Category Archives: Business

Business, Crypto, Economics, Finance, Observation

Bitcoin and Crypto’s Crash is not the First, the Largest or the Last

Above: Photo by Michael Krahn on Unsplash with elements added by Lynxotic

Coming after a frenzied run-up the hand wringing is no surprise

I many ways it seems as if Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies appeared suddenly in 2021 out of the head of Zeus. Protean and fully formed, with billions and trillions in market caps, and all your sisters, brothers, cousins and even the Uber driver climbing aboard.

And the FOMO blog posts, where every hour an innocent reader is assaulted by a story, perhaps true, perhaps exaggerated and certainly foolhardy in retrospect, of an innocent putting their life savings into Dogecoin and suddenly having, theoretically, huge gains at their disposal.

Meanwhile, craggy faced, ancient stock market mavens would interject famous last words that now appear to be wise. However, all that notwithstanding, this week’s crash is nothing new or unexpected.

In reality, as can be seen from the graphic below, provided by Visual Capitalist, there have been so may crashes / corrections and doomsday prognostications since 2012 in Bitcoin that it seems like a miracle the there’s any thing such as Crypto at all.

There’s a reason it’s not dead and it’s in the DNA

The resiliency, far from a shock to those that have been around more than a fortnight, is kinda the point. When Satoshi Nakamoto built the system architecture of Bitcoin and since then inspired the over 8000 new crypto entities that have been developed, it was, just like the internet itself that was build to survive WWIII, supposed to be as indestructible as possible.

Like physical gold, which is considered have been adopted as a store of value partly due to its indestructibility and immutability (alchemy notwithstanding) the volatility and sometimes violent-seeming life story of Bitcoin is a necessary adjust to its role in finance, commerce and even individual monetary survival.

Not for the faint of heart, perhaps

While the mainstream and those forces opposed to the adoption or survival of Bitcoin and Crypto are out in force pointing to the “unsuitability” of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for any “legitimate” use as a trade or savings vehicle, the progress so far, in spite of the obvious fact that volatility has always been baked in to the situation, is an obvious refutation of that viewpoint.

Will the current drop in dollar values relative to Bitcoin end it’s popularity and strip it of the respect it has thusfrar earned among many? In a word, no. In essence what is happening is, as many have foretold, what happens often and repeatedly, the excess attention and dollars that were pumped into crypto by you brother, sister, cousin and Uber driver are now getting blown out, since those were more speculation and psychosis than any kind of vote for viability or permanency.

And, why not? Where was to concern, shock and hesitation by the masses when the prices seemed to only rise for weeks and even months across so many products and coins it was impossible to keep count? Why was to feeding frenzy and the mania-like piling on not ignored as an anomaly?

The herd does as the herd will do. Diamond hands and Paper hands will ebb and flow as long as the rivers flow to the sea and humans herd like buffalo. And, in all likelihood, dollars and euros and yen will be long forgotten when the last bitcoin is transferred to the final wallet in the sky.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Lynxotic does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Business, Crypto, Economics, Finance

Elon Musk is taking sides in the ‘True Battle’ between Crypto & Fiat

Video

Above:Photo Credit / Unsplash / Collage / Lynxotic

If you are stuck on the word ‘fiat’ this post can help you (everyone else too)

In a single, 14 word reply to a follower (@TheRealShifo) that asked “Yo Elon what do you think about the peeps who are angry at you because of crypto?” He gave a simple answer that is the often unmentioned, yet most important, question regarding crypto vs. fiat, government issued, currency such as the US dollar.

Looking around during the ongoing frenzy surrounding crypto and digital finance you’ll see countless ‘news” stories and blog posts comparing, or pretending to compare cryptocurrencies, especially the two biggest Bitcoin and Ethereum (as coin sometimes referred to as “Ether”) and they virtually always quote the “price” fluctuations of those coins as a certain number of dollars and cents.

Interestingly I have yet to see any of these “comparisons” use the reverse valuation method, such as, “the US dollar is currently worth .00002703 Bitcoin. Can you imagine everything using that as a standard – CNBC quoting stock prices in Bitcoin, your house is “worth” 32 Bitcoins (if you’re in California, for example).

The reason this comes off sounding strange and ridiculous is that all communication related to the US dollar, which has been a fiat currency since abandoning any “backing” (such as gold) and continuing on by decree (or fiat) of the government with no backing other than than decree, also carries a decree (tacit) not to undermine it in public.

So when Elon says:

“The true battle is between fiat & crypto. On balance, I support the latter.”

Simple and straightforward and yet intentionally shrouded in mystery

Musk is directly comparing crypto, generally, and fiat currencies around the world that “float” against each other. And by inference, doing so in terms of the difference between a fiat currency like the US Dollar and a crypto currency, like Bitcoin.

A fiat currency is money that is not backed by a physical commodity like gold, but instead backed by the government that issued it. Most modern currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, euro, pound and yen, are fiat money.

from Wikipedia

The term fiat derives from the Latin word fiat, meaning “let it be done” used in the sense of an order, decree or resolution.

— common Definition

The fact that Bitcoin was created as a digital alternative to fiat money stands at the forefront of that point. The fact that it was designed precisely to counter the drawbacks and dangers of a system based on fiat paper money (or digital ledgers of those paper dollars such as your bank balance or any method to keep track of how many “imaginary” paper dollars you “have”) is exactly the real issue at hand.

photo credit: twitter

It’s no secret that many attack those goals and intentions superficially and dismiss the entire discussion with a wave of the hand. They willfully use the complexity of the cryptographic solutions, at the heart of cryptocurrency, as a way to gloss over the real and substantive problems being targeted.

They prey on the ignorance of the majority to try and discount out of hand any value at all for the movement and the various products.

Opening up the door to this exact exchange and characterizing it as a “battle” in one fowl swoop clarifies and simplifies the real issues and the real reason for the existence, and according to many, including Elon Musk, the need for monetary “reform” or change via a shift toward crypto.

Opening up the door to this exact exchange and characterizing it as a “battle” in one fowl-swoop clarifies and simplifies the real issues and the real reason for the existence of, and the need for, monetary “reform” or change via a shift toward crypto.

D.L.

The “price” of Bitcoin or any other crypto currency on any given day has almost nothing whatsoever to do with that debate.

Speculation abounds but not just in Crypto

The “price” is a function of, mostly, speculation and scarcity, due, in the case of Bitcoin to the mining cap, or at least a perceived scarcity. And additionally the various perceived advantages of crypto such as privacy, decentralization, use of block chain systems, etc.

But the price is like the smoke above the battlefield, not the reason for the battle or any indicator who is winning or who is on the side of might or right.

Two major questions that arise from this tweet and the potential shift toward a clearer and simpler dialogue on crypto are the following:

  1. Is crypto generally, and Bitcoin / Ether more specifically established and entrenched enough to withstand the coming backlash from governments that feel threatened and other status quo institutions that will do whatever it takes to discourage or even stamp out crypto usage?
  2. Will the very battle itself, that Elon Musk says is the current “true” battle, bring even more attention to the weaknesses and problems with the current fiat money system and thereby increase, perhaps inadvertently yet massively, the size of the battle and its stakes?

Alternative systems of trade have been tolerated in the US for some time now. How are those air miles doing? What about the chips and points for perks you got at the Indian Casino? Is it too late to outlaw all crypto without causing a revolution in the streets?

The other side of the (clipped) coin

It is truly surprising to see how little is to be found in the media about the deeper reasons for the rise of crypto. How it sometimes seems like direct criticism of fiat currency is almost taboo.

Naturally any internet search will find many “rabbit hole” sources for all kinds of information critical of the current monetary system, the same system the near total collapse of which in 2008 inspired the creation of bitcoin.

It appears that Elon Musk is emphasizing, in a subdued manner, exactly the way that the nonsense-furor over huge price gains or declines is completely missing the actual point. The “true battle”.

Many stories in the media and millions of private comments are currently following a kind of convoluted logic – first the popularity of crypto (which is linked to the unpopularity of the very messed up fiat system) artificially and massively increases prices in many crypto assets.

This “bubble”, a typical outcome of human herding behavior in financial markets, inevitably bursts or sees large setbacks. Then the coin or crypto system itself is blamed for the human stupidity and greed that caused the distortions of price, just like happened in the dot-com bubble and the 2007 housing bubble and subsequent crash.

The difference is that the crypto bubble, in an interesting way, is in reality due to a surge in skepticism toward fiat currencies, a boom in the prevalence of mistrust toward governments and a combination of fear and greed that is growing, not dissipating.

Although many have rightly criticized Elon Musk’s tweets and odd Saturday Night Live appearance, and there is a kind of mini-backlash (growing?) against all things Musk, in this case it is a healthy and wise tweet that we have shown above.

Reframing, or more aptly refocusing the discussion away from prices and speculative profits and back to the real reasons that cryptos were initially created and why it has gained such massive support is a welcome shift. That this reframing comes from the likes of Musk himself, is fitting and who better to put forth a message to simplify and clarify the nature of the real “battle” at hand.

The following video has some interesting data and arguments for, and mainly against, the fiat regime under which we have lived for most of the last century. Although, in a sense, a kind of advertisement for Gold and Silver, the overview is nevertheless accurate and does not exaggerate the dangers and issues that revolve around the fiat system.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Lynxotic does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Business, Crypto, Elon Musk, Tech, Tesla

‘Big Short’ Investor Dr. Michael Burry Now has a $534 million short in Tesla, Inc.

Video

Above: Christian Bale, playing Dr. Michael Burry in “The Big Short“

The more things change, the more they stay the same

Shorting in the stock market has gotten a bad rep recently among the “WallStreetBets” crowd on Reddit, and those that were in the run-up frenzy over Game-Stop and AMC, Koss, etc. This was, for the most part, due to a lack of understanding of what shorting is, how it works and why it adds liquidity and has other benefits to markets as a whole.

Many of the crowd from that frenzy has now moved on to the crypto frenzy, which has a lot of speculators worried after relatively large drops in many of the top coins. Similar to the misunderstanding of short positions many of the speculators in crypto are new arrivals and, for a short time, had no experience of the fact that volatile, fast moving instruments, such as shares in tech companies or “alt-coins” also go down faster than slow moving investments. They don’t “only go up” as was the “slogan” for the Game Stop crowd and others at the time.

Michael Burry, the genius founder of Scion Asset Management, the firm that was chronicled in “The Big Short” (both the book and the film) which tells the story of how Burry bet against the US housing market at the peak of the bubble and experienced massive success when his billion dollar bet paid off.

That bet was, as the name of the book implies, the longest of long shots, and in the movie the skepticism and outright scorn and derision that he experienced for even thinking of taking that gamble was shown and formed the backbone of the story.

The power of that story was how a man with knowledge and experience could see clearly, even with one good eye, what millions of “experts” either could not see or were too corrupt to admit or accept.

That the housing market and the products devised to profit off of it, mortgage backed securities, collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps, and so forth, were about to take the entire world economy to the brink of doom.

A collapse did occur, and were it not for desperate and questionable bail-outs by the governments and the central banks around the world, could have collapsed the world economy to a level that would have taken decades to recover from.

Instead this “largest band-aid” in the history of the universe has been followed up by larger and larger ones until as of the writing some 14 trillion has been created to prop up the original “fix” and kick the can further and further down the road.

Fast forward to 2021 and see where Burry sees a big opportunity now…

Michael Burry, the same man who say the end of the housing bubble in 2006 and 2007, and bet big against the one market that no one, literally no one, believed could ever go down, appears to believe that the end of the road for the current speculative bubble ( at least in Tesla stock prices) is near.

Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management has disclosed a major, half-a-billion dollar short position against Tesla Inc.

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Scion Asset Management disclosed via a regulatory filing on May 17th that purchases were made for bearish put options on 800,100 shares in Tesla. In the disclosure was also the further information that, as of the end of the first quarter, the options had a value of US$534 million.

“my last Big Short got bigger and Bigger and BIGGER,” Burry said in a tweet from February, apparently referring to Tesla’s large surge in market capitalization. “Enjoy it while it lasts,” he continued.

It appears that, as of May 18th, he may have deleted his Twitter account entirely. Which, if true, may be over concerns that the SEC could have questions about the tweets, as wells as earlier tweets he made referring to other short position in GameStop Corp.

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/paramount/thebigshort/thebigshort-onlinespot_h1080p.mov

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Crypto, Elon Musk, Finance, Observation, Tech, Tesla

Elon Musk looking to fix Dogecoin System Transaction Efficiency after Bitcoin Reversal

As has been the case throughout, Elon Musk is Pro Crypto

As can be seen in the tweet above, Elon Musk has announced that he is working with Dogecoin developers to improve system transaction efficiency. He feels, apparently that this ongoing development, an effort to improve energy efficiency, no doubt, is “promising.

This comes after both his silly kinda-sorta negative jokes from his Saturday Night Live appearance a week ago, and his subsequent announcement regarding bitcoin and issues with energy consumption (see below).

Regardless of those issues being about perception or reality, which is an ongoing hot debate within the crypto community, at least the issue of making crypto even more viable as a medium of exchange and store of value is being talked about in good faith serious tones.

This is an indicator of his highly positive attitude and beliefs regarding the future of Bitcoin, Dogecoin and cryptocurrencies in general.

PR nightmare abated and pre-empted by announcement that Tesla will no longer accept Bitcoin

In a sudden about-face Elon Musk announced that Tesla would not accept Bitcoin for its environmentally friendly electric vehicles after all. This, after the company made big news when it purchased $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency which was revealed in an SEC filing.

In the first quarter report of 2021 the company revealed that it sold a portion of its Bitcoin and netted a $101 million profit. That number represented nearly a fourth of the reported total profits for the quarter.

An even larger contributing factor to the positive news at the time was the massive sales of regulatory credits were $518 million. In other words, profit from Bitcoin and government subsidies was basically 100% of the upside. Car sales, not so much.

Enter the massive media frenzy over the energy use “wasted” on Bitcoin mining and you have a PR disaster waiting to happen for Tesla and Musk. Naturally, clever lad that he is, it was prudent to cancel, at least temporarily the policy of allowing customers to pay with Bitcoin.

Odd thing is, there are many worse things sucking up energy than Bitcoin. And the mining will not stop or slow down because Tesla is not getting any for its cars. But the perception that there’s a “great cost to the environment” from crypto-mining is enough to make this sudden announcement mandatory from a PR standpoint.

Though not mentioned in the tweet where this policy change was announced, it is unlikely that Tesla will go forward with accepting Dogecoin, which was mentioned recently by Musk also, due to the perceived similarities in the mining process.

In the statement attached to Musk’s tweet he also states that they will potentially use a crypto currency if it can be used at an energy cost of less than 1% of Bitcoin per transaction.

This is a separate issue from the mining energy usage but it has also been a criticism that the energy expended to transact using Bitcoin is very high, compared to what is a separate question. Perception is at the root, but wanting more efficient crypto is certainly a laudable goal.

This part of the statement will no doubt lead to feverish speculation as to which cryptocurrency might meet his stated requirements.

Elon Musk’s support for cryptocurrency is, like his commitment to sustainable energy, a positive stance and, before his personal success became completely overblown, a courageous one.

Taking on the fossil fuel industry, it’s easy to forget, was no easy feat in the early days. And, similarly, the inevitable upcoming clash between crypto-adherents and governments (printers of fiat currencies) will need established eminent “super-citizens” to give crypto a chance of survival.

For that reason it is good to see that this does no represent a rejection of crypto itself on Musk’s part, but a necessary response to mounting criticism based on the perception of hypocrisy.

You can bet that, if there is a way to mine with sustainable energy sources (actually in many ways already happening) he will reverse his stance yet again.

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Breaking News, Business, Celebrities, Crypto, Elon Musk, Tech, Tesla

Elon Musk Announces BitCoin Reversal

Perception is Reality and the Perception is Bad

In a sudden about-face Elon Musk announced that Tesla would not accept Bitcoin for its environmentally friendly electric vehicles after all. This, after the company made big news when it purchased $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency which was revealed in an SEC filing.

In the first quarter report of 2021 the company revealed that it sold a portion of its Bitcoin and netted a $101 million profit. That number represented nearly a fourth of the reported total profits for the quarter.

An even larger contributing factor to the positive news at the time was the massive sales of regulatory credits were $518 million. In other words, profit from Bitcoin and government subsidies was basically 100% of the upside. Car sales, not so much.

Enter the massive media frenzy over the energy use “wasted” on Bitcoin mining and you have a PR disaster waiting to happen for Tesla and Musk. Naturally, clever lad that he is, it was prudent to cancel, at least temporarily the policy of allowing customers to pay with Bitcoin.

Odd thing is, there are many worse things sucking up energy than Bitcoin. And the mining will not stop or slow down because Tesla is not getting any for its cars. But the perception that there’s a “great cost to the environment” from crypto-mining is enough to make this sudden announcement mandatory from a PR standpoint.

Though not mentioned in the tweet where this policy change was announced, it is unlikely that Tesla will go forward with accepting Dogecoin, which was mentioned recently by Musk also, due to the perceived similarities in the mining process.

In the statement attached to Musk’s tweet he also states that they will potentially use a crypto currency if it can be used at an energy cost of less than 1% of Bitcoin per transaction.

This is a separate issue from the mining energy usage but it has also been a criticism that the energy expended to transact using Bitcoin is very high, compared to what is a separate question. Perception is at the root, but wanting more efficient crypto is certainly a laudable goal.

This part of the statement will no doubt lead to feverish speculation as to which cryptocurrency might meet his stated requirements.

Elon Musk’s support for cryptocurrency is, like his commitment to sustainable energy, a positive stance and, before his personal success became completely overblown, a courageous one.

Taking on the fossil fuel industry, it’s easy to forget, was no easy feat in the early days. And, similarly, the inevitable upcoming clash between crypto-adherents and governments (printers of fiat currencies) will need established eminent “super-citizens” to give crypto a chance of survival.

For that reason it is good to see that this does no represent a rejection of crypto itself on Musk’s part, but a necessary response to mounting criticism based on the perception of hypocrisy.

You can bet that, if there is a way to mine with sustainable energy sources (actually in many ways already happening) he will reverse his stance yet again.

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Business, Economics, Finance, Observation, Tech

There’s more to Money than Dead Presidents: Crypto is Alive and Well

Above: photo – Dead Presidents Collage – Lynxotic

Haters like Buffet and Mark Cuban’s cheerleading are off base and spreading confusion

Disclaimer first: This opinion article is not investment advice and does not advocate buying any investment vehicle or currency

There are so many misconceptions propagated far and wide these days that it’s hard to choose a place to start. First it’s important to recognize that crypto currencies are not stocks or companies, yes that’s obvious but one of the biggest “anti” argument these days is that there’s an absurdity to the aggregate total value of a “coin” being more than the market cap of the stock of a particular company.

“Ethereum is now worth more than Bank of America”, this nonsense comparison goes, as if the market cap of a stock and the price of a coin times the number of coins in existence has any meaning whatsoever.

Following this logic, however, beneath all the hype, both pro-crypto and anti-crypto, lies a hidden thread to an actual underlying truth.

Though based on obvious common sense, this thread is potentially confusing and convoluted, to say the least. But without seeing it clearly the misconceptions will just keep getting more ridiculous.

In order to illustrate the conundrum a bit of background is needed. For example:

Stocks, in the US are priced in dollars. But how are dollars priced? Isn’t just as accurate to say that when the “price” of the DJIA moves higher (3,4050 at this writing) it is the value of the dollar, in relation to the DJIA that went down?

While this requires a kind of mental gymnastics, these are only due to the constant bombardment meant to keep you from seeing this 100% valid way of viewing stock valuations based in dollars.

There’s another kind of tacit misinformation and that is stating that “inflation” is only relevant when it’s measured by the government. For example if the “bull market” that began in 2009 and continues into 2021 represented a huge increase in stock prices, that is asset inflation.

The inverse of asset inflation is a reduction in dollar value. Less shares of a given stock can be bought for the same number of dollars. The dollars are worth less.

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And further, crypto, such as BitCoin is measured as having more or less value in dollars. Who is to say the massive rise in the dollar “value” of BitCoin is not representative of a decline in the “intrinsic” value of dollars.

The truth is often hidden in plain sight and that is what drives traditional markets

And that is precisely the point. BitCoin’s existence, which is locked in the mind of Satoshi Nakamoto (if he indeed exists) was indicated cryptically (no pun intended) to be a kind of answer to the instability of the global financial system as was evidence in the crisis of 2008. Taking place nearly concurrently with the birth of the idea of BitCoin.

Seeing the dollar as having a “stable” value and measuring a companies value, via it’s share price, is, let’s just say, perhaps 100 times more absurd than the Dogecoin dog.

Why? Because, for nearly a century the dollar is not backed or moored to anything but the government’s hope that it will retain value and laws that prohibit you and I from using other vehicles as “legal tender”.

The data (and opinions) on this are seemingly endless and yet absolutely critical to understanding our monetary system and where crypto may or may not fit in.

Horseshoe Nails and The Isle of Yap

Many interesting historical facts point toward the reality that money and coinage has always been just as much about the abstract belief in the system, more than any particular “intrinsic” value.

On the Micronesian Isle of Yap there was a functioning monetary system based on huge stones. A New York Times article, published in 1971 described the curious system:

“Every piece has an owner, and everyone knows who the owner is. Even when the money changes hands, it usually stays put. Yapese stone money is the largest and heaviest “coin” in the world.

In earlier days, brave islanders paddled by canoe 300 miles across open ocean to Palau where they cut slices from huge stalactites and brought them back as money. The value depended on how many men were drowned bringing them back. Nowadays, value is usually determined by measurements. We heard various versions, ranging from $10 radial inch to $42 a foot.”

Another article explains that many “wealthy” home (hut) owners displayed their money by leaving it leaning against the front of the house, where all could see the prosperity.

And, as for the prevention of fraud and corruption in any monetary system? Could any be more corrupt than the one that led to credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities imploding and all the BS that nearly brought down the world’s banking system?

And that is not new either. In the 1800s traveling bank examiners journeyed throughout the US to check on the gold reserves claimed by various banks. More often than not, they found far less gold than was claimed (in today’s fractional banking system little attempt is made to reduce the leverage in the system).

A common, clever, trick to try to “leverage” what little gold was actually on hand was to pile gold coins and ingots on top of a bed of horseshoe nails, hoping that the examiner would weigh the entire concoction only, and never notice the bogus hidden attempt to bolster the weight.

Bitcoin’s system at least attempts to circumvent this typically human brand of fraud and corruption.

In the article “What is Cryptomining” on Techspot a chart was published to illustrate how Satoshi Nakamoto tried to solve the classic trust delimma with the proof of work mining system.

“For example, if Alice has $100 at the beginning of the day, she could promise Bob, Charlie, and David independently that she’d send them each $100 by the end of the day. While Alice could show them that she owns $100 and they’d all be content and agree to the transaction, Alice only has $100. Thus, if at the end of the day, the public ledger (which once finalized is set in stone, so to speak) includes 3 transactions initiated by Alice for $100, the system would be broken and no one would want to use it.

With a centralized system such as in modern day banks, there would exist a single ledger that can validate how much money a certain individual has, and thus it can guarantee that the customer cannot spend more than they own. When talking about a decentralized, peer-to-peer system, however, who’s there to stop a clever individual from spending their money multiple times quickly before getting caught?

To address this potential issue, crypto miners enter the playing field. Essentially, miners play the role of the decentralized banker, and will perform the required gruntwork to ensure that the system is functioning as expected without double-spending. In return for their work, they will be rewarded with some cryptocurrency.”

Buffet, Cuban, Musk & Munger

In clonclusion, Buffet, Munger and The Wall Street Journal may have knowledge and experience but they have also derived benefit from a system that favors those already holding capital, one that also has a tendency to crush those trying to build it.

So, it’s fairly obvious that they are “talking their book” and data mining to produce a self-congratulatory outcome, when they expound on all the reasons that they hate crypto (Munger even called it “disgusting”).

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As for Musk and Cuban, what’ve they got to lose? At least they “get it”, at least they are open to the idea of a future that has crypto as a part of the financial system. But where will they stand if there is government resistance in a big way, and if attempts to stop the entire crypto movement or “de-fang” it in ways that make it less viable as a true alternative to the status quo? That, my friend, will be the 1000 BitCoin question.

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Crypto, Entertainment, Tech, Videos

Lloyd Ostertag aka Elon Musk aka The DogeFather on SNL – full clip

Video

Above: photo via Twitter credit: Mac Rumors

Was it really a knock on Crypto, or was there a hidden plug in the details?

Elon’s big night in NYC was awkward, as expected and he should probably keep his day job. The highlight, for pretty much everyone on earth (not sure about mars), was the Weekend Update segment where Musk appeared as Lloyd Ostertag, a crypto “expert” dressed in professorial garb.

Watch the clip below, and you will notice that, although the punchline was a dis’ on Doge, saying, or rather “admitting” that it’s a “hustle”, a detailed listening to Musk’s entire speech reveals some gems that go in the opposite direction, for those that follow crypto, and, well, money.

The dollar is just as real (or unreal) as DogeCoin

In a comedy skit looking like it was designed to avoid scrutiny by the SEC, the writers at SNL, presumably with Musk’s help, decided to put a negative spin on both mentions of DOGE during the show. First, in an exchange with his Mom, Maye, Musk sheepishly grins and nods after she says she “hopes it won’t be DogeCoin” referring to her Mother’s day gift.

He eventually capitulates and, after saying that DogeCoin is “about as real as that dollar” he “concedes” that “it’s a hustle”.

Elon Musk, as LLoyd Ostertag on Saturday Night Live, May 8th 2021

Later, in the “Weekend Update” segment Musk plays “Lloyd Ostertag” who calls himself the “DogeFather” – and the anchors ask repeatedly, in a somewhat dismissive tone, “what is DogeCoin?”. The gag is that he, as Ostertag, eventually capitulates and, after saying that DogeCoin is “about as real as that dollar”, “concedes” that “it’s a hustle”.

While the bulk of his appearance in the segment does reconfirm and support his actual views, in a smirking and slightly deprecating way, as Ostertag”, it also underscores a deeper truth that cryptocurrencies are “as real as the dollar” (some would say more real). However, in the end, the punchline is a negative way to sweep all of that away, with a nod to Buffet, Munger and the SEC, thereby toeing the line and insuring himself one less courtroom headache.

DOGE has the last laugh? Is Crypto dead? Doubtful…

As of Sunday, May 9th, DOGE is hovering around .51 cents. The Muskian peak was .74 cents on May 7th. This means that, although there was a decline on the “news” that Musk would not break the SEC rules by blatantly pumping DogeCoin on live national TV, the coin is still up approximately 33% for the week, 734% for the last month and 19,446% for the last year. And, according to Elon Musk, aka Lloyd Ostertag, aka the DogeFather, it is “about as real” as that dollar in your pocket.

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Breaking News, Business, Entertainment, Finance, Tech, Videos

Was Elon Musk’s weak dis’ on SNL the real reason for DogeCoin’s Drop?

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Is any chosen form of “money” any more of a “hustle” than another?

Elon’s big night in NYC turned out, not surprisingly, to be less than climactic for the Shiba Inu meme crypto coin DOGE as it was seen sinking during the show and on Sunday. A wise man once said “correlation is not causation” and yet can anyone or anything be responsible for the drop in the high flying cryptocoin other than Elon and his Mom?

In stock market lingo this was what’s known as a “date certain” event. Meaning, the entire world knew that Elon would be on SNL and would, one way or another, mention DOGE, given that he has been endlessly associated with the coin in the media, and it’s a “joke” that has to be told, if only to prove to the SEC that he is really just joking. “Look guys, I am literally on a comedy show talking about this”, he seems to be saying.

“Buy the Rumor, Sell the News”

For good measure, and to avoid scrutiny by the oversight body, he, and the writers at SNL, decided to put a negative spin on both mentions of DOGE during the show. First, in an exchange with his Mom, Maye, Musk sheepishly grins and nods after she says she “hopes it won’t be DogeCoin” referring to her Mother’s day gift.

He eventually capitulates and, after saying that DogeCoin is “about as real as that dollar” he “concedes” that “it’s a hustle”.

Elon Musk, as LLoyd Ostertag on Saturday Night Live, May 8th 2021

Later, in a sketch with 100% focus on the crypto coin, the “Weekend Update” segment features Musk playing “Lloyd Ostertag” who calls himself the “DogeFather” – who is asked repeatedly “what is DogeCoin”. He eventually capitulates and, after saying that DogeCoin is “about as real as that dollar” he “concedes” that “it’s a hustle”.

While the bulk of his appearance in the segment does reconfirm and support his actual views, in a smirking and slightly deprecating way, as Ostertag”, it also underscores a deeper truth that cryptocurrencies are “as real as the dollar” (some would say more real). However, in the end, the punchline is a negative way to sweep away all of that, with a nod to Buffet, Munger and the SEC, toeing the line and insuring himself one less courtroom headache.

Was it the Day of reckoning for Dogecoin? Possible but doubtful

As of Sunday, May 9th, DOGE is hovering around .51 cents. The Muskian peak was .74 cents on May 7th. This means that, although there was a decline on the “news” that Musk would not break the SEC rules by blatantly pumping DogeCoin on live national TV, the coin is still up approximately 33% for the week, 734% for the last month and 19,446% for the last year. And, according to Elon Musk, aka Lloyd Ostertag, aka the DogeFather, it is “about as real” as that dollar in your pocket.

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Books, Business, Economics, Finance, Observation, Politics, Tech

In: ‘Antitrust: Taking on Monopoly Power from the Gilded Age to the Digital Age’, Amy Klobuchar Takes on World’s Greatest Challenge

Photo Collage / Lynxotic

Is the title above wrong? Depends who you ask…

In her new book, Klobuchar tries to connect the historical roots of antitrust actions to populism and her own ancestry. That’s not all, however. Although difficult, particularly for readers who are not legal scholars, there’s an important and deeper historic thread here that she is aiming to contribute to.

That job is to find a way to illuminate how the digital age, with all its challenges and complexities, can come to terms with the simple question of how to measure damage that is being done by big tech monopolies, through sheer size, power and lack of external accountability.

Moreover, there is an issue of how antitrust law and practice veered away from the remedies and goals, first established during the Gilded Age, toward a laissez-fair, anti-regulatory stance that gained steam in the Regan years.

That shift is, in many ways, to blame for the current extreme state characterized by dangerous levels of concentrated wealth and power by big tech.

This effort may seem like one that is doomed to being ignored by all but the already long-since converted. But, make no mistake, it is a topic that will grow, reverberate and become more relevant as the current administration in Washington consolidates and comes into its own.

“People have just gotten beaten down. I wanted to show the public and elected officials that you’re not the first kids on the block with this. What do you think it was like back when trusts literally controlled everyone on the Supreme Court, or literally elected members of the Senate before they were elected by the public?”

— Amy Klobuchar, in Wired interview with Steven Levey

When President Biden recently nominated Lina M. Khan to the Federal Trade Commission, in addition to Columbia Law School professor Tim Wu, who announced earlier this month he would join the National Economic Council, he set forth a clear path for an antitrust direction that has the potential to be more than just rhetoric and window dressing.

Khan is an unequivocal proponent of a new era of antitrust, one that is, not coincidentally, along the lines of what Klobuchar advocates. Likely sharing these ultra clear views from her long and celebrated research, Khan, along with Wu, is a key addition to Biden’s growing roster of Big Tech critics, and there is already a blueprint for actions and cases that will build to a crescendo over the next several years.

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Biden’s call for the repeal of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, meanwhile, a hotly contested and possibly flawed legal shield some feel is exploited by Internet platforms, is another indicator of the tenor of the coming actions.

In a sense, with this bestselling book [on Amazon: #1 in Political Economy, #1 in Government Management, #1 in Business Law (Books)] the gargantuan task of connecting the culpability of massive, nearly infinitely powerful behemoths, each in it’s own territory, to the social and economic catastrophes that they’ve brought down on the world.

However, while politicians like Klobuchar may not have the charisma and energy to set a fire under the population, it is the very deeds themselves that will eventually conspire to ignite an uprising and put pressure on the government and the courts to take real, substantive measures. And with young, new faces and minds such as possessed by Khan and Wu, ultimately there is a bulwark of criticism against monopolist abuses building in government and among the public at large.

“I am never saying, ‘Get rid of their products.’ But let’s have more of the products that give you more choices. You can keep one product, but it’s better to have other products, because we’re not China.”

Amy Klobuchar in Wired interview with Steven Levey

 In response to Klobuchar’s quote above Steven Levey in Wired wrote; “In other words, Facebook could keep it’s main app, but the public might benefit if Instagram and WhatsApp were not Mark Zuckerberg productions.” 

While this kind of “moderate” view may not be the earth shattering remedy that would turn the juggernauts around in a heartbeat, from Zuckerberg’s perspective it would not be ideal, to say the least.

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And, since we have seen the unfettered and viral growth of big tech, for at least a quarter century in some cases, and since there was a aura of hero worship afforded their leaders for most of that time, a break-up, such as that could ultimately turn out to be the beginning of more sweeping changes. A welcome outcome for those that have been harmed the various monopolistic structures that rule nearly all our lives, or at least it seems, at times.

Levey then asked Klobuchar why legislators so often embarrass themselves in hearings with irrelevant partisanship, clueless technical questions, and time-wasting grandstanding. Her response;

“Welcome to my life,” she says. “I get it—there’s going to be hearings that are irritating to people who know a lot. But that’s a great argument for tech to use because they don’t want this oversight.” 

Amy Klobuchar in Wired interview with Steven Levey

In defense of using the word “antitrust in the title, while also advocating its eradication in future she responded:

 “Well, I thought antitrust was an interesting word”. “It’s not only about this body of law; it’s also about not trusting anyone.”

Amy Klobuchar in Wired interview with Steven Levey

Perhaps it is more the course of history that led to the current and incredibly extreme situation and obscene dominance by big tech that is what should never have be trusted to arise in the first place.

Perhaps these firms will one day be seen, looking back from future generations, as a temporarily necessary, but evil mistake of history, as was the toothless interpretation of laws that led to their rise from “scrappy underdog startups” into malignant monopolies run amok.

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Business, Documentaries, Entertainment, Movies, Videos

‘WeWork: Or the Making and Breaking of a $47 Billion Unicorn’

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Above: ‘WeWork: Or the Making and Breaking of a $47 Billion Unicorn’ Credit: HULU

The story of a fiasco of monumental proportions that deserves to be told

WeWork, from the fabled insanity of the SoftBank funding to the crash and burn of founder and then CEO Adam Neumann would, in any other epoch, perhaps, be the most spectacular and outrageous failure of our time.

However, competing with stories like the Theranos / Elizabeth Holmes saga and more recently wild tales from WallStreetBets, GameStop and various manias-in-the-making (NFTs anyone?) it doesn’t seem as remarkable.

That is until one takes a closer look. With a ‘valuation” ( a term that had little actual meaning in the case of WeWork) of $47 billion at its peak, just a month-and-a-half from near bankruptcy, is one way to try and put the absurdity into context.

Billion Dollar Loser: The Epic Rise and Spectacular Fall of Adam Neumann and Wework

In the end, after perhaps a feature film and a couple of more documentaries such as “WeWork: Or the Making and Breaking of a $47 Billion Unicorn” it will be brought out how venture capital excesses and ideas like those of SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son, who was primarily responsible for WeWork’s meteoric rise that will be seen as the real madness of the age.

According to an oft told anecdote, in 2017, Mr. Neumann needed only 12 minutes of walking Mr. Son around WeWork’s headquarters to convince the SoftBank mogul to shell out an investment of $4.4 billion.

Complex and even more insane ideas motivated the $billions in funding

It was, after all, Masayoshi Son who chose to invest billions based on this “elevator pitch” and who, according to many accounts, egged on the young founder to think bigger, faster and “crazier”. And that advice was taken seriously, by all means.

However, during an era where it is a truism in VC culture, particularly in Silicon Valley, that it’s “harder to get a $100,000 investment than it is to get 100 million, it was ultimately more about systemic excesses, which inexorably lead to the enabling of a megalomaniacal start-up personality like Neumann and give him enough funds to turn him into a madman of nearly historical proportions.

Directed by Jed Rothstein’s (The China Hustle) the new Hulu documentary (trailer below) is a good first draft of an account trying to depict Neumann’s extravagant rise and fall. However the sheer scope and depth of the hubris that underlie, not just the WeWork saga, but the corrupt age itself, that makes the treatment here somehow less successful than a deeper, more insightful look at what brought about this tragic farce could have been.

Making Neumann the center of the madness is an easy way out of asking, and answering, deeper questions

For all his “reincarnated hippie” talk of uniting the world around an idea – after charged his own company $5.9 million for his absurd trademark of the word “we” (which he was forced to pay back when the details leaked)- and how he would unite the world (and be the first world president and trillionaire ), the actual “idea” and the company was based on little more than infantile greed run amok.

Unfortunately, it’s the complex back room mathematics made his “dream” a reality and now this documentary look into it and the real estate “empire of cards” that sill exists after Neumann has long departed. I fear it will require a more revelatory and analytical treatment than this credible and watchable first look can provide. Still worth checking out for the thrill and nonsense of the waning days of pre-2020 excesses nearly beyond imagination. On Hulu now.

Above: Official trailer for ‘WeWork: Or the Making and Breaking of a $47 Billion Unicorn’

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Business, Observation, Social Media, Tech

A Huge and Welcome Shift in Social Media Money is On the Horizon

Above: Photo / Adobe Stock

Platform wars are heating up and influencers may be prime beneficiaries…

Something strange is happening in social media: influencers are getting paid, sometimes directly by platforms.

To clarify; there have always been ways for creators with a large following to monetize their stats. Mainly, however, until recently that mostly involved sponsorships and affiliate merchandise, and the like.

On top of the efforts required to create winning content, getting paid for it was an additional job and creators got little assistance from the greatest beneficiaries of the work: the host platforms themselves.

Suddenly, it seems, the value of creators in bringing and keeping traffic for the platforms is so high, as a war rages between platforms for that traffic, that some have gone as far as initiating new programs to pay influential content makers directly.

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Naturally, YouTube has had a monetization program that requires elevated status to qualify for and then takes a more than 30% cut of the proceeds, but on the whole payment for creative content production has been minimal for all but the most massive stars in the social media firmament. Now, that appears to be changing, and fast.

Snap, a once hot destination, is trying to boost its attractiveness by paying out $1 million per day for popular posts. TikTok, the fastest growing platform recently, has also set up a fund to pay out to creators and says it will increase the fund to $1 billion.

All of this is not going unnoticed by the platforms with the most traffic, Facebook and its owned entity Instagram, and, in an unprecedented move, payments are beginning to flow on those platforms also. Twitter, Clubhouse and others have various plans in the works as well.

There’s a massive shift toward coveting creators as a result of competition for traffic and members

What this all boils down to is two things. There’s a war going on (in reality battles left and right in many areas of internet dominance) and the spoils are traffic growth, and that growth is only possible for the platforms if creators migrate in and stick around.

As long as Facebook, Instagram and Google’s YouTube were untouchable monopolies they did not need to admit that they needed the allegiance of creators and influencers.

As the only game in town, each in a different monopolized neighborhood, there was literally no where for the creators to run to. No more. Mainly TikTok and now upstarts like Clubhouse are changing the landscape and that is scary to the legacy platforms.

Anecdotal evidence points to the ability for talent to garner views and followers, via the algorithm settings that either promote or hide content from prospective consumers, as the prime mover, at least initially, for the creators to favor TikTok.

Stories abound of creators that, within days or weeks, were able to get millions of views due to the “democratic” openness of the TikTok system for featuring content based on less restrictive algorithms than the entrenched platforms.

The once invincible behemoths at Facebook and Google let greed get the best of them. It has been literally years since organic reach, the ability to get views and traffic just on the quality of the content, was possible on facebook and the price to reach an audience, with paid posts, just kept going higher and higher.

Now, due to this tectonic shift in power, from the platforms to the influencers and users, there is, unbelievably, a situation emerging where Facebook must appease the talent and creativity of the content creators if they want to remain relevant.

Pending antitrust actions and privacy issues are just adding to the shifting status and uncertain future of social media

In a sense, there was always a kind of unwritten rule of social media: the owners and creators of the platforms retained all the money and power with none of the liability or labor requirements.

That relationship, which is like slaves who built the great pyramids, but without the allowance for food or shelter, was doomed from the start as it is based on a lie.

Ultimately the platform has very little to offer, technological and software designs are easily replicated theses days, and these platforms are not in the business of generating any of content, yet they expect that content to be created for free by users.

This ridiculous valueless and vampiric scam has been lionized and worshiped as the ultimate internet success formula for more than a decade.

Facebook, and Mark Zuckerberg, have stood as the ultimate arbiters of how to become obscenely rich by enticing the world to work and create content for your platform for zero renumeration.

Once a company, coincidentally one that originated in China, came along and decided not to worship the Zuckerberg formula, but to undercut it by giving creators an ever-so-slightly less terrible deal, the spell was broken.

Next, it was only a matter of time before the war over the real value began: the content itself that users and particularly top creators on each platform provide.

Not to say that TikTok is heroic or intentionally upset the apple cart as a result of any foresight or altruism, this is just the inevitable outcome of a failed and corrupt system eventually becoming mature and collapsing (slowly) under its own stupidity.

For now, this slight reprieve from endless exploitation is an extremely hopeful sign. Let’s hope that creator payouts and the competition for content, real content that has value regardless of which platform hosts it, will continue to rise in stature.

Any creators or influencers out there who are listening, do what you do best which is create, and now add the option to sell your services to the highest bidder to your toolkit and keep your eyes and ears open for the next, even more accommodative platform to emerge from the muck. Then go there.

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Business, Stock Market, Tech

Elon Musk, Tesla & SpaceX income from Carbon Tax Credits, Bitcoin and Government Subsidies

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Above: Photo collage / Forbes / Lynxotic

Odd facts that illustrate the world today where Elon Musk says BitCoin is “less dumb” than cash. He’s right. Cash also known a “fiat currency” is a piece of paper with a promise to pay on demand nothing in exchange when presented.

It does have a legal framework behind it, meaning you go to jail if you try to use your own version. There’s that.

The Tesla CEO said that investing in Bitcoin is a “less dumb form of liquidity than cash” after his company bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency.

“To be clear, I am not an investor, I am an engineer,” he said on Twitter. “I don’t even own any publicly traded stock besides Tesla.”

The idea that Tesla and other companies are having concerns over the stability of cash, and concerns over the effectively negative interest rates in the mean time is clear.

Bitcoin may not be a solution that will be permitted by the Government (think gold in 1934). But a reckoning is a-comin’ and it will get interesting.

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is a genius who is doing great things. Perhaps it is his genius for finance that is most underestimated, however, considering his funding success throughout the years.

Some stats:

Regulatory Credits, aka, Carbon Tax credits, as per CNN:

It’s a lucrative business for Tesla — bringing in $3.3 billion over the course of the last five years, nearly half of that in 2020 alone. The $1.6 billion in regulatory credits it received last year far outweighed Tesla’s net income of $721 million — meaning Tesla would have otherwise posted a net loss in 2020.

“Based on our calculations, we estimate that Tesla so far has made roughly $1 billion of profit [on Bitcoin holdings] over the last month…To put this in perspective, Tesla is on a trajectory to make more from its Bitcoin investments than profits from selling its EVs in all of 2020…” source: Wedbush’s analyst Dan Ives

SpaceX income in U.S. Gov contracts and subsidies:

LA times estimated that already by 2015 Various Musk led businesses took in over 4.9 billion in government income:

“Tesla Motors Inc., SolarCity Corp. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, together have benefited from an estimated $4.9 billion in government support, according to data compiled by The Times. The figure underscores a common theme running through his emerging empire: a public-private financing model underpinning long-shot start-ups.” – LA Times

More recently in 2020 in Forbes:

“The research note titled SpaceX: Raising Valuation Scenarios Following Key Developments, listed the company’s recent $1.9 billion funding round and the “continued momentum in winning government contracts” (mainly from NASA and the U.S Department of Defense) as key reasons for its revision of SpaceX’s value. The note doesn’t bother to mention important financial details like SpaceX’s current revenue or estimated revenue for 2020 or even 2021. Or whether SpaceX is profitable or not.”

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AI, Apple, Apps, Breaking News, Business, iPhone, OS Software, Tech

What is “Clubhouse” and Why is it The Next Big Thing in Social Media Networks?

Above: Photo Collage / Lynxotic / Adobe Stock

Getting more buzz daily and sign-ups continue to accelerate

Clubhouse is a fast growing “new” social media sensation that is growing at an amazing rate. It is also constantly morphing in an endless kaleidoscopic experience that comes from an amazing new technology: the conference call.

Exploring the paradox that having no gifs, no photos, no memes, not even a string of text is now the most added social app with the biggest buzz is as good a starting point as any.

Imagine you are unable to text, unable to send or post a photo, unable to speak unless you are called up or invited to be on on stage, need to use your real name for sign-up and must adhere to the specified topics and protocols of each room.

Read more: Mark Zuckerberg Joins ClubHouse: Crashes the App (for a short time)

Sounds restrictive right? But it is this very contrast with other forms of social media that seems, for many, liberating, even transcendent. Once you realize that you are in a room with, in some cases, 12 or so people on stage and thousands of people listening in the audience, its a bit like a panel discussion, but in a smaller rooms it’s like a small gang in Philly circled around an oil drum fire chatting (or conspiring as it were) while they rub their hands together to keep warm.

Next, imagine, in a few years, when apple’s “Animoji” capability is added, perhaps with a body, the ability to walk around with some scenic backgrounds and you have “Ready Player One” in real life.

Obviously gaming platforms approximate this but for non-gamers, as the tech sophistication advances, it becomes more viable and interesting. And it’s the enthusiasm from the public exploding for the speech only version of this that could be key in hastening the realization.

Read more: Apple CEO Tim Cook: ‘A social dilemma, cannot be allowed to become a social catastrophe’

On the other hand, clubhouse users are raving about, while others are lamenting, the intense intimacy that comes with speaking to, or sometimes whispering in, each other’s ears. The ASMR version of a conference call. With an audience.

There are also music rooms and a music mode – a higher fidelity version of a room where singing playing instruments and more is possible. The idea is to eventually do concerts (possibly paid) and even live collaborations and more.

The phenomenal nature and accelerated adoption since the launch is is perhaps just as much a reaction to the chaos and collisions that are so ubiquitous on platforms like Twitter, Instagram and others, as it is a fascination with the “new-yet-old” options enabled by the Clubhouse technology.

Users Date

1,500 May 2020

600,000 December 2020

2 million January 2021

6 million February 2021

Sources: TechCrunch, New York Times, Mashable, CNBC, Medium.

Add to all the the perfect synchronicity of the first lockdown phase of the pandemic corresponding to the initial public launch in March, 2020 and you have a historic paradigm shift that may well carry forward for years or even decades. Adaptation to new ways of communicating as a necessity and a natural next step.

Read more: The Social Dilemma 2.0: Follow the Money Edition

How to get your account set up and what’s what in the app

For a basic breakdown: the app is audio only. Once you are invited (or get on the waiting list and are let in by a sponsor) and ready to set up your account you will be prompted for the usual things, user name, real name, bio, phone number and so forth. You can also direct connect a live link Twitter and Instagram accounts, which is where the “DMs” have to happen since the app has no built in messaging.

Read more: Facebook, Google, Antitrust and the All Pervasive Underestimation of the Big Tech Threat

Once is you will see there are “rooms” and “clubs”. Rooms are always available and can be joined or created by all members. If you join a “live” room you are, as default, put into the “audience” which has two sub-sections: the “followed by the speakers” section which gives you a kind of front row seat, and the “non-followed” regular audience. The audience members have no microphone button and cannot speak without it.

To become a speaker you can click on a “hand” symbol which activates “raise your hand” allowing any “moderator” (designated with a “green bean” asterisk icon) to invite you to the “stage”, which is where the speakers reside.

The moderators do have the power to interrupt a speaker or even kick a speaker back to the audience, thereby removing any speaking privileges.

Read more: Spacex’s Starlink Broadband Speed Goal just went into the Stratosphere

The magic of the app is in this structure, clubhouse etiquette, and the ability to have multi-minds from all walks of life that, generally, choose a topic for the room and then, with the guidance of the moderators, get input from various speakers on stage.

“Clubs” are like permanent rooms that also have signed-up members (some have thousands or tens of thousands of them) and these often have scheduled sessions, weekly, daily or otherwise, in advance.

Sign up!

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Breaking News, Business, Tech

Jeff Bezos will step down as Amazon CEO: will Exec Chair position allow remote control?

All signs point to continued involvement, or?

Founder and CEO of Amazon, Jeff Bezos has announced he will step down and become executive chairman.  Andy Jassy, the current cloud computing chief, will become the next CEO stated for the third quarter. 

Read more: Spacex’s Starlink Broadband Speed Goal just went into the Stratosphere

During the pandemic and recent holidays, Amazon with its warehouses open, recorded sky-high profits reaching quarterly sales over $100 billion.

Read More: Amazon declines to join Google, Facebook and Microsoft in French “Tech for Good Call”

Based on a memo posted for Amazon employees, Bezos noted:  “As Exec Chair I will stay engaged in important Amazon initiatives but also have the time and energy I need to focus on the Day 1 Fund, the Bezos Earth Fund, Blue Origin, The Washington Post, and my other passions.”

Read more: Apple’s Tim Cook: ‘A social dilemma, cannot be allowed to become a social catastrophe’

Or:

Though his Exec Chair position may mean that very little changes going forward, based on the challenging prospects for the huge and much criticized firm it may indeed signal the end of an era.

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Entertainment, Movies, Stock Market, Videos

Watch ‘The Big Short’ and ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ if GameStop Mania has your Curiosity Piqued

Video

Stories from Past Crises can Reveal New Insights as we Encounter huge Challenges

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/paramount/thebigshort/thebigshort-onlinespot_h1080p.mov

Right now, the best movies on the financial crises of 2008 and 2000 and stock trading in general are all trending on the streaming rental market, since they are nearly impossible to find on subscription based platforms such as Netflix, HBO Max, Disney +, etc.

As a result, paid views have skyrocketed, for example, on iTunes, where “The Big Short” is #3 and “Wolf on Wall Street” is #4

This surge applies to other films such as the excellent ‘Boiler Room” with Giovanni Ribisi. The films are all excellent and worth paying for if the chaotic craze with huge money gained and lost with GameStop, AMC and the whole Reddit, Robinhood brouhaha has you curious to learn more about the financial markets.

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Also available on Amazon.

The reality is sinking in, slowly, that the future is truly unknowable and that big changes and even bigger challenges are looming. Twin shocks of a health emergency and a financial crisis, intertwined and yet with separate trajectories, are still to be resolved in our near future.

And then there’s the myriad of other challenges that were already acute, such as global warming and the “other” epidemic; corruption and greed. It’s almost too much to face up to, and no one can be blamed for wanting to just turn away.

Too much has been glossed over. After the 2008 crisis we all just wanted to put that ugly mess behind us and get on with our lives. I suppose the criminals that netted billions as a “reward” for almost destroying the entire global economy were also eager to just move on.

All that as it may be, perhaps, a way to begin the process of regaining our courage and looking into the future with some kind of hope, or at least a deeper understanding of the human dilemma and historical precedents, might be to enjoy films about small moments of triumph before great adversity. Here are a few recent options:

The Big Short:

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/paramount/thebigshort/thebigshort-fte1_h1080p.mov

Barely 12 years ago, the financial collapse and ensuing “Great Recession” was a nightmare scenario. The aftermath of that debacle is also a contributor to the economic dangers we see before us in 2020. This film, likely the best based on that era, highlights how outsiders and misfits were able to prosper, even as they witnessed the corruption, failure and systemic injustice that brought the world to the brink of total economic chaos.

Starring: Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt.

Want know more about shorting? About the shady and complicated scams? And also see an incredible film?

‘Wolf of Wall Street’:

The Wolf of wall street is simply a great movie. It’s even better though if you watch it in the context of stock market mania. Just like the one that’s happening now.

Beyond the fact that the story is incredibly entertaining it does also get into the heart of the “pump & dump” boiler room mentality. While the so called ‘retail investors” who are riding the Robinhood stock purchasing app to what they see as well deserved revenge on Wall Street, and Belfort who was the real life “Wolf of Wall Street” was more of a wannabe that couldn’t get into the establishment.

Read more: Confused about GameStop, Robinhood, Reddit and Wall Street Bets? Check out the Big Short

He then set forth, with chutzpa and insanity and some drugs, built his own criminal empire, there are some very clear correlations between his tricks that made him rich and what the short-squeezing Reddit & Wall Street Bets chat room vigilantes are doing right now.

Can we all be like the guys, Jordan Belfort or Michael Burry, who was played by Christian Bale in the movie, and even though it was about going short, it’s sill ok, cause, Christian Bale?

Read more: GameStop, Dogecoin, Robinhood and Stonks: What’s going on!?

History does exist, even if it happened before your uncle was born

Up until 1934 many things were legal and rampant that today, technically, are not allowed. Insider Trading is the most obvious and best defined, look up Martha Stewart and jail time if you want to know more about that. 

Collusion in the market is another less well known practice, also known as “pump & dump” that has as many variations as Ponzi schemes and, though illegal, will never be stamped out. The technical terms for Colluding in relation to stock trading are “securities fraud” or “market manipulation.”

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/paramount/wolfofwallstreet/thewolfofwallstreet-tlr2_h1080p.mov

Not to get technical but here’s an partial excerpt of the legal specifics: 

15 U.S. Code § 78i – Manipulation of security prices

(a) – (2 To effect, alone or with 1 or more other persons, a series of transactions in any security registered on a national securities exchange, any security not so registered, or in connection with any security-based swap or security-based swap agreement with respect to such security creating actual or apparent active trading in such security, or raising or depressing the price of such security, for the purpose of inducing the purchase or sale of such security by others.

Anthropocene: The Human Epoch

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/independent/anthropocene/anthropocene-trailer-1b_h1080p.mov

Read more: “GameStonks vs. Wall Street”: Heroes, Victims and Hogwash

Click to buy “Antrhopocene” 
and at the same time help Lynxotic 
and All Independent Local Bookstores. 
Also available on Amazon.

For a bird’s-eye overview and scientific perspective – Athropocene is a film for those ready to think deeply on how, once beyond the immediate danger, we would want to emerge into a new era as a species. A positive reaction to the current crisis, worldwide, has been a series of ideas and proposals that show a willingness to confront the challenges from an entirely new perspective. Maybe new leadership can mean starting over and making a pledge to try a new approach to literally everything.

‘The film follows the research of an international body of scientists, the Anthropocene Working Group who, after nearly 10 years of research, argue that the Holocene Epoch gave way to the Anthropocene Epoch in the mid-twentieth century as a result of profound and lasting human changes to the Earth.”

Cinderella Man

This Depression era feel-good story takes on new meaning as we see a “Great Depression II” potentially looming. Looking for strength and courage facing forces that threaten our survival, and coming out at the end in a better place, that’s a synopsis and blueprint we can all benefit from observing, even if it’s packaged as a Hollywood vehicle. Russel Crowe at his best. Maybe worth a second look.

Enjoy Lynxotic at Apple News on your iPhone, iPad or Mac

Find books on Global Warming, Climate Change, Sustainable Energy and many other topics at our sister site: Cherrybooks on Bookshop.org

Lynxotic may receive a small commission based on any purchases made by following links from this page.

Breaking News, Entertainment, Movies, Stock Market, Videos

Wolf of Wall Street has Pump & Dump and more to Inform during the Game Stop Craze

Video

Want know more about shorting? About the shady and complicated scams? And also see an incredible film?

The Wolf of wall street is simply a great movie. It’s even better though if you watch it in the context of stock market mania. Just like the one that’s happening now.

Beyond the fact that the story is incredibly entertaining it does also get into the heart of the “pump & dump” boiler room mentality. While the so called ‘retail investors” who are riding the Robinhood stock purchasing app to what they see as well deserved revenge on Wall Street, and Belfort who was the real life “Wolf of Wall Street” was more of a wannabe that couldn’t get into the establishment. He then set forth, with chutzpa and insanity and some drugs, built his own criminal empire, there are some very clear correlations between his tricks that made him rich and what the short-squeezing Reddit & Wall Street Bets chat room vigilantes are doing right now.

Read more: Confused about GameStop, Robinhood, Reddit and Wall Street Bets? Check out the Big Short

Can we all be like the guys, Jordan Belfort or Michael Burry, who was played by Christian Bale in the movie, and even though it was about going short, it’s sill ok, cause, Christian Bale?

Read more: GameStop, Dogecoin, Robinhood and Stonks: What’s going on!?

History does exist, even if it happened before your uncle was born

Up until 1934 many things were legal and rampant that today, technically, are not allowed. Insider Trading is the most obvious and best defined, look up Martha Stewart and jail time if you want to know more about that. 

Collusion in the market is another less well known practice, also known as “pump & dump” that has as many variations as Ponzi schemes and, though illegal, will never be stamped out. The technical terms for Colluding in relation to stock trading are “securities fraud” or “market manipulation.”

Not to get technical but here’s an partial excerpt of the legal specifics: 

15 U.S. Code § 78i – Manipulation of security prices

(a) – (2 To effect, alone or with 1 or more other persons, a series of transactions in any security registered on a national securities exchange, any security not so registered, or in connection with any security-based swap or security-based swap agreement with respect to such security creating actual or apparent active trading in such security, or raising or depressing the price of such security, for the purpose of inducing the purchase or sale of such security by others.

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/paramount/wolfofwallstreet/thewolfofwallstreet-tlr2_h1080p.mov

Read more: “GameStonks vs. Wall Street”: Heroes, Victims and Hogwash

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Subscribe to our newsletter for all the latest updates directly to your inBox.

Find books on Music, Movies & Entertainment and many other topics at our sister site: Cherrybooks on Bookshop.org

Enjoy Lynxotic at Apple News on your iPhone, iPad or Mac.

Lynxotic may receive a small commission based on any purchases made by following links from this page.

Breaking News, Business, Entertainment, Movies, Stock Market, Videos

Confused about GameStop, Robinhood, Reddit and Wall Street Bets? Check out the Big Short

Video

Stories from Past Crises can Reveal New Insights as we Encounter huge Challenges

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/paramount/thebigshort/thebigshort-onlinespot_h1080p.mov

The reality is sinking in, slowly, that the future is truly unknowable and that big changes and even bigger challenges are looming. Twin shocks of a health emergency and a financial crisis, intertwined and yet with separate trajectories, are still to be resolved in our near future.

Click to buy “The Big Short” 
and at the same time help Lynxotic 
and All Independent Local Bookstores. 
Also available on Amazon.

And then there’s the myriad of other challenges that were already acute, such as global warming and the “other” epidemic; corruption and greed. It’s almost too much to face up to, and no one can be blamed for wanting to just turn away.

Too much has been glossed over. After the 2008 crisis we all just wanted to put that ugly mess behind us and get on with our lives. I suppose the criminals that netted billions as a “reward” for almost destroying the entire global economy were also eager to just move on.

All that as it may be, perhaps, a way to begin the process of regaining our courage and looking into the future with some kind of hope, or at least a deeper understanding of the human dilemma and historical precedents, might be to enjoy films about small moments of triumph before great adversity. Here are a few recent options:

The Big Short

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/paramount/thebigshort/thebigshort-fte1_h1080p.mov

Barely 12 years ago, the financial collapse and ensuing “Great Recession” was a nightmare scenario. The aftermath of that debacle is also a contributor to the economic dangers we see before us in 2020. This film, likely the best based on that era, highlights how outsiders and misfits were able to prosper, even as they witnessed the corruption, failure and systemic injustice that brought the world to the brink of total economic chaos.

Starring: Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt.

Anthropocene: The Human Epoch

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/independent/anthropocene/anthropocene-trailer-1b_h1080p.mov
Click to buy “Antrhopocene” 
and at the same time help Lynxotic 
and All Independent Local Bookstores. 
Also available on Amazon.

For a bird’s-eye overview and scientific perspective – Athropocene is a film for those ready to think deeply on how, once beyond the immediate danger, we would want to emerge into a new era as a species. A positive reaction to the current crisis, worldwide, has been a series of ideas and proposals that show a willingness to confront the challenges from an entirely new perspective. Maybe new leadership can mean starting over and making a pledge to try a new approach to literally everything.

‘The film follows the research of an international body of scientists, the Anthropocene Working Group who, after nearly 10 years of research, argue that the Holocene Epoch gave way to the Anthropocene Epoch in the mid-twentieth century as a result of profound and lasting human changes to the Earth.”

Unbroken

https://movietrailers.apple.com/movies/universal/unbroken/unbroken-tlr2_h1080p.mov

Facing death constantly is a reality in war times. This story is a testament to resilience and survival against all odds.

Angelina Jolie directs this adaptation from Laura Hillenbrand’s popular book, “Unbroken” stars Jack O’Connell, Domhnall Gleeson, Alex Russell, Miyavi and Finn Wittrock

Cinderella Man

This Depression era feel-good story takes on new meaning as we see a “Great Depression II” potentially looming. Looking for strength and courage facing forces that threaten our survival, and coming out at the end in a better place, that’s a synopsis and blueprint we can all benefit from observing, even if it’s packaged as a Hollywood vehicle. Russel Crowe at his best. Maybe worth a second look.

Click to buy “Unbroken” 
and at the same time help Lynxotic 
and All Independent Local Bookstores. 
Also available on Amazon.

Enjoy Lynxotic at Apple News on your iPhone, iPad or Mac

Find books on Global Warming, Climate Change, Sustainable Energy and many other topics at our sister site: Cherrybooks on Bookshop.org

Lynxotic may receive a small commission based on any purchases made by following links from this page.

Breaking News, Entertainment, Observation, Stock Market

GameStop, Dogecoin, Robinhood and Stonks: What’s going on!? We’ve got the real answers here

Confusing? Yea, but at the bottom it all it’s just…(parody)

It you have followed any of the unfolding madness with the “retail investors” and the revolution of unstoppable market manipulation that is heroic, not criminal cause, um, the other guys (Wall Street) are much more criminal.

Read more: “GameStonks vs. Wall Street”

The problem is, it’s all true! Yes, the idea that pumping up GameStop, which is basically a random stock that was cheap and easy to pump. This is basically making a mockery of the traditional idea of investing and of the laws against stock manipulation. But the market is, as so many are pointing out, basically a sham already.

Read more: Elon Musk, AOC, GameStop, Robinhood, Short Selling Hedge Funds

A lot is made of the bad and nasty “shorts” who think that, just because GameStop is a company with basically no future prospects, they think the price would like, do down. Strange. That’s ok though, we can pump it up and the squeeze force the shorty shorts to cover (buy back shares) and that will send the price soaring.

short shorts by Tesla

Then we can all be like the Wolf of Wall Street, Jordan Belfort and also totally like The “Big Short” guy, Michael Burry, who was played by Christian Bale in the movie, and even though it was about going short, it’s sill ok, cause, Christian Bale.

2008 was bad and done by very bad people that got away with it

And yes, it’s pretty much all a nasty business. But the nasty pros are the worst. And the whole system is a sham. And, anyway 2008. Right. Maybe this is like occupy Wall Street but for real. Occupy it literally inside of the market. Where they live.

So, in a nutshell it’s a mockery of a sham. And a travesty. So it’s a mockery of a sham and a travesty.

Seriously., though, perhaps pumping cheap stocks from around 5-10$ up to $500 or higher by coordinated buying executed by internet mobs should be made legal. Each “investor” can jump in and out where-ever they choose and daisy-chain into the wealth that dreams are made of.

Universal basic is basically good, really good

Perhaps this can be the new government stimulus plan. Give every citizen a “free” stock buying app like Robinhood (but a new one cause we all hate those guys now) and have each account pre-loaded with, say, $1000.

Then let everyone know that it’s ok to join Reddit groups or watch TikTok stock market gurus and everyone, like a swarm of locusts can just pump a stock up to the moon and then sell and crash it and move on to the next one.

Naturally, it will be necessary to always start with a stock that is cheap so the early buyers can get really, really rich when the stock (who care what company it is, right?) goes up around 32,000% is, say, a week. That’d be good.

I am looking for how this casino of the common man would be worse that the current system, and it’s hard to find a flaw. Maybe read a book? Naw, just buy and buy and get rich with stonks forever. Amen.

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Find books on Music, Movies & Entertainment and many other topics at our sister site: Cherrybooks on Bookshop.org

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Lynxotic may receive a small commission based on any purchases made by following links from this page

Breaking News, Business, Stock Market

Picking up Quarters in front of a steam roller: Robinhood, GameStop and the Innocence of Ignorance

Tilting at Windmills as misnomers rule

Lots of confusion on all sides. There’s an internet storm brewing over the “injustice” of various entities – a ridiculous “free” trading app called, of all things “Robinhood”, the hedge funds who shorted an obviously overvalued stock. The army of short-squeezers who are screaming bloody murder that they were not able to cash in at the top (or commit Hari-kari by buying more the higher it goes).

Read more: Elon Musk, AOC, GameStop, Robinhood, Short Selling Hedge Funds

And then every pundit in the world sounding off – all the outrage and chaos with Ted Cruz & AOC & Elon Musk & Chris Cuomo & Mark Cuban and probably every celebrity in the world going nuts all at once by tomorrow and all sounding off like crazy over the “injustice”. Shake it up and shake in down.

Read more: Stonk Traders vs. Wall Street”: Heroes, Victims and Hogwash

The sheer volume of confusion over the “Robinhood Revolution” is staggering. Just wait it will be much, much worse. The depth of the ignorance is truly monumental.

Are there bad guys on “Wall Street”? Plenty. Are the google guys day traders that bid up a worthless stock to “burn” hedge funds and get rich quick heroes? Please.

https://twitter.com/RileyTaugor/status/1355005283622383617?s=20

And an App hilariously named “Robinhood” that charge phantom fees rather than stated charges (low, high or whatever) does no “stealing from the rich” and sure as hell no “giving to the poor”.

The good guys? Wanna buy the Brooklyn Bridge? I’ll sell you whichever one you want.

Traders and “Wall Street Insiders” know that danger is real. The idea of protecting “retail traders” from risk? As they tap into credit cards to buy worthless stocks that they believe they have a right to pump & dump?

And are they good guys cause they should be able to push the price of a stock endlessly higher for no reason whatsoever except that they get off on the letters from the ticker symbols that happen to sound similar to the ticker for a stock that Elon Musk did a two word tweet about (Signal, etc)?

Collusion and getting rich for doing basically nothing should be something that is available to everyone because criminals have gotten away with it left right and center?

That’s the solution? Solution to what problem exactly? And the big heroes are those who coin slogans such as “stocks only go up!”

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Breaking News, Business, Observation, Politics, Stock Market

Elon Musk, AOC, GameStop, Robinhood, Short Selling Hedge Funds: Fine People on all Sides!

Video

Short sellers and now Robinhood are getting critics of all stripes

Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote in a series of tweets Thursday a litany of anti-short thoughts, punctuated with “get shorty”. Also said he “absolutely” agrees with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY., that the House Financial Services Committee should launch an investigation into Robinhood because of stock trade restrictions that were put into place by the online app-based brokerage related to GameStop.

Read More:“GameStop vs. Wall Street”: Heroes, Victims and Hogwash

Always a master of viral expression, Musk famously marketed “short-shorts” as a dig at short sellers that he felt were unfairly targeting volatile Tesla stock moves. In the end, at least so far, he has always had the last laugh.

Robinhood is blocking “investors” from initiating new positions in GameStop, AMC Entertainment Holdings, American Airlines, BlackBerry Ltd., Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., Express Inc., Koss Corp., Naked Brand Group, Nokia Corp, Trivago, and Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. They are only permitting them to sell existing holdings. Margin requirements were also increased for various securities.

The actions likely have a two-fold justification, based on the situation. To protect Robinhood from litigation in the even, which is likely, that the stock will collapse and many novice “investors” will get hurt, and ostensibly, to protect the investors themselves.

Rep. Ocasio-Cortez stated: “We now need to know more about @RobinhoodApp’s decision to block retail investors from purchasing stock while hedge funds are freely able to trade the stock as they see fit.” And then added: As a member of the Financial Services Cmte, I’d support a hearing if necessary.

https://www.spacex.com/media/SN8_Website_03.mp4
video: SpaceX
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Business, Finance, Stock Market

“GameStonks vs. Wall Street”: Heroes, Victims and Hogwash

Above: Photo Collage / Lynxotic / Adobe Stock

The story that won’t stop and the very fine people on all sides

No heroes, plenty of villains and lots and lots of nonsense and stupidity. But before getting into the nuts and bolts of this tragic “new” phenomena, take a second and think about all those media stories, in nearly every online media outlet, even hitting local news.

Each “take” on the story has a different slant and spin and almost none go into the boring and complex technical details of stock trading schemes. Most, it appears, are cheering on, implicitly, the “main street” buyers in an imaginary “war” on Wall Street.

[Disclaimer: Nothing in this article should be construed as legal or financial advice.]

That will get you more clicks.

A few will point out that GameStop, the company that is, which has no real prospect to rise from its comatose state into a Tesla-like world beater, regardless of how high the stock climbs for a few weeks or so.

And they will, rightly, warn that in this game, the “innocent” main street “investor” will lose in the end. Those are the boring stories. Not as many clicks for them.

The longer more accurate story of what is going on touches on the Great Depression, the Dot-com bubble, the financial crisis of 2008 and an understanding of stock trading that goes beyond the patience threshold of the general public and the media, even beyond most so-called Wall Street Insiders.

History does exist, even if it happened before your uncle was born

Up until 1934 many things were legal and rampant that today, technically, are not allowed. Insider Trading is the most obvious and best defined, look up Martha Stewart and jail time if you want to know more about that.

Collusion in the market is another less well known practice, also known as “pump & dump” that has as many variations as Ponzi schemes and, though illegal, will never be stamped out. The technical terms for Colluding in relation to stock trading are “securities fraud” or “market manipulation.”

Not to get technical but here’s an partial excerpt of the legal specifics:

15 U.S. Code § 78i – Manipulation of security prices

(a) – (2 To effect, alone or with 1 or more other persons, a series of transactions in any security registered on a national securities exchange, any security not so registered, or in connection with any security-based swap or security-based swap agreement with respect to such security creating actual or apparent active trading in such security, or raising or depressing the price of such security, for the purpose of inducing the purchase or sale of such security by others.

Enter Reddit’s r/wallstreetbets forum. Not saying that there is anything illegal about “loving” a company as a group and choosing to “support” it by buying its shares.

Even if the motivation (false and imagined) is to “hurt” the short sellers in some kind of Robin Hood attack, that’s probably not something the SEC would care about. Short selling professionals can take care of themselves.

Enter another part of history: the allegedly overvalued company effect

Attacking short sellers has become a kind of sport, particularly when it’s about an emotional connection that was partly responsible for a company’s shares being “overvalued” by traditional metrics in the first place. Once “overvalued” therefore, a target to be sold short by traders and hedge funds that believe in quaint things like profit to earnings ratios and the like.

While company’s share prices being “overvalued” is based on opinion and often wrong, there have been recent cases, since the NASDAQ bubble burst in 2000, that have added a somewhat new, larger, twist on the typical understanding of these types of situations.

Bubble is as bubble does

To take the biggest example, there is Amazon (AMZN) which would take a thousand page book to accurately and fully elaborate on, but for the sake of brevity a couple of points could be made.

It is well known that Amazon posted substantial losses for many years while the stock price generally continued to rise. This was attributed to shareholders’ willingness to forgo proof of financial success within the company and persisted in buying & holding in the hope that share prices would continue to rise and that the company eventually would show profits and more success.

All of that seemed to happen, in the case of Amazon, when viewed casually, and now there is a sense, among some, that overvaluation, in “outlier” cases, is no longer a valid reason to sell (or short) a stock. Everybody’s happy right?

The uses of inflated value is a sticky-wicket if you are the loser

Not everybody. Naturally there are many “bad” short sellers who likely lost by shorting Amazon during it’s unrelenting rise since 2000. They are unlikely happy.

But also, and here’s the rub, there were whole industries crushed by the power that came with that “over-valued” stock price that seems, from looking at reams of data, to have been used to finance the selling of goods at substantial losses for “as long as it takes” to damage competitors.

Ultimately, for Amazon, creating a possibly dangerous monopoly (or monopsony, as it were) position with the potential for further damage to not just competition, and the overall marketplace, but to society as a whole.

This is, of course, opinion but ask, if you will, the various agencies in charge of anti-trust actions for further concurring opinions.

Tesla is a whole other story, but a completely unique one

However, the situation is clearly not black and white. An alternate opinion could be held regarding the similar, yet very different, situation at Tesla (TSLA). Short interest throughout the rise? Absolutely. Overvaluation by traditional metrics, yup.

But in this case there is both a technological argument to be made, as well as a geopolitical / moral one, that the company’s wider mission: “Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy” is a more than valid justification for wanting to support the company, in any way possible, including through the purchase of it’s purportedly overvalued shares.

That kind of goodwill is the x-factor that is now being twisted into a justification for pumping GameStop (GME) into the stratosphere, beyond the kind of overvaluations that either Amazon or Tesla ever enjoyed (and that’s saying a lot!) while downplaying the “dump” part of the “pump & dump” scenario.

Of course here’s the tragic part; the dump phase always comes, and in reality, is the whole point. Next… ooopsy, while writing this the dump started with GME in the form of a drop from around $500 per share to $226.

For a sub-$20 stock, of course, that’s still extremely high and there will no doubt be gyrations in both directions before the final drop back to obscurity.

Twas ever thus, but still not nice

But the tragedy is in the idea, bandied about in the media and amplified in social media infinitely, that there are “Robin Hood” actors in this game (not the company but the dude in the forest in the movie).

In the end there may be a few that knew all along that “dump” was an integral and necessary part of pump & dump and I am sure there will be plenty of celebration of their “genius” exploits.

But the focus from any of us in the media should be at the tragedy of those that got lost in the hype and stupidity and chose to offer themselves up to the gods of GameStop, the market and Reddit’s r/wallstreetbets as cannon fodder:

”I was in my early teens during the ’08 crisis. I vividly remember the enormous repercussions that the reckless actions by those on Wall Street had in my personal life, and the lives of those close to me. I was fortunate – my parents were prudent and a little paranoid, and they had some food storage saved up. When that crisis hit our family, we were able to keep our little house, but we lived off of pancake mix, and powdered milk, and beans and rice for a year. Ever since then, my parents have kept a food storage, and they keep it updated and fresh.”

”I bought shares a few days ago. I dumped my savings into GME, paid my rent for this month with my credit card, and dumped my rent money into more GME (which for the people here at WSB, I would not recommend). And I’m holding. This is personal for me, and millions of others.”

”You can drop the price of GME after hours $120, I’m not going anywhere. You can pay for thousands of reddit bots, I’m holding. You can get every mainstream media outlet to demonize us, I don’t care. I’m making this as painful as I can for you”.

ssauron on Reddit
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Emphasis mine

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Observation, Stock Market

Opinion: With Trump in the Rear-view we are shifting to the Economy, Corona and Climate

The wheels are already spinning towards new challenges brought on by Trump’s actions

With so many challenges facing the US and, in many ways the entire world, even as the bizarre political drama recedes, it may be hard to find even a moment of neutral footing before the next crisis phase begins.

In fact it is in the most “positive” areas, endlessly touted as a triumph, where the first fireworks could be set off. Although many believe that the stock market is in a bubble phase, as extreme if not more extreme than either the “dot-com crash” of 2000 or the real estate collapse on 2008, this is truly the first time a bubble was inflated during a time when a triple threat – political, medical and climate emergencies, was in various phases of unfolding at the same time.

But it’s the forth “leg”, the lone bright spot as it has seems, that could carry a very big danger. With the pandemic still not showing any signs of abating, although there are vaccines being distributed, and the political madness of 2020 looking to begin to fade (at least partially), it is the possibility that the stock market bubble finding it’s “pin” that could trigger the next challenge to Biden and the country as a whole.

Perhaps the various stimulus funds being planned for dissemination can postpone any reckoning for at least a few months, but if that is not the case the situation could become extremely dangerous very quickly.

How the current stock market climate compares to 1999 and 2007

Looking back at the history of both of those bubble-crash cycles there are some notable differences. But there are far more similarities. All the various sentiment metrics and herding behaviors are present in forms, just as extreme, potentially more so.

The actual peak may be in the future, as SPAC entities are joining with traditional VCs to ride the avalanche of FED funds flooding into the money supply.

As was the case in 1999 there’s a momentum – a reflexivity as George Soros termed it, that begins as a smooth wave and eventually a tsunami of self-perpetuating belief in the absurd.

That moment could already have come and gone, it’s only in retrospect that the over-heated irrational exuberance becomes obvious to all. Perhaps the folly of WeWork will be the pastor child, or perhaps something that is just now happening.

Once the tsunami hits the shore, however, it will make landfall on an already devastated geography. After four years of corruption and devastating lock-downs (underplayed just enough to extend the misery) and so many challenges and messes to clean up, there will be a shock to the financial system that is unlike anything seen in 2000 and 2008.

A trillion plus dollar bail out after several (three?) have already been set in motion for other rescues and attempts to reinvigorate the economy, will be a hard and dangerous method to use, although it “worked” in the first two bubble-crash scenarios.

The big picture may look endless grim but the hope is in the change

Without a doubt the one thing that would like arise from such a nightmare scenario, similarly to the pandemic and the climate crisis, is that deep and irreversible change on a massive scale will be needed to begin a new phase of recovery.

Just as there’s a “bottoming out” that has to happen when a person finally confronts addictions and other self-destructive behaviors, humankind as a whole will be forced to make severe and lasting changes in order to overcome what will seem like an escalation of woe, at precisely the moment that a happy, sunny return to “normal” is anticipated

While all of this sounds dire, there are few today, who are paying attention, who would not say that massive change is needed. In politics, in business, in the economy, in healthcare and, of yes, in our response to existence level threats such as the climate crisis, we need, more than anything else to change.

Perhaps a downturn in a fantasy filled stock market bubble is just the pin prick that we need to wash away the negative trends of the past and begin from a new perspective that recognizes just how different our organizing principals need to be, as a species, in order to not only survive, but to do so in abundance.

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