Using Aircraft Subsidies as Pretense to Hit Autos, Cheese, Whisky and More…
Coming on the heels of a “surprise” temporary reduction in trade tensions with China, the list of affected goods in the tariff threat also includes 89 items, such as, olives, ham, coffee, wine, some seafood and metals.
Although the prospect of a new major front in the global trade war is one to be wary of, Trump is beginning to show his hand: in using threats and then trying to milk the negotiating phase, for a potential stock market boost which is then attributed to reductions in tension. Perfect example at hand is the one that boosted the markets yesterday after the meetings with President Xi Jinping around the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan.
Never mind that, as we reported on May 23rd, it was obvious that he (and Xi) would use the date-certain G20 to claim a temporary “victory” and try and boost stature (and the Markets) with a removal (that could also be temporary) of the additional $350 billion, previously scheduled to be levied.
May 23th, 2019: In a possible set up for both to appear to “rescue” their respective countries from this toddler-made crisis, a potential meeting at the G20 Japan summit, set to begin on June 28th, has been mentioned by the Trump administration.
Next Phase? European Front to Trade War
In May, 2018, Donald “Trade wars are good” Trump’s 25% tariffs on European steel and 10% on aluminum took effect. The European response was to impose steel import limits.
Behind it all, purportedly, are the aircraft subsidies given to Boeing and Airbus, respectively. Each of the two massive aircraft manufacturers received subsidies in the USD billions, according to the WTO.
In Trump’s about-face at the G20, he stated that the China negotiations are “right back on track”, although this, along with the original escalation that was an obvious ploy, can change at any time again, in a Queens heartbeat. Details of any progress on the agreement for Beijing to initiate economic reforms demanded by the US administration are currently unknown.
While Trump’s obsession with the stock market may serve him now, with many US indices at or near all time highs, if and when a dip occurs, especially coming in the ramp up into the 2020 elections, his tune will have to change in a hurry.
“Stocks Cap Best First Half Since 1997” @WSJ Our Country is doing great!
If the market does take a dive, look for him to find a scapegoat, or god forbid, start a war, not just a trade war, in order to distract from the suddenly unfavorable reflection on him. Crowing about stock market levels has traditionally not been a Presidential habit, for good reason, as, factually, bear markets always follow bull markets, sooner or later. Right now, it’s just a question of when. Trade wars will be an obvious explanation for any significant downturn, and that will undoubtedly be like the chickens coming home to roost, at long last.
In “the most challenging mission to date“, SpaceX and Elon Musk successfully launched the Falcon Heavy into orbit with 24 satellites onboard. Below we have embedded the SpaceX livestream link, which went live at 2:30am EDT, June 25th.
There are quite a few unique facts that make this launch special. It is the third flight for the Falcon Heavy, the first ever to take place at night, which creates a more dramatic viewing experience, and it is the first time that previously used side boosters will be redeployed. The two side boosters being used were flown previously, in April 2019, on the Arabsat-6A mission. And on top of all that, as if it was not enough, the 24 payloads are significant as well.
For example: the Planetary Society’s LightSail 2 will be onboard. A prototype of a popular sci-fi concept – a solar sail to be used for propulsion in space, this is the second iteration of the LightSail to be launched, both created by the Planetary Society.
“It’s really a romantic notion that has tremendous practical applications”
― Bill Nye, CEO of Planetary Society
This version, with a span of approximately 344 square feet and which had a pricetag of seven million dollars to build, will attempt to demonstrate that, using a LightSail, a spacecraft can accelerate and increase it’s distance from earth while in orbit. A successful test of the LightSail would begin to prove or discourage the possibility of using sails for interstellar travel.
Center core engine shutdown and stage separation confirmed. Second stage engine burn underway pic.twitter.com/wrn5uMmG0L
In addition to this “Romantic” aspect of the mission, primarily this is a huge challenge for SpaceX, Musk and the Falcon Heavy,indeed, Musk, in a tweet, referred to it as …“our most difficult launch ever“. The STP-2 mission will launch 24 various spacecraft (satellites) into orbit, including the LightSail. It will be, assuming successful, more importantly, a step towards proving the Falcon Heavy’s ability to employ and reuse the side boosters described above, a first, and to observe the performance of it’s multi-burn profile for the rocket’s upper stage. In a quote from the dedicated STP-2 website: “In addition, SMC will use this mission as a pathfinder for the development of mission assurance policies and procedures related to the reuse of launch vehicle boosters.”
Teeth or not in Inquiry? Jawboning or action for Targeted Tech?…
Commenting on the antitrust review announced by the Justice Department on Tuesday, in an interview on CNBC, Mnuchin said that “it is good that the attorney general is going to look into this”.
Also saying that Amazon has “limited competition”, “hurt small businesses”, and that it was “absolutely right” for the Attorney General to look into “these issues”.
Amazon "has destroyed the retail industry across the United States," says Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. "It's absolutely right the Attorney General is looking into" anti-trust issues. pic.twitter.com/z5Mhc96xMa
On Tuesday, the Justice Department announced via press release that it would initiate a review to determine if major online platforms had “reduced competition, stifled innovation or otherwise harmed consumers”.
”The Department of Justice announced today that the Department’s Antitrust Division is reviewing whether and how market-leading online platforms have achieved market power and are engaging in practices that have reduced competition, stifled innovation, or otherwise harmed consumers.”
Department of Justice Release from Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Interestingly, the idea of some kind of antitrust action against Amazon, Google or Facebook is one that is gaining traction among Republicans and Democrats alike. Senator Elizabeth Warren in particular has often spoken of the need for intervention.
Each of the “market-leading online platforms” have built-in defenses against traditional antitrust actions, which have traditionally looked for dominant companies where consumer prices were directly impacted by use of monopoly profits (such as in United States v. AT&T and later, v. Microsoft).
In the case of Facebook and Google, profits are hidden behind “free” products and services which allow the companies to claim that no harm comes to consumers as a result of their power. Naturally, the idea that the products and services come without cost is losing credibility in light of the many scandals and instances of harm, monetary or otherwise.
Kindergarten Colors and “Consumer Obsession” while Evil Lurks Beneath…
In the case of Amazon, it is even more complex, since, as a company famous for enormous losses rather than profit, all while using various loss leader strategies to prove that it is “consumer obsessed” and not a monopoly at all.
Indeed, Amazon’s response to the Justice Department’s press release was, through a spokesman, that Amazon accounts for “less than 4% of US retail sales” and that “small and medium-sized businesses are thriving with Amazon”. Not mentioned was the dominant 50% share of the online sales market.
By comparison the second largest online sales channel, eBay, for 2019 is estimated to reach 6.1%, while Walmart’s online platform has an approximate 4.6% share.
Rarely has the media been able (or willing) to unravel the deeply complex history of Amazon’s strategies – which can be traced all the way back to the incredibly favorable pricing of it’s stock during the dot.com bubble boom and it’s “stealth” transformation from “The World’s Largest Bookstore” into “The Everything Store” over a ten year period.
The closest definition for its business behavior is as a “monopsony”, which can be defined as holding a monopoly over suppliers or labor, not consumers.
And this is where the “hurt small businesses” comes in. Any small retailer wishing to survive, let alone make a profit, must have online sales in some form (ask Walmart if you doubt that online sales are a necessary requirement for a brick and mortar retail business in 2019) and the domination in that area – that is to say the control of the customers, by Amazon is so extreme that joining the Amazon Marketplace is the only option (other than trying to survive with 90% fewer online sales).
And the Marketplace is controlled with an iron fist by Amazon. For example, since around 2006 all communication between Amazon Marketplace sellers and their buyers is handled by an encrypted, anonymous messaging system designed to prevent sellers from obtaining any direct email addresses from buyers.
This amazingly elaborate system is a glaring indicator, hiding in plain sight, that Amazon views its “selling partners” as anything but.
Although third-party sellers accounted, for example, for 50% of paid units sold on Amazon in 2016, every customer was considered to belong 100% to Amazon and zero percent to the seller.
With fees that can total up to 50% (they use a complex exponential sliding scale which makes it impossible to quote any exact figure) the seller is doomed to have no brand value and no “good will” value as long as it agrees to cooperate on the platform. Not selling on Amazon, unless extremely well capitalized (such as a start-up with hundreds of millions of dollars), is a death sentence.
Naturally, the waters remain muddy, since examples of the precise opposite can be pointed to – if you are a manufacturer and your products are extremely cheap (you are probably in China) and you like to offer your margin to Jeff Bezos as “his opportunity” and, particularly if your products will harm an Amazon competitor that refuses to sell on Amazon, the red carpet will be laid at your feet.
3 Brands Take Over Earth, Almost No-one Notices
It’s odd, as an observer, to note that there is not a single “brand success story” that can be pointed to as having built their brand through the Amazon third-party Marketplace. Could this be more than a coincidence?
”What I am glad we never did and that we’ve avoided so far is being on Amazon”
Jen Rubio, co-founder and chief brand officer of Away
Take, for example, Away Luggage, who went from being a “direct to consumer” start-up founded in 2015 to recently reaching a valuation of over one billion dollars and who made it a point NEVER to sell on Amazon;
She added that a “deal breaker” was that Amazon does not share customer data with vendors.
”Just sticking to our guns and not going on the [Amazon] platform was important for us”
Jen Rubio, Away
In our own recent interview with a long time Amazon Marketplace seller, who insisted on not being named, “or my children’s lives would be in danger”, he stated that many more behaviors towards seller “partners” are anything but collegial.
One of many examples is the “co-mingling” policy. As with much of what goes on behind the scenes at Amazon, this is an opaque, complex concept where all products that reside in any Amazon warehouse (supplied by various sellers participating in the “Fulfillment by Amazon” program) are considered to be “co-mingled” once they arrive.
When an item is purchased from a particular seller any item from any supplier is “picked” and shipped to the buyer. If that item is somehow inferior or even counterfeit, the seller whose name is on the order is automatically blamed although there is no way to trace the item’s true origin.
Our anonymous interviewee stated that, in one case, he was put out of business and even sued as having sold a counterfeit item, even though all his inventory was purchased from the original authorized manufacturer, and he could prove it.
Why didn’t he fight the false and obviously bogus accusation? $50,000 to $100,000 in Legal fees and no chance of any remedy other than, perhaps, re-instatement with no guarantee that the same thing wouldn’t happen again 2 days later.
One could get the impression, surveying the various accounts from sellers, across many walks of life, that Amazon’s perspective is not only that it is unimportant what happens to a particular seller that runs into problems on its platform, but that the demise of any seller is a “win” and that harm to any seller is harm to a competitor, even if that entity is technically a “Marketplace Partner”.
If true, this is as disturbing as any “consumer harm” effected through higher prices, as the sellers, who are also consumers let’s not forget, are just as trapped in the platform’s private “hell” as any consumer who is forced to pay higher prices as a result of monopolistic behavior.
Stories like the one above are “out-there” by the thousands but, strangely, hard to find online. A search on Google (oh yes, one of the other companies being scrutinized by the Justice Department) for “Amazon harms sellers” would often, in the recent past, bring up nothing but links to Amazon itself and how it is harmed by “counterfeit sellers” as if all the problems on the platform are created by the “other guy”.
Interestingly, even that is beginning to change, and there are more and more articles by reputable outlets such as Forbes , The Verge and INC who are daring to take information publicly gathered, as in our case, often from anonymous sources fearing retribution, and report on it without fearing similar retribution to its own organization. It seems likely more such stories will be published in the coming days and months. And perhaps, as they say, one day, the chickens will come home to roost.
In “the most challenging mission to date“, SpaceX and Elon Musk are scheduled to launch the Falcon Heavy again tonight. Since there are some payloads on board from NASA they will be livestreaming the launch starting at 2am EDT. Below we have embedded the SpaceX livestream link, which goes live at 2:30am EDT, June 25th.
As of this writing, there is a 70% chance the conditions will be favorable for the attempt; if the launch does not take place today, the next window is scheduled for 11:30pm EDT, Tuesday, June 25th
There are quite a few unique facts that make this launch special. It is the third flight for the Falcon Heavy, the first ever to take place at night, which creates a more dramatic viewing experience, and it is the first time that previously used side boosters will be redeployed. The two side boosters being used were flown previously, in April 2019, on the Arabsat-6A mission. And on top of all that, as if it was not enough, the 24 payloads are significant as well.
For example: the Planetary Society’s LightSail 2 will be onboard. A prototype of a popular sci-fi concept – a solar sail to be used for propulsion in space, this is the second iteration of the LightSail to be launched, both created by the Planetary Society.
“It’s really a romantic notion that has tremendous practical applications”
― Bill Nye, CEO of Planetary Society
This version, with a span of approximately 344 square feet and which had a pricetag of seven million dollars to build, will attempt to demonstrate that, using a LightSail, a spacecraft can accelerate and increase it’s distance from earth while in orbit. A successful test of the LightSail would begin to prove or discourage the possibility of using sails for interstellar travel.
Targeting T-0 of 2:30 a.m. EDT for Falcon Heavy launch of STP-2; team completed additional ground system checkouts. Vehicle and payload continue to look good
In addition to this “Romantic” aspect of the mission, primarily this is a huge challenge for SpaceX, Musk and the Falcon Heavy,indeed, Musk, in a tweet, referred to it as …“our most difficult launch ever“. The STP-2 mission will launch 24 various spacecraft (satellites) into orbit, including the LightSail. It will be, assuming successful, more importantly, a step towards proving the Falcon Heavy’s ability to employ and reuse the side boosters described above, a first, and to observe the performance of it’s multi-burn profile for the rocket’s upper stage. In a quote from the dedicated STP-2 website: “In addition, SMC will use this mission as a pathfinder for the development of mission assurance policies and procedures related to the reuse of launch vehicle boosters.”
Isn’t it odd that everyone on the internet either seems to hate or love Elon Musk and Tesla? One theory behind why this may be the case, was put forth in a recent article by John Mayo-Smith published on Medium.com called Elon vs. The Alligators. In a nutshell, the article is a list, with a nice graphic in part II, of vested interests that would stand to lose from Tesla’s success and, conversely, benefit from its demise.
This Is Not A New Development and Elon is Not Alone
Fans of the 2006 documentary, “Who Killed The Electric Car” would be well aware of the “conspiracy” against the proliferation of electric cars. The rise of Tesla, by definition, signals the failure of those entrenched interests that previously banded together to try and stop the emergence of this essential technology in the transition away from deadly fossil fuels.
Musk and Tesla represent an initial sign that these kinds of cabals to suppress technological development may be losing their strangle-hold on our world. Meanwhile, overwhelmingly obvious facts, once seen as “conspiracy theories”, are beginning to be recognized for what they are: simple facts of history.
Take, for example, the video below “Why The US Has No High Speed Rail”, released on May 7th, 2019, by none other than that “underground, subversive organization” CNBC. This short documentary clip has already garnered more than 4.5 million views.
The video shows the highly evolved, generally safe, and amazingly comfortable high speed rail systems across the globe: China, Japan, France, Germany, India, Saudi Arabia and so on. And while more countries develop low emission, luxurious, high speed transport, the US still has no high speed rail.
Meanwhile, overwhelmingly obvious facts, once seen as “conspiracy theories”, are beginning to be recognized for what they are: simple facts of history.
The clip goes on to trace the history of the transportation infrastructure and show how it was dominated and controlled in the US by Big Oil, government road building subsidies and the Auto Industry. It follows the clear path of these forces, and how they systematically prevented any rise of non-automotive transportation.
As the Media Slowly Comes Around, the Dollars Still Twist the Story
Perhaps, even ten years ago, this video would have likely been systematically attacked, in the same way as previous stories, for daring to sing the virtues of highly efficient, low pollution transportation, and for the very same reasons.
Today, after a Sea change, it appears that it is not so easy to squelch access to information that lays out plain truths about the past. Information is no longer so easy to suppress. While we, as a species, face possible extinction from climate change / global warming, brought about at least partially by the precise “conspiracy” of corruption that is the reason the US still has no rail infrastructure, the need to face these kinds of facts is undeniable.
Could the large viewership, unchallenged, indicate that it is no longer possible to bully the citizenry into silence, simply by disparaging the source of information, be it journalistic or otherwise?
It doesn’t take an eagle eye to notice, that when it comes to auto fatalities, Tesla and Musk are held to a very different standard than any other car company. Doing any search of a general grouping of news reports pertaining to fatal auto collisions, instantly, a stark pattern emerges. Ford is not mentioned. Chevy? Nope. Neither is Toyota, or Nissan nor Chrysler or Subaru. Mercedes Benz? Never. This list could go on and on, but any casual observer can see the pattern.
Although there are almost 40,000 auto accident fatalities per year in the US, and a very tiny fraction of those involve any electric car, nevertheless, the name Tesla comes up again and again, as the headline of stories about car crashes, with or without fatalities.
Titles like: “5 killed on way to Funeral” or “His 6th DUI Proved Fatal” are common. But it appears that any crash, of any kind, that involves a Tesla is “news”. This is but one of endless examples that could be cited, and corroborated, showing a pattern of negative stories aimed at one car company above all others. Coincidence?
The Story of Suppression of Design Innovation, Particularly when that Innovation Threatens the Status Quo is, Unfortunately, a Long One
A little known episode in this long history is that of Buckminster Fuller’s Dymaxion car. Featured prominently at the 1933-34 World’s Fair in Chicago, it had an amazing fuel efficiency, with approximately 30 mpg, and at 20ft in length, could transport 8-11 passengers at up to 70 mph.
However, after a local Chicago politician (Chicago South Park Commissioner) ran his own vehicle into the first prototype, killing the driver of the Dymaxion, the whole episode was used, in bogus press reports, to bury not only public interest in the car itself, but any chance of the advances in gas milage and overall efficiency that it represented. Gas mileage in the 30 mpg range would then be delayed for decades.
Photo Credit / Medium.com
Headlines in New York and Chicago read: “Freak car rolls over – killing famous driver – injuring international passengers“. In a subsequent investigation the Dymaxion was cleared of any fault, and the politician and his car were found to have been illegally removed from the scene before any reporters arrived. To this day, the average fuel economy in the US is less than 30 MPG. Even after over 80 years, articles can still be found that smear the history of the car with lies and baseless inferences, the same ones propagated in 1933.
A Trillion Gallons of Gasoline Wasted by Intentionally Inefficient Cars
If suppression of inventions that could have reduced carbon emissions, the same polluting substances that, eventually, could destroy the earth, is not pure evil, it’s hard to say what is. And yet, those same forces and corrupt powers remain with us today. “Tump Loves Coal“.
It would be interesting to speculate why 4.5 million would want to know the answer to the question: “Why the US Has No High Speed Rail”. And what about the “Alligators” that are out to get Tesla and Elon Musk? Are they going to succeed? Or will 400 million decide that the alligator’s time, like the dinosaurs they resemble, is finally over.
(editor’s note: this is the opening salvo in our new :]FuturePast[: series: a look at the past through the eyes of future generations, re-immersion in events and feelings of other times and other worlds.)
George Orwell, author of “1984” – Montage / Lynxotic / Medium
Setting the Stage: 1983
It’s 1983. Cable TV is in it’s infancy. The Macintosh is still barely a glint in Steve Jobs’ eye. MTV is one-and-a-half years into it’s lifespan. FM Radio is the well established “4k of audio” and signals are received on home stereo systems (and in cars)…
Video of the original MTV countdown to launch from 1981. NASA public domain footage was used, partially for budgetary considerations…
A music video is in heavy rotation on the known but not yet omnipresent 24 hour “video jukebox”. Four odd scruffy characters buried under overcoats ride on horseback through a barren winter landscape as if on some 19th century scouting mission in a Scandinavian war. This is U2 1983, still not well known in the USA. That will change, as will so much else in the next 18 Months.
https://youtu.be/_LpIuPbUKvM
The clip played heavily on MTV in January, 1983 – U2: New Year’s Day
MTV began, in essence, as a way to produce low budget content, “promo videos clips”, paid for by record labels, and broadcast them to create the first ever TV-Radio fusion station.
In keeping with the FM Radio vibe, VJ’s like Nina Blackwell, Mark Goodman and Martha Quinn would introduce each clip, radio style, and each came mainly with a Radio-DJ background and experience.
Although the station was primarily oriented towards Hard Rock initially, which was also an FM Radio staple, things began to change drastically in 1983. For example, the video for Michael Jackson’s “Billie Jean”, already a radio hit since its release in January, was also added into heavy rotation in late March 1983 on MTV.
Followed by “Beat It” which conveniently (for MTV audiences) featured a guitar solo from Eddie Van Halen, and the crossover into a broader music mix began.
“Every Breath You Take” from The Police was also in heavy rotation in 1983 leading the commercial wing of the post punk “New Wave”.
Prince’s “Little Red Corvette” along with videos from Eddy Grant (“Electric Avenue”), Donna Summer (“She Works Hard For The Money”) and Herbie Hancock (“Rock-it”) solidified the initial transition to a more inclusive music / video mix:
1984
By the beginning of 1984 MTV had already achieved a status of major music industry influence toward making and breaking the hits. Among the general public the station’s output was consumed almost as a first “National Radio Station” for the USA. A radio station that just happened to broadcast from your cable TV and included video clips along with the tracks.
More often than not, going to a party at that time meant MTV blasting at high volume from a stereo system (cleverly attached to the cable box’s output) with the videos unwatched somewhere on a connected TV. Although flat screens were still a distant future dream, projection TV could increase the screen size (though not the resolution) of the signal.
FM Radio playlists mirrored that of MTV and vice versa. From the peak in 1984 MTV maintained a video clip heavy playlist until 1995 when videos were gradually pushed out by “reality shows” and other programming.
After the success, in both unit sales and radio / MTV airplay, of Prince’s LP “1999”, released on October 27, 1982, his next project would fully integrate video and film with his songs and performances.
Price was about to explode onto the world stage in 1984. In collaboration with Albert Magnoli (director for the feature film “Purple Rain”), and even taking directing credits himself for his “When Doves Cry” video, a barrage of both traditional radio hits, a feature film and multiple music video promos were released in well timed succession.
At the peak in the summer of 1984, price had the #1 Movie (“Purple Rain”), #1 Single, (“When Doves Cry”) and #1 LP, (“Purple Rain”), simultaneously. A feat that no one has replicated before or since. His income that year was rumored to be in the fifty million dollar range.
By the end of 1984 three twenty-six year olds, Madonna, Prince and Michael Jackson had established themselves at the top of pop, in large part due to MTV exposure and hit videos.
Coming in the next :]FuturePast[: installment: On January 22nd, 1984 this little TV commercial was shown at Super Bowl XVIII, announcing an odd little machine with big ambitions:
Ace Time-lapse Photographer Capturing a Beautiful World
Here at Lynxotic we have been following Michael Shainblum and continue to be astounded at his incredible prowess in capturing beauty all around the world. Time-lapses like these are our favorites but he also has world-class stills that can be viewed (and purchased) at http://www.shainblumphoto.com
Above: Another example of amazing location shots by M.S.
ABOVE: Logic Pro X 10.4.5 shown onstage at WWDC 2019 running 2,000 audio and software instrument tracks on the new Mac Pro.
Logic Pro X, Apple’s high end music production software, now has more under the hood, particularly when used with the new Mac Pro, which will be available in the Fall. Announced at WWDC 2019, this update is all that was promised and shown in the demo (see video above).
Particularly interesting for future Mac Pro users, the new Logic Pro X supports up to fifty-six processing threads. Up to five times the number of real-time plug-ins will be supported when using the new mac pro with this new Logic Pro version, as compared with the previous Mac Pro (trash can) version. This will enable smooth operation even within the most challenging production situations.
With support for up to one thousand audio tracks and one thousand software instrument tracks, which adds up to more than four times the number of tracks available, as needed.
Additionally, the new version supports one thousand Aux channel strips, one thousand external midi tracks and up to twelve sends per strip.
“As someone who uses Logic for everything I create musically, I got a huge kick seeing all the performance tweaks coming in Logic Pro X 10.4.5. And the expandability of the new Mac Pro will give it longevity and a home in my studio for a long time to come.”
— Oak Felder, producer for Demi Lovato, Drake, Alicia Keys and Rihanna
While many music and sound producers until now have opted to use the Apple’s free GarageBand app, essentially a stripped down version of Logic Pro X, with these new features ( a free upgrade for current Logic Pro X users) the relatively low price tag may begin to entice a larger percentage to go for the upper tier software.
Naturally, for the top pro clientele for whom cost is less relevant, the combination of the new Mac Pro and this upgraded version of Logic Pro X may be more competitive in a market where other similar products such as Avid Pro Tools and Abelton Live remain very popular.
A t WWDC, alongside updates to Logic Pro X, Apple announced macOS Catalina, iOS13 and iPadOS all expected to be released in time for the availability of the Mac Pro in the Fall.
Other Apple software, such as Final Cut Pro should see big updates by that time as well.
Also announced at WWDC, large creative software companies such as Adobe, BlackMagic and others pledged their support for the Mac Pro and detailed plans for major updates intended to take full advantage of the additional power and possibilities.
“Logic is my primary creative tool for composing music, playing a key role in creating the scores for ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse’ and ‘The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance’… I’m really excited to see the increased performance of Logic Pro X 10.4.5 along with the power, expandability and configurability of the new Mac Pro — together they will help me work even faster and let me focus more on being creative.”
— Daniel Pemberton, composer for “Black Mirror,” “Yesterday” and “Ocean’s 8”
Logic Pro X 10.4.5 is available now in the Mac App Store as a free update for all current users. For new users, the price remains a modest $199.99, which should be an enticement for many.
Additional new features in Logic Pro X 10.4.5, include:
The loop browser can filter by loop type and allows drag and drop of multiple loops into your project simultaneously.
The redesigned DeEsser 2 plug-in provides more options to reduce sibilance on audio tracks.
MIDI beat clocks can be sent to individual ports, each with unique settings like timing offset and plug-in delay compensation.
At the end of the day, regardless of whether it’s on a MacBook Pro, a Mac Pro or even an iMac, the improvements to Logix Pro X represent a welcome sight, showing that Apple is truly committed to pushing forward the tools, both hardware and software, that will enable creators across all classes and styles to do more than ever with less effort and cost.
Oddly fitting, it seems, to be writing this on the 75th anniversary of D-Day, and imagining a very different, yet strangely similar, world outcome at stake. As pundits and trolls debate prices and feature sets, something larger is happening just beyond the threshold of perception.
The superior ecosystem of integrated elements, conceived as a whole, is beginning to emerge after 35 years. And, as if rising from a fog, the outline of the way we will create and communicate via digital networks in the future, is getting clearer.
Beginning with a new Mac Pro featuring up to a 28-core, Xeon processor, and a new Pro Display XDR, a 32in, 6k Retina with a million to one contrast ratio and a billion colors, both announced along with macOS Catalina and iOS13, all due out in the Fall, there appears to be a pattern emerging.
“With overall improvements in connectivity coming with 5g, not to mention all the satellite systems being built, the trinity of hardware muscle, accelerated software evolution, and hi-speed networking will be the “one more thing” of the era to come”.
The real story is about the improvements in the creative and computational power coming together on three fronts:
“If you want to teach people a new way of thinking, don’t bother trying to teach them. Instead, give them a tool, the use of which will lead to new ways of thinking.”
― R. Buckminster Fuller
Powerful fast hardware (nobody is complaining about the speed and power of the new Mac Pro), extended functionality of software – whether embedded within macOS Catalina, or from third parties, and then, finally, the-up-and coming speed and low latency of 5G and satellite networks.
However, a fourth, and very important force, not to be forgotten, is user sophistication. Seldom mentioned, it is barely a ‘thing’, yet without this essential component, the adoption of new technologies and communication methods could not move forward.
The gradual evolution of user adoption and skill will always gradually follow where the tools lead. For example, the ‘Digital Hub‘ of 2001 was a mystery, at the time, to a public that had barely begun to adopt the digital camera, and yet is completely obvious in hindisght.There’s a battle here, but it’s not for the stock price, revenue targets or market share. It’s for hearts, minds and the fulfillment of a sacred vision of a young Steve Jobs. To build a set of tools, overtake the Condor and soar above the mundane.
This combination, the rapidly emerging four pillars, will be nothing short of a revelation for the ages, all at a time when Moore’s Law is said to be dead or at least dying. And I didn’t even mention AI or machine learning.
“What a computer is to me is, it’s the most remarkable tool that we’ve ever come up with, and it’s the equivalent of a bicycle for our minds.”
– Steve Jobs
“I think one of the things that really separates us from the high primates is that we’re tool builders. I read a study that measured the efficiency of locomotion for various species on the planet. The condor used the least energy to move a kilometer.
The rest of the quote above from Steve Jobs:
And, humans came in with a rather unimpressive showing, about a third of the way down the list. It was not too proud a showing for the crown of creation. So, that didn’t look so good. But, then somebody at Scientific American had the insight to test the efficiency of locomotion for a man on a bicycle.
And, a man on a bicycle, a human on a bicycle, blew the condor away, completely off the top of the charts.”
Mac Pro IMAGES:
[gdgallery_gallery id_gallery=”3″]
photos by Apple
THE SECOND WAVE STARTS WHEN THE FOUR PILLARS ARE COMPLETE
What shines through is the path that Apple has kept all throughout the years and into today. Steve’s continuing, guiding hand prevented the core value propositions and and underlying goals from changing. And hallelujah to that.
My understanding is that a great part, if not the greatest part, of that ethos, was that human creativity and communication are paramount. And that building tools, to enhance and engender those, are a scared quest, worthy of noble men and women.
Now, here we stand, in a world that cries out for, and is even in danger of perishing without, a new higher level of communication and creativity.
And the tools are arriving, hopefully in-time, so let us be thankful to Steve’s great legacy, to Apple’s perseverance, and now pull together – and get to work…
Pro Display XDR IMAGES
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photos by Apple
FROM WHENCE ALL WEALTH?
Much has been made of the high prices and perceived ‘lack of innovation‘ in this, most recent, stream of new products from Apple. One ‘Fair and Balanced’ news organization’s headline screamed that Apple was considered ‘criminal’ for charging $999 for a monitor stand.
Sometimes, information comes at us all so fast, our brains need some time to catch up to reality. T his year’s WWDC was a bit like that, an avalanche of updates and features, exploding from 90 foot screens.
“And whence will come the wealth with which we may undertake to lead world-man into his new and validly hopeful life? From the wealth of the minds of world-man — whence comes all wealth.”
– R. Buckminster Fuller
A thousand dollar stand? Horrors. 50k for the maxed out system, boo hoo. ‘You can buy a gaming PC for around the same as the stand’. So what?. Next we’ll see an article calculating that if you buy 10 Pro Display XDRs and 10 stands that’ll be over $60,000! And somebody groaned! Quel Scandale! Apple haters are still hating and if it bleeds, it leads. And missing the story like it was the the broad side of a barn.
As a species, Buckmintser Fuller probably also said, we have been on training wheels. Well, now they are coming off, and we will need every ounce of power we can get our hands on if we are going to innovate and communicate ourselves out the messes we’ve created in this world.
Are these the tools meant to help content creators contribute to Apple’s shift from primarily hardware profits to income from subscriptions and services? Yes.
They are also the tools to help creators, communicators and scientists to innovate and ideate our way out of a road to possible self-inflicted extinction. Oh, yea, there’s that.
So let’s stand up and cheer for the company that is trying, like Steve wanted, to give us the best tools. ‘Cause heroes are hard to find, these days. Hero companies? There’s only one, or maybe two.
Apple is leading the way with serious simultaneous improvements in 2 of the 3 pillars of the golden triangle: more muscular hardware such as the new Mac Pro and Pro Display XDR, shown here, and a new galaxy of capabilities that will grow out of iOS13 and macOS Catalina, both announced and showcased this week at WWDC.
Hiding behind the search for earth-shattering hardware improvements, the whole apple ecosystem, using a combination of incremental speed and power increases, coupled with major system software improvements, is the real emerging story to watch from this year’s WWDC
Before Mojave, the macOS version that began, in earnest, the process of integration with iOS apps and features, a simultaneous upgrade to iOS 13 and macOS 10.15 Catalina would have perhaps yielded a yawn.
With a new MacBook Pro featuring an 8-core, 9th generation chip, and a new iPod Touch with the Apple A10 processor and With a new Mac Pro likely to be announced this week, there appears to be a pattern emerging.
With iMacs upgraded in March and the Mac mini already last October, it seems the entire Apple inventory will be refreshed by the end of 2019.
The one missing piece to the puzzle could be software. And, as if on cue, WWDC this week is expected to drop news on a variety of projects, but perhaps the best will be the two system software upgrades for iOS and macOS.
‘ONE MORE THING’ SYNDROME?
Doesn’t it seem, at times, as if the magic of hardware advances and even inventions of previously non-existent technology were expected to be a “given”? Suddenly, the absence of astoundingly new devices, created from thin air, is treated almost as a failure.
Anyone who attended CES 2019 would have noticed that we are in an era of gradual, incremental change. Many decry the lack of “innovation” yet seem to miss where the real action is and, even more, where it likely will be.
Based on the various updates alluded to above, Apple has set the stage for a year of incremental hardware improvements.
The Mac Pro is expected to be a complete re-design, iPhones are always a mixed bag or upgraded with some new features. But what all of these share, is the dependence on, and ability to benefit from, improvements in system software and apps, both free from apple and at various cost from third parties.
THERE’S A REASON SYSTEM IS IN ECOSYSTEM
Quietly, almost imperceptibly, macOS has been improving in leaps and bounds. Mojave was the first version of macOS where many long evolving technologies began to ripen. One need only look at the iCloud saga to see an example. Born as “Mobile Me” almost 20 years ago (!!) only with the Mojave / iOS 12 partnership did it really begin to show its potential.
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photos by Apple
Naturally, the more machines and devices connected to the same iCloud account the more useful it is. But, in a small business setting, with a few computers, iPhones, and iPads, it really begins to shine and becomes more useful with each (free) upgrade.
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photos by Apple
A few items from the list of functioning features already present in the Mojave / iOS 12 iCloud system:
Synchronized Desktop and iCloud folders, accessible also on iOS
Synchronized and shared notes with virtually any content
Synchronized photos and videos across all devices
Synchronized passwords and usernames when using Safari on any device
AirDrop also between devices and machines in or out of the account
Hand-off between nearby machines and devices
Various app Sync and hand off features: Apple News, Books, GarageBand, Pages, Numbers, Keynote, Find Friends, and more
IS THAT ALL?
It’s not so much the length of the list but the way the depth of the functionality of each part of the software expands over time. Every function or app listed above was, admittedly, barely ready for prime-time when first released.
But, with each update, including the “minor” ones, the functionality increases and often new features are added. Sometimes one has to dig for them and other times they ‘just work’, only better.
The one caveat is that relatively ‘fast’ internet access on all devices at all times is mandatory. With overall improvements in connectivity coming with 5g, not to mention all the satellite systems being built, the triumvirate of hardware muscle, software sophistication and hi-speed networking will be the “one more thing” of the era to come.
Will it be sexy like the first photo-pinch on the first iPhone ? Perhaps not. But with layering software systems, S.a.a.S. for businesses and AI infusing more and more ‘everyday tasks’ (tasks that once required expansive hardware, software and a computer science degree) with a ‘wow’ factor as yet to be measured, the future might be sexier than you think.
HOW’S THAT FUTURE LOOKING AGAIN?
Apple is leading the way with serious simultaneous improvements in 2 of the 3 pillars of the golden triangle: more muscular hardware such as the new MacBook Pro and iPod Touch, shown here, and a new galaxy of capabilities that will grow out of iOS13 and macOS 10.15 Catalina, both announced and showcased this week at WWDC.
With all the amazing products and software updates unveiled at Apple’s WWDC 2019, you’d think the viral meme would be something related. You’d be wrong. The trending topic for the first several days was… the monitor stand.
More specifically, the price of the monitor stand. Before you get really confused, it’s more the fact that the price was quoted separately, not a usual thing in general for monitor pricing. But this is no usual monitor.
As the name implies: The Pro Display XDR is meant for professional use. Hence the fairly hefty 5k price tag. So far, no big deal, right? Had Apple just announced a professional monitor, comparable in specs to pro monitors costing upwards of forty thousand dollars for 6k$, we’d probably have seen articles lauding them for creating thirty-four thousand in “savings”.
Further, if they had announced that the $6,000 monitor could be purchased “sans stand” for only 5k$, again, it’s all good. Instead, it was accidentally implied that the average-joe (who wants to buy a professional stand) would have to pay 5k$ for the screen and then another 1k$ for the “optional” stand.
Once this was announced scribes and haters all across the land began to decry the injustice to the world that this “arrogant” company would have the nerve to charge “as much as an iPhone XS”for nothing but a chunk of metal.
The race was on to compile the most outrageous comparisons: “you can buy an entire gaming PC for the price!”, wrote one, “it’s everything wrong with Apple today“, screamed another. After many such articles, each more ridiculous than the last, the “grown ups” began to chime in.
Digital Deflation is a Tricky Business
Finally, it was pointed out that professional video or film editing businesses, the folks for whom this stand was designed and priced, tend to have studio edit bays custom built for the purpose of high end editing, processing and color correcting, among other professional activities.
These bays, generally designed by a high tech professional architect, who costs himself, many times the “outrageous” $999, and monitor screens (you know, those forty thousand dollar ones mentioned by apple in the presentation), are generally wall mounted or set up on proprietary house-owned stands that go for far more than $999. The bays also have professional lighting design (to prevent visual inaccuracies when evaluating high end content), and, more often than not, really cool (read: expensive), furniture.
The plot thickens…
So, wait, what was really announced is that those same pros described above could opt-out of a monitor stand they do not need and save the much whined about $999? You don’t say. How nice those Apple folks are. So thoughtful. Trying to help rich folks avoid paying $999 for a stand that will end up in a storage room.
Why so misunderstood then, if this is all so obvious? Digital Deflation. Yes, that nasty sounding trend that has changed the world around us for more than 25 years.
History of cost reduction to zero dollars
To make sense of this hilarious tale, it seems, we have to first go back. Waaaay Baaack. All the way to around 1996. At that time there was no 8k video to edit, let alone multiple streams of said 8k. Nevertheless, a professional workstation, absolutely necessary at the time to do any non-linear editing or EFX, would set you back around $100,000+. And those monitors? They’d likely be CRT and still cost 50k or some ungodly number.
Many of the processes that were routinely required in editing, color correcting and EFX generation could not be achieved on any computer or software alone. Everything had hardware add-ons, tally up another 50k here and 50k there.
So, once again, why the huge misunderstanding?
Fast forward to 2019. Your iPhone can shoot excellent 4k video anywhere, anytime, since it’s already in your pocket. Cost: zero additional dollars after owning the phone.
Add to that software, if you are on a budget you can forego the daunting challenge of coughing up a couple of hundred dollars to buy Final Cut Pro (there’s that pesky “Pro” again in the name), and go with Blackmagic Design’s “DaVinci Resolve” software, which happens to include excellent non-linear editing, EFX generation and management, color correction and much more. Price tag? For the functioning entry level version, zero dollars. For added professional functionality, a few hundred dollars.
Bottom line, if you already have an iPhone and some kind of Mac, zero dollars.
Tricky Business, Indeed
Here’s where it really gets crazy. Apple, and other tech companies, have, in essence, engendered this deflation by reducing the costs of everything needed for digital media creation, at a higher and higher level to, practically, zero$.
Great, right? Well, not entirely. It seems that when the cost of production nears zero, the monetization of the fruits of creation head south even faster. Translation? It’s damn hard to get paid if you are a freelancer producing and editing digital media products. Only the highest level creators (Hollywood Heavyweights, top of the charts, you get the idea) can garner much of anything, and, of course, they can afford many times that $999 for fruit toppings at breakfast.
Everyone else (a.k.a. “the rest of us”) live in side-hustle hell. Hence the moans, groans, and whining over the “dream” of having $999 to spare for a monitor stand.
So, to re-cap, the same people who were “gifted” by massive advances in technical capabilities spearheaded by apple, to the point where millions of dollars of production overhead for hardware was reduced to almost zero, were also victims of an unemployment epidemic, unleashed by the “barriers to entry” for their chosen profession being reduced to… wait for it… zero.
And, yea, by the way, all this applies double to writers working for digital media outlets. So let the angst flow freely next time an arrogant monolithic company has the audacity to release a pro product at a pro price. I feel ya, Dog, I really do.
First Concrete Step Towards Transport Tunnel Proliferation
Despite receiving some pushback from two board members of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, The Boring Company has nevertheless secured a contract to build a transport tunnel under the Las Vegas Convention Center campus.
The project, which was approved following a vote by the board on Wednesday, will be comprised of two tunnels that are designed to transport passengers from the Convention Center’s New Exhibit Hall to the existing North/Central Hall. A third, pedestrian tunnel, may also be included in the project.
The Boring Company’s Las Vegas tunnel is expected to be completed in time for the 2021 Consumer Electronics Show, which will be held in January, as usual. Elon Musk has expressed his optimism at the project’s potential completion date, stating on Twitter that the transport tunnel could be operational by the end of 2019.
Looking forward to building a Boring Company tunnel in Vegas. Assuming to be operational by end of year! https://t.co/cSSO4SJ140
This is a very aggressive timetable, though the relatively short length of the tunnel, at less than one mile, could improve the Boring Company’s chances at completing the project within Musk’s target timeframe.
The Las Vegas transport tunnel will utilize a Loop System, which is comprised of autonomous electric vehicles (AEV) that can carry passengers from one point to another. The Boring Company notes that standard AEVs are Tesla Model X and Model 3 vehicles, though high-occupancy AEVs are also under development.
Photo / The Boring Company
The latter utilizes a modified Model X chassis that is capable of transporting up to 16 passengers with both sitting and standing room. Provided that The Boring Company could complete the transport tunnel without delays, test runs in the system could begin as early as November 2020, according to the project’s public contract.
Photo / The Boring Company
In its vote on Wednesday, the LVCA granted a $48.6 million contract to the tunneling startup, though the total project is estimated to cost around $52.5 million. Two-thirds of the total funding for the project will not be released to the tunneling startup until the transport tunnel is complete. Previous reports also hinted that if the Boring Company is unable to receive a certificate of occupancy for the transport tunnel, the LVCA will get back its entire investment.
“Future expansions to augment LVCC Loop can include service extensions to McCarran International Airport, hotels on the Las Vegas Strip, downtown Las Vegas, Las Vegas Stadium, and, in the long term, Los Angeles”
— The Boring Company (@boringcompany) May 24, 2019
While the Boring Company was able to secure the Las Vegas contract, the tunneling startup’s proposal still met some pushback from two board members of the LVCA. In recent weeks, board members Michele Fiore and Carolyn Goodman argued against the Boring Company’s proposal, citing the startup’s inexperience. The two board members suggested that the LVCA adopt the proposal of Austria-based Doppelmayr Garaventa Group instead, which would create an above-ground transit system that at a projected cost of around $215 million to complete.
Similar to the business acumen and negotiating prowess he exhibited while losing more than any other U.S. citizen during his “glory days” as a real-estate mogul, Trump is going for broke in the China trade war. Trump lost over a billion dollars between 1985 and 1994, even while writing a book on how to be a genius negotiator.
The latest phase in the Trump trade war started with a typical tweet-storm last Sunday. On the following Tuesday (May 7th) China responded, in Dirty Harry fashion, saying “Don’t even think about it” and “We will not back down”.
China slaps back with $60 Billion in Tariffs on U.S. products to begin on June 1
The list of products is set to contain 5-25% tariffs on approximately five thousand items that will likely include textiles, chemicals, agricultural products and metals. In a hint that this is only the beginning China added that they “will never surrender”, apparently, just for good measure.
In characteristic fashion, Trump tweeted various random comments interlaced with threats and simplistic advice on how U.S. consumers can avoid being affected by the tariffs, claiming that his war is “very good for USA!”.
There is no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs, which take effect on China today. This has been proven recently when only 4 points were paid by the U.S., 21 points by China because China subsidizes product to such a large degree. Also, the Tariffs can be…..
..There will be nobody left in China to do business with. Very bad for China, very good for USA! But China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job). Therefore, China should not retaliate-will only get worse!
As reported in Esquire there’s a distinct possibility that Trump is out to lunch on trade theory (see billion dollars lost in his personal business deals above for a hint).
We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries.
– Trump in recent tweet
While this may sound peachy, his own advisor was forced to clarify:
“Yes, I don’t disagree with that,” said Larry Kudlow, the head of the president’s National Economic Council, when Chris Wallace, host of “Fox News Sunday,” asked him, “It’s U.S. businesses and U.S. consumers who pay, correct?” Kudlow added, “Both sides will pay”
– Lawrence Kudlow, head of the president’s National Economic Council, from a Fox News interview
Possible brinksmanship on display as Trump and Xi Jinping plan potential meet at Japan Summit
In a possible set up for both to appear to “rescue” their respective countries from this toddler-made crisis, a potential meeting at the G20 Japan summit, set to begin on June 28th, has been mentioned by the Trump administration.
A deal could be announced during the summit, or even before. However, it is unlikely that this will be much more than jawboning, at least initially, and meant to save face and calm markets while the war, and the Tariffs continue. In the meantime, watch for a possible European entrance into the fray to be next.
Blast off was about 10:30 p.m. EDT, and represents a huge step forward for Elon Musk’s space plans and the global satellite internet network SpaceX is building
After several previous attempts the mighty Falcon 9 achieved launch in spectacular fashion on Thursday night (EDT).
Falcon 9's first stage has landed on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship – the third launch and landing of a booster that’s flown for a third time! pic.twitter.com/CzEDao3tFa
Above: the link to the live streaming broadcast for tonight’s window, starting at 10:30PM EST
On Tuesday, May 14th, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket fulfilled its static fire test, a wet dress rehearsal launch, where the engines fire at full thrust. The test was successful and included all cargo (satellites) on board, which appears to indicate a full launch is now ready to go forward. Musk was initially planning for Wednesday May 15th and then Thursday, May 16th, but is now aiming for tonight starting at 10:30PM EST.
Musk predicts that it will take at least 6 launches (360 more satellites) for “minor coverage” and then another 6 (total of 720 satellites) for “moderate coverage”. Musk is a realist and does predict that things will inevitably go wrong during the process. Tuesday’s static fire success and soon, a successful launch, can be huge steps towards bigger things to come.
Above: the link to the live streaming broadcast for Thursday May 23rd
On Tuesday, May 14th, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket fulfilled its static fire test, a wet dress rehearsal launch, where the engines fire at full thrust. The test was successful and included all cargo (satellites) on board, which appears to indicate a full launch is now ready to go forward. Musk was initially planning for late Wednesday, but is now aiming for Thursday, May 23rd.
Now targeting May 23 for launch of Starlink from Pad 40 in Florida
Standing down to update satellite software and triple-check everything again. Always want to do everything we can on the ground to maximize mission success, next launch opportunity in about a week.
Musk predicts that it will take at least 6 launches (360 more satellites) for “minor coverage” and then another 6 (total of 720 satellites) for “moderate coverage”. Musk is a realist and does predict that things will inevitably go wrong during the process. Tuesday’s static fire success and soon, a successful launch, can be huge steps towards bigger things to come.
Dow swoons again on news; down 400 points in early trading
The South China Morning Post reported today that Chinese State Media has responded to the threats in Trump’s tweets from Sunday to raise Tariffs, as well as adding new tariffs on additional goods.
“Things that are unfavourable to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back. Do not even think about it.”
After first blocking media mentions or screen shots of Trump’s twitter threats early Monday, Beijing responded with defiance and even attempted a bit of theatrics, “Do Not Even Think About It” was the “Dirty Harry-esque” headline in the Hong Kong news outlet’s article cited above.
In spite of the heated rhetoric and brinkmanship from both sides, the Chinese Government still plans to send an envoy to the talks, although no time frame was specified.
From the U.S. perspective, according to the Trump administration, the talks are progressing “too slowly” and a mechanism for holding China accountable to reduce intellectual property violations and open up its economy is as yet undefined.
The harsh stances on either side to date, however, do not rule out the possibility that both can claim “victory” after looking tough at home, after ultimately announcing some kind of agreement to end the tensions and the tariffs. While this may even be the likely outcome, the potential for higher tariff percentages and new levies on other goods (on both sides) are a serious possible reality going forward.
Quoting the ‘Peoples Daily’ from its WeChat public account: “Things that are unfavourable to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back. Do not even think about it.”
“Tariff-Man” talks tuff when traders expect cream puffs
Photo / Adobe Stock – Lynxotic
Nasdaq futures down over 2%
Futures began to tumble when Trump announced he would raise tariffs on $200 Billion in Chinese goods and soon add a levy on $325 billion more. In the largest drop in Futures since January, traders appear to be reacting to the expectation of a positive resolution to the trade tensions, only to be surprised by the escalation by Trump.
….of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!
Brinksmanship? Or will both sides make good on threats?
As reported by the Wall Street Journal, China may be pulling out of the talks, which only raises the stakes. It’s entirely possible that both sides are talking tough in an attempt to gain an advantage and claim victory, if and when the talks resume. A sudden positive, “unexpected” reversal on both sides would likely spur a knee jerk market rally, for example, so volatility in the markets appears to be likely for the week ahead.
Needless to say, a trade war escalation would be a serious event for both sides. Although China may feel the negative effects of such an all out Tariff avalanche first, the potential downside for the U.S.A. is not clear and would be by no means insignificant.
Photo / South China Morning Post
With both sides broadcasting extreme positions, on the other hand, the talks may well halt, which would “require” Trump to make good on his threats (in order to save face). Stay Tuned.
“I don’t consider “Bob”, at this stage, a career prosecutor”
– Attorney General William Barr
Attorney General calls published letter “Snitty” and refuses to acknowledge Mueller’s Reputation. When asked if he made a memorandum of his conversation he sheepishly replied “huh?” Before admitting after further questioning that “someone” had taken notes of the call.
“why should you have them?”
– Attorney General William Barr, when asked if congress could be allowed to have a copy of the notes from the call
Tech Titans Race to “Give” Internet to Off-The-Grid Populations Across the Globe –
Bezos, Branson, Zuckerberg, Musk, Google, Softbank, Airbus are all vying to own the sky. There are also few companies without the marquee star power in the mix.
Something must be driving the world’s wealthiest into a race against each other to be the first to provide satellite internet access to the poorest and least connected on earth.
It’s all about the Zettabytes
For one, the numbers are staggering: an estimated 4 billion “customers” are not yet connected worldwide. “Unserved” and “Underserved” are the buzzwords, with the majority residing in Africa, India, and parts of South America.
In case you’re not Zetta-aware, a Zettabyte is one trillion Gigabytes, which is the approximate total amount of yearly internet traffic as of 2016.
Expectations for 2020 are in the 2.3 Zettabyte neighborhood (2.3 trillion Gigabytes). To handle the load, provide for the unserved and get to 5G speeds (expected to be the new norm), a major change is needed.
Low Earth Orbit micro-satellite constellations are what’s next. Not to be confused with Geosynchronous, a.k.a. Geostationary, which are fraught with latency issues. Instead, a LEO mesh network constellation can potentially achieve latency at 20-30 milliseconds vs. the 700 milliseconds typical with Geosynchronous systems. Smaller, cheaper satellites that can be launched in bunches (up to 30 per launch) are all the rage.
Speed targets are above 1 Gigabits p.s. (download and upload) and, to takeover for malfunctioning units, spare satellites will be deployed. Network downtime can be reduced to less than 2 minutes per year through this method.
The idea of an ultra-fast internet beamed to the entire earth population within a decade is a mind-blowing concept.
The power in controlling such a network would also be so vast, it’s no wonder those already at the pinnacle are ready to fight each other for the privilege of setting it up. And, of course, to reap the rewards.
“…a discussion about the potentially scary thought of any of these titans owning even more of the world’s tech infrastructure will be on deck in the near future, so stay tuned”
With virtually all the planet’s heavy hitters on board, the race to supply internet worldwide via LEO micro-satellite constellations will likely be decided at the political and governmental level. As much as we’d all enjoy watching a capitalist death-match, being at the mercy of a monopoly larger than any in history? Less enjoyable.
With so much to unpack in the breakdown of who’s-who, a discussion about the potentially scary thought that any of these titans could own even more of the world’s tech infrastructure will be on deck in the near future, so stay tuned.
Microsoft’s Bill Gates and communications mogul Craig McCaw project Teledesic was an early attempt at satellite internet networks, but failed, in the late 90’s / early 00’s.
Now, however, stars appear to be aligned for at least one the the current crop of projects to succeed.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX intends to operate thousands of satellites with low orbiting efficiency. In 2018 the FCC approved a launch of 4,425 satellites (in March) and an additional 7518 (in November), bringing the total approved to 11,943. This group of satellites will comprise the initial Starlink internet constellation. A license application for 1 million earth-stations, to be used by customers, has already been submitted.
The first two Starlink satellites, Tintin A and Tintin B, were launched on February 22, 2018
In order to maintain the FCC’s conditional approval, SpaceX will have to launch at least 6,000 satellites by 2024.
Once that hurdle is crossed they could have 12,000 into space by 2025-2026.
And don’t forget Elon Musk already shot a Tesla Roadster in space via his Falcon Heavy rocket. It has twice the lift-capacity of a NASA Space-Shuttle and could be an ideal transport system for large satellite batches. The Falcon 9 would also be a good choice.
Perhaps SpaceX will get a boost since they avoided the list for possible break-up by the US government that was put forth by Senator Elizabeth Warren, AOC and others.
A betting man would think the satellite systems space race will be won by Elon Musk and SpaceX.
However, the game did appear to change recently when SpaceX’s former execs Rajeev Badyal and Mark Krebs joined Amazon’s “Project Kuiper’. (after allegedly being fired from SpaceX). Recently, in a tweet, Musk called Jeff Bezos a “copy cat” for jumping into the Satellite Internet fray. (note the emoji for the ‘cat’).
“CopyCat” Jeff Bezos has a substantial plan of his own. Project Kuiper is named after astronomer Gerard Kuiper. Kuiper was space theorist and visionary.
Some of his spot-on theories were:
Predicting that carbon dioxide would be found to be a major component to the atmosphere of Mars
That the rings of Saturn are composed of particles of ice
That the Moon’s surface would be “like crunchy snow” (well before Armstrong took his steps).
Bezos’ privately owned Blue Origin project should be a benefit in the new endeavor. Interestingly, Blue Origin is already in a separate, unrelated deal with TeleSat (see more below).
Project Kuiper is Amazon’s first attempt at housing their satellites in space to provide global broadband access. 784 satellites at 367 miles above us are planned along with 1,296 satellites at 379 miles upward and 1,156 satellites at an altitude of 391 miles
These satellites will offer the internet from Scotland through the south most tip of South America. Theoretically, this can cover 95 percent of the Earth’s population. The Earth’s population currently is around 7.7 billion people, half of which still need internet access.
Despite some recent public backlash, Amazon is still incredibly popular in the U.S. However, with so much competition from all sides, even the biggest beast may have an uphill climb.
OneWeb gets huge boost from “friends in high places”
Photo / OneWeb
OneWeb upped the ante on the non-geo stationary orbit concept (LEO), literally, with investments to date totaling $3.4 Billion , as of March.
In addition to AirBus, OneWeb is now also backed by Richard Branson, Coca-Cola and venture capital firm Softbank. Up to 5$ billion may be needed to get their 5G ready network up and running.
After inking the deal with AirBus, the first six satellites were built in France. Now, they are gearing up to continue in Florida. Oddly, the Florida facility is across the street (!) from Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin Factory.
The first six of the initial 648 were successfully launched on February 27. More Satellites are expected to be launched during the year.
Additional launches for 648 micro-satellites to operate at 750 miles in altitude are planned. The company hopes the constellation will be fully operational by 2021.
Eventually the total number of satellites could rise to 1,972 for which it has acquired priority spectrum license rights. Plans for an additional 2000 have been filed with US regulators.
Google Keeps Searching
Photo / Loon
Alphabet Inc (Google’s parent company) has Loon. Using balloons to take antennas into the stratosphere, a much larger coverage area can be reached vs. a terrestrial tower. (such as a cell tower)
In January a partnership was announced with TeleSat (also partnered recently with Blue Origins, as outlined above) to take the software systems developed for its balloons and apply them to an LEO micro-satellite constellation.
https://youtu.be/MiEZfRh-h-s
Telesat currently envisions between 292 and 512 satellites in orbit and initial commercial services are planned to commence by 2022.
In July 2018 Google announced that Loon along with Wing, both initially founded as “X moonshot projects“, would henceforth be full independent companies within the Alphabet Corporate Umbrella. In addition to the TeleSat project, Loon plans to partner with mobile carriers across the globe. An example of this is the current deal with Telekom Kenya, which Loon is helping to extend its coverage to remote areas of the country.
Facebook Pulls Out…All The Stops
Animation from Teledesic showing a complete satellite constellation with full coverage of the earth
Although perhaps founded with the best intentions, Facebook’s “FreeBasics” project somehow always appeared to involve tailoring its approach in order to serve its own interests.
After allowing only Facebook-sanctioned services and data to FreeBasics users it came with little surprise that a public backlash emerged.
In February of 2016, Free Basics was banned in India for unlawfully prioritizing certain sites over others. However, Free Basics is still up and running in over sixty countries. Facebook also still has a vast influence in Africa.
Facebook estimates that its efforts to increase internet connectivity worldwide, over 100 million new users are now online.
LeoSat: All Biz at the High End
Photo / Thales Alenia Space
Focusing on speed, full earth coverage, direct sat-to-sat optical links without the need for terrestrial stations, LeoSat is positioned to be a serious and unique entrant into the satellite wars.
Designed for large business and government customers, LeoSat already has over 1$ billion in pre-booked orders from enterprise level clients. In March, a new contract with Saudi Arabian communications firm SkyBand was announced.
Based in Washington D.C., LeoSat has set 2022 as its target date for between 78-108 satellites to reach orbit. As with some other competitors above, an initial launch of 2 satellites is planned for 2019.
Using its unique high throughput satellite system (HTS) an optical laser-based backbone will be implemented in space. The backbone will be comprised of 118 LEO satellites in an MPLS network, each with a direct laser based optical link to the others.
This will achieve a projected speed of 1.5 times current land-based fiber-optic networks at 1.6 to 5.2 Gigabits p.s., all without terrestrial touch-points in a globally interlinked constellation.
Without a hyper-famous heavy hitter, LeoSat is still not to be overlooked. More than just an a company with an Apt brand name, LeoSat has a solid list of accomplishments and a serious plan to compete in its chosen niche.
Google was fined 1.7 billion dollars (1.5 Billion Euros) for online advertising antitrust violations. This is the third fine from European authorities since 2017. The fines, along with those against other big tech firms, have established the European Union as the most consequential oversight body in policing internet tech firms that are seen as having too much power.
Europe is a leader in taking a stronger approach to reigning in firms such as Amazon, Facebook and Google (Alphabet). A broad consensus holds that these huge tech behemoths represent a danger to fair competition.
“Google has cemented its dominance in online search adverts and shielded itself from competitive pressure by imposing anticompetitive contractual restrictions on third-party websites, this is illegal under E.U. antitrust rules.”
Margrethe Vestager, Europe’s top antitrust watchdog
A variety of infractions have been committed by Google in the past couple years. They were fined for misusing their Android ownership to undercut rivals. Google was also fined for attaching an increased amount of text ads to third party companies who used the Google search bar.
The internet search leader bundled its ad platform within the third party custom search engines. This practice undercut Microsoft, Yahoo, and other digital advertising companies.
European authorities have been more aggressive with tech companies, demanding improved privacy, transparency, and even copyright regulations. Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager has fined Google over 3 billion dollars since 2017. Alphabet/Google owes a total of 8.2 Euros (9.3 billion dollars). Google hasn’t paid the fines yet, and plans to appeal. Google stock is up 17 percent in 2019.
In the U.S., Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democratic candidate for President in 2020 said that Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple should be broken up due to various antitrust issues.
Although Vice had only a modest showing at the box office (#6 on opening weekend and 40m as of January with a domestic-only-release) the film produced the second highest number of Oscar nominations at 8.
Christian Bale, with his otherworldly portrayal of GW’s Veep, appears to be a strong contender for Best Actor . Sam Rockwell gets the nod as Best Supporting Actor nominee for his work as our 43rd Prez., George W. Bush.
“…thank you to Satan for giving me inspiration on how to play this role”
Christian Bale, accepting his Golden Globes Award for Best Actor
In the A.V. Club December 2018 interview below, Bale shares his thoughts on Cheney, the man, and his experience of portraying a person who is neither “all villain” or “all saint”, noting that all humans display some of each of those qualities.
“…(Cheney)…..is a fascinatingly contradictory character, incredibly strong minded, absolutely refusing to apologize or to have any regrets.”
In the four-plus minute clip, Bale explains some of the techniques and methods he employed in order to transform into the extreme and unique personage that was Dick Cheney as seen in VICE. Thoughts on the current political climate, and more are also shared.
Known for his chameleon like transformations from an American Psycho, (as Patrick Bateman, lead character in the black comedy horror film from the year 2000) to comic book Super Hero (Batman) into eccentric introverted hedge fund genius (as Michael Burry in The Big Short), Bale is no stranger to extreme onscreen transformations. With the unrecognizable girth and “charisma free” personality created to play Cheney in VICE, however, it appears that the bar has been raised almost impossibly high. Oscar prediction: C.B. will win Best Actor Award on February 24th at the 91st Academy Awards.
