainly aware of the challenges of these incredibly ambitious plans and accelerated timelines.
https://www.spacex.com/media/DragonTrunk_Animation_Render_Desktop.mp4video animation: The Dragon spacecraft is capable of carrying up to 7 passengers to and from Earth orbit, and beyond. It is the only spacecraft currently flying that is capable of returning significant amounts of cargo to Earth, and will soon become the first private spacecraft to take humans to the space station.
The website details the plan for the potentially treacherous landing sequence once the Starship actually reaches Mars. This includes an entry into the Mars atmosphere, never before breached by a human, at 7.5 kilometers per second. These video simulations show the ideal plan for the Starship to conquer this task.
Earth to Earth Transportation System
The team of Starship and Super Heavy are also part of a planned Earth to Earth transportation system for long distance travel around the globe. With the advantages of leaving the earth’s atmosphere (for a short time based on the incredible speed of the system) where there is little to no friction and no weather or turbulence.
As can be seen in the table below, the average intercontinental commercial jet flight, such as London to Hong Kong, that currently takes 12 in-flight hours, would be reduced to 35 minutes. Basically this would mean that any distance on earth could be reached in an hour or less.
ROUTE
DISTANCE
COMMERCIAL AIRLINE
STARSHIP
LOS ANGELES TO NEW YORK
3,983km
5 hours, 25 min
25 min
BANGKOK TO DUBAI
4,909km
6 hours, 25 min
27 min
TOKYO TO SINGAPORE
5,350km
7 hours, 10 min
28 min
LONDON TO NEW YORK
5,555km
7 hours, 55 min
29 min
NEW YORK TO PARIS
5,849km
7 hours, 20 min
30 min
SYDNEY TO SINGAPORE
6,288km
8 hours, 20 min
31 min
LOS ANGELES TO LONDON
8,781km
10 hours, 30 min
32 min
LONDON TO HONG KONG
9,648km
11 hours, 50 min
34 min
“Rocket-lag” vs. Jet-lag, that’s a topic for a whole other article.
With all these plans, in addition to the missions to and from the space station and trips to host various payloads, it begs the question, what was NASA doing during the years from 1972, when the last moon mission was completed, until SpaceX was first contracted to assist.
And with all the private space exploration companies vying for position and invested in by both public and private funding, will this push be sustained throughout the 2020s?
With the Global Climate Crisis looming and various governments and private behemoths showing little regard for cooperation or or philanthropic behavior, the outcome and timeline of off-earth projects seem almost certain to be impacted by terrestrial obstacles, virtually every step of the way.
”Holy Grail” believed to be impossible before at least 2025 might now be on the way thanks to battery design improvements
Tesla has proven already that a well designed and engineered EV has many superior qualities compared to an equivalent ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle. Teslas have shown that they can last up to one million miles with far less maintenance.
While doing that they also have other features; silence, speed and acceleration, an on board computer with eventual over-the-air upgrades to full self-driving capabilities. Although the cars themselves, with no internal combustion engine parts to replace and no oil change every five thousand miles, are already able to run for a million miles, the battery, which is currently very expensive to replace, can not, as yet, last that long. The current lifespan for a Tesla Model 3 battery is 300,000 to 500,000 miles.
Model 3 drive unit & body is designed like a commercial truck for a million mile life. Current battery modules should last 300k to 500k miles (1500 cycles). Replacing modules (not pack) will only cost $5k to $7k.
While the initial cost for EV batteries has gone down a lot – from $1100 per kilowatt hour in 2010 to $156 per kWh in 2019 which is 87% less. In spite of this amazing drop – the elusive cost parity with ICE vehicles has been said to only be achievable when batteries reach $100 per kWh, the so-called Holy Grail of EVs.
Based on information gathered by Reuters from “people familiar with the matter” that is all about to be a quest of the past with the reality of an $80 per kWh “million mile battery” already being developed.
We’re going to have to push out the date or attendance will be very low. Maybe do in two parts: webcast next month & in-person event a few months later?
Battery will be the product of a 3-way Joint Venture with contributors from Tesla, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (China) and Jeff Dahn based at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia
The new low-cost long life battery will first be used for the Model 3 version manufactured for the Chinese market. The plan, according to sources that spoke anonymously to Reuters, is for an initial roll-out in China and later for the low cost Model 3 to be introduced into other markets, such as North America, for example.
The “million mile” moniker is an illustration of the long lasting life span of the battery design. Less obvious, however, are the potentially ground breaking application as a resource that can be used via Tesla Energy in energy storage products. With highly reliable battery packs lasting potentially up to three decades it will be possible for small for homeowners to have a backup source during outages, or a hybrid solution with solar panels combining with power from the grid as needed.
Battery stored solar generated energy can reduce costs or even be an income source when excess is sold back to public utilities. And, of course a complete off grid, solar and wind powered, fully sustainable system could be employed in large and small settings. A massive version of such a system is already in place at the Nevada gigafactory itself.
Power grid sized installations, such as a recent Hornsdale Power Reserve installation in Australia point toward the industrial solutions of the breakthrough technology.
These twin benefits of significant cost reduction and longer life, along with possible “re-purposing” for use in backs-up for the electric power grid are a combination that points toward a transformation of Tesla’s business model into that of a sustainable power company first and car company second.
Such a leap forward would put the company into the position of an energy provider such as PGE, with eventual added benefits to the planet once sustainable sources are ramped up.
As if all of this is not enough, the upcoming Starlink internet service, power via satellites being launched by Elon Musk’s “other” venture SpaceX, could provide internet connectivity at such an off-grid compound. Once these options are available, a highly functioning sustainable powered, globally connected living compound could be built virtually anywhere in the world.
The many features of such an independent energy and satellite communications option could create a truly decentralized dwelling system, further reducing survival and luxury costs.
Challenges remain yet the upcoming announcement nevertheless changes the outlook considerably
This highly ambitious project and these blockbuster potentials require many desperate elements to come together for this dream to be realized. One is the new, groundbreaking battery design which is the bombshell news being hinted at by Reuter’s unnamed sources.
Based on low-cobalt and cobalt-free battery chemistries, and the use of chemical additives, materials and coatings, the new design is projected to enable batteries to store more energy for longer periods, sources said. Additionally, nano-engineered materials are said to be a contributing factor in creating more bruise resistant and less damage prone due to rapid charging stresses. These improvements are said to make the “million mile” claim for the replacement cycle a reality.
Ramping up battery production methods will be necessary, both for reducing the costs via economies of scale and to keep up with the virtually unlimited demand for a Tesla EV with a million mile lifespan before the cost of battery replacement at a price point on par with or even below current ICE vehicles.
According to “hints” leaked by Musk in April, this will be achieved through new truly massive, highly automated “terafactories”. Based on the “gigafactory” concept which already has three in operation, in Nevada, New York State and Shanghai, China, with a fourth in Berlin, Germany, being built, the new battery manufacturing locations are planned to be thirty times larger than the current gigafactory in Nevada, which, at completion, was the largest factory ever built by square footage and second by volume.
Weightlessness becomes the sound stage setting for innovation or absurdity
From “Star Trek” to “Star Wars,” “Interstellar” to “2001,” outer space has been the primary setting for a wide range of science fiction and action movies over the years. Still, never has a film actually been shot in the infinite frontier. Sure we have footage from the stars (even from the moon and Mars), but no feature film has been bold enough to actually construct a full-length narrative with principal photography occurring in space.
All that is about to change, as Deadline Hollywood recently reported that actor Tom Cruise has been in conversation with tech wizard Elon Musk‘s SpaceX to shoot a movie entirely in space… the first feature to ever have its production take place outside planet Earth.
As of right now, details are quite spotty. All we know for sure is that Cruise is on board and so is Musk. The film will not be attached to any pre-existing Tom Cruise franchise and no studio has signed on to the project yet. Also, in typical Cruise fashion, the movie will likely fall into the action genre.
Because COVID-19 has more or less put the film industry on pause indefinitely, significant progress on the project will probably not begin until business is back to normal. Obviously, this movie will require an unprecedented amount of planning. Cruise will need to endure astronaut-like training to face (let alone act in) a zero gravity environment. The same goes for all of the supporting cast and crew members, none of whom have been announced yet.
The project will probably be insurmountably expensive, but with Musk, Cruise, and SpaceX (and by extension NASA) at the film’s back, they will certainly be able to raise the funds and attract major studio interest. A budget has not been estimated yet, but the film could easily end up being the most expensive production of all time. It depends on how many actors, crew members, and sets they need to prepare and transport to beyond the exosphere.
Fringe benefit or impossible to insure, an action stunt that creates headlines, if not much else
Even in his sixties, the eternally youthful Tom Cruise is a perfect pick to lead the first film shot in space. The actor still does his own extreme stunts and the past few “Mission: Impossible” movies saw him leaping from helicopters, hanging off the side of a moving airplane, and scaling the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. If any Hollywood persona has what it takes to perform in space, it is Cruise.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk—who recently had his first child, named X Æ A-12, with partner Grimes—is one of the greatest visionaries alive today. His SpaceX company is behind the electric-powered line of Tesla cars and it is currently planning a flight to the international space station with its innovative Crew Dragon capsule. Having Musk lend his expertise to the film industry will be a real treat.
Cruise is currently awaiting the release of his most recent film, “Top Gun: Maverick,” which has been pushed back from June to December due to the pandemic. The aviator-based action movie is a sequel to its 1986 predecessor, and Cruise stars alongside Jennifer Connelly, Val Kilmer, Jon Hamm, and others. Although Cruise has done copious action adventure films throughout his career, he’s somehow never done one set in space. Given his aptitude for practical stunts, it only makes sense that his first one is filmed there for real.
As virtually everyone is aware by now the second biggest story of the week (third?) has been the literal deluge of shopping crowds converging on grocery and big-box stores buying large quantities of water, paper products, disinfectants and, more recently, food staples and whatever else is not nailed down.
Interviews with company presidents that manufacture paper products have shown that this is truly panic buying as the apparent shortages are based not on a lack of supply or the ability to produce more, but on the logistical difficulty in getting the shelves stocked fast enough.
“There is not some big underground warehouse like in ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark,’ where there is all this toilet paper sitting around in case it is needed”
Dan Clarahan, president of United Converting,quoted in the NY Times
Instead people are literally filling their closets with excess paper, more than they can use in a year, all due to psychological reactions to the uncertainty of the overall situation. We as humans are notoriously bad at calculating needs and usage of supplies and making time based buying decisions.
Paper aisle of a discount store today in Los Angeles. Photo / Lynxotic
Case in point: the box of tin-foil above, which is admittedly a 500 ft roll meant for restaurant use (bought at Costco) is, for all intents and purposes, an antique. I bought it for around $15 in 2012. It’s not gone yet.
I am not, as you can see, an industrial grade user of tin-foil. However, this box has been used several times a week for various household refrigerator storage tasks for 8 Years!
Without getting into the fine mathematics of how long, per person, a roll of toilet paper should last (including all the minutia such as the length of the roll and how many “layers of comfort” are included) grabbing shopping carts full is likely not a necessity, even if practicing social distancing for a month or two.
“Empty” shelves at Los Angeles discount store – Photo / Lynxotic
And then what about food? This photo is of “shockingly empty” shelves in the meat section of a discount store in Los Angeles, today. What’s the first thing you see? What I see is just how many great things to eat are readily available, still, on these empty shelves.
So, all in all, I guess its called “panic” for a reason. Because it’s not about “reason” but rather that lack thereof. Just as with paper products food supplies are not in any huge danger of total collapse. You just might have to choose a different entrée for a time or two. Shelves are being restocked as fast as the stores can muster, but the speed, and in particular the amount per person, of the buying is making it impossible to physically get the goods into place soon enough.
Teleconferencing, Cloud apps, Work-from-home and the carbon conundrum
And, while on the subject of what’s not-as-bad as it seems, interestingly many common behaviors that were considered necessary, up until the coronavirus became a danger when combined with those practices, such as the 4oz limit on liquids taken on to an aircraft are being phased out. When people were allowed, starting recently, to take 12oz bottles of hand sanitizer onto flights, literally nothing bad happened.
And what about working from home, as has been almost universally adopted by major tech companies such as Amazon, Twitter, Apple, etc. Many are saying this could, and should, be a permanent change and that the don’t think that the practice of commuting to work will ever be the norm again.
Wait… what? So, along with having oil shoved down our throats (or at lest into our gas tanks) by the fossil fuel industry for half a century longer than technologically necessary, we have been commuting and destroying the planet for no reason at all?
Surprisingly positive and even optimistic signs are already appearing like this everywhere – green shoots of the new season of change. Ands change, radical change, is the common denominator.
Electric cars were driving around London as early as 1884, but it took Elon Musk and Tesla to finally take the idea of owning one to the mainstream. A car with an internal combustion engine created in 1934 got over 30 MPG, could reach speeds upwards of 90 mph and could seat 11. It’s no accident that these technologies were stifled for all these years. Ask Putin and MBS.
Living in a Box might help us to think Outside the Box
So, without putting too fine a point on it, a lot of good things are already potentially coming out of the massive changes underfoot – not just our fight to escape the worst of the coronaviruses potential, but the economic fallout, which is only partially related, and the coming shift in thinking about, well, everything.
The reality is, from Climate Change and carbon overload to corruption in government and big business, the biggest changes needed are possible if the old ways just disappear, or are swept away, in order for existing technological potential to be realized. And what better time for that to happen than now?
Act as if ye have faith and faith shall be given to you
We are all so often lost. Feeling lost and wondering what to do. We run to the stores and try to race against one another for the chance to hoard things we don’t really need. But, perhaps, just as toilet paper won’t protect you from the novel coronavirus, even bigger issues such as climate change can only begin to be solved once we find a way to live in a totally different way.
”Well…You know, so much of the time we’re just lost. We say, “Please, God, tell us what is right. Tell us what is true.”
I mean there is no justice. The rich win; the poor are powerless. We become tired of hearing people lie. And after a time we become dead, a little dead.
“The Verdict”
What way? That is unknown. Big changes are coming, like it or not. But changes don’t always mean worsening circumstances. We might have the solutions right under our noses. That tin-foil might last longer than we expected. Accepting, even embracing change might reveal a chance for better things to come. Learning not to burn fossilized plant matter to go to an office to work on a computer that you also have at home. Believing in our ability as humans to find solutions, and for those solutions to be brought into the light of day, without being obstructed or suppressed for greedy, stupid reasons.
…But today you are the law. You are the law, not some book, not the lawyers, not a marble statue, or the trappings of the court. See, those are just symbols of our desire to be just. They are, in fact, a prayer, I mean a fervent and a frightened prayer.
The next big challenge, which we as a planet are clearly not yet prepared to face, is climate change and the environmental damage wrought by “man”. What if interconnected human communications, enhanced by software and the internet, can play a roll in changing the way we live – and by doing that changing the equation that has been a negative one for over a century? That could be a building block toward not just survival but to a new way to prevail and prosper.
In my religion, they say, “Act as if you had faith; faith will be given to you.”
If we are to have faith in justice we need only to believe in ourselves and act with justice. See, I believe there is justice in our hearts.”
Words by David Mamet – Performed by Paul Newman in Sidney Lumet’s, ‘The Verdict
The most talked about car in 2019 has been Tesla’s Model 3, an electric vehicle from Tesla that is sleek, modern looking, and highly desirable. In Tesla’s latest quarter alone, the company has sold nearly 80,000 Model 3s, sustaining it as the most popular EV on the market. This is not Tesla’s only achievement for the year. The company’s Cybertruck and Semi have received copious attention; its Model X and Model S continue to be popular; and consumers are eagerly awaiting 2020’s releases of the Model Y and Roadster.
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Based on its title, David Enrich’s new book “Dark Towers” might sound like an appendix to the nine part horror-fantasy series that Stephen King wrote between 1982 and 2012. In reality, though, Enrich’s book is a true story of financial corruption, with the full title “Dark Towers: Deutsche Bank, Donald Trump and an Epic Trail of Destruction.”
Nevertheless, the tale is just as riveting as any novel, and is perhaps even darker than any work of fiction.
Ford announced that the company will be adding an all-electric model of its best selling cargo van the Transit. The electric cargovan is scheduled to be released in the U.S. and Canada by 2022. Ford is already in the works for its European launch of the electric Transit for 2021.
Currently, Ford does not have any fully electric vehicles on the market. With the Transit – that now makes at least 3 electric vehicles in Ford’s lineup, including the Mustang Mach-E crossover unveiled last November and the electric pickup truck F-150.
Sales for Ford’s US trucks and vans have risen 33% since 2015 with the expectation for that number to grow as e-commerce continues to increase.
With the insurgence of EV popularity amongst consumers, there is a clear tipping point for many big name auto makers taking steps to transition towards more clean energy and sustainable transportation options. Ford is following suit, as the company has recently invested $11.5 billion towards electrification and going digital.
“As leaders in this space, we are accelerating our plans to create solutions that help businesses run better, starting with our all-electric Transit and F-150. This Ford Transit isn’t just about creating an electric drivetrain, it’s about designing and developing a digital product that propels fleets forward. “
– jim farley / chief Operating Officer for Ford Motor Company
Global Director, Ted Cannis made the announcement of the electric Transit during a work truck show on March 3rd, 2020.
The Electric Transit will be Optimized for Maximum fleet performance
Teaser Image of the All-Electric Transit Courtesy of Ford
Consumers will have the options for varying configurations including: cargo van, cutaway, chassis cab and three different roof and body lengths.
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The all-electric Transit will offer cutting edge smart technology including high-speed data, equipped with a FordPass modem with 4G Wi-Fi hotspot, cloud-base services and tools like GPS tracking, geofencing and diagnostics, all to best optimize fleet performance.
Driver-assist technology will include: Pre-Collision Assist, Automatic Emergency Braking, Pedestrian Detection, Forward Collision Warning, Post-Collision Braking, Lane-Keeping System and auto high-beam headlamps.
There is no additional information on pricing, images or other details on the Transit have been made available yet but will surely be provided closer to release date.
Originally set for production in late fall of 2020, during a call regarding Tesla’s recent third quarter (Q3) report, it was revealed to investors that they now plan to start Model Y production much earlier, and deliveries could be in full swing by Summer 2020. Elon Musk commented on the new schedule, “There may be some room for improvement there, but we’re confident about summer 2020”.
According to recent news, the arrival date for Model Y is rapidly approaching. However, the specs and relevant prices for the Standard Range, Long Range, and Performance versions should remain unchanged. Prices will range from the Rear-Wheel Drive Long Range version for $48,690 and Performance Range at $56,690. Those prices include include potential incentives and gas savings of $4,300.
The reason for this change in schedule as reported from the Q3 presentation comes from the “learnings and efficiencies gained from our Gigafactory in Shanghai, China” while producing Model 3.
Model Y is built on the same third-generation platform as Model 3 and shares many of the same components, which will most likely aid in the overall production process and keep the accelerated date for deliveries. Tesla has planned to extend their production operations and have already begun installing equipment for Model Y in their Fremont, California factory as well as the Gigafactories in Nevada, Shanghai and eventually in Europe.
The Model 3 is the by far the most popular EV sedan in the market. Bloomberg reported over 500k car registrations for the model, while other competition comes nowhere near Tesla in EV sales.
Tesla’s other models are all mainly based on sedan body styles (aside from Model X) and the shift to a different body style will be a pivotal move for the company as compliments the current buying trends for larger cars. “It’s the body style of choice,” said Michelle Krebs, senior analyst with Cox Automotive.
Model X is SUV-sized but more luxury priced, whereas the Model Y will be Tesla’s first midsize crossover, which allows consumers a more affordable alternative. Musk tweeted prior to the March 2019 review that Model Y is approximately 10% larger than Model 3 and will have normal doors rather than the falcon wings found on the Model X. Another unique feature with be the all-glass roof, giving drivers an unobstructed view of the sky. The Model Y can seat up to 7 passengers with an optional third row, with more seating and storage versatility; the second row seats can be easily folded for increased storage needs. Additionally, the Model Y’s lift gate will have a low trunk, making it easy to load and unload.
Model Y, being an SUV, is about 10% bigger than Model 3, so will cost about 10% more & have slightly less range for same battery
The more affordable Standard Range version is not yet on the site, but it’s expected to be priced at $39,000. The Standard Range version has a later production date and is anticipated for early 2021. Ahead of its official release, Model Y is available for order in North America, China and parts of Europe for a deposit of $2,500.
All new Tesla cars have standard advanced hardware capabilities with software updates to continuously improve a driver’s experience over time. The Model Y will have Autopilot, Smart Summon, and Full Self-Driving Capability. Autopilot features that have been designed to enable the vehicle to help with navigation, and as well as steer, accelerate and break within its lane automatically, which does require the driver to pay attention through supervision.
There are eight cameras that allow 360 visibility, twelve sensors to detect objects in the road and a forward facing radar to allow for optimal safety and aid in emergency braking, collision warning, and blind-spots. Smart Summon is another feature that will allow your car to come find you in a parking lot. Eventually, Full Self-Driving Capabilities will be fully introduced with software updates available in the future, with pending regulatory approval.
The specs for the official Model Y lineup are as follows:
Standard Range
Range: 230 miles
Top Speed: 120 mph
0-60 mph: 5.9s
Price: $39,000
Deliveries: Early 2021
Long Range – Rear-Wheel Drive
Range: 300 miles
Top Speed: 130 mph
0-60 mph: 5.5s
Price: $48,000
Deliveries: Summer 2020
Long Range – Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
Range: 280 miles
Top Speed: 135 mph
0-60 mph: 4.8s
Price: $52,000
Deliveries: Summer 2020
Performance – Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
Range: 280 miles
Top Speed: 150 mph
0-60 mph: 3.5s
Price: $61,000
Deliveries: Summer 2020
Tesla Model Y
Tesla EV-brand Upper Hand with Crossover Competition
Crossover cars, which function a lot like family-sized SUVs, have long been produced by gas-engine automakers, and these same companies have also attempted to sell electrical versions of these vehicles.
Some current EV crossovers are already in the marketplace (I- Pace from Jaguar, Niro EV from Kia, e-Tron from Audi, Leaf S Plus from Nissan, Bolt by Chevy, and Kona Electric from Hyundai). Ford with a “Mustang-inspired” EV crossover SUV. However, because they are primarily known as internal combustion engine (ICE) makers, their EV sales tank compared to their ICE vehicle sales.
Tesla can and most likely will take advantage of perfecting the missteps and limitations of their competitors. The standout between Tesla and other EV crossovers is that Tesla is still the only company solely focused on electric versus other gas-powered or ICE counterparts. Thus, Tesla has an advantage as they enter the crossover arena with Model Y because of their notoriety for producing all-electric vehicles.
Arguably, Tesla’s price range was one of the biggest obstacles in its way in regards to selling EVs to the general public. This predicted affordability touted by a brand name for prestige EV production is going to make going ‘all-electric,’ an environmentally friendly alternative to fossil fuel, all the more possible for everyone.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter February 21st to share and clarify a few details about the upcoming Cybertruck. One such change will be the dimensions to the body width, originally set for 84 inches shown during the unveiling in November 2019, will actually be closer to 82 inches. The adjusted dimensions of the truck will allow owners to more easily fit their pickup into most standard size garages.
He spoke how the EV Cybertruck’s active ride height and active damping systems are “game-changing”.
Current Cybertruck Dimensions- Width: 82″, Height: 75″, Length: 225-231″, and Wheelbase: 149.9″.
Also noted by Musk, all Cybertruck models will come standard with the innovative upper laser blade lights that illuminate the top of the windshield.
Btw, in some prior tweets I’d said production Cybertruck would be ~80” wide (vs ~84” body width at unveil). This is slightly too small. Will be closer to 82”, but come standard with upper laser blade lights.
When asked about a payload/towing calculator, the co-founder revealed that the EV pickup truck will indeed have features to indicate real-time changes in acceleration, braking, cornering, speed, range, elevation changes and towing and drag impact.
The payload and towing calculator will be a valuable feature for owners to understand and assist them in any necessary towing adjustments to achieve the optimal truck driving experience.
Yes, will also show real-time changes to max acceleration, braking, cornering, speed on gradient & range, latter factoring in route elevation changes & cargo or tow mass & drag impact
According to Cybertruck Owners Club, there is some indication that over 500,000 pre-orders have already been booked (an average of nearly 6,000 daily) – this is the result of calculations based on Tesla’s pre-order numbering system and with members sharing their reservation number. The EV pickup will be seen on the road in the next couple of years and with such high pre-orders its clear there is a high demand for more sustainable driving options in the truck / SUV market.
Production for the Tri and Dual Motor AWD Tesla Cybertruck are set to begin late 2021, with the more affordable Single Motor RWD model in late 2022.
With the production over a year away, there will surely be more updates and tweets regarding the final version of the futuristic looking Cybertruck.
SpaceX is currently working around the clock to prepare its Starship rocket for its first suborbital test flight and, based on the production progress shared on Twitter, it could be happening in the very near future. In the beginning of February, Musk invited via social media all eligible applicants to attend a “Starship Career Day”, and called for a massive ramp up of staffing for production shifts – having teams work day and night in order to work 24/7 on the project.
The career invitation targeted individuals in operations and engineering as well as supervisors and support personnel. Musk tweeted, “A super hardcore work ethic, talent for building things, common sense & trustworthiness are required, the rest we can train.”
Elon Musk shared a tweet from the SpaceX development facility in Boca Chica, Texas showing a video of production for the rocket nose cone. The glimpse of the nearly completed nose cone reveals that the next Starship prototype test flight is fast approaching and presumably set for the upcoming Starship vehicle, SN1 (serial number 1).
Another tweet, shows a video by Musk of the Starship high bay. According to NASA Spaceflight, the stacking for the Starship SN1 has already begun. The vehicle is to be assembled in smaller segments and then welded all together during the final assembly process. The hope is to have the entire vehicle stacked and moved by the end of the month to stay on track for a mid March launch.
High bay for stacking Starship engine bay, propellant tanks & fairing (fka nosecone) sections is almost done! pic.twitter.com/G9h0430ns2
Last year, the earlier prototype, “Starhopper” was seen near the Texas coast and rose nearly 150 meters (492 feet). The upcoming suborbital test flight called SN1 could reach heights of about 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) and may launch as early as mid March 2020, per FCC filings.
SpaceX teams are working hard to reach the end game for the Starship which is designed for Earth orbit, moon missions and eventually to go all the way to Mars.
The Naked Display of Abandon in Shanghai was a Signal to The Next Generation
It’s not because Tesla’s stock is at a high. It’s not because SpaceX is passing milestone after milestone. Elon Musk is on a mission, and it’s the same one we all need to be on, starting now: to save the world.
There’s a kind of liberation in facing death, like the movie protagonist racing in a stolen car, chased by the killer bad guy, not worried about the tires or how much fuel is being used: it’s adrenaline pumping survival mode, right here, right now.
And yet, with the metaphorical woman of his dreams (who is actually us and the planet) in the passenger seat, the protagonist, and all of us vicariously, feels more alive, in what could be his final moments, than in all his life to this point.
That’s why he’s dancing.
Many say 2019 was the year that the Climate Crisis, formerly known as global warming, could no longer be doubted by any sane or unbiased person. A few dozen catastrophic, clearly anomalous weather events will do that.
And now, as the new decade dawns, Australia burns and #WWIII trends on Twitter, we are all starting to feel like we are in that stolen car.
Elon Musk is a little different from the rest of us. Not because of his money or success or brains or celebrity. Because he has been on this mission for practically his entire life.
And now we need to join him.
Tesla is and always has been on a mission. Not to “dominate” the EV sector of the auto industry, as is so often written. Not to achieve success as measured by profit or cash flow positions. It’s on an energy mission . See it’s stated for all to see on its twitter account:
So many constantly trumpet the refrain that solving the climate crisis is all about austerity and sacrifice, and certainly there will be plenty of that.
And the deniers say that changing the system is not worth it if there is even a minuscule chance that we are not doomed. Really? How much Exxon stock do you own ? But what it will really take is a revolution in thought and the contagious motivation of an entire generation. And humans are not prophylactically inclined !
It’s Elon Musk and Tesla’s genius, shared with Apple that they understand that you can change the world if people are moved by aspirational, beautiful, sexy dreams of a better life. Not some granola style golf cart of functionality.
An iPhone is the best, most powerful hand held computing device ever imagined and, oh yes, it’s a sexy, sleek fashion statement that you can love with all your heart as well. Ditto on the last part for every Tesla also, from the Model 3 to the Cybertruck.
That mission is bigger than being a car maker, or battery manufacturer or even tech design firm. It’s a mission to replace the current, suicidal, Fossil Fuel based infrastructure with a sustainable one. Worldwide. Right now. Before it’s too late to matter.
Companies that have a higher mission than just “profit for shareholders” have not just a higher moral ground from which to operate but a true motivation that literally pulses like a beating heart throughout the enterprise. Often overlooked is the mission that Steve Jobs imbued into the soul of Apple and the higher mission of providing the best tools that technology is capable of.
Looking forward, for perhaps the first time in human history, the challenges are sharply defined, as are the methods and players in the game. Massive evil forces, created by humans must be countered by small and also equally massive forces just as human, oriented toward a better world and more, the best of all possible worlds.
In truth, within the total devotion and capitulation to a higher mission lies freedom, inner peace and, ultimately success and prosperity, potentially for us all.
Not a hard choice when compared to pain, suffering and, ultimately the extinction of all life on this planet.
In short, it’s Utopia or Oblivion, folks.
So, thank you Elon Musk, for showing us the steps to the dance, and for having the bravery to show us with those awkward, unselfconscious moves that, you too, are learning as you go.
Now we all just need to apply ourselves, like Greta Thunberg inviting Meatloaf to examine scientific evidence, to the task of finding the joy in changing everything that’s wrong with our world, starting with the energy infrastructure, and replacing it with a better, cleaner, less tainted one.
— 🌎 Positive Energy Action (@PosEnergyAction) January 7, 2020
There is a paradox here, though. See it? If we are running for our lives from the most fearsome danger we’ve ever faced, and we are not concerned about money, power or the trappings of fame, then why does it sometimes seem like a better life is so close we can almost reach out and touch it?
Tesla Roadster – Photo / Tesla
Because that’s the secret. If we did all dance like Elon, devote ourselves to a higher cause, and put aside our worldly squabbles over money, power and fame, maybe, just maybe, we will survive and prosper, beyond all our imaginings. And that stolen car? It’s a Tesla Roadster hitting on maximum torque in Ludicrous mode.
And with every discovery shared, solution compounded and mission surpassed, we can escape together and let go of the past’s villainous errors. With luck to find a future worth all our hopes and dreams.
2019 Made Clear that the Climate Crisis is a Real and Growing Danger
The idea of Sustainable Energy Infrastructure, a.k.a. clean energy, dates back to the 1970s. As a matter of fact Earth Day, inaugurated April 22, 1970, was founded to raise awareness of environmental issues. The main issue for the first decade or so was pollution, hence clean energy. Although the “hole” in the ozone layer, first discovered in 1985, is not directly related to climate change, the root cause of both is the human release of pollutants into the atmosphere.
In 1969 the Cuyahoga River went up in flames and, when Time Magazine published dramatic photos of the blaze, outrage was ignited nationwide. So exactly 50 years ago, as of June 2019, the so called “Environmental Movement” began, and has now morphed into the Climate Crisis. The EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), established by, of all people, Richard Nixon, began its operation in the same year as Earth Day, on December 2, 1970. As for Solar Cells and power, the first working solar cell was built in 1883. 1832 there was already experimentation with electric vehicles and then, around 1870 working models were driven on the streets on London.
Sadly, the last 50 years (not to speak of the century plus since solar and EV solutions have been incubating) have been marked more by obstruction and obfuscation on the part of politicians and the government, rather than enough meaningful support for a cleaner, sustainable energy infrastructure.
The Real Truth Regarding Sustainable Energy and Why its Growth has been Blocked
Unfortunately, sometimes the most urgently needed answers are hidden in plain sight. The obvious stands directly in front of us staring us in the face . If someone were to ask what the greatest obstacle is to building a sustainable energy infrastructure to supersede current oil and fossil fuel-based sources? Some might say research and development, or new technology, perhaps EV adoption by the general public.
I hear many say “2019 was the year when the public woke up to the climate crisis”. This is a misconception. A small but rapidly growing number of people have started to wake up to the climate crisis. This has only just begun. We’re still only scratching the surface.
While all of these sound vaguely plausible there’s a much simpler explanation for what the true impediment is.
Below is a list showing the the top 10 oil producing countries in the world measured by barrels per day of output. Simply by looking at the top three USA, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, it can easily be seen where the real problem lies. Not only is the USA the largest producer of oil in the world, based on the barrels per day measurement, it is also the largest fossil fuel consuming nation on the planet. And those output numbers are growing.
Is it any wonder that the “oil president” has done everything in his power to block any efforts to include the USA in climate change related treaties or negotiations?
Further, the USA has increased its production of oil virtually every year this decade. Since the price of oil peaked in 2008 which also coincided with the financial crisis, the US has been doing everything in its power to reduce the price of oil in order, presumably, to attempt to create economic stimulus. While this may seem like a valid goal, it has a direct effect on the relative price of sustainable energy sources, which become more expensive in comparison as the price of oil goes down. Without government support, such as gasoline taxes reinvested in clean energy sources, the transition away from fossil fuels simply can not happen fast enough to avoid global catastrophe.
Simply by looking at the list of the top 10 oil producing countries in 2018 it can easily be seen the logic behind the massive and focused resistance to any improvement in sustainable energy generation. There is a massive incentive toward the self-perpetuation of these enterprises, right up until outright extinction is the fate of us all.
It is also no coincidence that countries who have done the most to create a price equilibrium between clean sustainable sources and fossil fuels through taxation of gasoline, primarily, happen to be those countries that produce and own the fewest oil assets. Germany is a perfect example as it leads the world in the increase in capacity of sustainable energy infrastructure.
The meaning and import attached to these simple facts go beyond the rise of EVs, Tesla and public awareness. Beyond the meteoric career of a charismatic wunderkind willing to take on established powers that have exhibited virtually infinite levels of corruption and suicidal stupidity. This issue, how to stop the obstruction of the ultimate and total transition away from poisonous fossil fuels, is the only issue that matters for the decade of the 2020s. The politicians and governments must be forced, not only to stop obstructing, but to support the transition with extreme prejudice.
Below: our top energy breakthrough stories from 2019
The Tipping Point is Behind us Now, It’s only a question of When EV’s Market Share will Overtake ICE
The most talked about car in 2019 has been Tesla’s Model 3, an electric vehicle from Tesla that is sleek, modern looking, and highly desirable. In Tesla’s latest quarter alone, the company has sold nearly 80,000 Model 3s, sustaining it as the most popular EV on the market.
This is not Tesla’s only achievement for the year. The company’s Cybertruck and Semi have received copious attention; its Model X and Model S continue to be popular; and consumers are eagerly awaiting 2020’s releases of the Model Y and Roadster. It’s been a long time coming, but thanks to Tesla, EVs are growing market share at an extremely rapid pace.
Other car manufacturers, even ones that have been stubbornly committed to ICE vehicles, have had to accept that the tide is turning. Naturally, many of these companies do not want Tesla to have a monopoly on EVs, and they want to have their own stake in the market before it’s too late. For that reason they appear to have capitulated and there is now a large and public shift towards the EV market.
Car companies from General Motors to Ford to Mercedes to VolksWagen and more are now hopping aboard the EV train, announcing new full electric models aimed at competing with Tesla in the upcoming year.
In addition, longer term multi-billion dollar investments to fund an infrastucture and development shift toward sustainable and EV systems have been announced. There has been some scepticism that these are more of a PR effort, with possible changes at anytime, likely due to the extremely poor efforts of the last 25 years, and even the perception that they were trying to intentionally “fail” with EVs just to postpne any meaningful transition away from fossil fuel based transportation.
While the oncoming change in car-culture may be attributed more to Tesla’s sexy, ulta-modern designs than it is to environmentalism, the widespread transition towards electric vehicles is still an enormous win for the battle against climate change.
Transportation is the top CO2 buring category and automobiles are the largest contributors to carbon emission from transport across the globe. The systemic reliance on gasoline makes cars even more environmentally harmful, as their very fuel comes from big oil companies that drill the earth without much regard for balanced ecosystems.
Finally, there has been a Major Shift in Thinking in the Auto Industry
In just the past year, however, we have seen a noticeable increase in the number of charging stations for EVs, and certain governments have started cracking down on vehicle-related greenhouse gas emissions. These changes in infrastructure and politics reflect evolutions in consumer behavior—evolutions that bode well for our planet.
Between the VolksWagen ID.4, Ford Mustang EV, Mercedes ESQ, and all the upcoming Tesla models, there are about to be a whole lot more electric cars on the market, which will (hopefully) create healthy competition.
There remians skepticism in the automobile industry, implying that this could, indeed be some sort of elaborate head fake. In response to General Motor’s recent announcement to invest $2.3 billion in an EV battery factory, for example, Toyota Executive Bob Carter warned of an “electrified armageddon” for the industry. Indeed, despite EVs recent surge in popularity, gasoline-powered cars continue to dominate the streets. To invest so much in EVs at this point is a bold, somewhat presumptuous move for all of the companies, and they run the risk of overshooting consumer demand.
There is Still only one EV Company that Stands Above in Every Way
And the Toyota response while both tone deaf and likely misguided, is not wrong in the sense that a worldwide shift away from a fossil fuel based economic system will certainly lead to hardship and immense challenges and a long time. The problem with trying to wish away that fact is that, by extending the intentional sate of denial that has persisted for over a half century, things will only be worse when the inevitible and necessary changes finally come.
This exposes the brilliance of Tesla’s approach of starting with high end luxury vehicles, spurring demand and desire and then building downmarket into more afforable vehicles as economies of scale begin to kick in. And, even more prescient is Tesla’s stated mission “to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy” which removes any ambiguity or hesitation and signals a 100% clear commitment to the most important goal a transportation and energycompany can have.
Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.
Nevertheless, while this “plays” as an example of corporations displaying a logical reaction to the market for the benefit of the environment, it could, in actuality, more likely be an example of corporations playing the market to make money as per usual. The less cynical among us must hope, nevertheless that this is truly at least partially an ecological conscious choice that happens to transparently project an immediate economic benefit. If these companies are correct, and EVs do ultimately lead the car market, then it will not just satisfy the executive’s bottom line, but it will also help make the planet a cleaner and safer place.
Tesla Storefront on Kurfürstendamm in Berlin, Germany – Photo / Monique Ly
Brandenberg premier Sees Tesla move as the start of a Trend…
The rapid build-out of Elon Musk’s Gigafactory 4 near Berlin is getting praise from local officials for influencing a trend toward local job and factory growth. In Germany, which is at the forefront of the transition to renewable energy sources, currently at 40% from wind and solar power, with peaks up to 65% in a given week, and local carmakers in a ramp-up to increased EV production, those same manufacturers have recently chosen cheaper foreign alternatives for their new factories.
BMW and Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes Benz, both chose Hungry in recent years for new plants.
However, since Tesla’s announcement of the new Gigafactory near Berlin, Dietmar Woidke, premier of Brandenburg, the area where Berlin is located, has said that he has seen a significant uptick in interest from other companies to move to the region.
“Tesla will cause other companies to follow,”
– Dietmar Woidke, premier of Brandenburg, Germany
“They are already on their way. I’m hearing there are further inquiries with the communities and the regional business development program. Tesla will cause other companies to follow,”, he was quoted as saying in “Die Welt” a german business magazine.
Already expecting Deal Confirmations before the end of the year
He indicated that his office was already in talks with other companies in the electric transportation and energy storage sectors, but could not divulge any names due to non-disclosure agreements.
He also indicated that there would likely be an announcement on the matter “before Christmas”.
With goals, clearly achievable, to increase the percentage of clean energy sources that supply the country to 65% by 2030, and now the transportation infrastructure transitioning to electric vehicles (as well as other non-ICE systems), Germany appears to be on its way to becoming a model for other countries to follow, toward a future of reduced carbon emissions.
LA Takes Tackling Smog and CO2 Emissions Seriously
Technology leaders from the city of Los Angeles recently announced what they are calling the Zero Emission 2028 Roadmap 2.0. In this outline, the leaders propose a plan by which the bustling metropolis reduces its greenhouse gas emissions by 25% within the next eight years—an ambitious and unprecedented goal that outdoes both the California State and Paris Climate Accord proposals.
Los Angeles is known as a progressive place, filled with creative people willing to adapt to new ideas and fight for just causes. Nevertheless, the SoCal city is also known for its soul crushing traffic. Even with four million residents, finding an Angelino without reason to complain about the town’s constantly congested crisscrossed freeways and lack of reliable public transportation is nearly impossible.
The Californians who devised this plan were not unaware of LA’s traffic issues. Since Many of them live in the city, these tech leaders can tell from the air pollution alone that vehicles are Los Angeles’ heaviest contributors to carbon emissions. If they are serious about their plan, which appears to be the case, then they will have to do something fast about all the cars and trucks smogging up the roads.
The obvious solution would be to create a more effective mass transit system in Los Angeles. However, with an infrastructure unfit for trains and countless failed attempts to move LA drivers onto buses, such a change is unlikely to catch on now. Instead, the planners are looking to the future of electric vehicles for a possible answer to the city’s pollution problems.
The Zero Emission 2028 Roadmap 2.0 focuses heavily on LA’s transition towards EVs. Specifically, by 2028, the plan aims for EVs to account for 80% of all vehicles sold in the city. Simultaneously, it wants LA and the surrounding area to create more EV-compatible infrastructure and zero-emission goods, rebranding the City of Angels as the EV Capital of the World.
City Proposed Solutions as Federal and State Level Options Failed
Of course, not all vehicles emit equally. If Los Angeles wants to achieve its goal by 2028, then it first needs to attack the heavy-duty, gas-guzzling vehicles—buses and trucks. Luckily, as of this year especially, there are many plus-sized EVs for the city to choose from. Tesla recently released the Cybertruck, and many even larger zero-emission vehicles are on the way from a wide variety of car and truck manufacturers. The California Air Resource Board is even proposing an Advanced Clean Truck regulation, which would require one out of every five trucks sold in the state by 2030 to be zero-emission models.
Earlier this year, however, the state of California lost a battle against the Trump administration (as well as a few car manufacturers) for the right to set its own emissions standards. While the Golden State was denied the right to hold itself to a higher ecological standard than the federal government mandates, individual cities have a little more wiggle room. Therefore, Los Angeles is not just creating these standards for itself; it is hoping that these efforts will inspire other municipalities in California and around the nation to follow suit. If the federal government will not solve the problem, and the state governments are barred from taking action, then perhaps it is up to the local governments to evoke change from the bottom up.
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is in full support of the plan. Known to be an environmentally sensitive politician, Garcetti proposed a Green New Deal to the city back in April, outlining ways for LA to combat climate change. The Zero Emission 2028 Roadmap 2.0 is therefore in his wheelhouse, as it accelerates the already ambitious conservation goals set out in the previous proposal. Also supporting the plan are the Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator (LACI) and the Transportation Electrification Partnership (TEP) as well as private sector partners Tesla, BMW, Audi, BYD, Greenlots, and Proterra.
Rumors Already Predicting big things for the iPhone 12: 5G plus Starlink will only Add to the Furor…
Seems like just yesterday that Apple Inc. released the iPhone 11 and 11 Pro. Consumers are still riding high on the hype and performance of these latest smartphone models. Nevertheless, Apple is already looking to the future and creating estimates for the iPhone 12 in 2020. According to Digitimes, Apple expects that the iPhone 12 will be one of the company’s most successful models.
While the 11 and 11 Pro are expected to have sold 80 million units by the end of 2019, Apple predicts that they will receive over 100 million orders for the 12 next year.
Apple anticipates such high figures for the iPhone 12 in part due to oncoming innovations in 5G and satellite Internet. While the software and hardware details of the new phone remain shrouded in mystery for now, there is high confidence that the device will be built for the latest advances in Internet speed and 5G networking—a powerful upgrade that is bound to bring in many customers.
Right now, the term “satellite Internet” may seem like something slow, old-fashioned, and used only by people living in remote locations where traditional broadband sources are unavailable. This may be the case at the moment, but new technology known as “Low Earth Orbit” micro-satellites could bring satellite Internet access with fiber optic speeds and beyond. Constellations of these micro-satellites could not only deliver the internet to more people around the world, they could potentially reinvent satellite Internet as a high-speed and perhaps even premiere way for virtually all people to get online.
Many tech companies have been trying to perfect micro-satellites and get the upper hand and dominate the skies. Leading the charge is Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which intends to cover the stratosphere with thousands of low-orbit satellites through its StarLink initiative. The company has already gotten approval by the FCC to launch several thousand micro-satellites into the sky, and they intend to keep launching more until they have a massive interconnected network of satellites orbiting the globe.
Meanwhile, Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson & OneWeb, Google, and Facebook are all playing competitive catch up with SpaceX on the micro-satellite front. Jeff Bezos has been pursuing Project Kuiper, a satellite-oriented task which aims to provide worldwide broadband access via space. While certainly not as far along as StarLink, Kuiper plans to have hundreds of satellites in the sky in the near future.
Google has an alternative route to Low Earth Orbit micro-satellites, relying on weather balloons with antennas to stand in for cell towers and provide service to greater areas—an initiative that the company has coined “Loon.” Simultaneously, Facebook tried to make headway with its “FreeBasics” project, whereby the social network also wants to get more people active and connected on the web, and, of course, logged into its Social Network.
5G Speeds will be the Big Upgrade but the extended Competition and Coverage of Satellites are Next
After purchasing Intel’s 5G modem unit earlier this year, and with 5G modems by Qualcom already widely expected to be in the iPhone 12, Apple is uniquely positioned to be at the forefront of this looming expansion of mobile data networks and satellite internet access points.
It’s important to remember that 5G and satellite internet both have the potential to be much faster than current broadband connections. However, the roll out timing is uncertain and the speed increases will depend on various systems and stages of network build as well as many other factors. For example, an ultra fast satellite system is being built by LeoSat which will be used by Enterprise level customers at up 5.2 Gigabits, close to double the speed of fiber, but this will be exclusively business users, at least initially.
It is the sheer breath of competition and the wide array of systems in the mix that insures that there will be more options, and more speed coming online by 2021. Not only for mobile phones but for mobile laptops and as wireless home and business routing systems also.
What all this means, in a nutshell, for Apple, is that more people will want to buy smartphones that are capable of accessing these newer, faster internet providers. If StarLink (or any of the other upcoming satellite services) can provide a greater fraction of the world with Internet access, more people will desire the latest devices to make full use that Internet. Likewise, these consumers will also want the device that is most compatible with 5G and micro-satellite technology.
Given Apple’s record, the company will probably release the iPhone 12 in September, 2020. 5G will already be in an ongoing build-out phase, with T-mobil launching on December 6, 2019 and Verizon, AT&T and Sprint already in the mix. StarLink will likely not be up and ready by that time—they are aiming for an initial roll out to start as early as mid 2020 and with continuous expansion to 2022 and beyond. However, the project will certainly be further along in becoming a worldwide sensation, with launches of multiple satellites happening every few months.
With 5G speed, and an Operating System fit for the latest forms access in its arsenal, and with the fastest chips and most powerful software and systems to accommodate the added bandwidth, the iPhone 12 has the potential to be a blockbuster of historic proportions, even by Apple’s high standards.
Memes and Ridicule are spreading the word: There’s a New Truck in Town…
It’s been quite a week in Tesla news since the Cybertruck was unveiled near the SpaceX headquarters on November 21st. There’s been a rollercoaster of love and mocking, most of which has been entertaining. Once the initial barrage of silly memes hit like an avalanche on Twitter, auto insiders piled on, in a nice way with tongue in cheek, and all seemed to combine to take an already massive press event to an even higher level.
While pre-orders for the Model 3 peaked around half-a-million, and as all would know by now, that model is a huge success story, 250k in pre-orders in less than a week for Cybertruck is not a bad start. Yes, the pre-orders for the Cybertruck are only $100, more a token of appreciation than a hard reservation, and are fully refundable at that, but for a truck that was roundly derided and even scornfully laughed at, this cannot be considered an insignificant number.
There has been much speculation, as the pre-order tally kept growing, that this could all be a ruse and that the publicity would spur on accelerated development at other automakers, which does appear to be the case. However, amid all the noise and squawking, the name, the image, the logo and the concept are splashing across the world like a tsunami of retro-nostalgic-futurism gone wild.
And, deep deep below the surface of that wave, there is something more. Much more. As is often the case with Elon Musk led projects, an attempt was clearly made to break the mold when it comes to the engineering and feature-set capability, not just the aesthetic ethos.
“So, normally the way that a truck is designed, you have a body on frame, you have a bed on frame and the body and the bed don’t do anything useful. They’re carried like cargo, like a sack of potatoes. It was the way that aircraft used to be designed, when they had biplanes, basically. The key to creating an effective monoplane was a stressed skin design. You move the stress to the outside skin.”
– Elon Musk at the Tesla Cybertruck Unveil Event
As can be seen by looking online at the stats, or reading some good Teslarati articles that go further into the deeply practical innovations, there’s a lot more here than meets the eye.
2019 has been a Watershed Year for Tesla and Elon Musk and 2020 will see more Massive Changes
The 250k pre-orders represent, at the very least, a massive world-wide focus group on the idea of the Cybertruck, if not the truck itself. This focus group is very, very enthusiastic about the idea. How much of this is celebrity love? How much is tree-hugger-meets-mad-max eco-rescue lovers? How many are tired of the macho-hillbilly-redneck pro-gas-guzzling Marlboro-Man image of “Made-Ford-Tough”? A lot, clearly.
“So if you think about a truck, you want a truck that’s tough. You want a truck that’s really tough, not fake tough.”
– ELON MUSK AT THE TESLA CYBERTRUCK UNVEIL EVENT
And what if it is just a lot of people with a C-note to spare that would like to vote for an overthrow of the old guard and see the transition to a sustainable energy transportation infrastructure at least get off its ass?
In Southern California you get on the freeway anytime, anywhere and you will see old guard 19mpg, 40 gallon per tank monsters with fat, stupid oversized clown wheels as far as the eye can see. What if they were mixed with Tesla Cybertrucks, in addition to the Model S and Model 3s that are already a California freeway mainstay. Would that be “Blade-Runner-esque? And what of it? At lease a new day will look new and be different.
Haven’t we seen enough of the Status Quo? Haven’t the Dinosaurs had their day? Change can be refreshing, even while retro in a cyberpunk kind of way, and in the end, Saving the Planet and Having Fun Doing It is a much better way than the way we had.
More than 200k in pre-orders and Future buyers posting Proof Online as a Badge of Honor
The Cybertruck unveiling at the SpaceX adjacent Tesla Design Center on November 21st was one for the the ages. The initial reaction by the throngs of invited press (invitations were required and very hard to come by for the ultra-anticipated event) was to run with the obvious: smash proof window failure and wild twitter responses to the extreme throw-back-style design.
Elon Musk even pre-revealed what the general look the truck would be before the event, as if he was concerned that people needed a preview to reduce the shock of seeing the radical concept without a prior hint of what was to come.
Electric motors also have insane torque. If we load both trucks to the max, electric still wins. Physics is the law, everything else is a recommendation.
And then, within 24 hours of the unveiling, literally 100s of online media outlets pumped out articles, perhaps with a ratio of two or three to one ridiculing the design, or the issues with the on-stage window demonstration vs. the minority actually digging deeper into the truck itself and how it might actually fare in the real world. One outlet even speculated that the whole concept was 100% fake and that there was no chance that any truck, at least not similar to this one, would ever be produced.
In the run-up to the epic unveiling, Musk hinted that the truck would possibly be influenced by the “Blade Runner” aesthetic and cyberpunk ethos and might be like “an armored personnel carrier from the future”. And how spot on those hints turned out to be!
Once the pre-orders started to flood in, something changed, big time.
Within 72 hours Elon had tweeted milestones for the $100 fully refundable pre-orders. First that approximately 160k and then more than 200k orders had been taken. Not quite at the level of the Model 3 pre-orders, and at a much lower cost (Model 3 was a $1000 deposit) but, for an unveiling that was considered by the press, generally, to be a failure and even worthy of mocking and derision, this was an abrupt, if not surprising turn-around.
Not surprising because this type of press-vs-the public behavior is commonplace in all areas of commerce and entertainment. Just last summer, Disney’s Lion King was almost universally panned by critics, then went on, predictably, to be one of the biggest financial successes in movie history. Cybertruck is unlikely to be that extreme as it bounces back from the initial negativity coming from the press, but what the bounce back says about Tesla, climate change and the future is an even more fascinating story, to observe and speculate on, than that cute and cuddly digital cat.
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Tesla’s Support and Status as a Hero in the Fight against the Fossil Fuel Industrial Complex and ICE automakers runs deep and strong
The speculation on why Elon Musk chose to design and offer this vehicle at this time has obviously run rampant. There are many theories, most of them pretty silly, and, short of a detailed announcement from the man himself, there can be no definitive statement.
However, now that the pre-orders are proving to be robust and the company’s stock has rebounded (probably unrelated but, that’s another story), the possibility of a “crazy like a fox” story behind it all begins to make more sense.
Reason Cybertruck is so planar is that you can’t stamp ultra-hard 30X steel, because it breaks the stamping press
One interesting development is the tweets of the deposit receipts as a badge of honor among the faithful. This could just be folks who love everything about the truck and it’s radical design and features.
It could also, however, be something larger in play. Once the truck concept vs. the EV concept is taken into account the process of observing social and commercial trends in this case becomes very interesting.
Factoid 1: Incidents involving Tesla charging stations being blocked and vandalized have generally been perpetrated by strange rogue Pick-up truck owners and there has been an exaggerated hate and pride in driving a gas guzzling anti-Tesla. It’s bizarre to think that Tesla in this case could be creating a kind of counter force to these oddly “pro-gasoline” wackos who seems to see Tesla as some sort of flashpoint for their retro-oil-fetish. And, the Cybertruck is bulletproof (!?).
Factoid 2: While it has been well documented that Tesla stands virtually alone against the power structure of the entire world in its crusade to rid the world of ICE vehicles ASAP, the degree to which the general public has a strong desire and motive to support the company and its products, above and beyond a love for the products themselves or its leader, is as yet an unknown quantity.
In the press at large (many who are beholden to the ICE power structure) Tesla is often seen as just another carmaker selling wares, while customers may have a deeper connection as they search for ways to support solutions to the climate crisis as individuals. This could be a major and growing force in the days and months ahead, and can be a powerful resource to help to keep Tesla afloat even when Elon Musk decides to tackle challenging and even outlandish ventures.
Factoid 3: Perhaps more fantasy based than fact supported, the connection between the climate crisis as a motivation to buy and EV truck may go even deeper and wider than just the battery power. As a virtual disaster survival vehicle with various features that would be potentially life saving in a post-catastrophe situation – such as being employed as a bug-out vehicle to escape a flooded urban area. Various features seem to be conceived in response to a potential dystopian fantasy, but could be extremely valuable in a real emergency. The almost tank like durability, the shatterproof windows (as long as a sledgehammer doesn’t hit the door first), the battery powered cooking facilities in the camping-mode version, even the optional ATV come to mind.
“an armored personnel carrier from the future.”
– Elon Musk
Taking this thought experiment to its furthest possible conclusion its not hard to imagine a future (the Cybertruck could be on streets by perhaps 2021-2022) where the factions who support ICE trucks and the anti-fossil fuel “warriors”, each become radicalized and clash in some crazy mad max survival contest on US highways.
A more Optimistic stroke of Genius could also have played a role
Another very interesting possibility is that Elon Musk, known for being a master playing in marketing ventures, as well as being dedicated to sharing the EV market gladly with “competitors”, who he sees more as partners, once they take up the mantel of helping to accelerate the global transition to sustainable energy transportation.
It is no coincidence that GM, Ford, and many others have announced EV truck projects and details in the wake of the Cybertruck unveiling. It is a given that they will be watching very closely as Tesla ventures in to the traditional automakers most lucrative market segment.
“Trucks have been the same for a very long time like 100 years, we wanted to try something different,”
– Elon musk
For Musk and Tesla, however, it is clearly a win-win if you understand the higher purpose and motivation that infuses all activities within the company and yet is often misunderstood by others.
Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.
If the Cybertruck does not command a large market share and somehow ends up like the DeLorean that it resembles, it will have, nevertheless, been a huge success in forcing the hand of the legacy automakers toward offering more EV options asap.
The legacy ICE carmakers cannot afford to wait while hoping that Tesla will fail. That phase of the battle over sustainable vs fossil-fuel transportation is over. Tesla is a force to be reckoned with and the Cybertruck, along with its on-going army of supporters who’ve ponied up C-notes, are making themselves seen and heard and stand as a warning that it’s not only the climate that’s changing on this planet.
