The Convention may be Canned and Pre-recorded but the Passion and the Mission is Real…
This is not 2016. It is not 1933. This is 2020 and the plot is still being written as we speak. Will Trump manage to find a way to “rig” the election by suppressing the vote? Will he order his goons from Homeland Security to put us all down so that he can keep his job and stay out of jail? Will he use the courts and every trick he has learned to delay his defeat while he searches for a way to stop the democratic process from removing him? The answer is unknown. But what is known is that you can be an important part of the answer that history is is awaiting.
During the last four years it seems like there has been a never-ending escalation of cruelty, stupidity, ineptitude and evil emanating from the White House. Most of us have been disgusted by it and have wished for a way to make it stop and go away forever. The impeachment and the Mueller Report gave some people the idea that somehow there might be some form of justice coming, some kind of reckoning.
We all know that that the reckoning did not come. Yet. In many ways the opposite did. The cruel, stupid evil banality of Donald Trump blanketed the US like a snow covered morning with slime and corruption oozing over all of us instead of pure white snow. The feeling has been nearly unbearable.
That is all going to change – one way or another. Soon. There’s an election coming. Either that or something much more dramatic. Let’s hope for the Post Office to function just enough to get us through this. Go in person if you can, as Michelle Obama emphasized in her riveting, inspirational speech last night.
The way is clear and the job is set. A turnout so large and so virulently anti-Trump will be needed to make sure that there is zero chance that this man can spend even one second longer than legally mandated in the office he holds due to a mistake of history.
“But let’s be clear: going high does not mean putting on a smile and saying nice things when confronted by viciousness and cruelty. Going high means taking the harder path. It means scraping and clawing our way to that mountain top. Going high means standing fierce against hatred while remembering that we are one nation under God, and if we want to survive, we’ve got to find a way to live together and work together across our differences”.
MIchele Obama at DNC 2020
View the video above featuring Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, Bruce Springsteen and people just like you. Listen to the speeches and think about what is being said. Then get anyone and everyone involved and enlist help if you need it or give help – this is an emergency situation that can not be taken lightly. Until the election is decided and the way is clear, this is the only story that matters.
“the future of our democracy is at stake, the future of our economy is at stake, the future of our planet is at stake. We must come together to defeat Donald Trump and elect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as our next president and vice president. My friends, the price of failure is just too great to imagine”.
Bernie Sanders at DNC 2020
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The case for looking behind the Swiss-cheese curtain at the “wizard of lies” and his wannabe mafia
Who would like, believe, much less admire or even trust a man like Michael Cohen? If you are a Trump supporter he is a rat and was rightly relegated to the shadows even in the best of times. If you are a Democrat or a liberal or a Biden supporter, or let’s just say it, a Trump hater , Never-Trumper or a member of the RVAT, why would you believe the guy who was, by his own admission, a dirty, criminal, perjury committing low life?
“…permit me to make a point: If you only read stories written by people you like, you will never be able to understand Donald Trump or the current state of the American soul. More than that, it’s only by actually understanding my decisions and actions that you can get inside Trump’s mind and understand his worldview.”
– Michael Cohen in forward to “Disloyal”
And now he (Cohen) is suddenly and permanently a paragon of virtue? Or at least no longer an “eager and willing” liar for a wannabe dictator?
Then again, as Cohen argues himself in his just released book excerpt, isn’t it always necessary to talk to and believe criminals, liars and “bad guys” in order to incriminate and convict a Mafia Don? Aren’t they, often after they are in witness protection and protective custody, the ones whose testimony is essential to finding out the true actions and character of the bosses and Capo dei capi?
From golden showers in a sex club in Vegas, to tax fraud, to deals with corrupt officials from the former Soviet Union, to catch and kill conspiracies to silence Trump’s clandestine lovers, I wasn’t just a witness to the president’s rise—I was an active and eager participant.”
Click to order “Disloyal” and help Lynxotic. Also available at Amazon
…As anyone in law enforcement will tell you, it’s only gangsters who can reveal the secrets of organized crime. If you want to know how the mob really works, you’ve got to talk to the bad guys. I was one of Trump’s bad guys. In his world, I was one hundred percent a made man.
While Cohen openly refers to himself as a “keystone cop” and the “Trump Mafia”, to the degree that such a thing exists, is more like a tragicomic almost childish attempt to emulate the Italian-american organized crime structure and behavior, as depicted in movies and folklore. Nevertheless the rise of this “buffoon” to the Presidency is a grave and serious matter, one that is now threatening us all.
Looking at Trump’s history of legal and illegal behavior, and the attempts by the US Justice system to rein him in, one sees a legal strategy of using an eminence front and a claim of innocence due to ignorance and incompetence. This was a major thread, along with the cries of “witch hunt”, in his attempts to avoid any consequences for the alleged collusion with Russia during the 2016 election. Cohen hits this point head on:
Both sides were wrong. I knew that the reality was much more complicated and dangerous. Trump had colluded with the Russians, but not in the sophisticated ways imagined by his detractors. I also knew that the Mueller investigation was not a witch-hunt. Trump had cheated in the election, with Russian connivance, as you will discover in these pages, because doing anything—and I mean anything—to “win” has always been his business model and way of life.
…Trump had also continued to pursue a major real estate deal in Moscow during the campaign. He attempted to insinuate himself into the world of President Vladimir Putin and his coterie of corrupt billionaire oligarchs. I know because I personally ran that deal and kept Trump and his children closely informed of all updates, even as the candidate blatantly lied to the American people saying, “there’s no Russian collusion, I have no dealings with Russia…there’s no Russia.”
For anyone who has viewed the recent Netflix series “Fear City: New York vs. the Mafia” the story is a familiar one: the code of silence makes the mafia immune to prosecution, other than low level crimes by “soldiers” while the bosses and the “godfather” are untouchable. Ultimately the use of the R.I.C.O. statute and, most importantly, audio bugging and recordings are combined to finally crack and dismantle organized crime.
Similarly, the famous tapes that ultimately brought down Nixon illustrate how an insulated boss can only be caught red handed via a “smoking gun”, in the form of an audio tape recording of a careless private “confession” of an overt criminal act.
“The President of the United States wanted me dead. Or, let me say it the way Donald Trump would: He wouldn’t mind if I was dead. That was how Trump talked. Like a mob boss, using language carefully calibrated to convey his desires and demands, while at the same time employing deliberate indirection to insulate himself and avoid actually ordering a hit on his former personal attorney, confidant, consigliere, and, at least in my heart, adopted son.”
Unfortunately, Trump and his keystone cop mafia saw all the movies and know the anecdotal accounts of the fall of Nixon, and so on. According to Cohen, this led Trump to create a system of plausible deniability through the use of euphemism and facial expressions, almost as if audio surveillance was considered a “given” and this new-age code of silence was elevated to an integral part of the criminal culture and way of life.
Cohen, of all people, was the perfect fall-guy to carry out these unspoken, deniable orders as his mission in life, right up until he turned on his idol:
“…I’m certain that Trump knows he will face prison time if he leaves office, the inevitable cold Karma to the notorious chants of “Lock Her Up!” But that is the Trump I know in a nutshell. He projects his own sins and crimes onto others, partly to distract and confuse but mostly because he thinks everyone is as corrupt and shameless and ruthless as he is; a poisonous mindset I know all too well.
”…I see the men who have replaced me and continue to forfeit their reputations by doing the President’s bidding, no matter how dishonest or sleazy or unlawful. Rudy Guiliani, William Barr, Jared Kushner and Mike Pompeo are Trump’s new wannabe fixers, sycophants willing to distort the truth and break the law in the service of the Boss”…
“Given my experience working for Mr. Trump, I fear that if he loses the election in 2020 that there will never be a peaceful transition of power,” I concluded. “This is why I agreed to appear before you today.”
– Michael Cohen, in testimony before Congress
The book is available for pre-order and will be released on September 8th, 2020. It is already sitting at #1 on the bestseller list.
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Each of the big four have new strategies to diversify into each other’s garden
‘This is the beginning of the end of Big Tech as we know it’ according to professor Scott Galloway and the Big Tech giants are well aware of this fact. Unsurprisingly, they are already at work to undermine one another and find ways to grab pieces of each other’s pies.
Where one has a stranglehold, such as Amazon does based on the sheer size and breath of its 3rd party marketplace, another, such as Google, will look for a way to gain a foothold, no matter how small, as the winds of change rise in Washington and among the public.
Amazon’s dominance is based on its virtual monopoly in eCommerce transactions, which is itself, a result of “bribing” customers with below wholesale prices on hot items, giving the customer the illusion of an unbeatable deal site.
The strategy is powerful for obvious reasons (unless you are a foreign exporter to the US, then it is illegal). Who doesn’t like to pay below wholesale prices with “free” shipping (if you pay for Prime)? A second benefit of this strategy (also potentially against antitrust laws) is that no competitor can afford to use a similar strategy unless they want to go bankrupt in short order.
Enter another untouchable giant: Google. Since it’s Google Shopping and other eCommerce search features struggle based on the unbeatable system Amazon has devised (even as Google commands 91.75% of search traffic), the only way to get a jump on the game is to fight back in kind. Bribe somebody. Fortunately for the US economy, truth and justice, this time the parties to be enticed are the 3rd party sellers.
With fees for 3rd party sales on Amazon rising as high as 30% in some cases, even as Amazon competes directly against those small businesses (“internal competitors” in Amazonian parlance), Google’s new idea of a zero commission structure just might gain some traction.
Already under fire for rigging search results to favor itself, Google is doubling down, in a sense, via drastically lowering fees for 3rd party sellers to use Google Shopping to get direct sales from Shopify or other non-Amazon sources.
Since Amazon’s fees can approach 30% for some lower cost items (such as books) this will be a powerful incentive for sellers to shift focus away from Amazon’s predatoryfee structure and to a platform that potentially could bring in sales with less cost to the seller (and therefore a better end value to the buyer).
Change is welcome, especially at zero percent
Google is offering zero commission listing and, in a big announcement, also currently charging zero, in the US, for the “buy on google” checkout system. This is in the process of expanding and rolling out, and, potentially, by the fall and holiday season, could provide an interesting shift in how small business can operate online.
Walmart started allowing 3rd party sellers onto its online store several years ago but, recently, kicked that process into overdrive with a new system that allows all Shopifyaccounts the choice to sell on Walmart.com via a direct link between the two.
Bookshop.org, with whom Lynxotic is affiliated via our sister site Cherrybooks.org, is also a company that is attempting to break the stranglehold Amazon has had on online book sales. Surprisingly successful already, its B Corp non-profit-like structure and alliances with independent bookstores has exploded. Affiliate advertising from huge media companies such as the New York Times have climbed on board and the largest book distributor in the US is a partner for fulfillment. Bookshop.Org has been able to put a tiny dent in the largest, most powerful competitor imaginable, showing, perhaps, that there are cracks emerging in the corrupt business models of these giants and they are not 100% invulnerable after all.
Apple will expose the worst of predatory surveillance by Facebook, Amazon and Google with new privacy features
While wrong is wrong regardless of the perpetrator, when it comes to gargantuan tech behemoths, a company with a clearly defined mission such as Apple or Tesla are in a different category than Amazon, Facebook and Google.
While Tesla’s stated mission is to “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy” and Apple’s original mission statement, written by Steve Jobs was “to make a contribution to the world by making tools for the mind that advance humankind”, predatory vultures hide behind ridiculous slogans like “aim to be Earth’s most customer centric company” (while decimating partners and competitors by any means necessary) and “don’t be evil” (don’t get caught) and “to give people the power to build community and bring the world closer together” (…all while stealing data for profit from every person on earth).
Click to See “Steve Jobs“ and to help Lynxotic and Independent Bookstores. Also Available on Amazon.
It’s just not the same – particularly as Steve Jobs, while at Apple, pushed himself and his company to invent and build many powerful examples of “tools for the mind” and Elon Musk’s Tesla brought the electric car back from the dead (after it was nearly snuffed out by big oil) and is making incredible headway in revolutionizing battery and solar technology, all with a view to literally save the planet from a climate catastrophe.
Bezos? Became the richest living human via the destruction of millions of small business and jobs all while undercutting competitors by selling virtually anything he got his hands on at a significant loss; simply to cause the demise of any competitor or partner that might threaten his rise to idiotically massive personal wealth.
Zuckerberg? Pioneered ways to suck data from virtually every human with a view to monetizing every living soul exclusively for himself and his company. Illustration? Dividing Facebook’s market cap by the number of employees it has yields the sum of $14,906,500.00 per employee. Macy’s? That’d be $16,829. (Thanks to Scott Galloway for the numbers)
Google merely owns (91.75% as of June 2020) the search entryway to all web sites. It decides if you should or should not find them. If it can boost profits by hiding one and featuring another, either through “paid search” or by pointing you toward its own properties while hiding competitors from you, it will do exactly that. Ask the European Union’s anti-trust investigators. For them, this company is a convicted law breaker.
Announced at WWDC 2020, Apple is adding serious features to its various new operating systems. One big feature in Safari is the ability to track, and block as desired, all manner of data intrusions. These are not only identified, but shown and tracked and analyzed with a kind of professional dashboard, showing just how invasive and persistent these invisible spies are.
Apple is big, with more than 1.4 billion devices. Starting in around 2021 they will all be able to identify and block data surveillance by Amazon (the largest of all spies), Google and Facebook, among others. Thanks that’s not a big deal? Think again.
…the overall stance being taken regarding online tracking and surveillance should be seen for what it is: the first step to correcting the mistake of history that allowed the internet to be kidnapped and held hostage by a handful of companies that pretend to be “free” or “customer obsessed” while they are, in fact, Robber Barons that make the Standard Oil monopoly look like Santa Claus.
– D.L.
Tracking the Trackers will Change Your Life
Tracking the trackers is a clear and aggressive privacy stance, taken by the one company among the big four, that does not have a huge stake in you being the victim of online surveillance and tracking.
Not to say that Apple is blameless. Many are complaining about its fee structure for software sold by third parties via the app stores. While this issue is certainly a valid one, the overall stance being taken regarding online tracking and surveillance should be seen for what it is: the first step to correcting the mistake of history that allowed the internet to be kidnapped and held hostage by a handful of companies that pretend to be “free” or “customer obsessed” while they are, in fact, Robber Barons that make the Standard Oil monopoly look like Santa Claus.
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Virtually every day a targeted feature or software change is announced in an attempt to damage the monopoly next door
Competition is the cornerstone of capitalism. Except, sometimes, when monopolies take hold. This week CEO’s of the largest tech firms will be grilled (or at least questioned) on just how each of them got so big, and why they should not be broken up or regulated, in order to improve competition in the online marketplace that is now the world’s lifeblood.
The mistake of history that allowed Google, Amazon and Facebook to emerge from the dot-com era of zero profit companies as winner-take-all trillion dollar behemoths is finally being questioned by the masses, which has led to government investigation and inquiry.
Click to See “Goliath“ and to help Lynxotic and Independent Bookstores. Also Available on Amazon.
Apple was not founded during the 90s, actually produces products and does not rely on the monetization of user data as it’s main revenue generator; it does not sell below cost in a loss-leader system designed to cripple any competition and has a completely different business ethos, all of which separates the three mentioned above into a different category for this writer.
Nevertheless, in a world where giants from an earlier time are dwarfed by the sheer size and power of these 4 (Microsoft and Tesla are excluded from this article since each has its own backstory and are best looked at separately), a situation has arisen where only one giant has the power to even touch, let alone threaten, another giant.
There are many ways that these giants have always fought one another, yet as they staked out territories and empires, there seemed to be, at times, a tacit agreement that the domain of one would not be violated by another, like an unspoken mafia code or territorial claim.
Those lines between the giants are getting blurry as a silent siege is building and those previously “untouchable” areas of commerce are being targeted.
The fight may be about dollars in the end, but it is the essential control of data and user behavior that leads to all power, and therefore value and income. And each giant has staked a claim to a method or means to control and influence the behavior of billions of eyeballs and souls. Any change in that status quo is a big deal for these entrenched companies, and potentially good news for small businesses and consumers who are, without a doubt, little more than victims of the current insanely evil system.
Those lines between the giants are getting blurry as a silent siege is building and those previously “untouchable” areas of commerce are being targeted.
– D.L.
Here are a few of the new fronts where this hidden and secret battle is being fought:
Google Shopping, following Walmart, is trying to lure 3rd party sellers and sales away from Amazon
Already under fire for rigging search results to favor itself, Google is doubling down, in a sense, via drastically lowering fees for 3rd party sellers to use Google Shopping to get direct sales from Shopify or other non-Amazon sources.
Since Amazon’s fees can approach 30% for some lower cost items (such as books) this will be a powerful incentive for sellers to shift focus away from Amazon’s predatory fee structure and to a platform that potentially could bring in sales with less cost to the seller (and therefore a better end value to the buyer).
Google is offering zero commission listing and, in a big announcement, also currently charging zero, in the US, for the “buy on google” checkout system. This is in the process of expanding and rolling out, and, potentially, by the fall and holiday season, could provide an interesting shift in how small business can operate online.
Walmart started allowing 3rd party sellers onto its online store several years ago but, recently, kicked that process into overdrive with a new system that allows all Shopify accounts the choice to sell on Walmart.com via a direct link between the two.
Bookshop.org, with whom Lynxotic is affiliated via our sister site Cherrybooks.org, is also a company that is attempting to break the stranglehold Amazon has had on online book sales. Surprisingly successful already, with its B Corp non-profit-like structure and alliances with independent bookstores sale have exploded. Affiliate advertising from huge media companies such as the New York Times have climbed on board and the largest book distributor in the US is a partner for fulfillment. Bookshop.Org has been able to put a tiny dent in the largest, most powerful competitor imaginable, showing, perhaps, that there are cracks emerging in the corrupt business models of these giants and they are not 100% invulnerable after all.
Apple’s iOS 14 and iPad OS 14 (along with mac 11 OS Big Sur) will begin to break Google’s search monopoly with direct links in Safari and Spotlight
For companies wanting to bring traffic and customers to their web sites for many years there has been only one very big game available, so-called SEO. SEO stands for Search Engine Optimization which refers in the words “search” and “engine” to one that controls over 90% of search traffic: Google (91.75% as of June 2020).
So it could be called GEO or just GO for Google Optimization. And this is a massive industry in and of itself.
Click to See “Steve Jobs“ and to help Lynxotic and Independent Bookstores. Also Available on Amazon.
Increasingly, however, this monopoly is also being challenged. Not only in Europe where massive fines against the search giant have been levied, but in the growing options for sites to be found in ways other than qualifying for a first page placement (paid for or otherwise) in Googles search results.
Soon, for the billion + apple device users worldwide, there will be a new way to find news sources and other web sites. Both search in Safari and Spotlight, which is the device level search system on iPhone, iPad and Mac computers, will soon have results that link directly to the source, bypassing google in the process.
This is a small statement but will have a huge effect in the real world. The reason is simple but mind-blowing: a search result choice not controlled by google, available on one billion plus devices, has the potential to begin to break the monopoly, and Google’s ability (and how much) to charge for the privilege of being found through its search results.
How the Apple search results are generated and what companies would be featured in those direct results is as yet unknown and may never be released (like Google’s proprietary algorithm). The emergence of ASO (Apple Search Optimization) notwithstanding, just the fact that there is a new player presenting new opportunities for news outlets and eCommerce companies to be found by Apple device owners, is very interesting news indeed.
Apple will expose the worst of predatory surveillance by Facebook, Amazon and Google with new privacy features
Announced at WWDC 2020, the new operating systems are coming with serious features that track, and block as desired, all manner of data intrusions. These are not only identified, but shown and tracked and analyzed with a kind of professional dashboard, showing just how invasive and persistent these invisible spies are.
…the overall stance being taken regarding online tracking and surveillance should be seen for what it is: the first step to correcting the mistake of history that allowed the internet to be kidnapped and held hostage by a handful of companies that pretend to be “free” or “customer obsessed” while they are, in fact, Robber Barons that make the Standard Oil monopoly look like Santa Claus.
– D.L.
Tracking the trackers is a clear and aggressive privacy stance, taken by the one company among the big four, that does not have a huge stake in you being the victim of online surveillance and tracking.
Not to say that Apple is blameless. Many are complaining about its fee structure for software sold by third parties via the app stores. While this issue is certainly a valid one, the overall stance being taken regarding online tracking and surveillance should be seen for what it is: the first step to correcting the mistake of history that allowed the internet to be kidnapped and held hostage by a handful of companies that pretend to be “free” or “customer obsessed” while they are, in fact, Robber Barons that make the Standard Oil monopoly look like Santa Claus.
Above: Photo / Bansky
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We are seeing Hourly Newsflashes as Trump tests his ability to send a “private” militia into American cities under the fabricated necessity of countering of “threats” to federal buildings.
The recent and unfolding events in Portland and the real threats of using similar force and tactics across the US represent a new level of crisis for this election year. A false narrative with exaggerated so-called “threats” to buildings by groups of, in reality, peaceful protesters who are being labeled criminals, terrorists and are at times suffering beatings, tear gas and even kidnapping, all at the hands of unidentified federal agents.
There has been an extreme and seemingly panicked barrage of fabricated emergencies all centered around the continued, mostly peaceful, protests originally ignited by the murder of George Floyd and the BLM focused demonstrations that followed.
Trump has blamed “violent anarchists” who he claims are part of the “radical left” and are allied with Democrats, and that these vaguely designated groups have created “a shocking explosion of shootings, killings, murders and heinous crimes of violence.”
With the false bravado of a man enamored with his own fantasy of power he intoned: “This bloodshed must end,” and “This bloodshed will end.”
Many who believe in American Democracy are left searching for these crimes and this emergency, and where exactly the connections are that, somehow show, the “radical left” is behind any violent crimes. Further, crimes that are more obviously, to the degree that crimes are being committed at all, being committed by a scattered and relatively small group of unaffiliated individuals.
Instead, it is the trumped-up response which appears to rational observers to be an attempt to provoke the very “crimes” that he has vowed to stop (and which he has imagined or exaggerated for the purpose of political theater). And further, from all appearances, there is a coordinated effort by the federal government, led by Bill Barr and various unconfirmed “interim” or “acting” department heads, to create a coterie of paramilitary forces that can be used by Trump to act with physical force and violence in any way he sees fit.
As this bizarre and unprecedented attack on democracy is unfolding, even republican, right wing, former members of the conservative establishment are shocked. Here are some recent quotes and headlines:
“For a President and an administration that calls itself ‘law and order,’ they have broken the law, and are creating disorder.”
Fmr. Sec. of State Madeleine Albright
“What is really at stake is the delegitimizing of Democrats altogether before the 2020 election. Today Jenna Ellis, senior legal adviser to the Trump campaign and one of Trump’s personal lawyers tweeted: “No Democrat should EVER AGAIN be elected in the United States in any capacity.”
So Tom Ridge, another homeland security secretary under Bush, has also opened fire, noting that DHS’s mission is to protect against “global terrorism” and was “not established to be the president’s personal militia.” “It would be a cold day in hell before I would consent to a unilateral, uninvited intervention into one of my cities,” Ridge told Michael Smerconish.
“That kind of activity is the activity of a police state, and this president and this attorney general seem to be doing everything they possibly can to impose Gestapo activities in local communities, and that is what I have been warning about for a long time. I do believe that this election is all about the preservation of the greatest democracy that this country has ever known,” Clyburn said Monday during an interview on CNN.
South Carolina Rep. John Clyburn
“I think it’s unconstitutional and dangerous and heading towards fascism,” he said.
Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro
And not not-senate-confirmed “acting” Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security had this general response:
“DHS is answering the President’s call to use our law enforcement personnel across the country to protect our historic landmarks. We won’t stand idly by while violent anarchists and rioters seek not only to vandalize and destroy the symbols of our nation, but to disrupt law and order and sow chaos in our communities.”
Acting DHS Secretary Chad F. Wolf
Hitler, Mussolini and Trump: a short glance at historical similarities
Hitler
In the early 1920s, long before Hitler was in power in Germany, he was a politician with a need for bodyguards. In addition, his newly formed Nazi party encouraged followers to commit violent attacks against leftists and outsiders (jews). The SA a.k.a. the brown shirts were a personal militia comprised of violent thugs attacking whoever Hitler designated as the enemy of his vision for Germany. By 1933, there were over 3 million members.
Violent attacks occurred often against any individuals or group that dared to disagree with Hitler’s politics or were just among the declared enemies, with Jews and leftists at the top of the list. Through the physical intimidation of individuals and opposing political groups, his rise to power, in steps, was made possible.
The idea that a political movement “needs” a violent para-military component is a common thread in the history of various fascist dictators and their rise to power. Designating political enemies as “terrorists” (such as Trump is trying to do to antifa). Encouraging violence against them, using a justification of “safety and protection” of the general public that supposedly sides with the “vision of law and order” put forth by the would be dictator is a common theme from Hitler’s rise that we are also seeing today.
Mussolini
Similar to Hitler’s “BrownShirts”, Mussolini had his “Blackshirts”. The similarities between Hitler’s rise and that of Mussolini are well documented. Mussolini’s blueprint for Fascist power was later repeated in Germany, if the similarities being coincidental or by design is unimportant.
Racism, hatred of foreigners (in Italy’s case the prime scapegoats being Africans and Asians to the south and east) and violent intimidation of anyone who questions his and his parties authority were the familiar script.
The similarities to the present day are the grave and serious issue, and the differences are what will decide our fate.
Trump
Unlike in the fascism stories above, Trump is already the elected President and the “leader of the free world”. It is important to note that “free” in that phrase means, among other things, free from fascist dictatorships. On the other hand, the recent events in portland and elsewhere show a serious and dangerous precedent where Trump is using the DHS and it’s “acting” director as if they are his version of the SA or even SS.
Perhaps the Gestapo is a more apt analogy, but there’s an element of this being a cobbled together band of thugs like the brown or blackshirts mentioned above as this was, apparently, a hastily crafted group of federal agencies that appear to have been gathered by Attorney General Bill Barr, rather than an organized long standing secret police force.
Unidentified stormtroopers. Unmarked cars. Kidnapping protesters and causing severe injuries in response to graffiti.
These are not the actions of a democratic republic.@DHSgov’s actions in Portland undermine its mission.
The consensus among those who would rather not see Trump find a way to take control of the US as a modern day Mussolini is that many, if not all, of the steps and actions taken thus far are dead wrong, even if they represent a convoluted way to break the intended spirit of US law and Constitution while maintaining a kind of shadow legality.
The now clichéd quote, famously from a John F Kennedy in a speech in 1961: “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing” nevertheless applies here to all men, women and children of this country.
An astounding thing about the historical tragedies surrounding the fascists rising to power in the first half of the 20th century is that, early on, when they could still have been stopped by a sufficiently outraged majority, the dangers were underestimated until it was too late.
“Never again” should be our response to that statement and we must be prepared to back it up, no matter what.
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The Naked Display of Abandon in Shanghai was a Signal to The Next Generation
It’s not because Tesla’s stock is at a high. It’s not because SpaceX is passing milestone after milestone. Elon Musk is on a mission, and it’s the same one we all need to be on, starting now: to save the world.
There’s a kind of liberation in facing death, like the movie protagonist racing in a stolen car, chased by the killer bad guy, not worried about the tires or how much fuel is being used: it’s adrenaline pumping survival mode, right here, right now.
And yet, with the metaphorical woman of his dreams (who is actually us and the planet) in the passenger seat, the protagonist, and all of us vicariously, feels more alive, in what could be his final moments, than in all his life to this point.
That’s why he’s dancing.
Many say 2019 was the year that the Climate Crisis, formerly known as global warming, could no longer be doubted by any sane or unbiased person. A few dozen catastrophic, clearly anomalous weather events will do that.
And now, as the new decade dawns, Australia burns and #WWIII trends on Twitter, we are all starting to feel like we are in that stolen car.
Elon Musk is a little different from the rest of us. Not because of his money or success or brains or celebrity. Because he has been on this mission for practically his entire life.
And now we need to join him.
Tesla is and always has been on a mission. Not to “dominate” the EV sector of the auto industry, as is so often written. Not to achieve success as measured by profit or cash flow positions. It’s on an energy mission . See it’s stated for all to see on its twitter account:
So many constantly trumpet the refrain that solving the climate crisis is all about austerity and sacrifice, and certainly there will be plenty of that.
And the deniers say that changing the system is not worth it if there is even a minuscule chance that we are not doomed. Really? How much Exxon stock do you own ? But what it will really take is a revolution in thought and the contagious motivation of an entire generation. And humans are not prophylactically inclined !
It’s Elon Musk and Tesla’s genius, shared with Apple that they understand that you can change the world if people are moved by aspirational, beautiful, sexy dreams of a better life. Not some granola style golf cart of functionality.
An iPhone is the best, most powerful hand held computing device ever imagined and, oh yes, it’s a sexy, sleek fashion statement that you can love with all your heart as well. Ditto on the last part for every Tesla also, from the Model 3 to the Cybertruck.
That mission is bigger than being a car maker, or battery manufacturer or even tech design firm. It’s a mission to replace the current, suicidal, Fossil Fuel based infrastructure with a sustainable one. Worldwide. Right now. Before it’s too late to matter.
Companies that have a higher mission than just “profit for shareholders” have not just a higher moral ground from which to operate but a true motivation that literally pulses like a beating heart throughout the enterprise. Often overlooked is the mission that Steve Jobs imbued into the soul of Apple and the higher mission of providing the best tools that technology is capable of.
Looking forward, for perhaps the first time in human history, the challenges are sharply defined, as are the methods and players in the game. Massive evil forces, created by humans must be countered by small and also equally massive forces just as human, oriented toward a better world and more, the best of all possible worlds.
In truth, within the total devotion and capitulation to a higher mission lies freedom, inner peace and, ultimately success and prosperity, potentially for us all.
Not a hard choice when compared to pain, suffering and, ultimately the extinction of all life on this planet.
In short, it’s Utopia or Oblivion, folks.
So, thank you Elon Musk, for showing us the steps to the dance, and for having the bravery to show us with those awkward, unselfconscious moves that, you too, are learning as you go.
Now we all just need to apply ourselves, like Greta Thunberg inviting Meatloaf to examine scientific evidence, to the task of finding the joy in changing everything that’s wrong with our world, starting with the energy infrastructure, and replacing it with a better, cleaner, less tainted one.
— 🌎 Positive Energy Action (@PosEnergyAction) January 7, 2020
There is a paradox here, though. See it? If we are running for our lives from the most fearsome danger we’ve ever faced, and we are not concerned about money, power or the trappings of fame, then why does it sometimes seem like a better life is so close we can almost reach out and touch it?
Tesla Roadster – Photo / Tesla
Because that’s the secret. If we did all dance like Elon, devote ourselves to a higher cause, and put aside our worldly squabbles over money, power and fame, maybe, just maybe, we will survive and prosper, beyond all our imaginings. And that stolen car? It’s a Tesla Roadster hitting on maximum torque in Ludicrous mode.
And with every discovery shared, solution compounded and mission surpassed, we can escape together and let go of the past’s villainous errors. With luck to find a future worth all our hopes and dreams.
New ad highlights the hypocrisy of the first family
Some of the many appalling and even disgusting facets of the Trump era are reflected in the primitive psychological tactics that emanate from any speech or off the cuff remark from the President. “Gaslighting“, “Whataboutism” and “I know you are but what am I” playground level taunts and name calling abound. And, above all, the tactic of projecting whatever you are accused of onto your enemies, no matter how ridiculous it appears. Like on July 4th when trump implied that Antifa was a “fascist” organization. How can a group with “anti” and Fascist” in the very name be accused of being the thing that they have clearly and overtly declared themselves to be against? Ask Trump.
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And now, in an apple-falling-not-far-from-the-tree moment of imbecilic genetic transference, Don Jr. employs all of the above in a recent twisted tirade on Fox. Unfortunately for him, the folks that call themselves the “Meidas Touch” were able to illustrate just how ridiculous and revealing this web of insanity really is. Take a look:
On a their web site in text accompanying the clip they added:
“The Trump children, propped up in this regime by the bizarre and shameless nepotism seen in banana republic dictatorships, represents the blend of incompetence, entitlement and cringeworthy hypocrisy that has propelled America into disaster we are now in under Trump.”
Along with the great work from The Lincoln Project and RVAT (Republican Voters Against Trump) anti-Trump, pro-Biden ads have been coming out almost daily. All using Trump’s own words and actions to show his various lies, his hypocrisy and downright creepiness in sharp focus with a view to ousting him in November.
Above: A truly creepy look at actual footage of Trump in various interviews and impromptu moments featuring Ivanka, and his ol’ convicted-sex-offender pal Jeffrey Edward Epstein. It’s astonishing how this old footage can make the Trump family look even worse and, yes, even more creepy, than the recent events touched on in the first video clip above. November 3rd can’t come soon enough, it would seem, for any of us who have witnessed these ads.
The Meidas Touch is not specifically a Conservative Republican organization, which the other two mentioned above are, but rather is headed by attorney Ben Meiselas, who has been involved in high profile cases involving civil rights and more, such as the lawsuit brought by Colin Kaepernick against the NFL.
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Only an illiterate thug with no concept of history would talk about people who are against Fascism in America as “terrorists”. Unfortunately, the media has joined in the hate parade and keeps stating the “fact” that “antifa” is a “far-far left” radical violent organization, and then mentioning various caveats to show they are not agreeing with the wannabe Fascist in the White House.
Many large news outlets have tried to give a “definitive” overview of the real situation regarding the violent elements of the recent unrest vs. the perception that is being pushed by the current administration. The picture news media paints is almost as warped as the government version.
Poster Art by Paramount Pictures
“Antifa” is short for anti-fascist” and, yes, there is a european history behind the resistance to the rise of fascist regimes leading up to World War II. Bizarrely, no mention is made in these “definitive” accounts of the fact that the Axis powers in Europe, Germany and Italy were in control of fascist dictators and that we, the Alliance, were the enemy of fascism and the heroic liberators of the people enslaved and killed by these dictators.
Although many have indirectly pointed to the similarities between the rise of Trump, or at least his attempted power grabs, and the early period of European history when both Hitler and Mussolini were on the rise.
They too outlawed “terrorists”, which was anyone who they believed were against them. They each had bands of thugs who were used to intimidate with illegal violence anyone that they perceived as a threat. Now we have a “private army” amassed by Bill Barr and an armed “militia” being egged on to use automatic rifles to intimidate elected officials in the Michigan state capitol and in other places.
And “antifa” are dangerous terrorists? Is that some kind of a joke?
High profile american patriots have an obligation to speak out – now
Not long ago Rachel Maddow made a speech on her show saying “The dark days are not coming, the dark days are here”. That was over six months ago and, as everyone knows, much darker days have come since.
What are we waiting for? Where are the people who can see the most obvious facts in front of their faces and then decide to stand up and declare: I am an american patriot and therefore, as has been the case throughout our storied history I stand against Fascism in any form at any time, anywhere in the world, especially here in the USA!
Where are the people who see what is happening before our eyes, journalists, celebrities, powerful public figures and politicians who are ready to say: Stop fascism and the attempt to create a fascist dictatorship now!
Do we want to wait for the country to be under marshall law and then watch while concentration camps are built to hold anyone who dares to call themselves against fascism, and therefore against the wannabe fascist in the White House?
Based on viewing social media video evidence such as the one above, along with official assessments, the two largest contingents of looters and criminals during the recent unrest across America were right wing confederates of Trump trying to start a race war and professionals, sometimes driving up in Rolls Royces and brand new Mercedes sedans, who are clearly not anti-fascists (unless they are very rich ones).
That is a point that should not even need to be debated. The point that matters is that being against fascism is the most pro-american and mainstream heroic stance anyone, from any part of society, can take and has been throughout our history.
Nonsense and lies that are dignified with any kind of measured response, rather than outright rejection, encourages dangerous propaganda that we can not afford to repeat, even to denounce
Where are the “good” fascist dictators? Where is the society that was improved by a fascist power structure? What kind of senseless idiocy is it to debate with someone, someone that has obvious designs on becoming some kind of fantasy dictator who has fascist tendencies, as to who the “real terrorist” is?
Perhaps this common sense “clear as the nose on your face” approach will not be taken seriously by the large corporate media outlets. After all, there is a consensus that “antifa is bad, just not as bad as Trump says”: that is the subtext of many articles being written about the insane pronouncement that Trump has “designated” antifa as a terrorist group.
There is no “debate” required in this discussion. Fascists are the enemy of all Americans and therefore being against fascism is being “for” America and the way of Peace and Justice.
Being against people who are against fascism is to be “for” fascism. If you are a politician talking about “rigged” elections and trying almost daily to incite riots in order to escalate state sponsored violence against peaceful protesters, your opinion of who is, or isn’t, a terrorist has been disqualified. Oh, and if you say racists are “very fine people” then you are standing in solidarity with Racism.
It is for the rest of us to decide who the “good guys” are and to stand together as one with them. Speaking out clearly as being against fascism and the wannabe fascist in our midst is the minimum requirement to patriotic citizenship in these chaotic and dangerous times.
In a recent update to the SpaceX web site, Elon Musk and crew added some detail and updates to the plans for passenger and satellite cargo travel using its developing rocket tech. Naturally both SpaceX Starlink Satellite Launches and work for hire missions for NASA and others have been happening on a regular basis.
All of these and other projects also all serve to push the development of the systems for longer term projects, goals and plans.
https://www.spacex.com/media/mission_reusability.mp4Video showing REUSABILITY – While most rockets are designed to burn up on reentry, SpaceX rockets can not only withstand reentry but can also successfully land back on Earth and refly again.
“You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great – and that’s what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It’s about believing in the future and thinking that the future will be better than the past. And I can’t think of anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars.”
— ELON MUSK, SPACEX
One that has a specific stated timeline is the Private Lunar Mission. First announced in the fall of 2018, Japanese fashion billionaire and art collector Yusaku Maezawa has purchased the fist ticket to orbit the moon on a SpaceX flight. The undisclosed price of the ticket will help fund the ongoing project to perfect the Starship and it’s rocket booster side-kick Super Heavy (formerly known as BFR) which, together, represent a reusable transportation system that SpaceX hopes will, one day soon, take passengers into orbit and on interplanetary missions.
Diagram / SpaceX
Those missions, starting with the week-long moon mission for Maezawa, will eventually include the first manned mission to Mars, with an inaugural flight currently projected to happen by 2024. An initial cargo only flight is penciled in for 2022.
Elon and SpaceX are certainly aware of the challenges of these incredibly ambitious plans and accelerated timelines.
https://www.spacex.com/media/DragonTrunk_Animation_Render_Desktop.mp4video animation: The Dragon spacecraft is capable of carrying up to 7 passengers to and from Earth orbit, and beyond. It is the only spacecraft currently flying that is capable of returning significant amounts of cargo to Earth, and will soon become the first private spacecraft to take humans to the space station.
The website details the plan for the potentially treacherous landing sequence once the Starship actually reaches Mars. This includes an entry into the Mars atmosphere, never before breached by a human, at 7.5 kilometers per second. These video simulations show the ideal plan for the Starship to conquer this task.
Earth to Earth Transportation System
The team of Starship and Super Heavy are also part of a planned Earth to Earth transportation system for long distance travel around the globe. With the advantages of leaving the earth’s atmosphere (for a short time based on the incredible speed of the system) where there is little to no friction and no weather or turbulence.
As can be seen in the table below, the average intercontinental commercial jet flight, such as London to Hong Kong, that currently takes 12 in-flight hours, would be reduced to 35 minutes. Basically this would mean that any distance on earth could be reached in an hour or less.
ROUTE
DISTANCE
COMMERCIAL AIRLINE
STARSHIP
LOS ANGELES TO NEW YORK
3,983km
5 hours, 25 min
25 min
BANGKOK TO DUBAI
4,909km
6 hours, 25 min
27 min
TOKYO TO SINGAPORE
5,350km
7 hours, 10 min
28 min
LONDON TO NEW YORK
5,555km
7 hours, 55 min
29 min
NEW YORK TO PARIS
5,849km
7 hours, 20 min
30 min
SYDNEY TO SINGAPORE
6,288km
8 hours, 20 min
31 min
LOS ANGELES TO LONDON
8,781km
10 hours, 30 min
32 min
LONDON TO HONG KONG
9,648km
11 hours, 50 min
34 min
“Rocket-lag” vs. Jet-lag, that’s a topic for a whole other article.
With all these plans, in addition to the missions to and from the space station and trips to host various payloads, it begs the question, what was NASA doing during the years from 1972, when the last moon mission was completed, until SpaceX was first contracted to assist.
And with all the private space exploration companies vying for position and invested in by both public and private funding, will this push be sustained throughout the 2020s?
With the Global Climate Crisis looming and various governments and private behemoths showing little regard for cooperation or or philanthropic behavior, the outcome and timeline of off-earth projects seem almost certain to be impacted by terrestrial obstacles, virtually every step of the way.
”Holy Grail” believed to be impossible before at least 2025 might now be on the way thanks to battery design improvements
Tesla has proven already that a well designed and engineered EV has many superior qualities compared to an equivalent ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle. Teslas have shown that they can last up to one million miles with far less maintenance.
While doing that they also have other features; silence, speed and acceleration, an on board computer with eventual over-the-air upgrades to full self-driving capabilities. Although the cars themselves, with no internal combustion engine parts to replace and no oil change every five thousand miles, are already able to run for a million miles, the battery, which is currently very expensive to replace, can not, as yet, last that long. The current lifespan for a Tesla Model 3 battery is 300,000 to 500,000 miles.
Model 3 drive unit & body is designed like a commercial truck for a million mile life. Current battery modules should last 300k to 500k miles (1500 cycles). Replacing modules (not pack) will only cost $5k to $7k.
While the initial cost for EV batteries has gone down a lot – from $1100 per kilowatt hour in 2010 to $156 per kWh in 2019 which is 87% less. In spite of this amazing drop – the elusive cost parity with ICE vehicles has been said to only be achievable when batteries reach $100 per kWh, the so-called Holy Grail of EVs.
Based on information gathered by Reuters from “people familiar with the matter” that is all about to be a quest of the past with the reality of an $80 per kWh “million mile battery” already being developed.
We’re going to have to push out the date or attendance will be very low. Maybe do in two parts: webcast next month & in-person event a few months later?
Battery will be the product of a 3-way Joint Venture with contributors from Tesla, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (China) and Jeff Dahn based at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia
The new low-cost long life battery will first be used for the Model 3 version manufactured for the Chinese market. The plan, according to sources that spoke anonymously to Reuters, is for an initial roll-out in China and later for the low cost Model 3 to be introduced into other markets, such as North America, for example.
The “million mile” moniker is an illustration of the long lasting life span of the battery design. Less obvious, however, are the potentially ground breaking application as a resource that can be used via Tesla Energy in energy storage products. With highly reliable battery packs lasting potentially up to three decades it will be possible for small for homeowners to have a backup source during outages, or a hybrid solution with solar panels combining with power from the grid as needed.
Battery stored solar generated energy can reduce costs or even be an income source when excess is sold back to public utilities. And, of course a complete off grid, solar and wind powered, fully sustainable system could be employed in large and small settings. A massive version of such a system is already in place at the Nevada gigafactory itself.
Power grid sized installations, such as a recent Hornsdale Power Reserve installation in Australia point toward the industrial solutions of the breakthrough technology.
These twin benefits of significant cost reduction and longer life, along with possible “re-purposing” for use in backs-up for the electric power grid are a combination that points toward a transformation of Tesla’s business model into that of a sustainable power company first and car company second.
Such a leap forward would put the company into the position of an energy provider such as PGE, with eventual added benefits to the planet once sustainable sources are ramped up.
As if all of this is not enough, the upcoming Starlink internet service, power via satellites being launched by Elon Musk’s “other” venture SpaceX, could provide internet connectivity at such an off-grid compound. Once these options are available, a highly functioning sustainable powered, globally connected living compound could be built virtually anywhere in the world.
The many features of such an independent energy and satellite communications option could create a truly decentralized dwelling system, further reducing survival and luxury costs.
Challenges remain yet the upcoming announcement nevertheless changes the outlook considerably
This highly ambitious project and these blockbuster potentials require many desperate elements to come together for this dream to be realized. One is the new, groundbreaking battery design which is the bombshell news being hinted at by Reuter’s unnamed sources.
Based on low-cobalt and cobalt-free battery chemistries, and the use of chemical additives, materials and coatings, the new design is projected to enable batteries to store more energy for longer periods, sources said. Additionally, nano-engineered materials are said to be a contributing factor in creating more bruise resistant and less damage prone due to rapid charging stresses. These improvements are said to make the “million mile” claim for the replacement cycle a reality.
Ramping up battery production methods will be necessary, both for reducing the costs via economies of scale and to keep up with the virtually unlimited demand for a Tesla EV with a million mile lifespan before the cost of battery replacement at a price point on par with or even below current ICE vehicles.
According to “hints” leaked by Musk in April, this will be achieved through new truly massive, highly automated “terafactories”. Based on the “gigafactory” concept which already has three in operation, in Nevada, New York State and Shanghai, China, with a fourth in Berlin, Germany, being built, the new battery manufacturing locations are planned to be thirty times larger than the current gigafactory in Nevada, which, at completion, was the largest factory ever built by square footage and second by volume.
In an interconnected world consensus happens fast when a new thing needs to be named
The coronavirus is, as we all know by now, properly named covid-19 or at least the novel coronavirus. Could even be the new coronavirus, which is what “novel” is meant to convey. As you also probably already know, it is not named after a Mexican beer, but rather the fact that, presumably under a microscope, the virus looks like a crown or “corona”. And the “19” in covid-19 stands for the year of discovery, 2019, not that it is the 19th pandemic or 19th strain of the virus (go now and tell Kellyanne Conway).
If you are watching an interview on the pandemic and an expert or pundit is opining they are probably an epidemiologist which is a person who studies epidemics and is a word, and a group of people, you don’t hear much about except when the whole world is in the middle of one.
As you read this you might be at home due to your state, city or county having issued a “stay-at-home order” which is a nice way of saying you are under lock-down. When you go out you will need a mask and, above all to practice social distancing. Oh, and that mask will theoretically need to be an N-95 medical grade one to protect not only others but you as well. But please don’t wear one as they are needed for medical professionals.
The N-95 is necessary because droplets coming from coughing, sneezing, breathing or even loud talking or singing (!) will be hanging in the air for many minutes. See illustration above for a graphic portrait off droplets in action.
Flattening the curve is a simple and yet complicated concept that has become part of folklore or at least our community consciousness. It refers not to stopping or conquering the virus, which is impossible, but to slowing the rate of new infections down to a tempo that is below the rate at which hospitals and government services can keep pace with the surge of new patients. Spreading the virus more slowly is the real goal of wearing masks, practicing social distancing and observing the stay-at-home orders.
What do we do during lockdown? Go shopping of course!
Also, we must all have at least a cursory understanding of the meaning of essential vs non-essential business and employment. Walmart is essential due to the huge grocery section and the much sought after paper products, but the areas where every other non-essential product are available remain open also. However, if your store looks like Walmart but has no grocery section you are non-essential.
Photo / Lynxotic
Amazon of course is the most essential business of all and it’s soon to be trillionaire owner can decide what products to favor with faster shipping and which to delay or try not to sell, even as they remain on sale. He owns our national supply chain now. but just be sure to use alcohol spray on the boxes and wait anywhere from 3 to 72 hours before opening. And when you wash your hands, which you must do many, many, many times a day be sure and sing happy birthday to yourself. Or set your timer for 20 seconds +.
Both gouging, which is a crime in many states but Amazon wants to be made into a federal crime so it can blame its individual marketplace sellers, and hoarding which everybody does, especially with paper products, are rampant and it’s just something to get used to.
After approximately 2 months, flattening the curve changes to F.U. to the Gov, as long as they are democrats
Anti-lockdown protests, which are never called anti-stay-at-home-order protests are also something to get used to. Noose imagery, nazi swastikas, calls to kill or lynch the governor and, naturally semi-automatic weapons with enough ammo cartridges to re-load at least half-a-dozen times are all ok, even inside the state capitol. Just be sure you are white. If so you will be designated as a “good person” by the guy in the White House.
We are all intimately familiar with that little town of 11 million residents in China they call Wuhan, and we know that they have both a notorious “wet-market”, Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where people occasionally also buy bats they plan to snack on, and we also know that the same little town has a, now famous lab where they had been studying coronavirus strains.
Depending on who you ask, the novel coronavirus, aka covid-19, had its origin in one of these two places and was released accidentally, or on purpose either by the chinese government or by the U.S. military and the they, or the bat eating customers and wholesalers are to blame for everything.
The coronavirus might kill you but when the pandemic is a pin prick to the largest bubble in history you will surely notice it
The outcome of all of this is still very mush uncertain, but the US government and the SBA have already issued stimulus checks, created the C.A.R.E.S. act, created programs such as the Paycheck Protection Program, The EIDL disaster loan program and beefed up unemployment payments by $600 per week, while extending the length in some cases that claims can last. This is all to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic, and, depending on who you ask is a recession or a depression and in any case is really, really bad and getting worse. This has created an unemployment spike as large as or larger than the 1930’s Great Depression peak and make the 2008 Financial Crisis look like a hiccup.
Oh, and they have spent already somewhere between $2-3 trillion dollars, not including the Federal Reserve‘s contribution to “infinite quantitative easing” and other measures. Las week the congress passed a bill for an additional $3 trillion of “stimulus” but this will change as the senate and the prez and not going to agree (not due to the size but because the “wrong” people will get the money).
A sequel to this glossary on the next chapter “post pandemic deflationary depression and words you will need to understand to survive” is in the works and will follow shortly, along with the eponymous depression itself. Cheers.
Not long ago it was a pledge of billions for the climate crisis, now $4 billion for “safety”. Where are the audited accounts?
Above: Photo Collage / Lynxotic
Funny thing about promises made by politicians and owners of public companies. Although truth will eventually come out due to public access to accounting, these are often so far in the future that virtually anything can be promised today with no need for a specific plan or transparent numbers to back them up.
On May 3rd, in a dramatic “you may want to sit down” moment Jeff Bezos announced that the company he runs, and is the principal shareholder of, would take all of the $4 billion in expected 2nd quarter operating profit and “invest” it in “COVID-related” costs:
“Under normal circumstances, in this coming Q2, we’d expect to make some $4 billion or more in operating profit. But these aren’t normal circumstances. Instead, we expect to spend the entirety of that $4 billion, and perhaps a bit more, on COVID-related expenses getting products to customers and keeping employees safe.”
Now those who follow Amazon news might remember that in February the online retail giant’s owner pledged $10 billion as a “donation” toward battling climate change, under the moniker “Bezos Earth Fund”.
Even as these ego boosting promises are helping with the image of this company, often otherwise described as “the grim reaper” in the press for its murderous behavior toward any potential competition, a cursory look beneath the surface quickly yields another story. The announcement on Friday suspiciously coincided with fallout from a WSJ article alleging that false information was given in testimony relating to Amazon’s well known extreme competitive behavior against its own so-called marketplace sellers. On the same day as the “generous” promise came to light the WSJ published a follow up piece indicating that Bezos has been “asked” to testify before Congress and to clarify what appears to be an attempted cover-up of the well known practice.
A long history of incredibly consistent behavior points to something lurking beneath the headlines
While we are digging into the weeds here it’s important to note that both the promised, not yet existent, $4 billion and the “pledge” to set up the “Bezos Earth Fund” are not binding in any way, but simply vague promises. It will be months and likely years before any solid information could come out as to just what the various monies will be spent on, if at all.
For example, Amazon has made it well known that it intends to take its “Grim Reaper” show to the health care industry in an attempt to cause the same kind of carnage that it achieved in the book retail and publishing industries, not to mention Diapers and countless other product categories. Who’s to stop this push into a new area to conquer from being funded by this “generous promise” of $4 billion even while stating that all of Q2 profit will be used for “protecting employees as this crisis continues”. Who will prevent that from happening? Yes, you have it right, no one.
Meanwhile, even as these lovely pledges and promises get the digital ink equivalent of a small ocean, the usual slash, burn and pillage continues in plain sight. Many of those same digital outlets crowing about the generosity of the great emperor of Amazon’s promise, just had their business models turned to something more suited to a cremation urn than the daily news shelf. Amazon Affiliate payments to media outlets, a mainstay keeping many news organizations afloat (barely) were suddenly slashed up to 80% this week. So, in other words, a huge constituency that created the success of the giant firm is once again being rewarded by almost certain financial collapse. Big surprise.
There are two that “win”: one is Amazon, second a bribed customer and all others are lured into a death trap
This warrants a deeper look into the process and train of thought that can be deduced from the recent facts, actions and events. Amazon’s income has exploded since the coronavirus crisis began; hence the anticipated $4 billion operating profit projection.
Warehouse workers ? A million allegedly working in almost sweatshop (or worse) conditions for slave wages. Do they benefit financially from this obscene windfall? Yes, they get, possibly, free masks. Perhaps a tiny pay raise for certain “teams”.
How about the marketplace sellers (you know the ones that Congress and the WSJ appear to believe have been systematically defrauded and cheated for decades) that generate nearly 60% of the gross income of the retail site? They will be rewarded with increased scrutiny, higher fees, higher costs and the usual brutal death camp treatment. Lower fees for the best among them? Never.
Ultimately, this charade is business as usual and par for the course from a company that did not get the nickname “Grim Reaper” for nothing. $14 billion for altruistic causes that represent selfless generosity towards others? That’s as likely as a Camel jumping through the eye of a needle.
full statement released by Amazon / Bezos:
From online shopping to AWS to Prime Video and Fire TV, the current crisis is demonstrating the adaptability and durability of Amazon’s business as never before, but it’s also the hardest time we’ve ever faced,” said Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO. “We are inspired by all the essential workers we see doing their jobs—nurses and doctors, grocery store cashiers, police officers, and our own extraordinary frontline employees. The service we provide has never been more critical, and the people doing the frontline work—our employees and all the contractors throughout our supply chain—are counting on us to keep them safe as they do that work. We’re not going to let them down. Providing for customers and protecting employees as this crisis continues for more months is going to take skill, humility, invention, and money.
If you’re a shareowner in Amazon, you may want to take a seat, because we’re not thinking small. Under normal circumstances, in this coming Q2, we’d expect to make some $4 billion or more in operating profit. But these aren’t normal circumstances. Instead, we expect to spend the entirety of that $4 billion, and perhaps a bit more, on COVID-related expenses getting products to customers and keeping employees safe.
This includes investments in personal protective equipment, enhanced cleaning of our facilities, less efficient process paths that better allow for effective social distancing, higher wages for hourly teams, and hundreds of millions to develop our own COVID-19 testing capabilities. There is a lot of uncertainty in the world right now, and the best investment we can make is in the safety and well-being of our hundreds of thousands of employees. I’m confident that our long-term oriented shareowners will understand and embrace our approach, and that in fact they would expect no less.
In Spite of the Serious Statistics, Some Locations are Resuming Habits from before the Pandemic
There is almost an air of celebration afoot. Beaches in Southern California are sunny and crowded as if this is just any premature springtime heatwave. The stock market futures are rising. It’s as if all of us just can’t take any more of the depressing news. So we just stop paying attention.
Unfortunately the virus is still alert and ready. And, more likely than not, there will be new cases reported a week or two from now, right on cue, after this moment passes. Officially the “Safer at Home” order in the Los Angeles area remains in effect until May 15th. Judging from the traffic and the “non-essential” businesses that are opening up there is an unofficial attempt to end to the so called “lock-down”.
It’s as if almost no one read the article about the large percentage of asymptomatic carriers of the virus on the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. Or the French navy’s flagship Charles de Gaulle, with over 1000 cases and counting. Or how in 1918 both San Francisco and Los Angeles ended quarantine precautions too soon and suffered a second wave, shortly after the first.
“Siren wails on November 21, 1918 signaled to San Franciscans that it was safe, and legal, to remove their masks. All signs indicated that the flu had abated. Schools re-opened, and theaters sought to make back the $400,000 they had lost during each of the six weeks they were closed… Barely two weeks after the celebratory removal of masks, new flu cases were reported. Five thousand new flu cases would surface in December 1918 alone.”
Headlines are Anticipating an End to the Pandemic even as the Experts Warn there is A Long Road Ahead
If you are reading articles about how States are reopening and America is getting back to business, be careful. Think about those sailors that were spreading the virus to each other thinking they were not sick. Oh, and by the way, as of April 20th, 8 of the crew members from the Theodore Roosevelt were hospitalized and one has died.
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What all of this adds up to is that covid-19, a.k.a. the novel coronavirus is very, very contagious. And since it is impossible to know if you or I will be asymptomatic carriers or among those that become seriously ill, the best, most prudent advice is to continue precautions indefinitely. Taking care to prevent spread and prevent becoming infected ourselves is the least we can do. Celebration we can do anytime. As long as we are around for the beautiful day that a vaccine and an effective treatment are found.
The photo above, taken from “Deadliest Enemy’s” cover, says it all. The image depicts a “real life” scenario showing how this potentially deadly virus can spread, for example in an airport. Of course, in real life the “droplets”, as they are now known, are not florescent yellow. Too bad. If they were at least we could clearly see how dangerous it is to be in a crowded area while this disease, which currently has no treatment or vaccine, is on the loose.
Mark Olshaker and Michael Osterholm’s bestselling book “Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs” is more relevant today than ever before. Just as in San Francisco, in 2018, we are about to enter a phase where the “all clear” will be announced, setting the stage for a potential second wave.
“Siren wails on November 21, 1918 signaled to San Franciscans that it was safe, and legal, to remove their masks. All signs indicated that the flu had abated. Schools re-opened, and theaters sought to make back the $400,000 they had lost during each of the six weeks they were closed… Barely two weeks after the celebratory removal of masks, new flu cases were reported. Five thousand new flu cases would surface in December 1918 alone.”
Years before COVID-19 was on the map author Mark Olshaker and disease epidemiologist Michael Osterholm collaborated to write a book exploring the (then hypothetical) concept of an infectious disease spreading across the modern world. The final product outlines how easily such a disease could spread in our globalized society, how governments and scientists might react to it, and what a bio-fallout would mean for cultures and individuals across the planet.
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Obviously, such a situation is no longer theoretical. Olshaker and Osterholm’s concepts are in fact quite pertinent during the coronavirus pandemic. Their illustration of geo-political and medical scrambling to fight off a never-before-seen threat is eerily astute.
Fourteen chapters make up the book, each one investigating a different infectious disease from the past three decades. It goes into detail about how the world handled (or failed to handle) acute respiratory syndrome, AIDS/HIV, Zika, Ebola, and many other outbreaks. Even while studying the past, though, the authors keep a pulse on the future, constantly thinking about how we can learn from previous situations, and consider what those situations might look like on larger, perhaps planetary scales.
Olshaker and Osterholm conclude that major diseases can fall into four different threat levels—pathogens of pandemic potential, pathogens of critical regional importance, bioterrorism, and endemics. Of course, diseases can evolve along this spectrum, but the authors offer advice on how we can respond to them on each step of the way.
They liken curing or preventing diseases to solving puzzles. There are more pieces than one might expect, and the final product is somewhat of a mystery. The solution will not come solely out of a lab; it will take cooperation on many fronts including politicians, healthcare providers, medical and pharmaceutical professionals, and of course, everyday people who are vulnerable and instrumental in the spread or containment of an illness.
“Deadliest Enemy” is part history, part current events, and part memoir. The authors, offer up their own experiences in the field—most notably Osterholm’s disturbing eye-witness account of La Crosse encephalitis—while tapping into something larger than any single person. The book met high praise upon release, and the CDC recognizes it as a significant contribution to the world of written work on diseases.
Plenty of reasons for Pessimism but Huge Sudden Changes are where we’ll find the greatest Opportunities
The film clip above, featuring the Steven Spielberg directed film based on the sci-fi book by Ernest Clines, is built on a fairly familiar and, lately, believable premise. In the year 2045 (or sooner from the looks of things) all our human foibles and follies have devastated the world landscape, both physically and economically. Global warming has taken a toll and disasters we now know so well, such as pandemic outbreaks and economic catastrophes, are recent history and shape the reality at hand.
The story takes place in the world of young virtual reality explorers. And from there the plot is a pretty standard fantasy exploration of the potentials and drama that this backdrop produces.
This and other dystopian works of fiction are suddenly ringing true in a new way, and on different levels, since the world has been on lock-down as we battle the novel coronavirus. There is a feeling of a world on the verge of collapse, with an unknown and very uncertain future, and talk of an economic malaise with almost no historical precedent about to unfold, if you accept worst case scenarios.
Yet, using wild flights of imagination and optimism there are hidden bright spots and silver linings that might arise, not accounted for in this film or other works of dystopian art.
“Ready Player One” promo still image / Warner Bros.
An Idea so Big and Radical it is Hard to Wrap our Heads Around it no matter how hard we try
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What if the twin terrors of the covid-19 Pandemic and the possible economic collapse that may follow are actually a kind of gift to the world and humanity? What if this is the mother of all opportunities, like some wildly fantastic movie plot, where the wake up call from the cosmos comes at exactly the perfect moment to, well, wake us all up?
It’s easy to forget that, before we all became consumed in pandemic survival mode, there were already enormous changes and challenges afoot, a they were not small potatoes.
Global warming and climate related disasters were beginning to take center stage in political and social thought. Greta Thunberg was Time’s Person of the Year, and, for the first time, climate deniers (generally paid shills for the oil industry) were no longer being taken seriously.
All that now seems like a distant memory, but what has changed? A lot and also nothing. The threat of global warming and the urgency to stop carbon emissions and begin a transition to sustainable energy is no less pressing, regardless of our current preoccupation with stopping the pandemic.
Skys around the world have turned blue and clear while traffic is a fraction of the previous norm
Though many have warned the pollution and carbon burning will resume with a vengeance, once the quarantines are lifted, there is nevertheless a psychological effect of seeing and experiencing the beauty of clean air and reduced traffic that is fascinating. Eerily similar to scenes in the film 12 Monkeys, wild animals roam freely in urban centers.
Like a good omen or an invitation to positive change, the idea that nature can bounce back so quickly could be seen as a clarion call to change. Of course, a year from now we could see a world where fossil fuels are even more entrenched, due to economic desperation, where societies take great strides backwards in the ability to communicate and all the problems from the past and present accelerate into a final snowball bound for hell.
But what if something else happens?
What if the drastic measures, like the world wide lock-downs, and the economic stimulus actions attempting to stave off the potential economic catastrophe, indicate the potential for entire nations and even the entire world to work together in times of great need?
Virtual and Enhanced Communication as Tool for Crisis Adaptation
One of the interesting and unforgettable earmarks of the current crisis lifestyle is the switch in our lives from “real” lives to internet lives and virtual meetings and events. TV shows are staging networked broadcasts using FaceTime and Zoom, with the various actors and talking heads streaming from their private quarantine stations. We communicate with each other privately using the same technologies and non-contact methods.
What if this foreshadows a revolutionary change in how we use technology to improve our lives, accelerate communication, increase productivity and prevent the future from being an ecological disaster of biblical proportions?
What if all of us learning to adapt to a life with less unnecessary travel, while at the same time studying and inventing solutions for those problems is exactly what we need to be doing? What if we all need to collaborate on ways to stop the spread of disease, certainly, but also need to find ways to seamlessly transition to solving the bigger underlying pre-existing issues in order to save ourselves and our planet?
What if we were all forced to stay inside and use our computers to communicate. And what if we were forced to learn new “jobs” and ways to survive financially? And what if we could engage people around the world to work from home solving the real problems facing humanity, instead of flying and driving around, burning carbon, chasing the latest greed-driven suicide gold rush?
Ideas like universal basic income will not be optional when 50% of the world is unemployed. But if the income generated by the robots and the energy produced by solar, wind and other clean, sustainable energy sources are available and not in the hands of corrupt politicians, Bezos and Zuckerberg, and the fossil fuel companies, then why not?
These kinds of “radical” solutions will have all sorts of political and greed-driven opposition, of that you can be sure. But, as with the coronavirus, when faced with an insurmountable obstacle, like a rapidly spreading deadly virus that does not spare victims just because they have money or power, things change fast. Really fast.
I have always said, climate change deniers will stop trying to convince people it’s a hoax once Miami and New York are underwater. In a different way, we are already there. What we are living through is like a test run and a wake up call that can help us to prepare for the real and necessary changes to come.
Having the Future Thrust Upon you is not as bad If you Look Forward to Change
So why not make the most of it? Many people are. Reading books, particularly serious books for learning new ideas and thinking outside the box, are having an online sales boom. People are using the time and freedom to set their own schedule and goals, and considering career paths and constructive engagement in ways they might have never otherwise even considered.
In this scene from the original “Matrix” film the writers sub-consciously show us the horrors of the future – but instead what they show is a symbolic representation of the present and the past. Humans are imprisoned for life in “farms” and live only to produce energy – the food fed to babies locked in pods is a sticky black goop said to be the liquified remains of the dead, but is, clearly just a very familiar substance already enslaving us all: crude oil.
Perhaps, looking back from a better future made possible by this pandemic, we can see a reality where the greatest obstacles to change were the addiction to failed behaviors, failed infrastructures and suicidal greed that was considered “normal” in a dying world. If a larger force makes those things impossible or less viable then it should be welcomed with open arms.
There is an existing world infrastructure based on fossil fuels and greed that has been artificially propped up by political and economic forces for far too long. Now that entire system is collapsing on itself. The coronavirus is just a pin prick to the bubble of stupidity and greed that has been there all along.
Those of us that can see and imagine a future, not built around and based on that failed system, will have the opportunity to use our computers and virtual communication systems, primitive as they are at this stage, to communicate with one another and discuss ways to find a new beginning. That new beginning is already starting with blue skys and clean air across the world. Leaders not motivated by greed and yet wielding power like Elon Musk are putting enormous energy into solving the carbon burning dilemma and replacing it as quickly as possible with sustainable energy.
The economic upheaval to come must be seen as an opportunity to replace the old structures with new and better solutions. The recent extreme acts of the government show at least a willingness to try things never before attempted. Many will not work. Meanwhile, enormous, radical change is no longer a science fiction dream but an unavoidable reality.
Let’s embrace the dream and face the future with the wildly optimistic idea that changes for the future do not have to be dystopian. They can be Utopian. Why should we settle for anything less?
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Anti-trust Actions and Consumer Frustration Building for Years Coming to a Head in Post-Pandemic World
A groundswell of dissatisfaction bordering on outrage, particularly in Europe, built to a peak by the end of 2019. Lawsuits, investigations, protests and more lay siege on the biggest of the big tech giants. Google, Facebook and Amazon were at the forefront of much of the turmoil.
Judgements, convictions and fines levied against google included a whopping $1.7 billion fine in the European Union for violating antitrust regulations involving unfair advertising practices. The E.U. had already convicted the giant search company twice for similar violations in its business practices. The total fines as of the Match 2019 judgement totaled 9.3 billion imposed by the E.U. alone. While this may be pocket change to a trillion dollar company with a virtual monopoly in search in many parts of the world, it also indicates and impacts a rising awareness of the disturbing anti-competitive behavior of the tech giant.
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Both Facebook and Amazon have been similarly targeted for various anti-trust violations and non-competitive behaviors and were fined accordingly. Although in some ways less targeted for traditional anti-trust violations to date, Amazon, has been increasingly scrutinized and investigated for its methods of market domination. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was quoted in a televised speech stating that “Amazon destroyed the retail industry”. Amazon’s complex structure and claim to “only” account for 5% of retail sales (and 50% of online retail) make traditional monopolistic behavior claims more difficult to prove. Antitrust experts have called the massive online company a monopsony instead, which can mean having a majority power over suppliers rather than consumers. A similar set of issues and concerns was the focus of famous antitrust battles against the A&P Grocery chain during the Great Depression with a judgement against the giant finally rendered in 1946.
Also recently, the Wall Street Journal published a disturbing story detailing how sellers on Amazon were able to sell products sourced from dumpsters, clean them up and pass off as new. This was a tip-of-the-iceberg moment opening up inquiries into the state of the “3rd party marketplace” which represents more than 50% of Amazon’s revenue.
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University
After the Pandemic Troubles Likely to Remain for Tech Behemoths
Now, as of the date of this writing the confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. total over five hundred thousand cases with over one hundred thousand deaths worldwide. The U.S. death toll, at over 2.3k , has surpassed every other country, including China (although the numbers coming out of China may not be reliable). The number of cases and the death toll has not yet peaked, according to experts, and Lock-downs across the country are likely to continue for weeks, even months longer.
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Although this situation effectively postpones government investigations and county actions against the giants, public anger and frustration, particularly with Amazon appears to be on the rise. Low paid warehouse workers for Amazon have staged walk outs and protests, delivery times have lengthened dramatically, the newly launched Amazon branded delivery system was cancelled and overall chaos appears on the rise.
None of these or any other side-effects of the pandemic and the lock-downs, such an an increase in streaming and online use in general is likely to be a positive public relations win for any of these massive companies. The trend of the last several years is likely to not only continue but intensify as the world slowly emerges from a state of quarantine shock and gradually tries to find a path to a new business as usual.
Meanwhile, enough time has elapsed that not only articles but books about the Big-Tech backlash and the problems that have been clearly identified in the business models of these companies have been published. Many are zeroing in on the negative impact of these enormous companies on society, the job market and small businesses in particular as they snowball into larger and more dominating versions of themselves .
We have featured a few on this page but they are being published literally as I write this article, and we will continue to catalog and update the subject on our sister site Cherrybooks.
We are all gradually emerging from a state of shock. Even if we have no symptoms we see people saying, irresponsibly, that “eventually” somewhere between 50% and 100% will have contracted the novel coronavirus. One the other hand some of us, the brave, such as Idris Elba, who says he is still asymptomatic, choose to use this time to reflect on even bigger issues facing our planet.
What can be bigger than this pandemic? No need to look any further than the climate crisis, which up until sometime in February, was close to the top trending issue we were all very preoccupied with.
And for good reason. While the death estimates for the coronavirus are very frightening the climate crisis has the potential not only to affect or infect the lives of 100% of the world it will end it if we do not act.
Idris Elba in a publicity still from “The Mountain Between Us”
Big Problems need Big Thinkers and Brave Ideas
Along with other big thinkers, Idris Elba is on to something. Why not take this time to find ways to survive, but also put the energy we all have at our disposal into realigning our thinking towards a better way to live as a species on this planet. If it helps to see this as a message or even and attack by the much maligned and mistreated planet earth, and if that inspires us to dig deeper and, while staring into the abyss represented by the pandemic, so be it.
So much the better. Stay at home workers might be better off never going into an office high rise again. I know the planet will choke on less carbon if millions of people stop commuting. We have known that for 50 years. Software needs to grow, our ability to communicate via networked human communication systems, a.k.a. the internet, needs to improve radically and at a mind-bending pace. Why? Because, only when we change everything we do an how, can we avoid surviving something like this worldwide disease threat and then suddenly finding ourselves facing something even worse. Let’s inspire each other to dig deep and find ways to stop that scenario from happening.
In her latest instagram post, created from her Quarantine with husband Tom Hanks in Australia, Rita Wilson calls it Quarantine Stir Crazy – which is far nicer than turning into a Homicidal Maniac… but then she’s a nice and talented lady who happens to be married to Tom Hanks. While Idris Elba is writing his own Sci-fi script, and along with all the rest of us, concurrently living it – he is also spinning out extremely thoughtful, even deep, ideas while face-timing with Oprah:
“One of the upsides of this whole drama is that we are forced to think together as a race. Our world has been taking a kicking. We have damaged our world and it’s no surprise that our world is reacting to the human race.”
“It is no surprise that a virus has been created that is going to slow us down, and ultimately make us think differently about our world and ourselves. For me, that’s a stand-out thing that is really obvious. This is almost like the world’s cry out.”
“Like: ‘Hey, hey, hey – you are kicking me and what you’re doing is not good, so we will get rid of you.’ “As any organism would do, (the world) is trying to get rid of an infection, and maybe this is it for the world.”“As any organism would do, (the world) is trying to get rid of an infection, and maybe this is it for the world.”
Idris Elba, in facetime chat with Oprah while in quarantine in London
End of Day Bounce-back perhaps triggered by Passage of Aid Package
In spite of unprecedented intervention from the Federal Reserve and Congress the markets continue to plunge, generally every other day, in what has become a volatile and, for many, alarming pattern.
Intraday, the Dow dropped to more than 2000 points lower, for the second time this week. At moment in time the level was below where the Dow sat on January 20th, 2017 when Trump was inaugurated.
Neither the two rate cuts, the second one being a massive 1% “surprise” (which sent rates to zero for the first time in history) intervention on Sunday, nor the trillion dollar stimulus package pushed forward by the White House, appears to have had any significant effect on the consistently declining share prices.
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The Senate today passed the congress approved relief package, which provides for free coronavirus testing and paid emergency leave, and is expected to be signed into law by the President.
As we have pointed out in previous posts, while the novel coronavirus is getting 100% of the credit for the unwelcome bear market and the attendant fears, the market swoon and the pandemic could also be parallel events without any direct causal connection.
Naturally the companies and sectors such as travel which are directly and negatively affected have had large hits to their stock prices based on the catastrophic business outlook.
On the other hand there are companies and business that could even benefit from the shift of economic activity necessitated by the preventive measures that are being universally implemented. For those companies it is the underlying bear market sentiment that can and will, in all likelihood, drag them down along with the rest.
Oil Continues to Plummet as Likely Halt to the Travel Industry Looms Large
The oil shock as mirrored in Exon (XOM) and U.S. Oil (USO) shares continues in spectacular fashion falling over 10% and 16% respectively. This can be seen as a secondary shock in the cascading price depressions influences initially by the production increases used by Saudi Arabia and Russia to start an all out price war, and now being hit by the virtual shutdown of the travel industry. The initial shockwaves reverberated sending the crude prices down 30% while the losses in the socks (and ETF) above are adding to the depressed levels.
Delta Airlines (DAL) was down even more on the outlook for the travel industry dropping an incredible 26.73% today alone. At $23.02 it is hard to believe that the stock was over $63 two days ago. Pending bailout aside, this is indicating that airline bankruptcies are now beyond probable and verging on a strong likelihood. Presumably a bailout would turn the stock price around, but potentially not shield it completely from the bear market across-the-board progression.
Naturally, after crowing and bragging at every uptick and new all-time high in the markets for more than three years, Trump is placing the “blame” for current intensely downward trajectory squarely on the “chinese” coronavirus and attempting to avoid any responsibility for the state of the markets, economy or anything at all on planet earth for that matter.
Naturally, in an election year this is to be expected. At the same time the reality that this bear market has only just begun, the all time high was little more than a month ago on February 12th, does not bode well for his chances, likely against Joe Biden, in the general election this November.
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Bear has begun and shows no signs of Returning to Cave anytime soon
Historic is hardly the word for it. At times like these it seems like we have to repeat to ourselves “it’s just stock prices”. The VIX, a measure of “fear” in colloquial terms, rose 40% to hit the highest point in history at 80, two points above the level that it was at on two previous occasions. Both of those previous occasions were during the 2008 financial crisis.
The unique fact in the mix, this time around, is that these extreme readings in the fear gauge and the obvious volatility that has the Dow up and or down one thousand to three thousand points on any give day and it’s almost “normal” is all happening barely a month from the all time high that was reached on Feb 12th.
And therein, as they say, lies the rub. The bear market that started last week, based on the common but meaningless measurement of a 20% drop from that high, likely has a long time yet to go. Naturally there will be ferocious short covering rallies and even, eventually, slow days without mega up or down moves. But just because the percentages from the high are large, or because the VIX is at its all time high, does not mean that the bear market will be over soon.
The novel coronavirus is clearly a serious event and will cause disruption both economically and in the disruption of our daily lives, but the bear market that was, in truth, long overdue would have happened eventually in any case as bear markets always follow bull markets eventually. The concern is that the remedies and actions by the Fed and the political establishment never addressed the underlying causes and weaknesses of the entire system during the 2008 crisis, dooming us all to re-live that terrible time, potentially with an even more extreme set of circumstances.
Let’s hope that both the health crisis and the parallel financial crisis will be less dangerous and less extreme than it would appear on a day like this one.
As virtually everyone is aware by now the second biggest story of the week (third?) has been the literal deluge of shopping crowds converging on grocery and big-box stores buying large quantities of water, paper products, disinfectants and, more recently, food staples and whatever else is not nailed down.
Interviews with company presidents that manufacture paper products have shown that this is truly panic buying as the apparent shortages are based not on a lack of supply or the ability to produce more, but on the logistical difficulty in getting the shelves stocked fast enough.
“There is not some big underground warehouse like in ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark,’ where there is all this toilet paper sitting around in case it is needed”
Dan Clarahan, president of United Converting,quoted in the NY Times
Instead people are literally filling their closets with excess paper, more than they can use in a year, all due to psychological reactions to the uncertainty of the overall situation. We as humans are notoriously bad at calculating needs and usage of supplies and making time based buying decisions.
Paper aisle of a discount store today in Los Angeles. Photo / Lynxotic
Case in point: the box of tin-foil above, which is admittedly a 500 ft roll meant for restaurant use (bought at Costco) is, for all intents and purposes, an antique. I bought it for around $15 in 2012. It’s not gone yet.
I am not, as you can see, an industrial grade user of tin-foil. However, this box has been used several times a week for various household refrigerator storage tasks for 8 Years!
Without getting into the fine mathematics of how long, per person, a roll of toilet paper should last (including all the minutia such as the length of the roll and how many “layers of comfort” are included) grabbing shopping carts full is likely not a necessity, even if practicing social distancing for a month or two.
“Empty” shelves at Los Angeles discount store – Photo / Lynxotic
And then what about food? This photo is of “shockingly empty” shelves in the meat section of a discount store in Los Angeles, today. What’s the first thing you see? What I see is just how many great things to eat are readily available, still, on these empty shelves.
So, all in all, I guess its called “panic” for a reason. Because it’s not about “reason” but rather that lack thereof. Just as with paper products food supplies are not in any huge danger of total collapse. You just might have to choose a different entrée for a time or two. Shelves are being restocked as fast as the stores can muster, but the speed, and in particular the amount per person, of the buying is making it impossible to physically get the goods into place soon enough.
Teleconferencing, Cloud apps, Work-from-home and the carbon conundrum
And, while on the subject of what’s not-as-bad as it seems, interestingly many common behaviors that were considered necessary, up until the coronavirus became a danger when combined with those practices, such as the 4oz limit on liquids taken on to an aircraft are being phased out. When people were allowed, starting recently, to take 12oz bottles of hand sanitizer onto flights, literally nothing bad happened.
And what about working from home, as has been almost universally adopted by major tech companies such as Amazon, Twitter, Apple, etc. Many are saying this could, and should, be a permanent change and that the don’t think that the practice of commuting to work will ever be the norm again.
Wait… what? So, along with having oil shoved down our throats (or at lest into our gas tanks) by the fossil fuel industry for half a century longer than technologically necessary, we have been commuting and destroying the planet for no reason at all?
Surprisingly positive and even optimistic signs are already appearing like this everywhere – green shoots of the new season of change. Ands change, radical change, is the common denominator.
Electric cars were driving around London as early as 1884, but it took Elon Musk and Tesla to finally take the idea of owning one to the mainstream. A car with an internal combustion engine created in 1934 got over 30 MPG, could reach speeds upwards of 90 mph and could seat 11. It’s no accident that these technologies were stifled for all these years. Ask Putin and MBS.
Living in a Box might help us to think Outside the Box
So, without putting too fine a point on it, a lot of good things are already potentially coming out of the massive changes underfoot – not just our fight to escape the worst of the coronaviruses potential, but the economic fallout, which is only partially related, and the coming shift in thinking about, well, everything.
The reality is, from Climate Change and carbon overload to corruption in government and big business, the biggest changes needed are possible if the old ways just disappear, or are swept away, in order for existing technological potential to be realized. And what better time for that to happen than now?
Act as if ye have faith and faith shall be given to you
We are all so often lost. Feeling lost and wondering what to do. We run to the stores and try to race against one another for the chance to hoard things we don’t really need. But, perhaps, just as toilet paper won’t protect you from the novel coronavirus, even bigger issues such as climate change can only begin to be solved once we find a way to live in a totally different way.
”Well…You know, so much of the time we’re just lost. We say, “Please, God, tell us what is right. Tell us what is true.”
I mean there is no justice. The rich win; the poor are powerless. We become tired of hearing people lie. And after a time we become dead, a little dead.
“The Verdict”
What way? That is unknown. Big changes are coming, like it or not. But changes don’t always mean worsening circumstances. We might have the solutions right under our noses. That tin-foil might last longer than we expected. Accepting, even embracing change might reveal a chance for better things to come. Learning not to burn fossilized plant matter to go to an office to work on a computer that you also have at home. Believing in our ability as humans to find solutions, and for those solutions to be brought into the light of day, without being obstructed or suppressed for greedy, stupid reasons.
…But today you are the law. You are the law, not some book, not the lawyers, not a marble statue, or the trappings of the court. See, those are just symbols of our desire to be just. They are, in fact, a prayer, I mean a fervent and a frightened prayer.
The next big challenge, which we as a planet are clearly not yet prepared to face, is climate change and the environmental damage wrought by “man”. What if interconnected human communications, enhanced by software and the internet, can play a roll in changing the way we live – and by doing that changing the equation that has been a negative one for over a century? That could be a building block toward not just survival but to a new way to prevail and prosper.
In my religion, they say, “Act as if you had faith; faith will be given to you.”
If we are to have faith in justice we need only to believe in ourselves and act with justice. See, I believe there is justice in our hearts.”
Words by David Mamet – Performed by Paul Newman in Sidney Lumet’s, ‘The Verdict
The most talked about car in 2019 has been Tesla’s Model 3, an electric vehicle from Tesla that is sleek, modern looking, and highly desirable. In Tesla’s latest quarter alone, the company has sold nearly 80,000 Model 3s, sustaining it as the most popular EV on the market. This is not Tesla’s only achievement for the year. The company’s Cybertruck and Semi have received copious attention; its Model X and Model S continue to be popular; and consumers are eagerly awaiting 2020’s releases of the Model Y and Roadster.
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Based on its title, David Enrich’s new book “Dark Towers” might sound like an appendix to the nine part horror-fantasy series that Stephen King wrote between 1982 and 2012. In reality, though, Enrich’s book is a true story of financial corruption, with the full title “Dark Towers: Deutsche Bank, Donald Trump and an Epic Trail of Destruction.”
Nevertheless, the tale is just as riveting as any novel, and is perhaps even darker than any work of fiction.
Above: An empty Las Vegas Blvd. March 7, 2020 – Photo / Monique Ly
Are there Layers of Meaning in Today’s Ocean of Fear that belie a Bright Spot hidden Beneath?
If you are, like me, someone who reads articles on your phone or iPad, you probably noticed that the news cycle has turned to 24/7 coronavirus coverage. And why not? There are dangers to be warned of, statistics changing hour by hour and, inadvertently or surreptitiously, products to be hawked and sold.
“Forewarned is Forearmed” goes the saying and prevention sounds fine, to whatever degree possible. Wash your hands, stay 6ft feet away, stock up on paper and water (?), stop traveling, etc etc. We seem to be taking these admonitions to heart.
However, if you are like me, you are also wondering if the deluge of articles and advice are not somehow toxic in and of themselves. Are you feeling exhausted after reading a hundred or so? And can’t being exhausted and fearful promote infection in an otherwise healthy host?
Fear and Prepping in Las Vegas: a Gonzo Silver Linings Playbook
In the city that lives on Trade Shows and Tourists what does it look like in the moments just prior to the pandemic finally receiving its rightful moniker? If you browse the news you’ve seen the headlines, everything is preparing to be cancelled, from movies to concerts to sporting events and so on. Not to mention meetings and events from the two-point-five trillion dollar trade show industry.
Apparently, this is based on the assumption, possibly correct, that at some point, the entire world will look like China, where the streets are empty and 46 million people are quarantined. Really? Is that even possible?
Today in Vegas I had a foretaste of what we could be headed for. Walmart – panic buying à la mode with empty shelves and all the usual scenes of confused people doing what first instinct dictates after ingesting the news.
But beyond hunkering down what else is happening? Well, deals for travel and especially casinos are starting to emerge, big time. Your fearless scribe has hunkered down in a corner luxury suite for a modest “resort fee” of $38 per night. Next I will brave the wilds of the LV night to gain insight into the current state of preparedness on the monorail and throughout the dangerous casino floors…
View from my $38 Penthouse Luxury Suite – Photo / Lynxotic
Near the Walmart a man stood next to his bike, which was made for a child with tiny wheels, dressed in rainbow colors and looking around 40, an assessment perhaps tainted by the bike and the outfit. As I attempted to look busy and walk by anonymously, he suddenly perked up and, apropos of nothing, gushed, “I have to brag, as a photographer, this is really fantastic!”. As the only person within earshot, I felt compelled to respond and, as he rapidly approached, holding up his iPhone 6s and pointing it into my face. “Wow, nice, clouds can be amazing” I stammered looking at the admittedly decent cloud shot that he was so enthused about.
POV Reactions to the New Normal LV Strip-style on a Saturday Night
This, of course, was his cue to jump into a “conversation” which went forward too fast and too deep for my trying-to-keep-walking-anonymously plan. “I was in Vegas a long time but then my girlfriend had a baby” he machine-gunned at me, “then she said we had to move to Des Moines”. “Des Moines, Des Moines, that’s the only option”, I sensed a dive even deeper into the OCD rant was coming, “Baby looked exactly like the Gerber baby, ya know, so I had to go”. As he spoke we were dancing. I had read, like you, that 6ft was the requisite distance for safety nowadays, so as he continually leaned in, I kept backing up, ending up an average 4ft as he kept leaning and I kept backpedaling.
“He doesn’t seem sick, I thought, as I scanned his clothes for signs of homelessness or disease, “maybe he’s just a harmless nut” I thought as I danced the 6ft dance. Struggling for a fitting rejoinder for this situation, something bland that wouldn’t encourage him to get deeper into his Gerber baby, Iowa adventure with his mommy girlfriend story, “Iowa’s an interesting place too” I said as blandly as possible, thinking of the summer I spent in Fort Dodge (not very interesting in reality).
Above: Photo / Monique Ly
His close-talker persistence got more intense, leaning in aggressively for the coup de grace, “You know what they told me that Iowa means?” Me: leaning about 3.5 feet away, him: leaning into my face as best he could, “Idiots Outside Walking Around” was the inevitable punchline, as he smiled a satisfied Cheshire Cat smile.
As subtly as possible I turned, also smiling weakly, saying “yea, I can image, and have a good one, buddy”.
As I walked away from him toward the monorail station I wondered how I would learn to maintain a 6ft distance at all times from now on? Was that even possible? And if he sneezed at me from 4.5 feet? How can I forget now about the Gerber baby in Des Moines?
Blissfully isolated on the escalator up to the tram, I enjoyed the fresh, presumably clean air, and wondered about health and sanity. I could almost imagine normalcy as I prepared myself mentally for the journey back to my $38 luxury penthouse. On the platform there was a gaggle of typical party-style-revelers, and, to my delight, they all appeared to be 18-22 years of age. In my “research” I had seen the statistics, speculation perhaps, that young people and children were unlikely candidates for Coronavirus fatality, although they could still conceivably be carriers…
Seeing their obvious health and high energy antics was somehow a sudden, stark reminder that we all really want to survive for a reason. To live life itself.
Looking out toward the same beautiful watercolor, golden hour sunset sky I had enjoyed earlier in the Gerber-baby-daddy’s photo, I inhaled deeply, felt the balmy Las Vegas 72° evening air and came upon a comforting thought; Oh, sweet resilience, your name is golden.
