Tag Archives: bitcoin price prediction

China Central Bank declares Bitcoin & all crypto transactions illegal

China is at the forefront of government opposition to cryptocurrencies

The central bank of China stated as a declaration that all transactions involving Bitcoin and any “virtual” currencies illegal, according to the AP.

This seems to be an escalation of the various methods being used to block and prohibit the use of any currency or “money” outside the direct control of the Chinese government.

In a notice released by the central bank the reasoning was elaborated on – stating that digital currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and others disrupt the current financial system and encourage and help facilitate money-laundering and other crimes.

“Virtual currency derivative transactions are all illegal financial activities and are strictly prohibited,”

–the People’s Bank of China

The price of Bitcoin fell, to $41,180, in the hours after the announcement. Other major cryptocurrencies also fell. . Ethereum dropped almost 10%, falling from $3,100 to around $2,758.

Those levels appeared to be a short term low as there has been a recovery bounce since the initial reaction selloff.

China is gearing up for it’s own ‘innovations’ involving digital currencies and transactions

This clampdown follows the banning of Bitcoin mining and an exodus of a large number of Chinese mining operations, many relocating to the US, Europe, Southeast Asia and elsewhere. At the peak, Chinese miners accounted for around 3/4 of the world’s electricity consumption related to crypto mining, according to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption index.

That share is still the highest, though far lower, with the USA being the second largest consumer of electricity used for Bitcoin mining.

There is a worldwide “showdown” of sorts building, with cryptocurrency adherents touting, often with great resolve, the privacy, anonymity and “freedom” of using the coins, while many governments, China, and Turkey being outspoken, consider the potential losses that could come from allowing private actors to control financial transactions.

Although fiat currencies all have cash, paper bills, that can also be used anonymously, the potential criminal laundering has government controls and laws in place to minimize (or at least attempt to minimize) the magnitude of the problem.

tumbles

Governments getting increasingly worried as crypto adoption continues to expand worldwide

Many governments, including the People’s Bank of China, are developing electronic versions of the local fiat currency, such as China’s yuan for example. to facilitate cashless transactions which, unlike with Bitcoin, can be more easily tracked and controlled by the local authorities, communist or otherwise.

Calls and warning are also building with Regulators in many countries, including the US, warning of the dangers and emphasizing that they want cryptocurrencies to have greater oversight.

For example, Gary Gensler, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, recently said that investors need more protection in the cryptocurrency market, calling the current state of the largely unregulated market “rife with fraud, scams and abuse” and compared it to the “Wild West.”

The SEC has already cracked down on cases of alleged freud involving crypto, but Gensler believes that the agency will need more authority from Congress to and funding to adequately regulate the market..

As a result, miners have been moving operations out of China.

Two years ago, China alone accounted for around three-quarters of all the electricity used for crypto mining, by far the most in the world, according to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption index.

Expect more government announcements involving crypto and new ways to try to control or inhibit its proliferation

The looming showdown appears heading for a significant and dangerous climax, with both sides, crypto enthusiasts and private holders and users of the coins on the one side, and, in some cases, terrified governments on the other wanting to outlaw and stamp out the entire sector.

In the US this will be difficult, with so many high profile and powerful individuals and companies already embracing the idea that the future will contain, at least for the foreseeable time frame, both the government controlled fiat system and the surging and diverse cryptocurrency systems.


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Top 10 Netflix Series ‘StartUp’ Eerily Predicted Today’s World in 2016

In Netflix top 10 recently as the premonitions keep cropping up

First, to be clear, this series was produced by Crackle (Originally Sony Crackle) and in-all 3 seasons were produced between 2016 (first premiered on September 6, 2016) and 2018. It stars Adam Brody, Edi Gathegi, Otmara Marrero, Martin Freeman, Ron Perlman, Addison Timlin, and Mira Sorvino.

On November 15, 2017, the series was renewed for a third season which was released on November 1, 2018. On May 4, 2021, all three seasons were made available on Netflix and surged up into the top ten in spite of the age.

The correspondences are loose, as is the connection between the subject matter and the real world analogs. The series is dramatic and emotional more than technical and the title “StartUp” is a bit meh. It conjures up images of Silicon Valley nerds and other tech bros and lame plots with outdated “dot-com” plot twists.

“StartUp” could not be further from any of that. Set in Miami (great first choice) it has the reputation of that city for money laundering, drugs and financial crimes as a backdrop.

Ultimately it’s about life and loss, the life and death struggle to find the “American Dream” and at the same time has connections to Crypto, Alt Coins, Web 3.0, The Dark Net, the criminal underworld, specifically financial crimes, Silk Road and, of course, tech start ups and venture capital.

The intertwining of this trio from disparate backgrounds is awkward but at the core of the story

It begins with “Izzy” Isabella Morales, who is a genus code crunching hacker who’s struggling to try to launch a crypto coin, “GenCoin” that she has been working on for over five years, since her time on scholarship at Stanford.

There’s not a lot of detail about her code and I don’t recall the term “blockchain” being mentioned, but they do mention bitcoin throughout the show and, considering it was around 2016 during production it is interesting to see where much of the plot fits 2021 far more.

A kind a linking character in the show is FBI agent, Phil Rask played by Martin Freeman who serves, wonderfully, to give exposition and a factual tour of the Miami crime scene and how he, and the FBI are swimming in a virtual ocean of corruption. If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em appears to be his motto as he is actively soliciting bribes from the jump.

Nick’s father, who is both well connected in the upscale world of financial corruption that operates openly within the big banks and corporations of the established Miami elite, is put into a jam by Agent Rask, forcing him to search for a fast escape from Miami.

Reluctantly, Nick is pulled into his father’s criminal dealings, the last thing he ever wanted, and as a result crosses paths both with FBI Agent Rask and, ultimately, invests in Izzy’s GenCoin project using his Dad’s dirty money. Once Izzy connects to Nick Talman (Adam Brody), the plot takes off.

Ronald Dacey who is a Haitian “gang leader” has a special, unique and unexpected role to play in the series. He is the human embodiment of the way the system favors the white collar criminals at the top, including the FBI, in this case, while the poor minority populations, epitomized by the tough Haitian ghetto in Miami, are forced into drug dealing and violent turf wars just to survive.

It turns out that Izzy, Nick and Ronald are not really that far removed from one another as they soon find out that a big chunk of the money Nick got from his Father turns out to belong to Ronald and his “gang”. The money was supposed to be laundered and managed by the bank where Nick’s father worked.

In an intense climax of the initial establishing episodes, the unlikely three, like a crypto-criminal Mod-squad end up as partners in the start up that they create to launch Izzy’s Gencoin.

GenCoin comes across as a kind of mini-Ethereum or alt-coin ahead of its time, and at the same time there is a dramatic interaction where the anti-government and grey-market potential and meaning of crypto is, albeit simplistically, superimposed on a critique of the social structures of the status quo.

Once again epitomized first by Miami corruption and criminal financial history as a way to underscore the desperate need, and also from the point of view of the show’s heroes, who decide to fight for a massive world changing digital transformation.

Though disconcerting at times, personal struggles and pain are superimposed over the passionate striving of the main characters

So, while all of this and the show in general, is dramatic with endless plot twists and great long-form character portrayals by the stars, particularly Ronald played by Edi Gathegi and Isabelle Morales played by Otmara Marrero, the correspondences that jump out during the show seem to emerge in strange and sometimes eerie ways.

For example, at one point they attend a huge “crypto convention” in Miami (first time in Miami after previously being held in LA) and, while they are not particularly successful in that instance, the size and stature of the show mirrors the conference that is happening literally as this article is being written (June 4-5, 2021) also in Miami (!).

While the BitCoin conference has been around since 2019, that year the number of attendees was only 1900 and is expected to be far more this year. While it is a coincidence that Miami was chosen in 2021 for the first time, it is a bit uncanny when watching a 5 year old episode where the exact conference is held in the exact location…

Another interesting corresondence has to do with events that transpire in the second and third seasons (spoiler alert). Through wild, dramatic twists and turns Gencoin is no longer the focus and the trio re-unite to launch a second tech project “Araknet” which is portrayed in the film as a kind of “dark-web 3.0 network”.

Interestingly, there are several very current projects that, while not directly a mirror of Araknet, have many of the same qualities and goals, though with less dramatic and sinister details. The biggest is that Dfinity and Internet Computer are trying to “extend”the current public internet network rather than launch a separate “private” Web 3.0 that has decentralized privacy at its core.

The DFINITY Foundation is a not-for-profit scientific research organization based in Zurich, Switzerland, that oversees research centers in Palo Alto, San Francisco, and Zurich, as well as teams in Japan, Germany, the UK, and across the United States. The Foundation’s mission is to build, promote, and maintain the Internet Computer.

One example is “Internet Computer” which is being developed by Dfinity, a start up in Switzerland. They are developing, in simplified terms a kind of blockchain based “internet 3.0” hence the cute catchy name.

Araknet promotional marketing from “StartUp” sounds again, bizarrely considering the time frame, like what you can read on the Dfinity web site today.

A slightly less direct correspondence is Helium. A project to crate a separate iOT network using long-range wireless nodes to create a decentralized wireless infrastructure.

The show emphasizes heavily the human drama and struggles of three special individuals as they try to find a path through a world of financial corruption, explosive technology changes and a disire to fight for freedom more so than individual wealth or power exclusively.

The show deserves its popularity and the attention it has been given. I would recommend it with the warning that the prophetic foreshadowing of today, while remarkable, is not the primary through-line of the narrative.

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Crypto-Kids of TikTok will Never Give Up on Blockchain

Above: ‘Photo Collage / Lynxotic / Unsplash

The TikTok indicator is saying crypto is here to stay…

It was, astoundingly, less than a month ago, May 8th, 2021, that Ethereum reached an all time high of $4,169. That was two days after Dogecoin, full of Musk momentum, hit .69 cents, after starting the year around .10 cents. Bitcoin had peaked about a month earlier at $63,674 on April 12th.

As is so often seen in manias, bubbles and feeding frenzies, at the time you could not find a person in America who was not talking about crypto. The proverbial shoe-shine boy was now your cousin, your uncle even your grandmother and they were all bursting with FOMO after reading the articles, especially the ones about the Dogecoin millionaires, who had made fortunes starting with a tiny sum.

Now, many of those same people are seeing a typical reversal, correction, bear phase, whatever you want to call it, and they are just as convinced of crypto’s demise today as they were that it was a sure-thing less than a month ago.

The kids get it and are not backing down

Much like TikTok itself, the later arrivals to the huge phenomena that is Crypto are the old and out-of-touch, not the young and fast. Interestingly, an anecdotal survey of young and successful crypto “influencers” on TikTok and other social media are not shocked about the downturn. They get it.

Many have been learning about and actively involved with the crypto world for years. There is a real sense that the corrupt events that led to the financial crisis and near collapse in 2008 shaped their thinking and hardened their resolve to search for a better way. Crypto’s ideals and independent foundations have provided that in a real, tangible way, it seems.

While the mainstream of the media and the bulk of the financial establishment swing from an almost grudging respect to complete derision and rejection, it appears to be the underlying concepts and ideologies that present such a stark contrast in the perspective of up and coming generations.

https://www.tiktok.com/@cryptocita/video/6954932256267980037?sender_device=pc&sender_web_id=6967902097740793350&is_from_webapp=v1&is_copy_url=0

While perhaps no less vulnerable to the excitement of 20,000 % gains and other sensational enticements, there is a somewhat surprising depth and resolve that is demonstrated in a level headed and clear thinking allegiance to the reasons crypto was created in the first place.

The outlandish price gains (and drops) are only window dressing

At the core of the question of crypto’s eventual widespread adoption and long term success lies a simple truth: fiat currencies and the governments that print them are a big problem for the world’s future. And, naturally, the new generations of the future will be those that are most affected.

What Elon Musk recently called “The true battle… between fiat & crypto” is one that Gen-Z appear to understand in ways that 100-year-old billionaires like Warren Buffet and his side-kick Charlie Munger do not. Or maybe they just side with the financial establishment they helped build, to the bitter end.

For any reading this that also “get it”, it would be wise to understand that, even at this early phase in the future of “the true battle” there is an army rising. It is not one of suicidal fossil fuels and battlefield tanks but one of ideology and belief in the possibility of a better way.

The army that will stand up for the survival and continued development of cryptocurrencies and blockchain and “DeFi” are not a few random conscripts, they are the generations of the future and they have chosen a side.

For that reason, all signs point to an unlikely permanent collapse of cryptocurrencies and an impossibility of banning or stopping them. It is already too late to prevent their eventual rise.


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Bitcoin and Crypto’s Crash is not the First, the Largest or the Last

Above: Photo by Michael Krahn on Unsplash with elements added by Lynxotic

Coming after a frenzied run-up the hand wringing is no surprise

I many ways it seems as if Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies appeared suddenly in 2021 out of the head of Zeus. Protean and fully formed, with billions and trillions in market caps, and all your sisters, brothers, cousins and even the Uber driver climbing aboard.

And the FOMO blog posts, where every hour an innocent reader is assaulted by a story, perhaps true, perhaps exaggerated and certainly foolhardy in retrospect, of an innocent putting their life savings into Dogecoin and suddenly having, theoretically, huge gains at their disposal.

Meanwhile, craggy faced, ancient stock market mavens would interject famous last words that now appear to be wise. However, all that notwithstanding, this week’s crash is nothing new or unexpected.

In reality, as can be seen from the graphic below, provided by Visual Capitalist, there have been so may crashes / corrections and doomsday prognostications since 2012 in Bitcoin that it seems like a miracle the there’s any thing such as Crypto at all.

There’s a reason it’s not dead and it’s in the DNA

The resiliency, far from a shock to those that have been around more than a fortnight, is kinda the point. When Satoshi Nakamoto built the system architecture of Bitcoin and since then inspired the over 8000 new crypto entities that have been developed, it was, just like the internet itself that was build to survive WWIII, supposed to be as indestructible as possible.

Like physical gold, which is considered have been adopted as a store of value partly due to its indestructibility and immutability (alchemy notwithstanding) the volatility and sometimes violent-seeming life story of Bitcoin is a necessary adjust to its role in finance, commerce and even individual monetary survival.

Not for the faint of heart, perhaps

While the mainstream and those forces opposed to the adoption or survival of Bitcoin and Crypto are out in force pointing to the “unsuitability” of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for any “legitimate” use as a trade or savings vehicle, the progress so far, in spite of the obvious fact that volatility has always been baked in to the situation, is an obvious refutation of that viewpoint.

Will the current drop in dollar values relative to Bitcoin end it’s popularity and strip it of the respect it has thusfrar earned among many? In a word, no. In essence what is happening is, as many have foretold, what happens often and repeatedly, the excess attention and dollars that were pumped into crypto by you brother, sister, cousin and Uber driver are now getting blown out, since those were more speculation and psychosis than any kind of vote for viability or permanency.

And, why not? Where was to concern, shock and hesitation by the masses when the prices seemed to only rise for weeks and even months across so many products and coins it was impossible to keep count? Why was to feeding frenzy and the mania-like piling on not ignored as an anomaly?

The herd does as the herd will do. Diamond hands and Paper hands will ebb and flow as long as the rivers flow to the sea and humans herd like buffalo. And, in all likelihood, dollars and euros and yen will be long forgotten when the last bitcoin is transferred to the final wallet in the sky.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Lynxotic does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.


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There’s more to Money than Dead Presidents: Crypto is Alive and Well

Above: photo – Dead Presidents Collage – Lynxotic

Haters like Buffet and Mark Cuban’s cheerleading are off base and spreading confusion

Disclaimer first: This opinion article is not investment advice and does not advocate buying any investment vehicle or currency

There are so many misconceptions propagated far and wide these days that it’s hard to choose a place to start. First it’s important to recognize that crypto currencies are not stocks or companies, yes that’s obvious but one of the biggest “anti” argument these days is that there’s an absurdity to the aggregate total value of a “coin” being more than the market cap of the stock of a particular company.

“Ethereum is now worth more than Bank of America”, this nonsense comparison goes, as if the market cap of a stock and the price of a coin times the number of coins in existence has any meaning whatsoever.

Following this logic, however, beneath all the hype, both pro-crypto and anti-crypto, lies a hidden thread to an actual underlying truth.

Though based on obvious common sense, this thread is potentially confusing and convoluted, to say the least. But without seeing it clearly the misconceptions will just keep getting more ridiculous.

In order to illustrate the conundrum a bit of background is needed. For example:

Stocks, in the US are priced in dollars. But how are dollars priced? Isn’t just as accurate to say that when the “price” of the DJIA moves higher (3,4050 at this writing) it is the value of the dollar, in relation to the DJIA that went down?

While this requires a kind of mental gymnastics, these are only due to the constant bombardment meant to keep you from seeing this 100% valid way of viewing stock valuations based in dollars.

There’s another kind of tacit misinformation and that is stating that “inflation” is only relevant when it’s measured by the government. For example if the “bull market” that began in 2009 and continues into 2021 represented a huge increase in stock prices, that is asset inflation.

The inverse of asset inflation is a reduction in dollar value. Less shares of a given stock can be bought for the same number of dollars. The dollars are worth less.

Read more:

And further, crypto, such as BitCoin is measured as having more or less value in dollars. Who is to say the massive rise in the dollar “value” of BitCoin is not representative of a decline in the “intrinsic” value of dollars.

The truth is often hidden in plain sight and that is what drives traditional markets

And that is precisely the point. BitCoin’s existence, which is locked in the mind of Satoshi Nakamoto (if he indeed exists) was indicated cryptically (no pun intended) to be a kind of answer to the instability of the global financial system as was evidence in the crisis of 2008. Taking place nearly concurrently with the birth of the idea of BitCoin.

Seeing the dollar as having a “stable” value and measuring a companies value, via it’s share price, is, let’s just say, perhaps 100 times more absurd than the Dogecoin dog.

Why? Because, for nearly a century the dollar is not backed or moored to anything but the government’s hope that it will retain value and laws that prohibit you and I from using other vehicles as “legal tender”.

The data (and opinions) on this are seemingly endless and yet absolutely critical to understanding our monetary system and where crypto may or may not fit in.

Horseshoe Nails and The Isle of Yap

Many interesting historical facts point toward the reality that money and coinage has always been just as much about the abstract belief in the system, more than any particular “intrinsic” value.

On the Micronesian Isle of Yap there was a functioning monetary system based on huge stones. A New York Times article, published in 1971 described the curious system:

“Every piece has an owner, and everyone knows who the owner is. Even when the money changes hands, it usually stays put. Yapese stone money is the largest and heaviest “coin” in the world.

In earlier days, brave islanders paddled by canoe 300 miles across open ocean to Palau where they cut slices from huge stalactites and brought them back as money. The value depended on how many men were drowned bringing them back. Nowadays, value is usually determined by measurements. We heard various versions, ranging from $10 radial inch to $42 a foot.”

Another article explains that many “wealthy” home (hut) owners displayed their money by leaving it leaning against the front of the house, where all could see the prosperity.

And, as for the prevention of fraud and corruption in any monetary system? Could any be more corrupt than the one that led to credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities imploding and all the BS that nearly brought down the world’s banking system?

And that is not new either. In the 1800s traveling bank examiners journeyed throughout the US to check on the gold reserves claimed by various banks. More often than not, they found far less gold than was claimed (in today’s fractional banking system little attempt is made to reduce the leverage in the system).

A common, clever, trick to try to “leverage” what little gold was actually on hand was to pile gold coins and ingots on top of a bed of horseshoe nails, hoping that the examiner would weigh the entire concoction only, and never notice the bogus hidden attempt to bolster the weight.

Bitcoin’s system at least attempts to circumvent this typically human brand of fraud and corruption.

In the article “What is Cryptomining” on Techspot a chart was published to illustrate how Satoshi Nakamoto tried to solve the classic trust delimma with the proof of work mining system.

“For example, if Alice has $100 at the beginning of the day, she could promise Bob, Charlie, and David independently that she’d send them each $100 by the end of the day. While Alice could show them that she owns $100 and they’d all be content and agree to the transaction, Alice only has $100. Thus, if at the end of the day, the public ledger (which once finalized is set in stone, so to speak) includes 3 transactions initiated by Alice for $100, the system would be broken and no one would want to use it.

With a centralized system such as in modern day banks, there would exist a single ledger that can validate how much money a certain individual has, and thus it can guarantee that the customer cannot spend more than they own. When talking about a decentralized, peer-to-peer system, however, who’s there to stop a clever individual from spending their money multiple times quickly before getting caught?

To address this potential issue, crypto miners enter the playing field. Essentially, miners play the role of the decentralized banker, and will perform the required gruntwork to ensure that the system is functioning as expected without double-spending. In return for their work, they will be rewarded with some cryptocurrency.”

Buffet, Cuban, Musk & Munger

In clonclusion, Buffet, Munger and The Wall Street Journal may have knowledge and experience but they have also derived benefit from a system that favors those already holding capital, one that also has a tendency to crush those trying to build it.

So, it’s fairly obvious that they are “talking their book” and data mining to produce a self-congratulatory outcome, when they expound on all the reasons that they hate crypto (Munger even called it “disgusting”).

Recent Articles:

As for Musk and Cuban, what’ve they got to lose? At least they “get it”, at least they are open to the idea of a future that has crypto as a part of the financial system. But where will they stand if there is government resistance in a big way, and if attempts to stop the entire crypto movement or “de-fang” it in ways that make it less viable as a true alternative to the status quo? That, my friend, will be the 1000 BitCoin question.


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Elon Musk, Tesla & SpaceX income from Carbon Tax Credits, Bitcoin and Government Subsidies

Above: Photo collage / Forbes / Lynxotic

Odd facts that illustrate the world today where Elon Musk says BitCoin is “less dumb” than cash. He’s right. Cash also known a “fiat currency” is a piece of paper with a promise to pay on demand nothing in exchange when presented.

It does have a legal framework behind it, meaning you go to jail if you try to use your own version. There’s that.

The Tesla CEO said that investing in Bitcoin is a “less dumb form of liquidity than cash” after his company bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency.

“To be clear, I am not an investor, I am an engineer,” he said on Twitter. “I don’t even own any publicly traded stock besides Tesla.”

The idea that Tesla and other companies are having concerns over the stability of cash, and concerns over the effectively negative interest rates in the mean time is clear.

Bitcoin may not be a solution that will be permitted by the Government (think gold in 1934). But a reckoning is a-comin’ and it will get interesting.

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is a genius who is doing great things. Perhaps it is his genius for finance that is most underestimated, however, considering his funding success throughout the years.

Some stats:

Regulatory Credits, aka, Carbon Tax credits, as per CNN:

It’s a lucrative business for Tesla — bringing in $3.3 billion over the course of the last five years, nearly half of that in 2020 alone. The $1.6 billion in regulatory credits it received last year far outweighed Tesla’s net income of $721 million — meaning Tesla would have otherwise posted a net loss in 2020.

“Based on our calculations, we estimate that Tesla so far has made roughly $1 billion of profit [on Bitcoin holdings] over the last month…To put this in perspective, Tesla is on a trajectory to make more from its Bitcoin investments than profits from selling its EVs in all of 2020…” source: Wedbush’s analyst Dan Ives

SpaceX income in U.S. Gov contracts and subsidies:

LA times estimated that already by 2015 Various Musk led businesses took in over 4.9 billion in government income:

“Tesla Motors Inc., SolarCity Corp. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, together have benefited from an estimated $4.9 billion in government support, according to data compiled by The Times. The figure underscores a common theme running through his emerging empire: a public-private financing model underpinning long-shot start-ups.” – LA Times

More recently in 2020 in Forbes:

“The research note titled SpaceX: Raising Valuation Scenarios Following Key Developments, listed the company’s recent $1.9 billion funding round and the “continued momentum in winning government contracts” (mainly from NASA and the U.S Department of Defense) as key reasons for its revision of SpaceX’s value. The note doesn’t bother to mention important financial details like SpaceX’s current revenue or estimated revenue for 2020 or even 2021. Or whether SpaceX is profitable or not.”


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